# The Anti-Romney Parade: Palin, Trump, Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Gingrich, Paul...Santorum?! **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 1, 2012, 12:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-anti-romney-parade-palin-trump-bachmann-perry-cain-gingrich-paul-santorum/608032 "2012-01-01T12:37:26Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2012, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-anti-romney-parade-palin-trump-bachmann-perry-cain-gingrich-paul-santorum/608032/21 "2012-01-03T16:38:57Z")
> [@smithsb](#): > > Congressmen who leave office can extend medical benefits by use of COBRA insurance. I believe it’s for up to 15 months. But there are no lifetime benefits as seems to circulate on the Interwebs periodically. Please note that Congresscritters also pay Social Security like other 'Mericans since 1984 also in contrast to various email claims. From [here:](http://usgovinfo.about.com/od/uscongress/a/congresspay.htm) > [@](#): > > Members of Congress receive retirement and health benefits under the same plans available to other federal employees. They become vested after five years of full participation. Doesn’t “vested” mean that once they leave, they can continue in the insurance program (obviously they have to pay for it, but presumably the Feds get a good group rate so its better then they’re likely to find elsewhere)? Santorum was in the Senate for more then five years, so I’d think he’d qualify. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2012, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-anti-romney-parade-palin-trump-bachmann-perry-cain-gingrich-paul-santorum/608032/22 "2012-01-03T19:45:38Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > No. > > The difference between Santorum’s support on Tuesday and Santorum’s support on Friday is significant, even at that level. Ditto Paul’s. And I’m looking at the MOE of a difference, here (which is basically the published MOE\*sqrt(2) when it’s the same MOE throughout, or 11.3% in this case) which is the only MOE that really counts with these things, AFAIAC. > > Also, the rolling 2-day results have a MOE of 5.6% (MOE of a difference: 7.9%), and Santorum’s rise from earlier in the week to later in the week is unquestionably significant by that measure. Ok, well I’ve been wrong about everything else in this thread, so lets just see if I can’t go for the sweep. 🙂 I took statistics many moons ago, so refresh my memory. Let’s take a three person race with an MOE of +/- 4%. We have a poll: Smith: 42% Jones: 38% Black: 20% Does that mean that each candidate can rise or fall by 4%? Could the “actual” results be: Smith 38, Jones 42, Black 24? or even Smith 46, Jones 34, Black 16? Or am I way off? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2012, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-anti-romney-parade-palin-trump-bachmann-perry-cain-gingrich-paul-santorum/608032/23 "2012-01-03T20:31:03Z")
You need to consult the official statistician at Car Talk Plaza, Ms. Marge N. Overra. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2012, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-anti-romney-parade-palin-trump-bachmann-perry-cain-gingrich-paul-santorum/608032/24 "2012-01-03T20:36:28Z")
> [@jtgain](#): > > I took statistics many moons ago, so refresh my memory. Let’s take a three person race with an MOE of +/- 4%. We have a poll: > > Smith: 42% > Jones: 38% > Black: 20% > > Does that mean that each candidate can rise or fall by 4%? Could the “actual” results be: > > Smith 38, Jones 42, Black 24? Only if 104% of the votes are counted. ---
**Author:** ![zamboniracer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e9a140/32.png) [@zamboniracer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zamboniracer)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2012, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-anti-romney-parade-palin-trump-bachmann-perry-cain-gingrich-paul-santorum/608032/25 "2012-01-03T21:16:05Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Only if 104% of the votes are counted. You say that like it is a problem. ;)😃 ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2012, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-anti-romney-parade-palin-trump-bachmann-perry-cain-gingrich-paul-santorum/608032/26 "2012-01-04T00:03:49Z")
> [@jtgain](#): > > Ok, well I’ve been wrong about everything else in this thread, so lets just see if I can’t go for the sweep. 