# The 2026 Oscars (celebrating films of 2025) - nominations, predictions, discussion **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Tags:** movies\ **Created:** [January 22, 2026, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2026-oscars-celebrating-films-of-2025-nominations-predictions-discussion/1026926 "2026-01-22T15:11:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2026, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2026-oscars-celebrating-films-of-2025-nominations-predictions-discussion/1026926/81 "2026-03-09T23:07:23Z")
I watched F1 tonight. No surprises, no unpredictable dialogue, a showcase for Brad Pitt’s charming smile, 70s and 80s rock, and LOTS of brand placement. I enjoyed it for what it was. It was better than that Maverick film, I’ll say that. On a side topic, every Oscar season my friends and I catalog actors who appear in multiple nominees (there are always some). So far, I see Kerry Condon (F1 and Train Dreams), plus on the non-actor side, two films had brief appearances of 2-headed animals (I won’t list those due to possible spoilers). ---
**Author:** ![Lucas\_Jackson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lucas_jackson/32/303_2.png) [@Lucas\_Jackson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lucas_Jackson)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2026, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2026-oscars-celebrating-films-of-2025-nominations-predictions-discussion/1026926/82 "2026-03-09T23:29:15Z")
Saw Hamnet last night. Meh. I though yelling as acting went out in the 60’s. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2026, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2026-oscars-celebrating-films-of-2025-nominations-predictions-discussion/1026926/83 "2026-03-09T23:44:45Z")
> [@Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](#): > > **F1** is much better than **Frankenstein**. Strong disagree. Granted that _F1_ is an enjoyable watch, and it does have great cinematography, but at its core it’s like a formulaic action movie that teenagers flock to the theater to watch. _Frankenstein_ at least tries to be thoughtful in its telling of a complicated story, even if not everyone agrees that it succeeds. I think it does, and apparently so do enough members of the Academy to secure its nomination. The one I really can’t account for being up there is _One Battle After Another_, but maybe that’s just me. I’d be at a loss to make a prediction for Best Picture winner, but those decisions almost always come down to arbitrary tastes and trends among the voters. I think _Bugonia_ is great but it lacks the charm of Yorgos Lanthimos’ previous _Poor Things_. There’s a warm spot in my heart for _Sentimental Value_, but it’s probably too abstract and cerebral to win BP. But I very much hope that Renate Reinsve gets Best Actress for her role in that film. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2026, 12:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2026-oscars-celebrating-films-of-2025-nominations-predictions-discussion/1026926/84 "2026-03-10T00:00:30Z")
> [@Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](#): > > **F1** is much better than **Frankenstein**. Both looked good but both stories were boring. _Frankenstein_ because it brought absolutely nothing new to a story told a thousand times, and _F1_…well the word “formula” implied in the title is a brilliant example of truth in advertising. ---
**Author:** ![peccavi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/peccavi/32/388_2.png) [@peccavi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peccavi)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2026, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2026-oscars-celebrating-films-of-2025-nominations-predictions-discussion/1026926/85 "2026-03-10T23:35:05Z")
All the major precursor awards have been settled, the votes are all in, I think it’s time for me to provide some predictions, otherwise I’ll probably forget to. I’m not going to try to cover every award, because I don’t really care about a lot of them. Because I’m a realist and I do my homework, I’m going to separate the likely winners (Will Win) from my preference (Should Win) **Best Picture** – This race is tight, but only between _Sinners_ and _One Battle After Another._ Honestly, it could go either way. I think the voters will slightly favor the more ”traditional” nominee. Will Win: _One Battle After Another_ Should Win: _Hamnet_ **Best Director** – If this was bracketology, I’d be going with “chalk” here, though it isn’t unprecedented for the Best Director winner to not be the director of the Best Picture, in which case, bet on Ryan Coogler (_Sinners_) Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson (_One Battle After Another_) Should Win: Chloé Zhao (_Hamnet_) **Best Actress** – The only mortal lock in the major categories, she’s won just about every major precursor award and her performance is right down the sweet spot of the Actors Branch, the largest voting membership. Will Win: Jessie Buckley (_Hamnet_) Should Win: Jessie Buckley (_Hamnet_) **Best Actor** – What looked like a runaway for Chalamet at the start of the year, with DiCaprio a close second now looks like it is going to be Jordan in a very tight race, with DiCaprio having faded badly in the