# The Amazing Race 11/30/04 "Counting Bears Is Not Rocket Science" **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [November 30, 2004, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-amazing-race-11-30-04-counting-bears-is-not-rocket-science/277346 "2004-11-30T16:38:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 7\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![scotandrsn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a4c791/32.png) [@scotandrsn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scotandrsn)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2004, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-amazing-race-11-30-04-counting-bears-is-not-rocket-science/277346/81 "2004-12-03T21:58:00Z")
> [@scotandrsn](#): > > …if Lena had sat around and done nothing the whole time, her odds would have been 12/162, or still 2/27 by the time Don found his clue. > > Soon her odds of finding a clue are 12/160: 7.5%, or about 1 in 13 (2 bales unrolled) > Then 12/150: 8%, or about 1 in 12.5 (12 bales unrolled) > Then 12/140: 8.5%, or about 1 in 11.6 (22 bales unrolled) > Then 12/130: 9.2%, or about 1 in 11 (32 bales unrolled) > Then 12/120: 10%, or 1 in 10 (42 bales unrolled) > Then 12/110: 10.9%, or 1 in 9 (52 bales unrolled) > Then 12/100: 12%, or 1 in 8.3 (62 bales unrolled) > Then 12/90: 13.3% or 1 in 7 (72 bales unrolled) > Then 12/80: 15% or 1 in 6.6 (82 bales unrolled) > Then 12/70: 17.1%, or 1 in 5.8 (92 bales unrolled) > Then 12/60: 20%, or 1 in 5 (102 bales unrolled) > Then 12/50: 24% or about 1 in 4 (112 bales unrolled) NOW I realize what’s bugging me and why I bothered to do this! By the time Phil stopped her, she should have been able to find more than one clue (assuming she wasn’t stopping once she found one for some reason). My college Statistics course is coming back to me. Her odds being 1 in 13.5 to start, then, on average, by the time she’d unrolled 100 bales (not impossible if she really was out there for , she’d have found 7 or 8 clues. That’s the most likely outcome, and the odds of finding more or less than that, assuming a standard distribution, taper off in both directions. I don’t remember how you’d calculate it in this instance, but a standard deviation tells you what’s most likely. Such as, 65% likely that she’d find 6-9 clues in that many tries, and 95% likely that she’d find, say 5-10 clues. The likelihood that she’d stumble across absolutely no clues is so small that you have to start looking at factors other than random chance to explain it. It seems possible that she’d overlook a clue or two, but not 5-10. And certainly not without at least one of the cameramen on site noticing it and giving us the heartbreaking close-up. So something screwy was going on in that field. Something veeeeeeerrrry screwy indeed… :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2004, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-amazing-race-11-30-04-counting-bears-is-not-rocket-science/277346/82 "2004-12-03T23:59:25Z")
> [@scotandrsn](#): > > The likelihood that she’d stumble across absolutely no clues is so small that you have to start looking at factors other than random chance to explain it…So something screwy was going on in that field. Something veeeeeeerrrry screwy indeed… :dubious: Not that screwy. See posts #67 and #68. The chance of not finding a clue in one bale: 250/270 (very high). Not finding one in 2 bales: 250/270 \* 249/269. Still good. Not finding one in 100 bales: 250/270 \* 249/269 \*… \* 150/170. Better than 12%. So she was unlucky, but not _insanely_ unlucky. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2004, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-amazing-race-11-30-04-counting-bears-is-not-rocket-science/277346/83 "2004-12-04T00:12:30Z")
> [@jsc1953](#): > > Not that screwy. See posts #67 and #68. The chance of not finding a clue in one bale: 250/270 (very high). Not finding one in 2 bales: 250/270 \* 249/269. Still good. Not finding one in 100 bales: 250/270 \* 249/269 \*… \* 150/170. Better than 12%. > > So she was unlucky, but not _insanely_ unlucky. Check your math, I get it to be closer to 1 in 10,000. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2004, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-amazing-race-11-30-04-counting-bears-is-not-rocket-science/277346/84 "2004-12-04T00:13:35Z")
I mean, 1 in 2000. ---
**Author:** ![Fenris](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fenris/32/498_2.png) [@Fenris](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fenris)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2004, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-amazing-race-11-30-04-counting-bears-is-not-rocket-science/277346/85 "2004-12-04T00:55:26Z")
> [@zut](#): > > Y’ I wonder if Johnathon is some kind of asshole sink that attracts particles of assholishness, stripping it bit by bit from the other teams as the race goes on, thus making everyone else not only look better, but _be_ better? It bears thinking about. If only he were an entrepeneur, he could probably bottle that skill and make a mint. Actually there’s something to this—in a small group, having one person with _really_ over-the-top outrageous behavior tends to cause everyone else in the group to act better and to bond together against the psycho. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2004, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-amazing-race-11-30-04-counting-bears-is-not-rocket-science/277346/86 "2004-12-04T02:30:04Z")
All I know is that there is a 1/1 chance that I am bummed that the cute sisters got bumped off, especially after that Rocky-esque gut check of Lena’s. Somehow I am even more bummed after going to the Amazing Race website and reading this: “Lena is a student and former striptease aerobics instructor.” :eek: Wow! Cute, incredibly gutsy, and a (former) striptease aerobics instructor. CBS, please bring them back for the next Amazing Race! ---
**Author:** ![Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e19adc/32.png) [@Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2004, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-amazing-race-11-30-04-counting-bears-is-not-rocket-science/277346/87 "2004-12-04T15:11:12Z")
I hate, hate, HATE the needle in a haystack roadblocks. Last season’s chocoholic binge was brutal, with Team Pizza arriving very early and watching the entire field pass them by as they failed to find a white chocolate. This year was the same thing. Hell, when you’re there for 5 hours and the last two teams come up, you might as well give up right there. I don’t think Lena ever missed a clue. She just got unlucky unrolling the hay, and that blows. There’s literally nothing you can do in that situation except blame dumb luck. As for the cameramen, they’re probably not informed as to which bales had clues in them. I don’t even think the producers would bother keeping track. Assuming that the clue had to be inserted in the hay when it was rolled, how would you mark the bales in a manner that wouldn’t be noticeable when the bales were dumped in the field? And why bother telling the cameramen? All they’ll do is accidentally tell a contestant which one has a clue, and then your competiton is screwed. As for the yield, you can easily see the roadblock/detour from the yield point–you just don’t know exactly what the roadblock entails unless you see a team actually doing it-- and the last two teams to arrive at the yield would have spotted the Mormon’s bike, Kristy sitting down, and Lena pushing hay. Last season C&C gave Chip and Kim the evil eye the entire time they were pimping a jeepney. But it really is a useless item. This early in the race, all it is likely to do is create an enemy, and the odds of actually eliminating a team are slim. And someone wanted extra footage? Check CBS’s website for TAR. They’ve got photos, interviews, and other goodies. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-amazing-race-11-30-04-counting-bears-is-not-rocket-science/277346.md?page=4)