Thanks! I forgot where I was when I posted that. Glad you nabbed it for here. Appreciate it.
Trump has announced a ceasefire.
Is there any independent information that either Iran or Israel are aware of this ceasefire?
Incoming!
The Israeli newscasters are a bit confused, lol. No official word yet, but I assume something was negotiated.
Have you got a more credible source?
Iran now says they haven’t heard of this, according to CNN, according to the Israeli news.
A more credible source that there is a ceasefire, or that Trump says there is one?
Iran tells Reuters, ceasefire is real
Thanks for directing me here.
As things are moving so fast, I’ve stopped trying to predict what a ‘rational choice’ would be for Iran in this situation.
But if they have agreed a ceasefire and stop firing missiles at Israeli cities, that would be an excellent start.
I suppose Iran wasn’t really into the ceasefire?
My recollection, as a lifelong newspaper reader, is that a few early ceasefire violations are almost a normal expectation.
What some reports are calling Trump’s proposed ceasefire is written in such a way that the start time is ambiguous, especially but perhaps not only for Israel.
I’m wondering if it is correct to say that Trump announced a ceasefire agreement that was imaginary on his part. That sounds insane, and it will further erode any trust in future Trump 47 negotiations. However, it could work this time.
The full text of the Twuth:
So, yeah, that’s completely incoherent. The ceasefire will start six hours from now, then it’ll last for only twelve hours, then the ceasefire will end but so will the war, and Iran has to stop firing now, and Israel has to stop firing twelve hours from now, and then they’ll both start firing again except they won’t. And whichever side isn’t in a cease-fire at any given moment will still be peaceful. And of course there’s no mention at all of when the US will cease firing, despite that being the one nation that Trump can actually stop from firing.
Unfortunately, that is SOP for the drivel that comes out of his mouth. But usually when he makes up shit on the fly, it doesn’t affect the safety of the entire world.
And now, as posted elsewhere, he says that the two countries don’t know what the f**k they’re doing.
https://thehill.com/homenews/5365719-trump-israel-iran-ceasefire/
I don’t mean this with any sarcasm, but does Trump have any credibility to erode at this point? Not only is Trump incompetent, not only does he surround himself with incompetence, but even if you think he means what he says today it’s not a given that he’ll follow through on any promises the next day. Anyone who trusts Trump is a fool.
So Trump is admitting that there was no agreement — it was just him bullying the parties.
And if the Israelis didn’t bomb Iran after 6:02 AM Washington DC time today, which seems to be the case, they weren’t even violating the ceasefire, just some don’t-bomb-too-much-in-the-final-hours provision Trump made up after the fact.
Of course, in terms of U.S. politics, attacking Trump for bullying Iran and Israel into a ceasefire will not fly.
The idea that this war would be inherently fucked because Trump is the president of the US seems incredibly silly to me, because at the end of the day the president does very little when it comes to fighting a war.
On the other hand, this is where things get complicated, because making peace is a diplomatic matter, and diplomacy requires much more direct decision making and personal involvement from the president. And it’s something Trump is terrible at.
We see this with the current mess over the ceasefire. According to Ynet (I don’t have an English source but machine translation is trivial, it’s 2025), the understanding that Israel came to with the people they had on the phone negotiating the ceasefire with is, Israel can respond to any ceasefire violations on Iran’s part. But when Netanyahu got Trump on the phone, Trump had apparently never heard of that part of the agreement, and got belligerent and angry when Netanyahu brought that up.
So instead of an overwhelming response to Iran’s blatant ceasefire violation, we got a symbolic one.
That’s absolutely not the way to handle a ceasefire violation in the Middle East, not if you want the ceasefire violations to stop; but ultimately, it’s a relatively small thing.
It does point to a bigger danger: that Trump would royally fuck up the ultimate peace process, dropping the ball on ensuring that the key pillars necessary to peace are all met.
The “ceasefire” that Trump summoned unilaterally on his social media platform?
He should have gotten right to the point and just said “GIMME MY F****ING NOBEL PEACE PRIZE!!! Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
I think that what happened is that Trump wanted to just say “Cease fire effective right now, because I say so!!!”, but that someone told him that it wasn’t that simple, that there are always a lot of important details in a cease-fire agreement. And so Trump invented a lot of details. And never mind that they’re nonsensical and inconsistent.