# The 2025 Israel vs Iran and geopolitical implications thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [June 19, 2025, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829 "2025-06-19T01:21:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2025, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/123 "2025-06-23T01:27:49Z")
This article, UPI via Yahoo News, quotes Russia as saying other nations will give Iran nukes after this strike: > **[Russia: Other nations ready to supply Iran with nukes after U.S. strike -...](https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-other-nations-ready-supply-153158798.html)** > > In the wake of President Donald Trump's strike on Iran's nuclear sites, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Sunday that "a number of countries" are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear weapons. Doesn’t make a lot of sense to me, knowing who the nuclear nations are. I don’t get the impression that any of them have sympathies with Iran that would extend that far. Also, why buy trouble? If you gave Iran a nuke and they used it, Israel and the US would retaliate against all involved and then some. The same article also claims that Fordow was emptied a couple of days ago. Now I don’t think you can just pack centrifuges onto trucks and drive them elsewhere to set up but Iran may have a good sized chunk of fissile material that is now the world’s hottest hot potato. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2025, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/124 "2025-06-23T01:30:43Z")
> [@DWMarch](#): > > This article, UPI via Yahoo News, quotes Russia as saying other nations will give Iran nukes after this strike: It doesn’t quote “Russia” as saying this, it quotes _Medvedev_, who is notorious for his trolling on Twitter. It kinda seems like that’s his official state role? ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2025, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/125 "2025-06-23T01:33:53Z")
Attacking Iran was polling at like 15% earlier in the week, until I’m shown otherwise “of course it’s good politics!” doesn’t strike me as obviously correct. ---
**Author:** ![Slithy\_Tove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slithy_tove/32/18248_2.png) [@Slithy\_Tove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slithy_Tove)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2025, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/126 "2025-06-23T01:34:41Z")
So does this mean the pee tape will be on TikTok presently (even if AI)? ---
**Author:** ![ekedolphin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ekedolphin/32/10003_2.png) [@ekedolphin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ekedolphin)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2025, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/127 "2025-06-23T02:03:13Z")
World Wrestling Entertainment is currently scheduled to have major shows in Saudi Arabia next Friday and Saturday. I’m not sure I’d be going that close to Iran right now. ---
**Author:** ![DeadTreasSecretaries](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deadtreassecretaries/32/4817_2.png) [@DeadTreasSecretaries](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DeadTreasSecretaries)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2025, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/128 "2025-06-23T02:03:39Z")
If this is where direct US investment ends, Israel’s operation concludes in relatively short order after degrading Iran’s nuclear capacity to a level they’re happy with and we don’t get Syria-like stories out of Iran during the remainder of Trump’s term I think Americans are not going to care. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2025, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/129 "2025-06-23T03:02:02Z")
Russia says the US attack may cause other countries to provide Iran with nuclear weapons. > **[Russia: Other nations ready to supply Iran with nukes after U.S. strike -...](https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2025/06/22/aftermath-trump-strikes-iran-nuclear-sites/6851750604331/)** > > In the wake of President Donald Trump's strike on Iran's nuclear sites, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Sunday that "a number of countries" are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear weapons. ---
**Author:** ![ParallelLines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/parallellines/32/3575_2.png) [@ParallelLines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParallelLines)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2025, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/130 "2025-06-23T03:19:18Z")
As has been mentioned in a number of other threads, Medvedev seems to function as Putin’s little troll, making all sorts of deniable threats. He’s the one who periodically floats using nuclear weapons against Ukraine, which, thankfully, hasn’t happened yet. Doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be watched, and I am worried about what he says, but not in a literal fashion. For that matter, he he did, I could see various Western powers (though probably not the USA these days), floating the idea of giving Ukraine/Taiwan nukes by the same standards. None of which I hope happens, well… 99% of the time at least. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2025, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/131 "2025-06-23T03:25:01Z")
