# The 2020 Presidential election betting thread. **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 21, 2019, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2020-presidential-election-betting-thread/832856 "2019-04-21T15:49:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2019, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2020-presidential-election-betting-thread/832856/1 "2019-04-21T15:49:48Z")
Might as well start it now. I’ve just placed £10 on Pete Buttigieg at 10/1. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2019, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2020-presidential-election-betting-thread/832856/2 "2019-04-21T15:55:33Z")
I’ll repeat my offer to moderate a Karachi Auction in _Thread Games_. Let SDMB players set the book on 2020 outcomes (using pretend money). ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2019, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2020-presidential-election-betting-thread/832856/3 "2019-04-21T16:08:41Z")
I’ll have to look that up, but it sounds fun. Let’s keep this thread for real bets by people prepared to put their money where their mouths are. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2019, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2020-presidential-election-betting-thread/832856/4 "2019-04-21T16:43:22Z")
I think betting on US elections is illegal for American Dopers (assuming you mean real money on real websites/casinos.) Can we participate with some fake currency? ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2019, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2020-presidential-election-betting-thread/832856/5 "2019-04-21T16:50:02Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > I think betting on US elections is illegal for American Dopers (assuming you mean real money on real websites/casinos.) Can we participate with some fake currency? [This site](https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/guides/how-to/bet-on-politics/) says that it used to be mostly illegal but now is up to individual states. > [@](#): > > However, in May of 2018, the U.S. Supreme Court shut down PASPA, ruling the federal restriction of legalized sports betting unconstitutional. Legalization and legislation is now determined at a state level, meaning it will be up to each individual state to decide whether or not to allow its residents to engage in sports betting, including political events. ---
**Author:** ![KarlGauss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karlgauss/32/3713_2.png) [@KarlGauss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KarlGauss)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2019, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2020-presidential-election-betting-thread/832856/6 "2019-04-21T18:10:12Z")
> [@](#): > > However, in May of 2018, the U.S. Supreme Court shut down PASPA, ruling the federal restriction of legalized sports betting unconstitutional. Legalization and legislation is now determined at a state level, meaning it will be up to each individual state to decide whether or not to allow its residents to engage in sports betting, including political events. Are federal elections really considered a sport? ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2019, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2020-presidential-election-betting-thread/832856/7 "2019-04-22T01:30:30Z")
More importantly, such continues to be illegal in the state of Illinois where the Straight Dope is based. Bet quatloos. Bet for honor. I think we’d appreciate no cash wagers here on the Straight Dope Message Board concerning sports or the upcoming presidential election. ---
**Author:** ![snoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/43a26b/32.png) [@snoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snoe)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2019, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2020-presidential-election-betting-thread/832856/8 "2019-04-22T02:03:45Z")
Curious: are prediction markets like PredictIt legal in Illinois? Having trouble finding a straight answer online. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2019, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2020-presidential-election-betting-thread/832856/9 "2019-04-22T02:27:43Z")
That is…an open question. But it’s long been policy here that things that are illegal in the USA and the state of Illinois make ownership nervous. Hence discussions of election outcomes via Predictit are fine. Actual betting here would not be. Nonetheless, I’ve shared it on the mod loop. If there are any developments I’ll share it here. Until that time, keep the cash out of it. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2019, 9:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2020-presidential-election-betting-thread/832856/10 "2019-04-22T09:18:52Z")
Just a quick check: you’re happy with we non-Merkins discussing placed bets, right? ---
