# The 2025 Israel vs Iran and geopolitical implications thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [June 19, 2025, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829 "2025-06-19T01:21:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2025, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/61 "2025-06-19T17:59:06Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Israel has had nukes since the 1960s. When did they announce a test? There’s no reason for a nation to have nukes without making sure everyone knows it, so a nation that hasn’t done a test can be concluded to lack them. > [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > North Korea got nuclear weapons in 2006, possibly earlier. North Korea has nuclear bombs, but they don’t have nuclear weapons. A bomb isn’t a weapon without the means to deliver it to your enemies. And North Korea also wasn’t overrun before 2006. > [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Libya gave up its nuclear weapons program in 2003, How many weapons did that program ever produce? Just because someone tries doesn’t mean they succeed, and a “nuclear weapons program” that has not yet produced any nukes isn’t any sort of deterrent to anyone. I stand corrected on South Africa. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2025, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/62 "2025-06-19T18:16:30Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Libya gave up its nuclear weapons program in 2003, and in 2011 the government was overthrown with help from the west. He was overthrown by his own people in a civil war. There were outside forces supporting factions on both sides. “The West” hardly played a decisive role. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2025, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/63 "2025-06-19T18:49:35Z")
> [@Dr.Drake](#): > > “murdering Jews” > > I respectfully ask that you be very careful about your word choice? Here’s a paragraph from the original charter of Hamas. This is their founding document…like the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution. You know–Hamas, the good guys, whom all the good progressives on campus are proud to support.. Read it yourself, and decide if they respect Jews. This is their version of DEI, so don’t dare criticize it on campus, or you’ll be labelled islamophobic. > [@](#): > > "The Day of Judgment will not come about until Moslems fight Jews and > kill them. Then, the Jews will hide behind rocks and trees, and the > rocks and trees will cry out: 'O Moslem, there is a Jew hiding behind > me, come and kill him." . .. cite: the Federation of American Scientists website > **[THE COVENANT OF THE HAMAS - MAIN POINTS](https://irp.fas.org/world/para/docs/880818a.htm)** ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2025, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/64 "2025-06-19T19:32:23Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > You know–Hamas, the good guys, whom all the good progressives on campus are proud to support.. Campus war protestors are against the killing of Palestinian civilians. ---
**Author:** ![DemonTree](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/demontree/32/8646_2.png) [@DemonTree](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DemonTree)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2025, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/65 "2025-06-19T21:22:32Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Israel has had nukes since the 1960s. Didn’t stop their neighbours trying to invade in 1973. > **[Yom Kippur War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yom_Kippur_War)** > > Egyptian front > International front > [@Chronos](#): > > I stand corrected on South Africa. If you believe South Africa had nukes then you should believe Israel has nukes, since they are supposed to have developed and tested them jointly: > **[Vela incident](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vela_incident)** > > The Vela incident was an unidentified event, involving a double flash of light detected by an American Vela Hotel satellite on 22 September 1979 near the South African territory of Prince Edward Islands in the Indian Ocean, roughly midway between Africa and Antarctica. Most independent researchers believe that the flash was caused by a nuclear explosion — an undeclared ocean surface nuclear test of an Israeli device, carried out jointly by South Africa and Israel. > The cause of the flash remain... ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2025, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/66 "2025-06-19T22:22:27Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > North Korea has nuclear bombs, but they don’t have nuclear weapons. A bomb isn’t a weapon without the means to deliver it to your enemies. And North Korea also wasn’t overrun before 2006. The US seriously considered bombing North Korea in 1994 to stop their nuclear program. The US didn’t and now NK has nuclear weapons. Not only that, but North Korea is the world’s major proliferator of nuclear technology to rogue states like Iran, Libya, Syria, etc. > **[An Assessment of North Korea’s Growing Nuclear Capabilities | Arms Control...](https://www.armscontrol.org/events/2022-10/assessment-north-koreas-growing-nuclear-capabilities)** > Today, North Korean nuclear-armed ballistic missiles could strike targets in Northeast Asia and some North Korean ICBMs may have the range necessary to reach the United States but with an uncertain degree of targe accuracy. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2025, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/67 "2025-06-19T23:04:10Z")
> [@Israel strikes dozens of targets in Iran, including nuclear program](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-strikes-dozens-of-targets-in-iran-including-nuclear-program/1019556/285): > > I wonder what the reason is for waiting for two weeks? The response to Whack-a-Mole’s question would go better here. I believe that the recently popularized term is “TACO”. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2025, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/69 "2025-06-19T23:39:30Z")
