# The American Media Wakes Up - \*My Gosh!\* A Possibility of Nuclear War! **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 30, 2002, 5:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-american-media-wakes-up-my-gosh-a-possibility-of-nuclear-war/111501 "2002-05-30T05:01:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Duckster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duckster/32/1244_2.png) [@Duckster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duckster)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2002, 5:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-american-media-wakes-up-my-gosh-a-possibility-of-nuclear-war/111501/1 "2002-05-30T05:01:49Z")
Well, the NBC Nightly News finally ran with a lead story tonight on the possibilities of nuclear war between India and Pakistan. (See [http://www.msnbc.com/news/753586.asp](http://www.msnbc.com/news/753586.asp) and click on the “Play Video” link for the actual story.) [Did anyone catch the CBS, ABC, FOX and/or CNN top stoies today to see if any of them ran it as a lead?] One of the comments raised involves the US government is past the planning stages. The US is actively working on worst-case scenarios, including evacuating Americans and other Allied peoples on very short notice. The story claims they may have to evacuate some 250,000 people. However, the story ends with a deadline - US experts believe India and Pakistan will be ready to go to war in three weeks. Will the US be able to do it? If we start with the three week deadline scenario as proposed, how will the US move its elephant-sized apparatus into action and even attempt such a mission? Of course, it’s going to be the military because no civilian effort is possible, not to mention the discipline issue (“You want _me_ to stand here while a nuclear weapon could grace my presence at any time? Yeah, right!”) The only troops available will have to come from the current War on Terrorism in/near Afghanistan. How will this play out with the folks back home? They are already scared John/Jane is in a war zone. Now they may have to contend that John/Jane might not die from a bullet, mortar or landmine, but the possibilities to be vaporized, or worse, die a lingering death from radiation poisoning if the buttons are pushed. Staying with the three week deadline, is the US government, abet through the mass media, _really_ ready with its game plan of dealing with this issue with the American People, let alone the rest of the planet? Other threads on the SDMB are dealing with specific aspects of this overwhelming issue, but when will such frank opinions and thought make it to mainstream media, if at all? With the latest news that neither India nor Pakistan show any signs of backing down from the respective bravados, will third-party efforts (the UK, the USA, other countries) be enough to somehow stand down? If India and Pakistan actually go to war, will their individual ego-wankings cloud their judgements that nuclear war will ultimately be the only option? Yes, many (most?) people will focus on the potential environmental issues (radiation), but what about the economic issues? Shall we expect major hits on world markets? Will the recovering economies stall, nosedive, or something else? As time draws near and uncertainties grow (War? Nuclear war?) will there be a run on groceries? Gasoline? Yeah, yeah, I know. But remember most of the teeming millions will **not** take the time to think any of this through, and instead, may exacerbate non-problems here at home (regardless if “home” as defined as the USA, Europe, Australia, etc.) Hmmm … ---
**Author:** ![Tranquilis](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tranquilis/32/3639_2.png) [@Tranquilis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tranquilis)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2002, 5:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-american-media-wakes-up-my-gosh-a-possibility-of-nuclear-war/111501/2 "2002-05-30T05:53:11Z")
You know, the American media has been reporting on this periodically ever since the first Indian device test was detected. If you’ve been reading the papers, or checking websites, you’ll have seen plenty on the subject in the last few weeks and even months from American media. It’s not even really ‘news’ anymore, it’s just more of the same: India and Pakistan have nukes, don’t much like each other, and are rattling sabers again. So what else is new…? ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2002, 6:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-american-media-wakes-up-my-gosh-a-possibility-of-nuclear-war/111501/3 "2002-05-30T06:12:17Z")
I’m with **Tranquilis** on this. When Pakistan conducted its first nuclear tests, it was major news and it’s remained simmering ever since. The fact that it didn’t get screaming 72-point headlines every day doesn’t mean the Americans (or the American media) were ignorant or indifferent. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2002, 12:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-american-media-wakes-up-my-gosh-a-possibility-of-nuclear-war/111501/4 "2002-05-30T12:39:11Z")
