The Bell Curve

Welcome aboard, Hentor.

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I intentionally avoided using real numbers because I wanted to focus on the structure of the argument rather than the details. However, since you’ve raised the topic, do you have cites for this? Many of these things aren’t independent, e.g. years of education and income.

I’m guessing that the 4% criminality number is somewhat misleading as well. Performing poorly on these tests (i.e. having a low “IQ”) is a poor predictor of whether a person becomes a criminal, however, I believe that being a criminal is highly correlated with poor performance on these tests. Or, at least, getting caught is highly correlated with poor performance on these tests!

To put it another way, a very small percentage of people with low IQs will become criminals. However, a great many criminals have lower than average IQs.

tomndebb, some of your sources are exaggerating.

Actually Chapters 17 - 20 all deal with education. That’s 120 pages.

On the contrary, they say that eduction does have an effect, as I mentioned in an earlier post. In fact, your first cite says, " Herrnstein and Murray say…that …every year of education adds about one point to the IQ score."

We had a lengthy debate about Head Start on this message board. H&M say that convergence shows that Head Start doesn’t work. They’re right. Lots of other critics of Head Start say the same.

I do partially agree with you on your criticism. It’s true that Head Start doesn’t work in terms of academic success – reading ability, grades, etc. However, I think the reason Head Start doesn’t work is because it is more-or-less a glorified babysitter service. What H&M take as evidence of the importance of genetics, I take as evidence of a poorly designed government program. At least, H&M are concerned that Head Start doesn’t work and they want to do something about it.

tomndebb, thank you for the references to the critics. On a quick review of your cites, I could find no easy way to check what Winship & Korenman and Krenz had done, so as to evaluate their criticisms. Evidently these critics are respected professionals, as are H&M. I do not know how to judge between them.

Thanks, glad to be here.

Yes, I have cites. Sorry - I meant to put them in last night, but it was late and I was befuddled. This information comes from a review article in American Psychologist (Neisser, Boodoo, Bouchard et al., 1996). No, none of these things are independent, which is largely the point. Sorry I wasn’t clearer. These are independent associations between IQ and other outcomes, without controlling for factors such as SES.

Again, this is the independent association, and I believe it comes from longitudinal research, predicting from earlier measures of IQ to later criminality. The review cites Moffitt, Gabrielli et al, 1981, as finding a correlation of -.19 between IQ and juvenile offenses, which drops to -.17 if you account for social class. Not from the Neisser et al. review, but Hogan (1999) in another review found that most studies of a link between IQ and Conduct Disorder failed to account for ADHD - when ADHD is taken into account, the relationship is reduced to non-significance (see also a review by Burke et al., to appear in November in J Am Acad Child Adolesc Psychiatry.)

Agreed.

So what does this mean? Well, again, it suggests that there is much unexplained variance in the relationship between IQ and other factors, and that many intervening variables help to explain the behavior. It suggests that even with up to date, well designed studies one cannot draw conclusions about outcomes based solely on low IQs in childhood. If one (or two) start out using suspect data and odd manners of analyzing them, the end result will be even less useful to addressing the issue. In reading this thread, I felt less generous than the APA regarding The Bell Curve: The thirteenth strike of H&M’s clock made me wonder about the other twelve.

Better, getting better.

Now, the one item you seem not quite to grasp is heritability /= genetic.

I will be back later on to elaborate, it is a somewhat complicated point, one which many naively get wrong. That will also allow me to use some of the references cited in these sites to pull up the primary literature so we can talk about the confusion of simplistically equating heritability with genetics.

BTW amigo, it is not that I am uninformed about the twin studies, rather I am informed and I know it is very easy to drawn unsupported conclusions in re the genetics. Thus, we need to go to the primary literature to understand this better.

I may add that Truthy’s second item runs smack dab into this same problem in re the genetics, there is a chain of causation that you jump over that is fundamental. Jumping over it makes the genetics determines/drives IQ argument look better (in re the types of simplistic issues the Idiot Boys wanted to get at) but is misunderstanding the genetics. (Which is not at all to suggest I have sympathy for underplaying genetics either)

Now to Brutus, stop squeeling. If you’d learn proper logic and argumentation you’d not have to be spanked so frequently.

