# The abortion issue is a losing issue for Republicans **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 22, 2013, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-abortion-issue-is-a-losing-issue-for-republicans/647999 "2013-01-22T13:48:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2013, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-abortion-issue-is-a-losing-issue-for-republicans/647999/21 "2013-01-23T19:55:29Z")
Eh, I don’t think I’d make too much out of it. There was a lot of pro-life triumphalism a few years ago when polls showed the public moved a few points in that direction. Now the polls are basically returning to what they were previously, so we see the same thing on the pro-choice side. I think the moral of the story is that if somethings been stable for a long time, your first guess when polls show it starting to shift is that its either statistical noise or just a temporary artefact created by events (like Obama’s election) making certain demographics more likely to talk to pollsters. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2013, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-abortion-issue-is-a-losing-issue-for-republicans/647999/22 "2013-01-25T00:41:34Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > The second sentence you speak of provides no evidence that suggests that young people oppose Roe v Wade any more than society as a whole, and I did mention the data you refer to in the third sentence. I urge you to read my post more carefully. The shifting of the goalposts aside, you made a very specific claim, to which I responded. You said that (well, to be fair, you said you don’t think) the abortion issue isn’t moving in the direction of Republicans. I gave you a link which states otherwise. To that point you never responded. Now, I’d love to see how you spin going from a +16 Democrat advantage down to a +5 Democrat advantage on the abortion issue to be a bad trend for Republicans, especially considering the fact that the percentage of people who think the Republicans best represent their views on abortion rose five percent since March 2012 while the percentage of people who thought the Democrats best represents their views on abortion fell by six percent over the same time span. Now sure, you can point to the fact that majorities want to uphold Roe v. Wade, but as I’ve been over ad nauseam, there is a large segment of the population who don’t want to overturn Roe v. Wade who also don’t know what issue Roe v. Wade dealt with. Unless you’re trying to claim victory in ignorance, it isn’t much of a point to make. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2013, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-abortion-issue-is-a-losing-issue-for-republicans/647999/23 "2013-01-25T00:47:51Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > What, if anything, do you think we should take from this? That the educational system on the U.S. is severely lacking. (I’m reminded of a scene from “Monster in Law” when one of the main characters asks some young chick her views of Roe v. Wade and the young chick says she doesn’t watch boxing.) ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2013, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-abortion-issue-is-a-losing-issue-for-republicans/647999/24 "2013-01-25T00:55:21Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > The shifting of the goalposts aside, you made a very specific claim, to which I responded. You said that (well, to be fair, you said you don’t think) the abortion issue isn’t moving in the direction of Republicans. I gave you a link which states otherwise. To that point you never responded. Now, I’d love to see how you spin going from a +16 Democrat advantage down to a +5 Democrat advantage on the abortion issue to be a bad trend for Republicans, especially considering the fact that the percentage of people who think the Republicans best represent their views on abortion rose five percent since March 2012 while the percentage of people who thought the Democrats best represents their views on abortion fell by six percent over the same time span. > > Now sure, you can point to the fact that majorities want to uphold Roe v. Wade, but as I’ve been over ad nauseam, there is a large segment of the population who don’t want to overturn Roe v. Wade who also don’t know what issue Roe v. Wade dealt with. Unless you’re trying to claim victory in ignorance, it isn’t much of a point to make. It’s pretty simple, and I think I did address it. That’s one number that’s going in the Republicans’ direction, but there are several other numbers from that poll and the poll I cited that are moving in the Democrats’ direction. So I think the overall data from both polls supports my opinion that the Democrats are gaining ground on abortion. It’s possible they’ve lost ground in the last year- but all the other data from those polls shows the Democrats gaining ground in the long term (and other numbers show the Democrats gaining ground just in that year). By the way- I’m not certain of this, by any means. I’m less confident of this then I was of Obama’s victory. But nothing you’ve shown me (when looked at with all the data) makes me believe that it’s moving in the Republicans’ direction- and I think all the data together from the two polls looks better for abortion-rights supporters then for their opponents. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2013, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-abortion-issue-is-a-losing-issue-for-republicans/647999/25 "2013-01-25T01:02:31Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > That the educational system on the U.S. is severely lacking. That’s silly. Roe v. Wade happened in 1973, and most of it [isn’t even good law anymore](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planned_Parenthood_v._Casey). Abortion may be a loudly argued political issue, but the political controversy is hardly something you’d expect to get taught in schools (perhaps specifically because it’s a loudly argued issue). It’s not as though it’s celebrated a la _Brown v. Board of Education_. ---