precursors, especially SAG. Will Win: Michael B Jordan (_Sinners_) Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio (_One Battle After Another_) **Best Supporting Actress** – This one has narrowed to a three-way race among Amy Madigan (_Weapons_), Wunmi Mosaku (_Sinners_), and Teyana Taylor (_One Battle After Another_), and it’s almost too close to call. Madigan won SAG and gets to play a standout evil villain but the movie didn’t get much Academy love. Mosaku gets some choice scenes but is in a smaller supporting role. Taylor has a meaty role, but the character may be too unsympathetic for the voters. Let’s flip some coins… Will Win: Amy Madigan (_Weapons_) Should Win: Amy Madigan (_Weapons_) **Best Supporting Actor** – Worthy performances by all the nominees, all genuinely supporting roles. This is another tight race that is tough to predict. Sean Penn (_One Battle After Another_) is a polarizing person but seems to have gained the momentum just before the voting closed (SAG again). Will his vote split with Del Toro and allow either Elordi or Skarsgård to slide by? Maybe. Maybe not. Will Win: Sean Penn (_One Battle After Another_) Should Win: Benicio Del Toro (_One Battle After Another_) Some odds and ends- _Sentimental Value_ is the favorite for the **International Feature Award** and is also a deserving candidate. Nomination for both this award and Best Picture is usually a solid indicator. _Sinners_ and _One Battle After Another_ aren’t competing in the **Screenplay** categories, so I expect them to walk away with their respective awards. _K-Pop Demon Hunters_ is likely to win both **Best Animated Feature** and **Best Original Song** , mostly because it’s massively popular with the Academy voters’ grandkids (OK, OK, I kid. Try the veal). I really, really liked _Little Amélie or the Character of Rain_ but it doesn’t have a chance. ---
**Author:** ![Bullitt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bullitt/32/5725_2.png) [@Bullitt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bullitt)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2026, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2026-oscars-celebrating-films-of-2025-nominations-predictions-discussion/1026926/86 "2026-03-11T14:04:08Z")
Interesting analysis, thank you @peccavi . > [@peccavi](#): > > Will Win: Amy Madigan (_Weapons_) > > Should Win: Amy Madigan (_Weapons_) I hope you’re right with this! > [@peccavi](#): > > Will Win: _One Battle After Another_ And I hope you’re _ **not** _ right with this! ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2026, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2026-oscars-celebrating-films-of-2025-nominations-predictions-discussion/1026926/87 "2026-03-11T14:25:38Z")
> [@Bullitt](#): > > I hope you’re right with this! I also hope Madigan wins. I’m sure she was not thinking Oscars when she joined Weapons. ---
**Author:** ![peccavi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/peccavi/32/388_2.png) [@peccavi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peccavi)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2026, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2026-oscars-celebrating-films-of-2025-nominations-predictions-discussion/1026926/88 "2026-03-11T15:36:24Z")
I’ve put up an Oscars vote poll in the Polls Only thread for those interested (votes are public) > [@Polls only: No discussion](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-only-no-discussion/953642/6624): > > The Oscar ceremony is on Sunday and the voting is over, so let’s have a little SDMB Oscar vote on the major categories. (All the votes are public, because this is the final piece of the puzzle I need to geolocate each and every one of you [evil laugh]) If you want to discuss, there is the Discussions thread or the [Oscars thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2026-oscars-celebrating-films-of-2025-nominations-predictions-discussion/1026926): Best Picture [poll](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-only-no-discussion/953642/6624) Achievement in directing [poll](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-only-no-discussion/953642/6624) Performance by an actor in a leading role [poll](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-only-no-discussion/953642/6624) Performance by an actress in a leading role [poll](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-only-no-discussion/953642/6624) Performance by an… ---
**Author:** ![Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eyebrows_0f_doom/32/3119_2.png) [@Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eyebrows_0f_Doom)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2026, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2026-oscars-celebrating-films-of-2025-nominations-predictions-discussion/1026926/89 "2026-03-11T15:47:16Z")
> [@peccavi](#): > > All the major precursor awards have been settled, the votes are all in, I think it’s time for me to provide some predictions, otherwise I’ll probably forget to. I’m not going to try to cover every award, because I don’t really care about a lot of them. Because I’m a realist and I do my homework, I’m going to separate the likely winners (Will Win) from my preference (Should Win) Agreed 100% with all your predicted winners here. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2026, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2026-oscars-celebrating-films-of-2025-nominations-predictions-discussion/1026926/90 "2026-03-11T16:02:12Z")