(BTW: it is collounsbury. I don’t mind misspellings of course, but the above is so novel as to throw off searches.)

I’m not grasping this item either.

http://www.m-w.com/cgi-bin/dictionary?book=Dictionary&va=hereditary

Decemeber my dear fellow: dictionaries are not science. I am sure if you ponder that for a while, that will sink in. Or perhaps not. In any case, please spare me citations to motherfucking dictionaries when we are discussing something over your head.

Now, I have to do some work. I will get back to the technical point as soon as I can free some time to do so.

" To put it another way, a very small percentage of people with low IQs will become criminals. However, a great many criminals have lower than average IQs."

Thanks very much Hentor, for your replies to TruthSeeker. (In other words, welcome :slight_smile: ).

I do want to add though that I think the above statement is more problematic than even you allow.

First of all, which criminals are we talking about here? Does Andrew Fastow have a low IQ?

Let me guess that when Truth Seeker says “criminal” he not only refers primarily to those who get caught, but to those who are serving or have served time in jail. As we know, this population is socio-economically as well as racially overdetermined by the penal justice system’s insistence on locking up non-violent offenders, especially for small-scale crimes involving drugs.

Let me ask you another set of hypothetical questions Truth Seeker:

Do you believe that if a sample of such drug offenders had been given the same pre-natal, infant and childcare, and education as yourself that some genetically determined lack of intelligence would have landed them in prison nevertheless? Do you believe that if you had enjoyed the environmental conditions of one of these incarcerated drug offenders that your genes would have insulated you against their fate?

These are rhetorical questions because you have already made some concessions to the impact of environment. And yet despite your concessions, with their patina of reasonableness, you still want to argue that the basic “structure” of the BC argument is redeemable. The basic argument goes like this: since “some portion” of success is attributable to genes, H & M’s thesis, despite flawed methodology and outright errors, must be somewhat right. Maybe just a little, but somewhat.

Let’s examine this more closely.

What is meant by “success” anyway?

If we set the bar fairly low–say, the ability to perform the kind of job that generally allows one to live somewhat comfortably–can we not agree from the start that the only people who lack the innate intelligence to perform such a job, given the right education, are those whom the welfare state already acknowledges are entitled to social support of some kind.

Can we not also agree that if we successfully educated all Americans to the level where they could compete for such jobs, one byproduct would be that fewer people would be willing to work for the kind of non-living wage that condemns working people to a life of industrious, non-criminal poverty?

These are the kinds of questions that really face us when think about social policy.

By contrast, any argument that implies that genetic determinism can justify “some portion” of a society that incarcerates its citizens at 7X the rate of W. Europe and 5X the rate of Canada–not to mention growing socio-economic disparities between rich and poor outside of the prison population–is a distraction. A distraction that gratifies people whose preexisting impulse is to feel satisfied with the status quo.

It may well be the case that no society today has the ability to deliver on equality of opportunity without sacrifices that some would consider too great an impingement of freedom (whether freedom of the market, or of individuals). But even if that is so, we are still left with a fundamental tension between equality and freedom: both central tenets of any liberal democracy since the dawning days, despite their inherent conflict.

It is always in this context–a deep-seated tension between values that are equally central to our self-understanding–that nature/nurture debates must be considered. And the debate is always really about that unknown “portion,” since very few people are arguing for either nature or nurture alone.

Any society that wants to think of itself as just, while tolerating vast socio-economic inequality has to come up a legitimizing rationale. Hundreds of years ago, that rationale was feudal hierarchy. Now, in our liberal-democratic times, genetic determinism is the last rationalizing bulwark.