**Author:** ![WhyNot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/c77e96/32.png) [@WhyNot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WhyNot)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2013, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-abortion-issue-is-a-losing-issue-for-republicans/647999/26 "2013-01-25T01:21:44Z")
It may be a losing issue in terms of no one being willing to reverse RvW outright, but I’m afraid they’re winning in terms of making it ridiculously hard to get an actual abortion in many places. > [@](#): > > There are fewer doctors willing to perform the procedure and fewer abortion clinics open for business. Pro-choice activists have been outflanked by their prolife counterparts, who have successfully lobbied for state-based regulations that limit access. Scores of states now require women to undergo counseling, waiting periods or ultrasounds prior to obtaining abortions. Minors across the country must often get permission from their parents if they want to terminate pregnancies. And pro-life state legislators are passing laws that require clinics to comply with arcane requirements—such as a hallway having to be more than five feet wide— that make it difficult for them to stay open. > > Read more: [Is the Pro-Choice Movement Is Losing the Fight for Abortion Rights? | TIME.com](http://ideas.time.com/2013/01/03/has-the-fight-for-abortion-rights-been-lost/#ixzz2IweuGXou) > [@](#): > > Last year, 19 states enacted a total of 43 provisions limiting access to abortion, according to the Guttmacher Institute. That was half the number that went into effect the previous year, but still the second-highest number since 1985. > > [U.S. News: Latest Breaking Stories, Video, and Photos on American Politics, Economy, and Society | NBC News](http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/01/21/16624980-40-years-after-roe-v-wade-more-states-restricting-abortion?lite) At least four states - North Dakota, South Dakota, Mississippi, and Arkansas - have only a single provider for abortion services. _ibid_ In 2005, well before these 43 provisions and more limiting access to abortion even further, [87% of counties had no access to abortion providers](http://hrc.nwlc.org/status-indicators/women-county-without-abortion-provider). 35% of women of reproductive age lived in those counties. Again, back in 2005, 97% of non-metropolitan counties had no abortion provider, and the numbers have only gotten worse. Abortion may still be legal on paper, but it’s becoming “rare” in the most chilling way possible. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2013, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-abortion-issue-is-a-losing-issue-for-republicans/647999/27 "2013-01-25T01:28:04Z")
OK, how many people _oppose_ Roe vs. Wade without knowing what it is? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2013, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-abortion-issue-is-a-losing-issue-for-republicans/647999/28 "2013-01-25T01:53:54Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > OK, how many people _oppose_ Roe vs. Wade without knowing what it is? It’s no contest. Wade is the best sturgeon-gutter on the Volga. But, 'tis caviare to the general. ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2013, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-abortion-issue-is-a-losing-issue-for-republicans/647999/29 "2013-01-25T01:56:30Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > However, the anti-abortion side doesn’t see it as “the abortion issue”, and I’m sure you know that they have been very successful, at the state level, in passing restrictions on abortion. They’re not getting the brass ring on this issue, but they are getting lots of consolations prizes. But that’s just it. Going for incremental/situational restrictions on abortion access at the state level, rather than campaigning for a federal reversal, was a _deliberate strategic shift_ on their part. It worked, both in materially shutting down services (several states have only one or a few clinics, Mississippi’s last one is on the brink; with travel burdens and legal hoops, many women have effectively no access), and in shifting a segment of the debate from _whether_ it is an appropriate area for government control, to _which_ women’s circumstances should be accepted. Like **WhyNot** said. > [@iiandyiiii](#): > > According to [this new poll](http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/nbc-wsj-poll-majority-want-abortion-legal-in): > > 54% say abortion should be legal all or most of the time (31% say “all the time”, 23% say “most of the time”). 70% believe the Roe v. Wade decision should be protected (including 57% who strongly support protecting Roe v. Wade), only 24% want it overturned. > > Some on this board have claimed that the abortion issue is moving in the direction of the Republican party- I think it’s pretty clear it’s not. In 1992, possibly the high point for abortion-rights opinion, 34% said abortion should be legal under any circumstances, and an additional 48% said legal under some circumstances. Only 13% wanted it illegal in all circumstances. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2013, 7:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-abortion-issue-is-a-losing-issue-for-republicans/647999/30 "2013-01-25T07:21:49Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Did you mean people who confuse polls about being “pro-life” with polls about whether abortion should be legal or not? I think we’ve seen that many people self-identify as “pro-life”, meaning they wouldn’t get an abortion themselves, but they still don’t want all abortions to be illegal. Exactly. It’s not a division between people who want to have abortions and people who want to make abortions illegal. It’s a division between people who want to make abortions illegal and people who don’t want the government to tell them whether or not they can get an abortion. While the pro-life crowd may be really committed to their position and vote 100% with Republicans on that basis, the Republicans can’t afford to ignore the very large demographic that is strongly pro-choice - women voters. The Republicans cannot afford to let women voters become a Democratic voting bloc. On a related note, a Republican state representative in New Mexico just introduced a bill that would bring criminal charges against rape victims who get an abortion for “tampering with evidence of a crime” ([seriously](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/24/new-mexico-abortion-bill_n_2541894.html)). It won’t pass - the Democrats have a majority in both halves of the New Mexican legislature - but which party do you think will benefit more from this proposal? ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2013, 7:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-abortion-issue-is-a-losing-issue-for-republicans/647999/31 "2013-01-25T07:39:14Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Exactly. It’s not a division between people who want to have abortions and people who want to make abortions illegal. It’s a division between people who want to make abortions illegal and people who don’t want the government to tell them whether or not they can get an abortion. > > While the pro-life crowd may be really committed to their position and vote 100% with Republicans on that basis, the Republicans can’t afford to ignore the very large demographic that is strongly pro-choice - women voters. The Republicans cannot afford to let women voters become a Democratic voting bloc. There is little difference between men and women in polls regarding whether abortion should be legal or not. If the Republicans are losing women it is due to issues beside abortion. > [@](#): > > On a related note, a Republican state representative in New Mexico just introduced a bill that would bring criminal charges against rape victims who get an abortion for “tampering with evidence of a crime” ([seriously](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/24/new-mexico-abortion-bill_n_2541894.html)). It won’t pass - the Democrats have a majority in both halves of the New Mexican legislature - but which party do you think will benefit more from this proposal? I half-expected that the link was to the _Onion_… If Planned Parenthood or NARAL was to hire somebody to be a deep cover agent to discredit the pro-life movement they could hardly have done a better job. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2013, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-abortion-issue-is-a-losing-issue-for-republicans/647999/32 "2013-01-25T14:41:47Z")
It’s being discussed in a couple of other threads and the proponent now claims she is trying to prevent rape victims from being forced to have abortions by their rapists (presumably under thread of more violence). Nobody is taking her seriously, of course. On the other hand, it’s refreshing to see a Republican _woman_ saying dumb things about rape babies. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2013, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-abortion-issue-is-a-losing-issue-for-republicans/647999/33 "2013-01-25T15:13:33Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > There is little difference between men and women in polls regarding whether abortion should be legal or not. If the Republicans are losing women it is due to issues beside abortion. In terms of opinion polls, the numbers may be close. But I feel there is a difference in terms of actual voting. I feel pro-choice men who are otherwise more in agreement with the Republican platform will tend to overlook a Republican’s pro-life position and vote for the Republican. But pro-choice women who are otherwise more in agreement with the Republican platform will tend to decide that a Republican’s pro-life position is a deal breaker and vote for the Democrat. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2013, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-abortion-issue-is-a-losing-issue-for-republicans/647999/34 "2013-01-26T03:11:46Z")
> [@](#): > > Quoth **Qin Shi Huangdi** : > > If the Republicans are losing women it is due to issues beside abortion. Or at least, due to issues not intrinsic to abortion. When Republican politicians use the abortion issue to try to defend rapists, that turns off a great many women (and many men, as well). There really oughtn’t to be any connection between the issues of abortion and rape, except that Republicans have themselves forced the connection. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2013, 1:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-abortion-issue-is-a-losing-issue-for-republicans/647999/35 "2013-01-28T13:01:27Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > According to [this new poll](http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/nbc-wsj-poll-majority-want-abortion-legal-in): > > 54% say abortion should be legal all or most of the time (31% say “all the time”, 23% say “most of the time”). 70% believe the Roe v. Wade decision should be protected (including 57% who strongly support protecting Roe v. Wade), only 24% want it overturned. > > Some on this board have claimed that the abortion issue is moving in the direction of the Republican party- I think it’s pretty clear it’s not. The problem with all of these abortion polls are the way the questions are asked. For example, how would many of those 31% who say “all of the time” would respond to such follow up questions as: 1. Should it be legal at 9 months of pregnancy? 