# The "Big Impact" Plan for Iraqi WMDs **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 1, 2003, 11:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325 "2003-08-01T11:35:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 14
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2003, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/261 "2003-09-24T03:25:29Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by SimonX \* > \*\*Did the ‘Big Impact’ impact yet? Did I miss it? \*\* You aren’t important enough to get it. The Kay report is reserved exclusively for the real movers and shakers in Washington’s corridors of power: [Officials to Get Update on Iraq WMD Hunt](http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=536&ncid=536&e=3&u=/ap/20030923/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/iraq_weapons_hunt) What power do you have ? One vote ? Well screw you, and the horse you rode in on. You have **no** need to know. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Svinlesha](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/22d042/32.png) [@Mr.Svinlesha](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Svinlesha)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2003, 12:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/262 "2003-10-06T12:27:59Z")
Well, September has come and gone, and the Kay’s report has finally arrived, shrunken from a “big impact” to something more akin to a [wet fart](http://www.cia.gov/cia/public_affairs/speeches/2003/david_kay_10022003.html). It is instructive to go back through the first couple of pages of this thread and reread the posts of the pro-war group here at the SDMB: > [@](#): > > **december** : > > - The Democrats have been playing politics, fussing about no WMDs being found. Nearer to the election, the WMDs will be found, and the Dems will look irresponsible…. At least we know which party is dumber.\* > [@](#): > > **Scylla** : > > - If they find oodles of good wmds, and then release it all in one big report, the Democrats are going to look pretty shocked and awed in the election. > > If they just find some crappy wishy-washy stuff (Hey, look a trailer!) **a whole bunch of it at once is harder to debunk** , than if they are offered one at a time over many months.\* > [@](#): > > **Sam Stone** : > > - But frankly, I think the weapons are there. You guys keep claiming that absence of evidence is evidence of absence, but that’s just not true…. > > We don’t know where the WMD are. We don’t know what programs Saddam had, and what he was planning to do with them. That evidence is still being gathered. In the end, it may turn out that you were right. But you’re jumping the gun if you try to claim that it’s a closed issue. It’s not, and **the Administration is making increasingly confident statements that they will be proven right in every major detail** …. > > The administration is acting awfully cocky about this right now, and David Kay has a big smile on his face. Y’all might want to be just a bit careful about your claims…. > > David Kay now says he has strong, compelling evidence of a very sophisticated series of WMD programs, **and evidence of the existence of the weapons themselves**. If that’s the case, than all the carping you guys have been doing about how obviously duped we all were is going to come back and bite you in the ass. > > **If not, then I will admit that I was duped**.\* Ah, with regard to that last…’tis a consummation devoutly to be wished, **Sam** my boy. But I guess I’ll see it the day I go ice-skating in hell. Anyway, the September report was supposedly going to be the last word. The findings were to remain classified “_until U.S. intelligence concludes they amount to an irrefutable case that can be presented to the public_,” according this [source](http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2003-07-31-cia-weapons_x.htm). “_Few of the sites being investigated were known to U.S. intelligence before the war, said Kay, who’s a former chief weapons inspector for the United Nations_.” (By contrast, in the ISG report, Kay defends his lack of progress by complaining that the group must inventory over 130 well-known ASP sites.) And so now we we’ve waited six months for the presentation of this “irrefutable case.” Although Kay describes the progress made thus far as “remarkable,” the ISG has nevertheless failed to recover a single banned weapon system in Iraq. There are no “WMDs,” apparently. At worse, there may have been plans to implement research programs at some point in the distant future, after the sanctions had been lifted. Some elements of the Kay report are fairly exquisite examples of US doublethink. Consider, for example, the following: > [@](#): > > - I cannot emphasize too strongly that the Interim Progress Report, which has been made available to you, is a snapshot, in the context of an on-going investigation, of where we are after our first three months of work. The report does not represent a final reckoning of Iraq’s WMD programs, nor are we at the point where we are prepared to close the file on any of these programs.\* ? I thought they said they weren’t going to release a report until they had produced an “irrefutable case.” > [@](#): > > _We need to recall that in the 1991-2003 period the intelligence community and the UN/IAEA inspectors had to draw conclusions as to the status of Iraq’s WMD program **in the face of incomplete, and often false, data** supplied by Iraq or data collected either by UN/IAEA inspectors operating within the severe constraints that Iraqi security and deception actions imposed or by national intelligence collection systems with their own inherent limitations. The result was that our understanding of the status of Iraq’s WMD program **was always bounded by large uncertainties and had to be heavily caveated**._ I beg your fucking pardon? “Bounded by large uncertainties,” and “heavily caveated”? Everyone in the entire administration insisted, prior to the war, that they were **100% certain** that Iraq possessed “WMDs.” In his speech on the eve of the invasion, for example, Bush stated unequivocally that “_intelligence gathered by this and other governments **leaves no doubt** that the Iraq regime continues to possess and conceal some of the most lethal weapons ever devised_.” Perhaps I’m just biased, but I fail to find the caveat in that statement. > [@](#): > > _Any actual WMD weapons or material is likely to be small in relation to the total conventional armaments footprint and difficult to near impossible to identify with normal search procedures. It is important to keep in mind that even the bulkiest materials we are searching for, in the quantities we would expect to find, can be concealed in spaces not much larger than a two car garage…_ Hmmm… 25000 liters of anthrax bacteria, and 38000 liters of botulinum toxin. How many liters are there to the average garage, do you think? > [@](#): > > - Multiple sources with varied access and reliability have told ISG that Iraq did not have a large, ongoing, centrally controlled CW program after 1991. Information found to date suggests that Iraq’s large-scale capability to develop, produce, and fill new CW munitions was reduced - if not entirely destroyed - during Operations Desert Storm and Desert Fox, 13 years of UN sanctions and UN inspections.\* Whoa. Not only did they apparently not have chemical weapons; they didn’t even have a CW _program_, according to Kay. He’s certainly produced an airtight case thus far. