# The 2018 Road to the Oscars **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [December 12, 2018, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2018-road-to-the-oscars/826007 "2018-12-12T18:05:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2019, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2018-road-to-the-oscars/826007/41 "2019-01-28T19:55:30Z")
On the other hand, at least it was broadly popular. In 1982 (I think), three of the Best Picture contenders were Gandhi, Tootsie and E.T. Gandhi won, of course, and while it was a great epic, it was probably seen by fewer people than the other two. And certainly the other two are much more re-watchable. Similarly, Roma might be the prestige epic, but is it that watchable multiple times? Is it that broadly popular? Plus I’m not a member of the Academy but I am biased against movies that didn’t get widely released. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2019, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2018-road-to-the-oscars/826007/42 "2019-01-28T20:18:04Z")
> [@Dewey\_Finn](#): > > On the other hand, at least it was broadly popular. In 1982 (I think), three of the Best Picture contenders were Gandhi, Tootsie and E.T. Gandhi won, of course, and while it was a great epic, it was probably seen by fewer people than the other two. And certainly the other two are much more re-watchable. Similarly, Roma might be the prestige epic, but is it that watchable multiple times? Is it that broadly popular? Plus I’m not a member of the Academy but I am biased against movies that didn’t get widely released. It used to be, until as recently as 2004, that for a film to win Best Picture it had to be a crowd pleaser with a fairly large audience. Even in your example, Gandhi was the 12th-biggest movie of the year. From 1980-2004: The #1 film (by box office) of the year won 4 times (ROTK, Titanic, Forrest Gump, Rain Man) A top-5 film won 10 times A top-10 film won 14 times _None of the above has happened since_. The only correlation which has held true throughout Oscar history between B. Picture and box office grosses is that the lowest-earning film _never_ wins Best Picture, going back to Wings (1927, also the #1 box office movie of the year). (And, yeah, I got a spreadsheet with this data. Don’t have the latest one uploaded, but here’s the one [y’all can access](https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B956CzjkwM9vY2VFMXlnOV92cUU/view?usp=sharing).) ---
**Author:** ![peccavi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/peccavi/32/388_2.png) [@peccavi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peccavi)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2019, 5:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2018-road-to-the-oscars/826007/43 "2019-02-10T05:10:48Z")
With the Oscar Awards only about two weeks away, I’ve finally seen all of the nominees I’m going to (I haven’t seen anything in the Documentary categories and have missed Never Look Away and Capernaum in best Foreign Feature. Otherwise, I’ve seen everything nominated), so I thought I’d throw out my thoughts on the winners (at least the major awards). I’ve decided to put three categories into each award: Will Win (my best guess as to how the academy will vote); Should Win (my choice); MIA (only if my choice from all the movies I’ve seen this year isn’t among the nominees) **Best Picture** **Will Win:** _A Star is Born_ (by process of elimination) **Should Win:** _Roma_ (I think noms in both Best Picture and Foreign Film will reduce the vote for _Roma_ in Best Picture) **MIA:** \*Leave No Trace \* **Best Director** **Will Win/ Should Win:** Alfonso Cuarón – _Roma_ (a very personal masterpiece directed by an acknowledged master) **MIA:** Deborah Granik – _Leave No Trace_ **Best Actor** **Will Win:** Bradley Cooper – _A Star Is Born_ (though I think Malek could sneak in) **Should Win:** Willem Dafoe – _At Eternities Gate_ **MIA:** Ethan Hawke – _First Reformed_ (Anyone else notice that all the nominations in this category are actors playing “known” characters, either biographical or just well-known from other versions? Hawke created a character who’s arc I could not predict.) **Best Actress** **Will Win/Should Win:** Glenn Close – _The Wife_ (Why not? It’s her time. But this is a category where I would not be outraged by any of the nominees winning) **MIA:** Yup (I think the nominees represent some of the best performances of the year, but there were at least another half dozen that could have been added. Like Emily Blunt, Thomasin McKenzie, Elsie Fisher, Joanna Kulig, Regina Hall, Charlize Theron…the list goes on. I wish they could expand this one to 10+ nominees.) **Best Supporting Actor** **Will Win/ Should Win:** Richard E. Grant – _Can You Ever Forgive Me?