🙂 > > I took statistics many moons ago, so refresh my memory. Let’s take a three person race with an MOE of +/- 4%. We have a poll: > > Smith: 42% > Jones: 38% > Black: 20% > > Does that mean that each candidate can rise or fall by 4%? Could the “actual” results be: > > Smith 38, Jones 42, Black 24? or even > Smith 46, Jones 34, Black 16? > > Or am I way off? What it means is that (assuming it’s a 95% MOE as usual) there’s a 95% chance that Smith’s support is between 38% and 46% at the time of the poll, and there’s a 95% chance that Jones’s support is between 34% and 42% at the time of the poll, and there’s a 95% chance that Black’s support is between 16% and 24% at the time of the poll. The chances that all of these things are true at once is somewhat less. But you can’t just take the product of .95\*.95\*.95 because these are dependent events. And the ‘at the time of the poll’ caveat is rather important. Even if the poll’s taken on Monday and the election’s on Tuesday, the MOE doesn’t say anything about how much the support of any candidate can rise or fall over time. A poll is an estimate of their support at a specific moment in time. I’ve got a kid at my elbow wanting to play, so I’ll talk about the MOE of a difference later. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2012, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-anti-romney-parade-palin-trump-bachmann-perry-cain-gingrich-paul-santorum/608032/27 "2012-01-04T00:09:36Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Santorum is a _Twilight_ fan! No, he’s an Italian. The family name is really Santoro. ---
**Author:** ![Grumman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/43a26b/32.png) [@Grumman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grumman)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2012, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-anti-romney-parade-palin-trump-bachmann-perry-cain-gingrich-paul-santorum/608032/28 "2012-01-04T00:17:39Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > But if you follow the link (to the single-day and rolling two-day results from the Des Moines Register poll taken Tuesday through Friday of this past week), it’s pretty clear that Ron Paul is the latest anti-Romney to have his bubble burst, and that Santorum’s polling in Iowa has been taking off like a rocket. Is there any reason to believe the last day’s polling is more important than the first day’s? Couldn’t that just indicate that Ron Paul’s supporters are more zealous in making sure their votes count, so they are more likely to vote early? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2012, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-anti-romney-parade-palin-trump-bachmann-perry-cain-gingrich-paul-santorum/608032/29 "2012-01-04T00:46:35Z")
> [@Grumman](#): > > Is there any reason to believe the last day’s polling is more important than the first day’s? Well, the last day is three days closer to the day of the caucus, so there’s less time for further changes in voter opinion. Also, to the extent it can be done on the basis of small daily samples, the polls capture the direction of change of voter support over time. > [@](#): > > Couldn’t that just indicate that Ron Paul’s supporters are more zealous in making sure their votes count, so they are more likely to vote early? No, this isn’t voting, this is polling. The pollster chose four random samples of households, and called them up on four consecutive evenings. People didn’t get to choose which sample they were in - they didn’t even get to choose whether they were in any of the samples or not, for that matter. Now if an _election_ was held over four days, and you had access to the daily totals, you’d be absolutely right: it wouldn’t matter which day a vote was cast on, and everybody would want to get their supporters to the polls on the earliest day possible, to make sure they didn’t forget to vote, or change their mind. ---
**Author:** ![Grumman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/43a26b/32.png) [@Grumman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grumman)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2012, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-anti-romney-parade-palin-trump-bachmann-perry-cain-gingrich-paul-santorum/608032/30 "2012-01-04T00:50:55Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > No, this isn’t voting, this is polling. The pollster chose four random samples of households, and called them up on four consecutive evenings… Ah, you’re right - I missed the word “likely” in there. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2012, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-anti-romney-parade-palin-trump-bachmann-perry-cain-gingrich-paul-santorum/608032/31 "2012-01-04T03:32:13Z")
Speaking of voting, it’s been happening, and with 49% of the precincts reporting, we have: ```auto Candidate votes % Santorum 13,594 24.3 Romney 13,204 23.6 Paul 12,205 21.8 Newt 7,426 13.3 Perry 5,671 10.1 Bachmann 3,140 5.6 ``` And nobody else breaking 1%. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2012, 7:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-anti-romney-parade-palin-trump-bachmann-perry-cain-gingrich-paul-santorum/608032/32 "2012-01-04T07:07:58Z")
Technically, Santorum won. Laugh or scream. Shit or go bowling. ---
**Author:** ![Farmer\_Jane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/bbe5ce/32.png) [@Farmer\_Jane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Farmer_Jane)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2012, 7:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-anti-romney-parade-palin-trump-bachmann-perry-cain-gingrich-paul-santorum/608032/33 "2012-01-04T07:08:56Z")
Piling up on the popular guy happens all the time, no ? ---