I’m predicting, or I’m saying what I want? ---
**Author:** ![peccavi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/peccavi/32/388_2.png) [@peccavi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peccavi)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2026, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2026-oscars-celebrating-films-of-2025-nominations-predictions-discussion/1026926/91 "2026-03-11T16:05:29Z")
Predict…Want. Whatever it takes… [![](https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSbm9GxoLAg1zRUsBVReGaX_OF05cPZsb_c-Q&s) ](https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSbm9GxoLAg1zRUsBVReGaX_OF05cPZsb_c-Q&s) (I voted my preferences) ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2026, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2026-oscars-celebrating-films-of-2025-nominations-predictions-discussion/1026926/92 "2026-03-11T16:09:52Z")
Ah, okay. Every year I think I’m going to run a prediction contest here, every year I don’t get around to doing it… ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2026, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2026-oscars-celebrating-films-of-2025-nominations-predictions-discussion/1026926/93 "2026-03-11T16:17:10Z")
We used to do a poll contest for the Oscars every year. Anyone want to have one and knows a free site we can easily use to enter our picks and get scored? ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2026, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2026-oscars-celebrating-films-of-2025-nominations-predictions-discussion/1026926/94 "2026-03-11T18:46:39Z")
Here’s an EW article where four voters talk about how they voted in the major categories, and their reasons, which range from the idiosyncratic to interestingly observed. [Anonymous Oscars voters reveal Academy Awards picks, slam Timothée Chalamet](https://ew.com/2026-oscars-secret-ballot-anonymous-academy-voters-reveal-picks-11922306) ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2026, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2026-oscars-celebrating-films-of-2025-nominations-predictions-discussion/1026926/95 "2026-03-11T18:54:13Z")
> [@peccavi](#): > > Will Win: _One Battle After Another_ Geez, I hope you’re wrong about that – virtually all of the other Best Picture nominees are more worthy! > [@peccavi](#): > > Will Win: Jessie Buckley (_Hamnet_) I could live with that, but would much prefer Renate Reinsve gets Best Actress for _Sentimental Value_. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2026, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2026-oscars-celebrating-films-of-2025-nominations-predictions-discussion/1026926/96 "2026-03-12T21:11:36Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > would much prefer Renate Reinsve gets Best Actress for _Sentimental Value_. Not for nothing, you’ve now mentioned this for the third time in this thread. I haven’t seen _Sentimental Value_ yet, but the trailer looked charming, so I’m planning to get to it. And I definitely know who’s performance to look forward to 😉 ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2026, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2026-oscars-celebrating-films-of-2025-nominations-predictions-discussion/1026926/97 "2026-03-12T21:22:22Z")
> [@ShadowFacts](#): > > > [@wolfpup](#): > > > > would much prefer Renate Reinsve gets Best Actress for _Sentimental Value_. > > Not for nothing, you’ve now mentioned this for the third time in this thread. It’s mostly all in the subtleties, especially her interactions with Stellan Skarsgård, who was also nominated. Also, I have to admit I have a crush on Renate Reinsve. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2026-oscars-celebrating-films-of-2025-nominations-predictions-discussion/1026926/98 "2026-03-13T00:08:40Z")
Watched Sinners tonight. Pretty good, around a 78, a familiar plot muchly redeemed by the last 1/3. Michael B Jordan is really something…not so much the playing twins thing, but the way he can shift emotions from moment to moment in a scene. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2026-oscars-celebrating-films-of-2025-nominations-predictions-discussion/1026926/99 "2026-03-13T02:49:47Z")
Watched Sentimental Value tonight. My favorite of the eight we’ve seen so far, everyone was fantastic in it. Renate Reinsve’s character feels like an extension of her character in The Worst Person in the World (another film she did with Trier), just older and more worn. 87. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2026-oscars-celebrating-films-of-2025-nominations-predictions-discussion/1026926/100 "2026-03-13T17:41:00Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > it lacks the charm of Yorgos Lanthimos’ previous _Poor Things_. Holy shit, I have never seen a movie damned as much as this quote damns _Bugonia_. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2026-oscars-celebrating-films-of-2025-nominations-predictions-discussion/1026926.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2026-oscars-celebrating-films-of-2025-nominations-predictions-discussion/1026926.md?page=6)