# The 2025 Israel vs Iran and geopolitical implications thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [June 19, 2025, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829 "2025-06-19T01:21:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2025, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/143 "2025-06-23T20:53:39Z")
Thanks! I forgot where I was when I posted that. Glad you nabbed it for here. Appreciate it. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2025, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/144 "2025-06-23T22:15:54Z")
Trump has announced a ceasefire. ---
**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2025, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/145 "2025-06-23T22:30:42Z")
Is there any independent information that either Iran or Israel are aware of this ceasefire? ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2025, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/146 "2025-06-23T22:35:57Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > Trump has announced a ceasefire Incoming! ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2025, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/147 "2025-06-23T22:36:31Z")
> [@gnoitall](#): > > Is there any independent information that either Iran or Israel are aware of this ceasefire The Israeli newscasters are a bit confused, lol. No official word yet, but I assume _something_ was negotiated. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2025, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/148 "2025-06-23T22:45:14Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > Trump has announced a ceasefire. Have you got a more credible source? ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2025, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/149 "2025-06-23T22:45:19Z")
Iran now says they haven’t heard of this, according to CNN, according to the Israeli news. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2025, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/150 "2025-06-23T22:45:41Z")
> [@bobot](#): > > Have you got a more credible source? A more credible source that there is a ceasefire, or that Trump says there is one? ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2025, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/151 "2025-06-23T23:01:12Z")
Iran tells Reuters, ceasefire is real ---
**Author:** ![Ferris](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ferris/32/11573_2.png) [@Ferris](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ferris)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2025, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/152 "2025-06-24T00:43:44Z")
Thanks for directing me here. As things are moving so fast, I’ve stopped trying to predict what a ‘rational choice’ would be for Iran in this situation. But if they have agreed a ceasefire and stop firing missiles at Israeli cities, that would be an excellent start. ---
**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2025, 10:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/153 "2025-06-24T10:17:05Z")
I suppose Iran wasn’t really into the ceasefire? > **[Live updates: Trump ceasefire falters as Israel says Iran launched more missiles](https://apnews.com/live/iran-israel-war-updates-6-24-2025)** > > Israel and Iran accepted a ceasefire plan proposed by President Donald Trump. However, Israel’s military said it had detected another Iranian barrage hours after the start of the ceasefire. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2025, 12:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/154 "2025-06-24T12:33:26Z")
> [@Locrian](#): > > I suppose Iran wasn’t really into the ceasefire? My recollection, as a lifelong newspaper reader, is that a few early ceasefire violations are almost a normal expectation. What some reports are calling [Trump’s proposed ceasefire](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/114734934153569653) is written in such a way that the start time is ambiguous, especially but perhaps not only for Israel. I’m wondering if it is correct to say that Trump announced a ceasefire agreement that was imaginary on his part. That sounds insane, and it will further erode any trust in future Trump 47 negotiations. However, it could work this time. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2025, 12:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/155 "2025-06-24T12:39:08Z")
The full text of the Twuth: > [@](#): > > CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World. During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL. On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, “THE 12 DAY WAR.” This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD! > > DONALD J. TRUMP, > PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA So, yeah, that’s completely incoherent. The ceasefire will start six hours from now, then it’ll last for only twelve hours, then the ceasefire will end but so will the war, and Iran has to stop firing now, and Israel has to stop firing twelve hours from now, and then they’ll both start firing again except they won’t. And whichever side isn’t in a cease-fire at any given moment will still be peaceful. And of course there’s no mention at all of when the US will cease firing, despite that being the one nation that Trump can actually stop from firing. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2025, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/156 "2025-06-24T13:12:10Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > I’m wondering if it is correct to say that Trump announced a ceasefire agreement that was imaginary on his part. That sounds insane Unfortunately, that is SOP for the drivel that comes out of his mouth. But usually when he makes up shit on the fly, it doesn’t affect the safety of the entire world. And now, as posted elsewhere, he says that the two countries don’t know what the f\*\*k they’re doing. [https://thehill.com/homenews/5365719-trump-israel-iran-ceasefire/](https://thehill.com/homenews/5365719-trump-israel-iran-ceasefire/) ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2025, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/157 "2025-06-24T13:25:09Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > I’m wondering if it is correct to say that Trump announced a ceasefire agreement that was imaginary on his part. That sounds insane, and it will further erode any trust in future Trump 47 negotiations. However, it could work this time. I don’t mean this with any sarcasm, but does Trump have any credibility to erode at this point? Not only is Trump incompetent, not only does he surround himself with incompetence, but even if you think he means what he says today it’s not a given that he’ll follow through on any promises the next day. Anyone who trusts Trump is a fool. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2025, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/158 "2025-06-24T13:29:22Z")
> [@Railer13](#): > > [https://thehill.com/homenews/5365719-trump-israel-iran-ceasefire/](https://thehill.com/homenews/5365719-trump-israel-iran-ceasefire/) > [@](#): > > When I say okay, now you have 12 hours, you don’t go out in the first hour and just drop everything you have on them. So Trump is admitting that there was no agreement — it was just him bullying the parties. And if the Israelis didn’t bomb Iran after 6:02 AM Washington DC time today, which seems to be the case, they weren’t even violating the ceasefire, just some don’t-bomb-too-much-in-the-final-hours provision Trump made up after the fact. Of course, in terms of U.S. politics, attacking Trump for bullying Iran and Israel into a ceasefire will not fly. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2025, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/159 "2025-06-24T13:34:19Z")
The idea that this war would be inherently fucked because Trump is the president of the US seems incredibly silly to me, because at the end of the day the president does very little when it comes to fighting a war. On the other hand, this is where things get complicated, because making peace is a diplomatic matter, and diplomacy requires much more direct decision making and personal involvement from the president. And it’s something Trump is terrible at. We see this with the current mess over the ceasefire. According to Ynet (I don’t have an English source but machine translation is trivial, it’s 2025), the understanding that Israel came to with the people they had on the phone negotiating the ceasefire with is, Israel can respond to any ceasefire violations on Iran’s part. But when Netanyahu got Trump on the phone, Trump _had apparently never heard of that part of the agreement_, and got belligerent and angry when Netanyahu brought that up. So instead of an overwhelming response to Iran’s blatant ceasefire violation, we got a symbolic one. That’s absolutely not the way to handle a ceasefire violation in the Middle East, not if you want the ceasefire violations to _stop_; but ultimately, it’s a relatively small thing. It does point to a bigger danger: that Trump would royally fuck up the ultimate peace process, dropping the ball on ensuring that the key pillars necessary to peace are all met. > **[טראמפ הזהיר: "תחזירו את הטייסים הביתה מיד!"; ישראל תקפה מכ"ם באיראן](https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/rkuv1woneg?utm_source=ynet.app.android&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=general_share&utm_term=rkuv1woneg&utm_content=Header)** > > הנשיא האשים את ישראל ואיראן בהפרת הפסקת האש, ו"במיוחד" את ישראל ש"פירקה מחסנית" - ועצר תגובה משמעותית: "אל תפילו את הפצצות בגלל טיל אחד שאולי נורה בטעות". בירושלים נדהמו, ואחרי שיחה בין טראמפ לרה"מ - צה"ל הסתפק במטרה סמלית ולא תקף בטהרן. האזהרה של... ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2025, 1:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/160 "2025-06-24T13:43:42Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > And if the Israelis didn’t bomb Iran after 6:02 AM Washington DC time today, which seems to be the case, they weren’t even violating the ceasefire, … The “ceasefire” that Trump summoned unilaterally on his social media platform? ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2025, 1:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/161 "2025-06-24T13:43:59Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > So, yeah, that’s completely incoherent. He should have gotten right to the point and just said “GIMME MY F\*\*\*\*ING NOBEL PEACE PRIZE!!! Thank you for your attention to this matter!” ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2025, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829/162 "2025-06-24T13:51:44Z")
I think that what happened is that Trump wanted to just say “Cease fire effective right now, because I say so!!!”, but that someone told him that it wasn’t that simple, that there are always a lot of important details in a cease-fire agreement. And so Trump invented a lot of details. And never mind that they’re nonsensical and inconsistent. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2025-israel-vs-iran-and-geopolitical-implications-thread/1019829.md?page=9)