_ (It’s a tough category- no massive stars on the back end of a career getting a lifetime achievement award, no flashy scenes, no death scenes. I took a guess at Grant over Elliott or Rockwell) **MIA:** Ben Foster – _Leave No Trace_ **Best Supporting Actress** **Will Win/Should Win:** Amy Adams – _Vice_ (a lot of good performances, but Adams is due) **Best Original Screenplay** **Will Win:** _Roma_ **Should Win:** _First Reformed_ **MIA:** _Eighth Grade_ (How does this get left out and well written but by the book screenplays like _Green Book_ and _Vice_ make the cut?) **Best Adapted Screenplay** **Will Win:** _A Star is Born_ **Should Win:** _If Beale Street Could Talk_ **MIA:** _A Simple Favor_ (just a gem of black comedy) **Best Animated Feature Film** **Will Win:** _Incredibles 2_ (_Isle of Dogs_ was to early in the year, _Spiderman_ too late and pitched at the wrong demographic for an award) **Should Win:** _Isle of Dogs_ **Best Foreign Language Film** **Will Win/Should Win:** _Roma_ (I think this win crushes _Roma’s_ chances at Best Picture. I would much rather see _Roma_ win Best Picture and _Shoplifters_ win this one, though a _Cold War_ win wouldn’t make me sad) **Best Animated Short Film** **Will Win/Should Win:** _Bao_ (Like many, I would love to see Pixar knocked off, but frankly, it’s the best in this group) **Best Live Action Short Film** **Will Win/Should Win** : _Marguerite_ And, while I haven’t seen any of the nominees in the Documentary Categories, I’m guessing: **Best Documentary - Feature** **Will Win:** _RBG_ (Though the documentary awards can get really squirrely, a film can be too popular to win) **Best Documentary – Short Subject** **Will Win:** _A Night at the Garden_ (With the Academy, you can’t go wrong betting on Nazis (the real ones)) ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2019, 5:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2018-road-to-the-oscars/826007/44 "2019-02-10T05:34:10Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > It used to be, until as recently as 2004, that for a film to win Best Picture it had to be a crowd pleaser with a fairly large audience. Even in your example, Gandhi was the 12th-biggest movie of the year. > > From 1980-2004: > > The #1 film (by box office) of the year won 4 times (ROTK, Titanic, Forrest Gump, Rain Man) > A top-5 film won 10 times > A top-10 film won 14 times > > _None of the above has happened since_. The only correlation which has held true throughout Oscar history between B. Picture and box office grosses is that the lowest-earning film _never_ wins Best Picture, going back to Wings (1927, also the #1 box office movie of the year). > > (And, yeah, I got a spreadsheet with this data. Don’t have the latest one uploaded, but here’s the one [y’all can access](https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B956CzjkwM9vY2VFMXlnOV92cUU/view?usp=sharing).) Though The Hurt Locker was a very close call, just a few million. It _could_ reasonably happen. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2019, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2018-road-to-the-oscars/826007/45 "2019-02-12T16:32:09Z")
4 awards given out during commercials > **[Academy Sparks Outrage for Dumping 4 Oscar Categories to Commercial Breaks:...](https://www.thewrap.com/oscars-move-categories-commercial-breaks-outrage/)** > > "Cinematography and editing are at the very heart of our craft," wrote last year's Best Picture and Best Director winner, Guillermo del Toro since they can’t even find a host they might as well just announce the winners on a website rather than wasting 3 hours It’s like a FB game , takes 3 hours but with an actual 10 minutes anyone cares about ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2019, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2018-road-to-the-oscars/826007/46 "2019-02-12T17:46:14Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > _None of the above has happened since_. The only correlation which has held true throughout Oscar history between B. Picture and box office grosses is that the lowest-earning film _never_ wins Best Picture, going back to Wings (1927, also the #1 box office movie of the year). “Moonlight” just barely missed this honor, slightly outdrawing “Hell or High Water” by less than a million bucks. ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2019, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2018-road-to-the-oscars/826007/47 "2019-02-12T19:22:48Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > 4 awards given out during commercials > > [https://www.thewrap.com/oscars-move-categories-commercial-breaks-outrage/](https://www.thewrap.com/oscars-move-categories-commercial-breaks-outrage/) > > since they can’t even find a host they might as well just announce the winners on a website rather than wasting 3 hours It’s like a FB game , takes 3 hours but with an actual 10 minutes anyone cares about Or do what the Grammys does, and give them out during the pre-show / red carpet arrivals; record them, and air them going into/coming out of commercial breaks. I remember one year when someone was being interviewed on the carpet when someone else informed him that he had just won a Grammy. But that’s what I like about the Oscars; they show all of the awards being given out. There are no “who cares” awards, like the Emmys have. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2019, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2018-road-to-the-oscars/826007/48 "2019-02-12T19:31:06Z")
Well, they do keep the nerds out. (The Scientific and Technical awards were already given out.) ---
