During the entire time that the deal was in place, Iran didn’t get a nuke, despite them being only a month away from it at the start. The purpose of the deal was to prevent Iran from getting a nuke. They didn’t. So the deal worked.
Already posted about 6 posts upthread.
Oh, thanks. I won’t post it.
CNN said there are four sources.
Vance and Gabbard? Who could be the other two? Aides who they asked to call CNN?
In defense of the leakers, whomever they are, I do not see in the CNN or AP article that they leaked secret files. They leaked their take on a briefing concerning the report. or, at most, their take on a report they read. It doesn’t seem to me much of a secret that there is a U.S. intelligence report which can be spun to say whatever wanted about the state of Iran’s nuclear program.
I’ll deny it, given the JCPOA was torn up seven years ago and Iran still doesn’t have the enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon. They’re only a single step away, but they don’t yet have it.
The only way for Iran to never have any possibility of enriched uranium (your only good place) is to glass the entire country. That’s it. No other way to guarantee a nation in the 21st century with their own uranium stockpiles can’t enrich uranium ever.
As of December 2023, most of that money remains in South Korean banks. Iran hasn’t accessed any of it, due to tight restrictions on its use.
In October 2019, the Trump administration made the money in those accounts available to Iran for limited humanitarian purposes, although the banks didn’t use that accommodation much due to the increased reporting it required.
As the Washington Institute for Near East Policy explained, “participants and observers complained that the ‘enhanced due diligence’ requirements were too much of a burden.”
So, even though there were mechanisms to disperse Iranian assets, “the South Koreans weren’t interested,” Patrick Clawson, director of research at the Washington Institute, told us last year. “From the beginning, South Korean banks were reluctant to use it because they feared the U.S. could change its mind and come back and fine them.”
The prisoner swap deal in September moved that money from South Korea to Qatar, although it is available only for humanitarian purposes. John Kirby, spokesman for the National Security Council, said in October that Iran hadn’t accessed any of the money.
Abram Paley, the State Department deputy special envoy for Iran, said the same thing in December during a House Financial Services Committee hearing.
“Not a penny of this money has been spent and these funds will not go anywhere anytime soon,” Paley said, although he didn’t explain what mechanism was keeping the funds static.
Night, as in a bunch of IAEA monitoring cameras destroyed?
I do not know exactly what to make of this, except that I cannot believe estimates of how many months it would take a nation to hold it’s first nuclear weapons test are accurate.
This sounds plausible:
He couldn’t possibly have known one way or the other at that point. So draw your own conclusions.
Or, that deal was the first step.
Do you imagine that, after 40 or so years of hostility, Iran was just going to give up everything, in one step? Give me a break.
This deal showed that we could deal with Iran without any kind of war. We could have built on it, in a series of give and take agreements, that would have improved the situation for everyone.
But that option has been permanently done away with. No matter what Iran signs in the coming days, there’s no reason to believe they won’t be working in secret to replace what they’ve lost.
It seems like Iran had a deliberate strategy of enriching just below weapons grade and then stopping. Whatever the reason for this it seems especially stupid in hindsight.
At any rate its unlikely that they were full throttle for seven years and this is the best they could do. They (again possibly stupidly) played this game of semi compliance with inspections. Not to mention it just takes longer when you’re doing the whole thing in a bunker under a mountain.
Iran was able to build this IN A CAVE! WITH A BOX OF SCRAPS!
That’s basically the plot of The Sum of All Fears. The fissile material is the hard part. The actual bomb is pretty straightforward.
Now I have this mental image of her literally speaking with his voice, a la Dr. Girlfriend from The Venture Brothers.
I’m a bit unclear on why people are acting as if this war is over. A ceasefire is a chance to negotiate an end to hostilities, but I’m unclear on whether that process has even begun yet?
Now Iran has seen that Israel is willing and able to strike it with impunity, and that Iran can do very little in return; Iran’s missile forces have been greatly degraded; and Israeli civilian targets have proven to be much harder than the Iranians expected. That’s something they’ll have to take into account during the next round of negotiations.
And if they choose not to, well, it’s a ceasefire; it can end at any time.
Meanwhile, overworked air crews and overstressed airframes can get some much needed rest and repairs.
Have Israel and Iran actually negotiated a ceasefire, or are we just going with what Trump tweeted?
Yes, the ceasefire (that Trump tweeted about) was acknowledged by both Israel and Iran.
A ceasefire is also simply a chance to rest because you are tired. Negotiations are nice, but not necessary.
Both Israel and Iran are exhausted right now, and need to rest–for a long, long time. Both sides used up almost all of their missiles. It will take years to replenish stocks.
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So now we are just going back to the status quo–no negotiations necessary..
Iran has been at war ever since the Ayatollahs took charge 4 decades ago and announced that they will destroy the Great Satan (USA)and the Little Satan (Israel).
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Trump’s ordering around Netanyahu with the f bomb illustrates why the Israeli government has always (or at least always after 1956) wanted to fight their own wars. Israel has repeatedly tried to buy a heavy bomber, but the U.S. has consistently refused, including during Trump 45. Since Israel lacks a heavy bomber, they are stuck with either just using smaller fighter-bombers, or having to rely on the totally unreliable Donald Trump.
Related to this is stationing of an estimated 100 U.S. troops in Israel where they operate the THAAD anti-missile system. I’m sure the IDF would rather operate these systems themselves.
The geopolitical implication is loss of Israeli control over their own military policy.