Let’s say the USA and Israel suddenly stop all strikes now. Iran can’t exactly “call it a day,” but would they really say, “We’re shutting down the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea until you apologize and pay reparations” or something like that? ---
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2025, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/132 "2025-06-23T03:33:58Z")
There is an aspect to this that I can’t figure out. Let’s say someone does gift Iran a nuke or they manage to roll their own. What do they do with it? If the answer is that they would immediately use it on Israel, sure but what then? First, you have to assume that Israel is expecting this kind of attack and may even be prepared for it. So you can put it on a missile and launch it at Tel Aviv but it might get shot down and then you’re out of nukes. I would assume that if you attempt to nuke Israel, they flip one or more back at you. Iran doesn’t have an Iron Dome and Iran’s air defense network is various piles of smoking scrap right now. So are you prepared to shoot down an Israeli cruise missile or SLBM or lob toss from a fighter jet? You could try to smuggle one in. A truck, a ship, a cargo plane, a light aircraft? But again, has Israel ever thought of this? Do they have some means of detecting nuclear contraband as it is inbound? Assume they do. Assume even if this perimeter wasn’t solid before Oct 7th, it is solid now. Sneaking a nuke into Israel seems like a good way to lose your nuke to a waiting commando team that is on permanent hot standby for just such an occasion. And again, Iran would find itself in the position of having tried and failed but the retaliation would be the same as if they had succeeded. And if, God forbid, they did actually succeed, well… then what? The loss of life would be catastrophic but a single nuke wouldn’t destroy the nation. Israel would recover. And Israel’s military command absolutely has to have counter-strike plans that would be so much worse for Iran than the loss of a single city. Iran can build a nuke. As I understand it (thanks Tom Clancy, The Sum of All Fears is a great book!), a nuke isn’t particularly difficult to build if you have the fissile material. But Iran can’t _use_ a nuke unless they want to face an immediate barrage of nukes headed in their direction. Is it worth it? Just to _hurt_ Israel? Knowing the price would be the absolute destruction of Iran? ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2025, 3:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/133 "2025-06-23T03:38:08Z")
If you can build one nuke, you can build many - Iran enriched enough uranium for 8-9. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2025, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/134 "2025-06-23T03:47:42Z")
Your source for this is…? Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2025, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/135 "2025-06-23T04:01:43Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > Your source for this is…? Mossad intelligence. Just kidding! [The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists](https://thebulletin.org/2025/06/the-radiation-risks-of-irans-nuclear-program-with-or-without-a-strike-on-fordow/) > [@](#): > > The IAEA also estimates that over 400 kilograms of the uranium hexafluoride gas have already been enriched to 60 percent—a level considered highly enriched, but not yet weapons grade. This material sits outside of international oversight, Ian Stewart, a non-proliferation expert, explains. It’s enough for about 10 nuclear weapons, he says. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2025, 4:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/136 "2025-06-23T04:43:16Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > The IAEA also estimates that over 400 kilograms of the uranium hexafluoride gas have already been enriched to 60 percent—a level considered highly enriched, but not yet weapons grade. So, no highly enriched uranium (HEU) for any nuclear weapons much less: > [@Babale](#): > > Iran enriched enough uranium for 8-9. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2025, 9:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/137 "2025-06-23T09:03:39Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > So, no highly enriched uranium (HEU) for any nuclear weapons much less: > > > [@Babale](#): > > > > Iran enriched enough uranium for 8-9. Did you read the next sentence? > [@Babale](#): > > This material sits outside of international oversight, Ian Stewart, a non-proliferation expert, explains. It’s enough for about 10 nuclear weapons, he says. I didn’t say they made weapons grade uranium, I said the batch they enriched is enough for 10 nukes once enriched all the way. ---