**Author:** ![Farmer\_Jane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/bbe5ce/32.png) [@Farmer\_Jane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Farmer_Jane)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2012, 7:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-anti-romney-parade-palin-trump-bachmann-perry-cain-gingrich-paul-santorum/608032/34 "2012-01-04T07:12:49Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Technically, Santorum won. Laugh or scream. Shit or go bowling. According to CNN, he won by FOUR votes. _blinks_ I don’t know if it is going to be by 14 votes or 4, but this is a bigger win for Santorum. On the one hand, he’s the not Romney. On the other hand, he’s also _really_ not Ron Paul. Did any Doper call the Santorum thing? I’m actually surprised he didn’t do better…I’d say the economy and the war really threw it with RP in the race. edit: Santorum also wins a shit ton of free media for the next few weeks. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2012, 7:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-anti-romney-parade-palin-trump-bachmann-perry-cain-gingrich-paul-santorum/608032/35 "2012-01-04T07:30:57Z")
The writers at the _Daily Show_ are offering prayers of thanks to various pagan deities. ---
**Author:** ![Nametag](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nametag/32/406_2.png) [@Nametag](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nametag)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2012, 7:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-anti-romney-parade-palin-trump-bachmann-perry-cain-gingrich-paul-santorum/608032/36 "2012-01-04T07:44:46Z")
Nate Silver at [fivethirtyeight.com](http://fivethirtyeight.com) called it, sort of – against his own model, sort of. He analyzed Iowa’s historical response to momentum, calculated momentum numbers for the candidates, and declared that Santorum could squeak out a win (this Iowa-specific model also had Romney in third place, but it was a pretty savvy analysis all the same). Oh, and Santorum didn’t win by four votes, he was four votes ahead with one precinct remaining. The NYT has Romney winning by eight votes. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2012, 12:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-anti-romney-parade-palin-trump-bachmann-perry-cain-gingrich-paul-santorum/608032/37 "2012-01-04T12:10:58Z")
> [@Nametag](#): > > Nate Silver at [fivethirtyeight.com](http://fivethirtyeight.com) called it, sort of – against his own model, sort of. He analyzed Iowa’s historical response to momentum, calculated momentum numbers for the candidates, and declared that Santorum could squeak out a win (this Iowa-specific model also had Romney in third place, but it was a pretty savvy analysis all the same). > > Oh, and Santorum didn’t win by four votes, he was four votes ahead with one precinct remaining. The NYT has Romney winning by eight votes. Yep. Clinton county gave Romney the push he needed to win at the end. ---
**Author:** ![Death\_of\_Rats](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a6a055/32.png) [@Death\_of\_Rats](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Death_of_Rats)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2012, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-anti-romney-parade-palin-trump-bachmann-perry-cain-gingrich-paul-santorum/608032/38 "2012-01-04T14:52:30Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > Yep. **Clinton** county gave Romney the push he needed to win at the end. (bolding mine) You know, there is a certain poeticness to that that. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2012, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-anti-romney-parade-palin-trump-bachmann-perry-cain-gingrich-paul-santorum/608032/39 "2012-01-04T15:57:13Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > Santorum and Paul duking it out with Romney for the lead in Iowa? Only one explanation: alternate timeline. Which one of you bastards went back in time and shot Hitler … again? :mad: I should confess now: I took a shot, but it missed and he just got a few small scratches on his face, one on his upper lip. I’m sure it didn’t change anything… ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2012, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-anti-romney-parade-palin-trump-bachmann-perry-cain-gingrich-paul-santorum/608032/40 "2012-01-05T15:24:16Z")
Amid all the fuss over Santorum on abortion and personal sexual matters, the press is now digging into his record on things like earmarks. He’s now raising much more money but the New Hampshire primary is only a few days away. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-anti-romney-parade-palin-trump-bachmann-perry-cain-gingrich-paul-santorum/608032.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-anti-romney-parade-palin-trump-bachmann-perry-cain-gingrich-paul-santorum/608032.md?page=3)