**Author:** ![Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eyebrows_0f_doom/32/3119_2.png) [@Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eyebrows_0f_Doom)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2019, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2018-road-to-the-oscars/826007/49 "2019-02-12T19:51:38Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > 4 awards given out during commercials > > [https://www.thewrap.com/oscars-move-categories-commercial-breaks-outrage/](https://www.thewrap.com/oscars-move-categories-commercial-breaks-outrage/) > > since they can’t even find a host they might as well just announce the winners on a website rather than wasting 3 hours It’s like a FB game , takes 3 hours but with an actual 10 minutes anyone cares about This is such an idiotic & pointless decision and is a slap in the face of the people who \*actually \*make movies. Just how in the world is this supposed to be a good idea and for what benefit? There is **no one** in the viewing audience who was thinking “Well, I wasn’t going to watch the Oscars but now that they aren’t showing the awards for Cinematography & Editing I’ll tune in!” And you piss off all of the loyal viewers who \*\*do \*\*watch. What needs to happen now is the big stars they are counting on drawing an audience should come out against this. I’d bet if someone like Lady Gaga said “Show all of the awards or I won’t perform,” they’d backtrack on this in a heartbeat. She already got them to allow all 5 song nominees to perform, when they originally had just cut it to two. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2019, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2018-road-to-the-oscars/826007/50 "2019-02-12T19:55:20Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > “Moonlight” just barely missed this honor, slightly outdrawing “Hell or High Water” by less than a million bucks. I was going to refer to this… I think Moonlighting may have actually accomplished this, but I would have to see where the BO was for all nominees right before it one. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2019, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2018-road-to-the-oscars/826007/51 "2019-02-12T20:26:58Z")
Hell or High Water was shockingly little-watched, given that it’s a crime movie with stars in it. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2019, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2018-road-to-the-oscars/826007/52 "2019-02-12T20:29:35Z")
> [@Dewey\_Finn](#): > > Well, they do keep the nerds out. (The Scientific and Technical awards were already given out.) They don’t have categories and nominees, though. ---
**Author:** ![Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eyebrows_0f_doom/32/3119_2.png) [@Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eyebrows_0f_Doom)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2019, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2018-road-to-the-oscars/826007/53 "2019-02-12T21:00:28Z")
Hmmm, according to Guillermo del Toro, they are \*\*not \*\*actually cutting the awards from the telecast, just editing the walk-up to the stage. Which if true, why is it even being talked about to the press? If it’s something no one would even have noticed anyway and would only cut seconds from the broadcast?? [https://twitter.com/RealGDT/status/1095379180211003392](https://twitter.com/RealGDT/status/1095379180211003392) > [@](#): > > 1/3 Important clarification re: the Academy Awards (quote): “No one is being removed from either the in-theater or the ABC live broadcast. This year, in a voluntary rotation that will change each year, four awards will be given live in an uninterrupted progression— as always–” > > 2/3 “They will be slightly edited off-line in the trailer (such as the walk up from seat to stage)— as has been done for years with the Tony broadcast—and then placed live into the ongoing show. It should be seamless and most viewers won’t notice.” > > 3/3 A carefully considered and expressed announcement was sent yesterday. Each year, the “edited” awards will change categories and will AIR during the ceremony. ---
**Author:** ![Fair\_Rarity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fair_rarity/32/153_2.png) [@Fair\_Rarity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fair_Rarity)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2019, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2018-road-to-the-oscars/826007/54 "2019-02-13T01:51:09Z")
Why not section off a small area up front for nominees? Not ALL of the noms in every category, but for the NEXT category. So if it’s Adapted Screenplay, some poor schmo writer isn’t wayyyy back but s/he’s up front with all the rest (and a guest) for their awards and then they’re swapped out with Original Screenplay, etc? To conserve time, don’t make two people who are supposed to be ACTORS get up on the stage and give line reading that fall like lead balloons, saying terrible joke after terrible joke. There’s a lot of fat to be trimmed. If next year they do cut these ones out entirely, that would suck. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2019, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2018-road-to-the-oscars/826007/55 "2019-02-13T02:02:57Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > _None of the above has happened since_. The only correlation which has held true throughout Oscar history between B. Picture and box office grosses is that the lowest-earning film _never_ wins Best Picture, going back to Wings (1927, also the #1 box office movie of the year). > > (And, yeah, I got a spreadsheet with this data. Don’t have the latest one uploaded, but here’s the one [y’all can access](https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B956CzjkwM9vY2VFMXlnOV92cUU/view?usp=sharing).) > [@RickJay](#): > > “Moonlight” just barely missed this honor, slightly outdrawing “Hell or High Water” by less than a million bucks. Actually, while JohnT is technically correct, from an awards perspective he’s wrong. “Moonlight” stayed in the theater long past the Oscar date of February 26, picking up another $3.5 million. On the night of the ceremony, it was indeed the lowest drawing film. > **[Moonlight - Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2558428673/weekend/)** ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2019, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2018-road-to-the-oscars/826007/56 "2019-02-13T02:46:35Z")
Thank you for providing a citation to my caveat in post 50. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2019, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2018-road-to-the-oscars/826007/57 "2019-02-13T02:50:25Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Thank you for providing a citation to my caveat in post 50. 🙂 :o oops…missed that one. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2019, 12:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2018-road-to-the-oscars/826007/58 "2019-02-13T12:29:28Z")
> [@Maserschmidt](#): > > Actually, while JohnT is technically correct, from an awards perspective he’s wrong. “Moonlight” stayed in the theater long past the Oscar date of February 26, picking up another $3.5 million. On the night of the ceremony, it was indeed the lowest drawing film. > > [Moonlight - Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=moonlight2016.htm) In international box office it’s WAY ahead of “Hell or High Water” - are we going by international or USA/Canada? As to the phenomenon… I thought “Moonlight” was the best movie I have seen in the last ten years, and “Hell or High Water” was just outstanding, a wonderful movie. If the idea of the Oscars is to nominate and reward the best movies, that year they nailed it. “Moonlight” was the deserving winner, and “Hell or High Water” deserved to be nominated. But that is not, in fact, the purpose of the Oscars. The purpose of the Oscars is to serve as an advertising vehicle for the movie industry, and in that regard it is clearly not working as well as it used to, and that may be in part because low-visibility movies are winning most of the awards. We could spend a whole thread on why that is and how the big draw movies are all franchise properties and blah blah blah but the truth is ratings are down and Hell or High Water made less money than “Marvel Movie 46” will make its first loud weekend. The decisions the Academy has made around a Best Popular Movie award and not televising some awards are attempts to reverse that, and say what you will but they know what their job is and they’re trying to do it better. ---
**Author:** ![Skammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skammer/32/143_2.png) [@Skammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skammer)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2019, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2018-road-to-the-oscars/826007/59 "2019-02-13T18:26:48Z")
I’m overall disappointed in the nominations, especially for BP. I liked some of them but I can’t name one (except _Roma_ that would deserve to win in any other year. (Which reminds me, is there a thread for _The Favourite_? Because I hated that one, and seem to be the only one. I want to know what I missed that made it so great.) Honestly, I’m just supremely pissed by the snub for _Eighth Grade_. I thought that was the best movie I saw all year, and the best lead actress performance, and one of the best supporting actor performances, and it got completely ignored. Not even a Screenplay nod! I’m going to watch the whole ceremony with my arms crossed in defiance because of that injustice. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2019, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2018-road-to-the-oscars/826007/60 "2019-02-13T19:30:03Z")
> [@Maserschmidt](#): > > Actually, while JohnT is technically correct, from an awards perspective he’s wrong. “Moonlight” stayed in the theater long past the Oscar date of February 26, picking up another $3.5 million. On the night of the ceremony, it was indeed the lowest drawing film. > > [Moonlight - Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=moonlight2016.htm) If I’m reading that chart right, Moonlight was at about $22 million before winning the BP Oscar. I think Roma’s gross is much less than that. The Boxofficemojo page is missing detail, but it seems to be at only $3.5 million. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2018-road-to-the-oscars/826007.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2018-road-to-the-oscars/826007.md?page=4)