2. Should it be legal for sex selection purposes? 3. Should it be legal for a 13 year old with no parental notification? ? Many would likely modify that “all of the time” position. When you ask it in a different way: [QUOTE=CNN/ORC Poll] “Do you think abortion should be legal under any circumstances, legal under only certain circumstances, or illegal in all circumstances?” If “legal under only certain circumstances”: “Do you think abortion should be legal in most circumstances or only a few circumstances?” 8/22-23/12 Always legal 35 Legal in most circumstances 9 Legal in a few circumstances 37 Always illegal 15 Unsure 3 [/QUOTE] Here you have a majority that implicitly reject the holding of Roe. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2013, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-abortion-issue-is-a-losing-issue-for-republicans/647999/36 "2013-01-28T13:51:16Z")
> [@jtgain](#): > > The problem with all of these abortion polls are the way the questions are asked. For example, how would many of those 31% who say “all of the time” would respond to such follow up questions as: > > 1. Should it be legal at 9 months of pregnancy? > 2. Should it be legal for sex selection purposes? > 3. Should it be legal for a 13 year old with no parental notification? > > ? > > Many would likely modify that “all of the time” position. > > When you ask it in a different way: > > Here you have a majority that implicitly reject the holding of Roe. The first poll I referenced does have these various categories- it breaks it down like this: Always legal … 31 Legal most of the time … 23 Illegal, with exceptions … 35 Illegal without any exceptions… 9 Not sure … 2 ---
**Author:** ![lance\_strongarm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/87869e/32.png) [@lance\_strongarm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lance_strongarm)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2013, 1:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-abortion-issue-is-a-losing-issue-for-republicans/647999/37 "2013-01-28T13:52:27Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > According to [this new poll](http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/nbc-wsj-poll-majority-want-abortion-legal-in): > > 54% say abortion should be legal all or most of the time (31% say “all the time”, 23% say “most of the time”). 70% believe the Roe v. Wade decision should be protected (including 57% who strongly support protecting Roe v. Wade), only 24% want it overturned. > > Some on this board have claimed that the abortion issue is moving in the direction of the Republican party- I think it’s pretty clear it’s not. But only one election is national. The rest are state and local. Views on abortion vary by state or congressional district. So some Republicans can win on a pro-life record. Still, it might not be a good way to win a House or Senate majority. The other question is whether it’s a salient issue - one that most people base their vote on. ---
**Author:** ![lance\_strongarm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/87869e/32.png) [@lance\_strongarm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lance_strongarm)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2013, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-abortion-issue-is-a-losing-issue-for-republicans/647999/38 "2013-01-28T13:55:02Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Or at least, due to issues not intrinsic to abortion. When Republican politicians use the abortion issue to try to defend rapists, that turns off a great many women (and many men, as well). There really oughtn’t to be any connection between the issues of abortion and rape, except that Republicans have themselves forced the connection. Well, to be fair, some (like Mourdock) weren’t defending rapists, just saying that they believe abortion is always wrong. I respect him for being consistent in his beliefs, even if I don’t agree. The worst hypocrites are those who would ban abortion but with a rape/incest exception. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2013, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-abortion-issue-is-a-losing-issue-for-republicans/647999/39 "2013-01-28T15:07:39Z")
> [@jtgain](#): > > Here you have a majority that implicitly reject the holding of Roe. Well, not necessarily. It’s a stupidly worded question, as you note. Does “a few circumstances” mean “rape and/or incest”, or “until the end of the first trimester”? ---
**Author:** ![YogSothoth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/8edcca/32.png) [@YogSothoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YogSothoth)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2013, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-abortion-issue-is-a-losing-issue-for-republicans/647999/40 "2013-01-28T21:35:17Z")
I was listening to talk radio this morning and the host brought up a good point, one that is usually ignored by those who are pro-life. Should the unthinkable happen and abortion is made illegal, these people should have to answer how long a jail sentence they think a woman seeking an abortion should get, and how long a sentence should doctors who perform them get. So many people are squicked out by abortion when broken down by different scenarios but I don’t think many of them would want the woman to be jailed for it. For the same people who would vote to make illegal a minor getting an abortion, these pro-lifers should have to answer how long in jail does the minor deserve. There is a human cost to abortion. People focus too much on the fetus but there are survivors and victims that are left and are being ignored [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-abortion-issue-is-a-losing-issue-for-republicans/647999.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-abortion-issue-is-a-losing-issue-for-republicans/647999.md?page=3)