I’ve been hearing about the possibility of nuclear war between India and Pakistan for years. Nobody’s just “waking up” now. This is an old story. They aren’t any closer than they were six months ago when this last flared up. ---
**Author:** ![pldennison](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/9fc29f/32.png) [@pldennison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pldennison)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2002, 12:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-american-media-wakes-up-my-gosh-a-possibility-of-nuclear-war/111501/5 "2002-05-30T12:46:03Z")
In fact, the headline on this morning’s _Financial Times_ – usually considered a pretty reputable source of international news – reads, “Possibility of war between India, Pakistan recedes.” ---
**Author:** ![smiling\_bandit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e9a140/32.png) [@smiling\_bandit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smiling_bandit)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2002, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-american-media-wakes-up-my-gosh-a-possibility-of-nuclear-war/111501/6 "2002-05-30T13:14:07Z")
It may not be that bad for us economically. India isn’t such a big supplier of goods to the West. The fallout shouldn’t hit the big Oil-producing states any worse than anywhere else. ---
**Author:** ![tracer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tracer/32/20578_2.png) [@tracer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tracer)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2002, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-american-media-wakes-up-my-gosh-a-possibility-of-nuclear-war/111501/7 "2002-05-30T14:12:40Z")
smiling bandit wrote: > [@](#): > > It may not be that bad for us economically. […] The fallout shouldn’t hit the big Oil-producing states any worse than anywhere else. Please tell me you meant the **economic** fallout, and not the other kind! \ ---
**Author:** ![SuaSponte](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/67e7ee/32.png) [@SuaSponte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SuaSponte)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2002, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-american-media-wakes-up-my-gosh-a-possibility-of-nuclear-war/111501/8 "2002-05-30T15:48:33Z")
**tracer,** I’m pretty sure he meant nuclear fallout. Why is that a problem for you? One is allowed to look past the horror of a possible event to the effects of said possible event. Sua ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2002, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-american-media-wakes-up-my-gosh-a-possibility-of-nuclear-war/111501/9 "2002-05-30T16:55:33Z")
I wouldn’t be worried too much about many of the concerns listed in the OP. First off India and Pakistan likely don’t have very many nukes at their disposal. Obviously even one nuke is bad but we’re not talking about armageddon here either. Second, any nuclear exchange would likely be confined to the combat areas in Kashmir. Wholesale nuking of cities is very unlikely unless one or the other country gets the upper hand and doesn’t stop at settling Kashmir but decides to go for the whole ball of wax and take the opposing country (and frankly India is the likely victor in a full-blown war with Pakistan if for no other reason than they vastly outnumber the Pakistanis). As a result American forces or civilians in India or Pakistan are unlikely to be anywhere near a nuclear exchange. Thirdly, the entire world takes a majorly dim view of any use of nuclear weapons. The first country to use them would make itself a pariah in a big way and quite possibly find much of the world throwing in with their enemy. All-in-all, even if there is a war again between India and Pakistan, I wouldn’t be overly worried about nukes entering the equation and even if they did I think both sides have too few to do major damage and would avoid blasting civilian populations instead opting to blast the army on the other side fo the field from them. ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2002, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-american-media-wakes-up-my-gosh-a-possibility-of-nuclear-war/111501/10 "2002-05-30T19:26:29Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Duckster \* > The only troops available will have to come from the current War on Terrorism in/near Afghanistan. How will this play out with the folks back home? They are already scared John/Jane is in a war zone. Now they may have to contend that John/Jane might not die from a bullet, mortar or landmine, but the possibilities to be vaporized, or worse, die a lingering death from radiation poisoning if the buttons are pushed. > \*\* Nothing better than two 3rd world countries with nuclear weapons who belive in reincarnation. I don’t think anyone will object to using American troops to evacuate US citizens from a war zone. As for using the troops in Afghanistan, IIRC most of them are Special Forces and other combat troops. Such an evacuation would require logistical personal more than anything else. ie Cargo plane crews, security type forces and whatever else these type of operations require. Environmental effects? I don’t think there would be any here in the US. ---