As people with much more authoritative knowledge of the book’s flaws than I have at my command have demonstrated, in this thread and others, The Bell Curve seeks to shore up that bulwark. It purports to do that via good science; yet it can’t live up to that claim. All it can do–which it does very well–to exploit that unknown “portion”–blowing smoke in other words. Some will persist in hanging their hat on that: either because they are not equipped to conduct their own peer review, and so they are duped; or because, for whatever reasons, do not want to question status quo.

My “sources” are my reading of the book. They do go on for 120 pages on education, but their recommendations (which was my specific point) are kept to a minimum. Generally they make some grand negative point about the state of education, today, and allow the reader to draw conclusions that that way must be changed. (I do not claim that this is an evil presentation, only that it allows them to divert most criticism of their intentions with “We didn’t say that.”)

And they arrive at their conclusion through the reification of intelligence in the form of IQ tests. Since they believe that IQ is a condition that is a permanent aspect of personality that might degrade slowly with age, but which is otherwise nearly immutable, then any slippage of “IQ” indicates to them that a program did not truly affect IQ.

On the other hand, if IQ tests (while not utterly divorced from intelligence) generally are good predictors of the ability to take IQ tests, then the “convergence” factor may simply be an indication that when a child leaves Head Start and enters school, that child finds that the schools are no longer providing the sort of “training” needed to keep up the testing skills. (Ever notice that schools administer IQ and similar tests in the Spring, when test scores tend to be higher than those taken in the Fall? Since we all know that those tests measure ability, not knowledge, it seems likely that the scores raised are a function of the ongoing “test preparedness” of children in school as opposed to those same children on summer vacation. In the extreme example of children in dire poverty, the Head Start program makes up some of the “test preparedness” that is more natural to children in situations that are less at risk. When they are then put into “normal” schooling, the environment more easily overwhelms the aspect of being prepared for tests.

This would argue that we should continue Head Start-like programs well into the school years (or base more education on the Head Start formulas). Of course, we may never have the money or will to do so, but that is not a legitimate indictment of Head Start (except to those who reify (and deify) IQ tests).

One scientific definition of Heritability as found at the Hypermedia Glossary Of Genetic Terms compiled by Birgid Schlindwein.

OK. However, other critics of Head Start reached similar conclusions based on ordinary academic skills – reading, in particular.

We certainly ought to use the education basis that’s most effective. There are certain specific inner city schools – some private, some public – that that have had great success. IMHO we should follow the educational methods used by them.

Thanks for the link to the Heritability definition.

But the reasons are identical: Head Start overcame environmental issues. Removal of Head Start resulted in the environmental pressures reasserting themselves on the abilities of the children ot progress.

(And I don’t want to hijack this to the Head Start debate–I just saw this as one example of M&H’s method of discussing education.)

But the reasons are identical: Head Start overcame environmental issues. Removal of Head Start resulted in the environmental pressures reasserting themselves on the abilities of the children ot progress.

(And I don’t want to hijack this to the Head Start debate–I just saw this as one example of M&H’s method of discussing education.)

I wish I had thought of this. I deem The Bell Curve to be straight Social Darwinism. I.e. Supporting the view that there exists in the US a particular segment of the population that is genetically unable to compete in the existing economic and social order and that trying to change that is futile. The inablility is preordained. Further, that group can be identified by external, physical characteristics.

In short, the book tries to shore up by purported “scientific” methods, a long ago discredited and abandoned mehodology for organizing a social system.

I agree with all but the last sentence. Trying to shoehorn this thesis into a racial framework is a mistake. TBC says that there is a group of people genetically stupid, namely, the stupid people. Our society should make sure there is a place for them. (BTW, to the degree that their stupidity is cultural, it will also tend to continue from generation to generation.)

Since technical ability continues to grow in value, while the value of physical strength diminishes, it’s harder and harder for stupid people to find a good spot. This is one reason for the continuing divergence in income level, which has been going on without cessation for at least 15 - 20 years.

Yet, the evidence suggests that the latter is not true. Williams and Ceci (1997) note findings that the gap in IQ scores between Blacks and Whites between 1973 and 1988 narrowed as much as 40%.