**Author:** ![DPRK](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/4491bb/32.png) [@DPRK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DPRK)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2025, 9:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/138 "2025-06-23T09:55:36Z")
As long as we are wildly speculating, if Iran were to start with 400 kg of enriched uranium and process it into highly enriched uranium, why assume they would waste it on shitty 1940s bombs? One should be able to get, let’s say, 20 bombs out of that much uranium. Is there any evidence for any actual nuclear weapons testing in Iran? Or is it more of a Sadaam Hussein sort of thing? ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2025, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/139 "2025-06-23T13:24:08Z")
> [@DPRK](#): > > As long as we are wildly speculating, if Iran were to start with 400 kg of enriched uranium and process it into highly enriched uranium, why assume they would waste it on shitty 1940s bombs? One should be able to get, let’s say, 20 bombs out of that much uranium. You’d need to ask Ian Stewart, the non-proliferation expert cited by the _Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists_. ---
**Author:** ![DPRK](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/4491bb/32.png) [@DPRK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DPRK)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2025, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/140 "2025-06-23T14:05:23Z")
He indeed writes, > [@](#): > > Highly enriched uranium is one of the two main types of material that can be used in nuclear weapons and was the material used in the bomb dropped on Hiroshima. There, 64 kilograms of uranium enriched to 80% were used in a crude nuclear weapon that was so simple that it didn’t even need to be tested. Today, Iran would likely favor a more complex design using a smaller quantity of more highly enriched uranium. which makes sense to me and is exactly what I was suggesting. Now, if you want to know for sure what Iran has or has not done with a particular batch of uranium, you would have to convince them (again?) to let the IAEA inspect it. Otherwise, who knows where it is, or whether it is being enriched. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2025, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/141 "2025-06-23T14:33:00Z")
> [@DWMarch](#): > > There is an aspect to this that I can’t figure out. Let’s say someone does gift Iran a nuke or they manage to roll their own. What do they do with it? If the answer is that they would immediately use it on Israel, sure but what then? That isn’t the answer. As it’s been since the USSR exploded its first device, the most important use of nuclear weapons has been as a threat, to make other countries take you seriously. Take a look at how Trump has been “negotiating” with Iran up until now. It’s his usual bully bluster, “We’re so tough, give us everything, and fuck you in the process, you weakling losers!” But if Iran actually builds a bomb and demonstrates it to the world, suddenly that bluster isn’t as intimidating. Suddenly, we have to actually start taking their positions seriously, we have to listen to what they actually want, and we have to actually give them something. Iran has been heavily sanctioned for decades, which has limited their economy and kept their people down. If they get the bomb, maybe we might have to ease up on some of that, to keep them from going off half-cocked. We’d have to start treating them less like Afghanistan, and more like Pakistan. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2025, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/142 "2025-06-23T20:52:17Z")
Psst… @Whack-a-Mole > [@Israel, and the USA as of June 21, 2025, strikes dozens of targets in Iran, including nuclear program](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-and-the-usa-as-of-june-21-2025-strikes-dozens-of-targets-in-iran-including-nuclear-program/1019556/543): > > I am on the fence with this. The Iranian regime is in a bad spot right now. They want room to regroup so are asking for a peace accord. > > But I don’t think for a second they will become nice guys over this. I think they will work to hurt Israel and the US even more but just be more careful about it. We’ll be here again in a few years. > > The alternative is regime change and that is a TALL order and likely full on war. (And I can’t imagine China being ok with a regime change that is cozy with the US.) > > Both options suck. I agree, they’re asking for time to regroup. That said, as long as America and Israel firmly demand a few key non-negotiable point, I think that’s OK. Demands _must_ include: 1. Provisions that will punish Iran, through sanctions and military action, for funding terrorist proxies 2. Iran is completely out of the enrichment game 3. Strict limits on the size, range, and number of ballistic missiles Iran can field 4. Regular inspections to ensure that the regime complies with the above If they don’t want to take that deal, we can go right back to fighting. Israel’s jets could definitely use some maintenance, and I doubt Iran can fix their air defense web in that timeframe. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829.md?page=8)