**Author:** ![SuaSponte](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/67e7ee/32.png) [@SuaSponte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SuaSponte)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2002, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-american-media-wakes-up-my-gosh-a-possibility-of-nuclear-war/111501/11 "2002-05-30T20:28:58Z")
Question, **msmith:** Where in the Koran is reincarnation mentioned? Thanks in advance, Sua ---
**Author:** ![Tars\_Tarkas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Tars\_Tarkas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tars_Tarkas)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2002, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-american-media-wakes-up-my-gosh-a-possibility-of-nuclear-war/111501/12 "2002-05-30T20:49:31Z")
I for one am tired of hearing about the possiblity of nuclear war every week or so from these two cry-baby nations. i abhor nuclear weapons, but maybe if Pakistan gets a good nuken, Osama will get his. ---
**Author:** ![Ottto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/e495f1/32.png) [@Ottto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ottto)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2002, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-american-media-wakes-up-my-gosh-a-possibility-of-nuclear-war/111501/13 "2002-05-30T21:57:18Z")
Fox has been talking about this for some time. From a purely logistical standpoint… India is almost sure to ‘win’ any nuclear war with Pakistan, due to the sheer size of India, and the much larger size of India’s nuclear arsenal. (Not to mention, more cabable, with a strong air as well as missle component). If India nukes Pakistan nice and good, it would in some ways make our job easier in Pakistan (no more wishy-washy Mussaraf to deal with), and make it more difficult (no more ports). We have all sorts of military capacity to spare. We have yet to reactivate the draft, the CRAF, etc. But getting enough evacuation-capable forces to the region quick enough would be a trick. In theory, the Marines could load a few thousand Americans onto the various assault ships, but that means leaving Marines behind, and that takes strategic options off the table. Ideally, we’d just pack em on airliners and fly them out of there. ---
**Author:** ![SuaSponte](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/67e7ee/32.png) [@SuaSponte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SuaSponte)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2002, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-american-media-wakes-up-my-gosh-a-possibility-of-nuclear-war/111501/14 "2002-05-30T22:05:33Z")
**Tars,** **Ottto** - thanks for bringing me into the light. Killing Osama and Mussaraf is self-evidently worth the deaths of millions of others. Sorry I was blind before. Sua ---
**Author:** ![Tars\_Tarkas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Tars\_Tarkas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tars_Tarkas)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2002, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-american-media-wakes-up-my-gosh-a-possibility-of-nuclear-war/111501/15 "2002-05-30T22:13:43Z")
Hey, i was just lookin’ on the bright side. The dark side would be that neat radioactive cloud that the wind would blow somewhere, never mind the massive dust particles that would cause good ole nuclear winter (small scale, probably). oh, and the death, but its not like i can seize all nuclear weapons from india and pakistan. It’d take some crack US commando teams to do that, along with sattelite surrvalience and radiation detectors. ---
**Author:** ![litost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c4cdca/32.png) [@litost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/litost)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2002, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-american-media-wakes-up-my-gosh-a-possibility-of-nuclear-war/111501/16 "2002-05-31T00:29:19Z")
Another Q: **msmith** , what makes you think policy makers in third-world (sic) countries are irrational to the point where a belief in reincarnation makes them nuclear-trigger-happy? I don’t know if you were only joking, but it smells of “we, in the first world are rational and would ever do anything as irrational as detonating nuclear weapons”… Not only has the US used the weapon, there were a few incidents during the Cold war where it almost _could_ have happened. It’s all about self-preservation. The current thinking is that if India penetrates into Pakistan deep enough that a defeat is imminent, Pakistan would detonate a nuclear device. ---
**Author:** ![clairobscur](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/839c29/32.png) [@clairobscur](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/clairobscur)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2002, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-american-media-wakes-up-my-gosh-a-possibility-of-nuclear-war/111501/17 "2002-05-31T03:02:26Z")
Plus, I heard that people in the west believe in eternal life and such silly stuff. That makes them too very likely to use nuclear weapons… ---
