# The 2026 Oscars (celebrating films of 2025) - nominations, predictions, discussion **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Tags:** movies\ **Created:** [January 22, 2026, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2026-oscars-celebrating-films-of-2025-nominations-predictions-discussion/1026926 "2026-01-22T15:11:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 1\ **Showing post:** 85
**Author:** ![peccavi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/peccavi/32/388_2.png) [@peccavi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peccavi)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2026, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2026-oscars-celebrating-films-of-2025-nominations-predictions-discussion/1026926/85 "2026-03-10T23:35:05Z")
All the major precursor awards have been settled, the votes are all in, I think it’s time for me to provide some predictions, otherwise I’ll probably forget to. I’m not going to try to cover every award, because I don’t really care about a lot of them. Because I’m a realist and I do my homework, I’m going to separate the likely winners (Will Win) from my preference (Should Win) **Best Picture** – This race is tight, but only between _Sinners_ and _One Battle After Another._ Honestly, it could go either way. I think the voters will slightly favor the more ”traditional” nominee. Will Win: _One Battle After Another_ Should Win: _Hamnet_ **Best Director** – If this was bracketology, I’d be going with “chalk” here, though it isn’t unprecedented for the Best Director winner to not be the director of the Best Picture, in which case, bet on Ryan Coogler (_Sinners_) Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson (_One Battle After Another_) Should Win: Chloé Zhao (_Hamnet_) **Best Actress** – The only mortal lock in the major categories, she’s won just about every major precursor award and her performance is right down the sweet spot of the Actors Branch, the largest voting membership. Will Win: Jessie Buckley (_Hamnet_) Should Win: Jessie Buckley (_Hamnet_) **Best Actor** – What looked like a runaway for Chalamet at the start of the year, with DiCaprio a close second now looks like it is going to be Jordan in a very tight race, with DiCaprio having faded badly in the precursors, especially SAG. Will Win: Michael B Jordan (_Sinners_) Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio (_One Battle After Another_) **Best Supporting Actress** – This one has narrowed to a three-way race among Amy Madigan (_Weapons_), Wunmi Mosaku (_Sinners_), and Teyana Taylor (_One Battle After Another_), and it’s almost too close to call. Madigan won SAG and gets to play a standout evil villain but the movie didn’t get much Academy love. Mosaku gets some choice scenes but is in a smaller supporting role. Taylor has a meaty role, but the character may be too unsympathetic for the voters. Let’s flip some coins… Will Win: Amy Madigan (_Weapons_) Should Win: Amy Madigan (_Weapons_) **Best Supporting Actor** – Worthy performances by all the nominees, all genuinely supporting roles. This is another tight race that is tough to predict. Sean Penn (_One Battle After Another_) is a polarizing person but seems to have gained the momentum just before the voting closed (SAG again). Will his vote split with Del Toro and allow either Elordi or Skarsgård to slide by? Maybe. Maybe not. Will Win: Sean Penn (_One Battle After Another_) Should Win: Benicio Del Toro (_One Battle After Another_) Some odds and ends- _Sentimental Value_ is the favorite for the **International Feature Award** and is also a deserving candidate. Nomination for both this award and Best Picture is usually a solid indicator. _Sinners_ and _One Battle After Another_ aren’t competing in the **Screenplay** categories, so I expect them to walk away with their respective awards. _K-Pop Demon Hunters_ is likely to win both **Best Animated Feature** and **Best Original Song** , mostly because it’s massively popular with the Academy voters’ grandkids (OK, OK, I kid. Try the veal). I really, really liked _Little Amélie or the Character of Rain_ but it doesn’t have a chance. --- _[View the full topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-2026-oscars-celebrating-films-of-2025-nominations-predictions-discussion/1026926)._