These must be opinions. And fine opinions they are (“oh, looks good on you though!”), but they are not helpful to the present discussion. Why do you equate physical strength with stupidity? How do you know technical ability “continues to grow in value?” And, after all, can’t stupid people simply surround themselves with sage advisors? :wink:

Hentor**, I wasn’t talking about race. I was talking about stupid people regardless of race.

Your point about the IQ gap narrowing is a good one. It shows that one cannot conclude anything about genetic differences in intelligence of blacks and whites based on IQ – a point repeatedly made in TBC.

I didn’t mean to. However, most high-paying jobs today require intelligence and technical know-how. The mythical John Henry could once make a good living because of his physical power and ability to do manual labor. No longer.

Check where the high-paying jobs are. Accountant, lawyer, actuary, systems analyst, doctor, MBA, etc.

Disicipline, reliability, commitment, hard work, personality, etc. all are still important. What I’m describing is a trend, not an absolute situation.

"(BTW, to the degree that their stupidity is cultural, it will also tend to continue from generation to generation.)

For reasons that I have already attempted to explain, december, these terms are too unspecified.

What is meant by a culture of stupidity?

We have environmental conditions that are favorable to healthy growth and learning, and ones that are not. To be sure, some cultures put a premium on learning, and others less so. But it does not follow that unfavorable environmental conditions are reducible to “stupid” cultures.

Further, what is meant by stupidity? The word itself, as you are using it, carries a connotation of cause (as in, stupidity causes lack of success) rather than effect (as in, poor environment leads to what some will insist on calling “stupidity”).

Let me repeat that with the exception of people who are born with a medically diagnosed mental deficiency (or who acquire one through some kind of accident or illness), I reject the notion of innate “stupidity.” That is, I reject the notion that any individual or any group of individuals lacks the innate intelligence to perform a reasonably well-paying jobs, given the right training and opportunities.

Any book that uses bad science to claim otherwise is, as Dave Simmmons suggests, practice a kind of retro-Social Darwinism. (And Social Darwinism very often applied to class rather than race.)

The issue of manual labor–since we still need it–and how it should be compensated is an entirely different matter. Commenting on it at length would result in the mother of all hijacks ;).

Oh. Perhaps, given that you were talking about generational transmission of intelligence, and referred to cultural differences, you might see how I misunderstood what you were trying to say. Sometimes when various constructs away from the point are added into the discussion, I have a hard time keeping them distinct.

Since you agree with it, you must agree that it invalidates your suggestion of the immutability of cultural disparities in IQ. Can you propose what might be responsible for the narrowing of this gap? Can you then tell me what remains of the conclusions from The Bell Curve that is worth talking about?

Vin Diesel, I imagine, makes a fair bit of money. President of the U.S. carries with it a higher salary than mine. These positions clearly require no particular level of IQ. And again, your opinion is one thing, empirical support would be more compelling.

None of these, etc., are associated with IQ. What trend are you trying to describe? That people in the positions, etc, that you mentioned, may tend to have higher IQs? Okay, so what? This does nothing to address the vast span of unaccounted factors between IQ and later outcomes, and the assertion that “stupid people are genetically stupid.”

Stupid is as stupid does, or writes and publishes.

Cultures aren’t immutable, but they do have quite a bit of persistency. Mandelstam’s guess as to what I meant was correct. I believe that some cultures promote intelligence more than other cultures. Yes, these cultures could change, but they tend to change gradually. E.g., many aspects of the Jewish American culture of today are similar to our ancesters’ cultures in Europe generations ago.

I’m unclear what this means. Please clarify.

Too tall an order.

That’s too cynical. Our four candidates in 2000 graduated from four of the top colleges in America: Yale, Harvard, Princeton, and the US Naval Academy.

Fair comment.

Actually, what I meant to assert was the tautology that genetically stupid people are genetically stupid.

Thank you Forrest Gump.

So it is your contention that the whole 900 pages is devoted to an exposition of the puerile truisms that human abilities are distributed about a mean value with the the really low end being unable to cope, and that poverty begets poverty?