**Author:** ![Rossarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/3e96dc/32.png) [@Rossarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rossarian)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2002, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-american-media-wakes-up-my-gosh-a-possibility-of-nuclear-war/111501/18 "2002-05-31T03:59:22Z")
As has been said, this really is old news. They were far closer to nuclear war during the fighting over the Kargil Glacier a few years ago then they are now. And there was plenty of talk about a nuclear exchange back then. A conventional conflict will occur before any nuking happens I imagine, so you’d see more news if they got to the point of trading blows (at least beyond the constant tit-for-tat shelling.) As for the US evacuation and how it would be done… Sometimes evacuations of American citizens do require military deployments and helicopters full of special forces troops and the like, usually in a country that has tumbled into anarchy or something. But in this case, the most likely thing would be for the US government to inform all American citizens to get away from the India-Pakistan boder and get on a plane. It would be organized primarily by the state department. Military involvement would probably just be transport aircraft. I think bringing along a lot of guns wouldn’t be necessary as neither side poses a threat to American citizens, and wouldn’t want to piss of the Americans at the same time that they are trying to deal with their archenemy. ---
**Author:** ![Duck\_Duck\_Goose](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/50afbb/32.png) [@Duck\_Duck\_Goose](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duck_Duck_Goose)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2002, 4:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-american-media-wakes-up-my-gosh-a-possibility-of-nuclear-war/111501/19 "2002-05-31T04:37:59Z")
> [@](#): > > \*\*The US is actively working on worst-case scenarios, including evacuating Americans and other Allied peoples on very short notice. The story claims they may have to evacuate some 250,000 people. \*\* From today’s [CNN.com sidebar article](http://www.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/asiapcf/south/05/30/sasia.airlift/): > [@](#): > > State Department officials, a White House official and a military source said the United States routinely has such plans on behalf of Americans living outside the country, and that the planning gets a renewed look when tensions rise somewhere. > [@](#): > > **Of course, it’s going to be the military because no civilian effort is possible, not to mention the discipline issue.** > [@](#): > > Officials with the United States Central Command are working with the U.S. Embassy in Pakistan, while officials from the U.S. Pacific Command are working with the U.S. Embassy in India evaluating evacuation plans that would involve the removal of U.S. citizens through commercial aircraft and chartered aircraft and boats. > > \< snip \> > > The use of military equipment to evacuate U.S. citizens would be a last resort if there are no options for commercial or charter evacuation. > > “This is by no means a military-run operation; the State Department makes the call whether to evacuate personnel or not, the military option is available should the situation spiral downward,” an official told CNN Thursday. How they arrived at the “250,000” figure: > [@](#): > > The number of official U.S. non-military personnel in Pakistan numbers somewhere between 1,000 and 2,000. For India, there are around 60,000 Americans considered official U.S. personnel. > > The Pentagon official says the total number in India could go as high as 80,000, which would include U.S. business personnel and tourists. > > Officials say they multiply by three any “working” evacuation number, to plan ahead for other citizens, family members and non-governmental organizations that request to be taken out of the area. And… > [@](#): > > U.S. military officials say that there are no plans to remove U.S. troops in Pakistan, or military personnel training in India, which number around 200. I remember at Passover, how Some People were convinced that the Mideast was finally gonna blow, better stock up on toilet paper and evaporated milk… 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Protesilaus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/82dd89/32.png) [@Protesilaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Protesilaus)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2002, 6:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-american-media-wakes-up-my-gosh-a-possibility-of-nuclear-war/111501/20 "2002-05-31T06:13:01Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Tars Tarkas \* > \*\*its not like i can seize all nuclear weapons from india and pakistan. It’d take some crack US commando teams to do that, along with sattelite surrvalience and radiation detectors. \*\* Well, that, or Superman. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-american-media-wakes-up-my-gosh-a-possibility-of-nuclear-war/111501.md?page=2)