**Author:** ![Mr\_Shine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mr_shine/32/464_2.png) [@Mr\_Shine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr_Shine)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2019, 9:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2020-presidential-election-betting-thread/832856/11 "2019-04-22T09:27:31Z")
I’ve bet £500 on “Anybody except Trump” to win £379 ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2019, 10:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2020-presidential-election-betting-thread/832856/12 "2019-04-22T10:35:48Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Just a quick check: you’re happy with we non-Merkins discussing placed bets, right? Sort of. Ruling come through overnight. No cash wagers on the Straight Dope. I’m going to interpret that as meaning you can discuss your own wagers outside the dope but you cannot bet cash with other Dopers regardless of the two party’s location. I’m going to leave this thread open given the above ruling. But let’s try to keep within the guidelines, please. ---
**Author:** ![Bullitt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bullitt/32/5725_2.png) [@Bullitt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bullitt)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2019, 11:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2020-presidential-election-betting-thread/832856/13 "2019-04-22T11:15:07Z")
I’ll take Trump and I’ll bet 500 quatloos. Too bad we can’t bet real cash money. ---
**Author:** ![Mr\_Shine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mr_shine/32/464_2.png) [@Mr\_Shine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr_Shine)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2019, 11:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2020-presidential-election-betting-thread/832856/14 "2019-04-22T11:44:10Z")
> [@Bullitt](#): > > I’ll take Trump and I’ll bet 500 quatloos. > > Too bad we can’t bet real cash money. Quatloos don’t exist and you didn’t bet any. If it’s illegal for you to gamble and/or you don’t have the inclination to do so then too bad for you but leave this thread for people who put **real** bets down with **real** money. ---
**Author:** ![snoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/43a26b/32.png) [@snoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snoe)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2019, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2020-presidential-election-betting-thread/832856/15 "2019-04-22T21:59:23Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > I’m going to interpret that as meaning you can discuss your own wagers outside the dope but you cannot bet cash with other Dopers regardless of the two party’s location. Okay, here’s my opposite of a humblebrag: I bought Buttegieg shares on Predictit at 5 cents when I first heard him give an interview, then sold them at 10-12 cents. He’s at 19 cents now. Shoulda hung on to them a bit longer. (I don’t think he’ll get the nom, but I correctly predicted he’d get a bunch of attention.) ---
**Author:** ![Bullitt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bullitt/32/5725_2.png) [@Bullitt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bullitt)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2019, 4:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2020-presidential-election-betting-thread/832856/16 "2019-04-23T04:36:55Z")
> [@Mr\_Shine](#): > > Quatloos don’t exist and you didn’t bet any. If it’s illegal for you to gamble and/or you don’t have the inclination to do so then too bad for you but leave this thread for people who put **real** bets down with **real** money. Quatloos exist for us Trekkies. Okay then, 750 quatloos on Trump. I’ll be back when he wins. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2019, 7:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2020-presidential-election-betting-thread/832856/17 "2019-04-23T07:37:22Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > I’ll repeat my offer to moderate a Karachi Auction in _Thread Games_. Let SDMB players set the book on 2020 outcomes (using pretend money). The Karachi Auction thing made my head spin. Maybe we could do a game where everyone starts with like 1000 quatloos and can bet them on the Predictit line at any given time. So you could spread your bets around on longshots early in the process, or hold off betting until the outcomes are more predictable (but the payoffs accordingly lower). ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2019, 7:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2020-presidential-election-betting-thread/832856/18 "2019-04-23T07:38:23Z")
Anyway, someone said in another thread that Predictit has close to 50-50 odds on Trump being re-elected. Given the chance, I would consider betting serious money on No. ---
**Author:** ![Mr\_Shine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mr_shine/32/464_2.png) [@Mr\_Shine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr_Shine)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2019, 10:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2020-presidential-election-betting-thread/832856/19 "2019-04-23T10:02:56Z")
> [@Bullitt](#): > > Quatloos exist for us Trekkies. Okay then, 750 quatloos on Trump. I’ll be back when he wins. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Bullitt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bullitt/32/5725_2.png) [@Bullitt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bullitt)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2019, 10:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2020-presidential-election-betting-thread/832856/20 "2019-04-23T10:19:50Z")
> [@Mr\_Shine](#): > > :rolleyes: Yeah yeah I know he is highly unpopular here. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2020-presidential-election-betting-thread/832856.md?page=2)