If Israel denies having nukes to appease the US, then they can give that up now, if they choose. If they announced today that they had nukes, the U.S. response would come from Trump, who would say something insightful like: “Everybody knew they had nukes. Especially me, I knew before anyone else.” ---
**Author:** ![Kropotkin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kropotkin/32/18045_2.png) [@Kropotkin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kropotkin)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2025, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/71 "2025-06-20T00:19:43Z")
The UK was the single largest recipient of Marshall Plan aid, and most of the money in the Marshall Plan was used to buy materials and goods from the US. It also gave the US considerable control in the economies of recipient countries. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2025, 11:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/72 "2025-06-20T11:17:32Z")
> [@gnoitall](#): > > The regime change in Syria seems to be a good example of a “least awful regime change outcome”, **at least for now.** Yeah, I’ve bolded the by far most important part of your post. Because we’ve been down that road many, many times. But hey, maybe _these_ Islamicists won’t turn out to be bad for their country… [or countrywomen, anyway](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/10/middleeast/syria-dress-code-women-beaches-burkinis-latam-intl). ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2025, 11:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/73 "2025-06-20T11:21:13Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > If North Korea didn’t have nukes they would’ve been invaded and toppled long ago. What stopped anyone before 2006? ---
**Author:** ![Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/son_of_a_rich/32/5439_2.png) [@Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Son_of_a_Rich)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2025, 12:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/74 "2025-06-20T12:16:27Z")
Any bombing boner trump might have could be deflated by playing clips of his old nemesis saying, like, “how did that song go…bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran…”. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2025, 12:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/75 "2025-06-20T12:33:13Z")
> [@Son\_of\_a\_Rich](#): > > playing clips of his old nemesis Himself? ---
**Author:** ![Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/son_of_a_rich/32/5439_2.png) [@Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Son_of_a_Rich)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2025, 12:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/76 "2025-06-20T12:37:02Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Himself? Him, too. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2025, 1:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/77 "2025-06-20T13:28:04Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > On a different note, why does everyone always treat nation-building or regime change like some sort of dirty word? Near as I can tell, the Marshall Plan was a resounding success. Expensive, maybe, but even so, it’s paid off. But everyone always says things like “Well of COURSE we shouldn’t be involved in nation-building; that would be heinous”. Aren’t there at least a couple of significant differences between pos-WWII “rebuilding” and possible current “building” in the ME? -Germany and Japan had established industrial/consumer economies prior to WWII. As opposed to, say, Afghanistan. Or Iraq/Iran/Libya. -After WWII, we had completely defeated and occupied Germany and Japan. Are we willing to conduct such complete military defeat and occupation of any ME country? Given their less centralized, less industrialized nature, how readily is such complete subjugation possible\> -WRT Iran, we have a history of contravening their internal politics and emplacing and supporting a horrible dictator. Once he was overthrown, we failed to make any consistent efforts to meaningfully interact with the new government. When we had a somewhat workable nuclear agreement, we unilaterally walked away. With that history, it would be difficult to obtain volitional cooperation. And let’s not skim over the “expensive, maybe” part. Adding in the costs of participating in WWII. I see no indication that any portion of the US - public or government - is eager to accept such costs in order to “build” any ME nation. And “regime change” is something the US has always been happy to do when it could be done inexpensively and was perceived as supporting some US interest. (My favorite is “Operation Just Cause” in Panama. I prefer the unofficial longer name, “Just Cause We Can!” ;)) Unfortunately, we don’t seem terribly interested in “changing” regimes in a direction that is more democratic. Just to install someone more favorable to US strategic/corporate interests. And, once we break things and install a puppet, we have a pretty good track record of just walking away, and tut-tutting the inevitable decay. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2025, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/78 "2025-06-20T13:41:35Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > -Germany and Japan had established industrial/consumer economies prior to WWII. As opposed to, say, Afghanistan. Or Iraq/Iran/Libya. Iran, unlike Afghanistan, Iraq, or Libya, is a country with a real history whose people feel a connection to, not just random lines drawn on a map drawn when the British were leaving. The idea of Iran is much stronger than the idea of any of those other countries. So I’d be shocked if Iran fell completely apart, like some of those other countries did. Oh, they might lose some land - the Balochis in Pakistan have been really active lately (including with some really ugly tactics), and there are many Balochis in Iran too - and the Kurds have of course always wanted out. But “Iran” as a concept has a very long history; it has much more staying power than those other examples. Funnily enough, the sense I’ve gotten from reading Iranian thoughts on the matter (mostly expat Iranians, but also number of Iranians who are still in Iran) is that they’re pretty insulted by the comparison. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2025, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/79 "2025-06-20T13:47:25Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > -After WWII, we had completely defeated and occupied Germany and Japan. Are we willing to conduct such complete military defeat and occupation of any ME country? Given their less centralized, less industrialized nature, how readily is such complete subjugation possible\> > [@Dinsdale](#): > > And let’s not skim over the “expensive, maybe” part. Adding in the costs of participating in WWII. But that’s the weird part. The expensive and difficult part is the military part, destroying the old regime. But we (by which I mean “the elected officials we elected”) were just fine with doing that in Iraq and Afghanistan: We did go in and completely militarily defeat the enemy. And then, we said that of course we weren’t going to do the rebuilding part, because that would be reprehensible. > [@Babale](#): > > Iran, unlike Afghanistan, Iraq, or Libya, is a country with a real history whose people feel a connection to, not just random lines drawn on a map drawn when the British were leaving. Doesn’t Iraq have as much of a history as a nation as Iran? So far as I can tell, both go back to the dawn of history. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2025, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/80 "2025-06-20T14:06:44Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Doesn’t Iraq have as much of a history as a nation as Iran? So far as I can tell, both go back to the dawn of history. There is a history of human civilization in Iraq, but there is not necessarily that same history with the control of the whole modern country of Iraq as a single polity. Whereas most parts of Iran have been Iranian or Persian for a very long time. If you pick up a map from a random year, odds are, Persia or Iran is there, in one form or another. Iraq, on the other hand, is always inhabited, but also almost always ruled from elsewhere. The exception is the Abbasid Caliphate, but most of the progress they made in developing Iraq’s core was undone in 1258 when the Mongols sacked Baghdad. And even there, the Caliphate was by its nature Pan Arab, not Iraqi; compare that to the empires of Persia. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2025, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/81 "2025-06-20T14:09:18Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > The expensive and difficult part is the military part, destroying the old regime. But we (by which I mean “the elected officials we elected”) were just fine with doing that in Iraq and Afghanistan: Yeah - but the relatively meagre USAid was too expensive. 🙄 > [@Chronos](#): > > Doesn’t Iraq have as much of a history as a nation as Iran? So far as I can tell, both go back to the dawn of history. I am far from an expert on Iran/Persia. I don’t know how far back **Babale** wishes to go in terms of defining modern-day Iran, or what sort of economy/values/government he expects a “rebuilt” Iran to exhibit. I’m not sure how meaningful it is to note the lengthy history of “Persia.” Especially WRT current borders/regime/economy. I’m pretty sure Iran’s primary exports are extractive, which I believe differs from pre-WWII Germany and Japan. Also theocracy and tribalism. Not sure how **Babale’s** post responds to that. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2025, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/82 "2025-06-20T14:16:41Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > I’m not sure how meaningful it is to note the lengthy history of “Persia.” Especially WRT current borders/regime/economy. Modern day Iran _is_ Persia; the world switched to the name “Iran” in 1939, at the request of the Shah. Persia is an exonym, a Greek corruption of Fars, a province in Iran. At the time that the Greeks came across the Persians, they were controlled by a leader who came from that region, so they called the whole Empire that, and it stuck. Iran is the endonym for the whole shebang, hence the Shah’s request that the name be changed. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829.md?page=5)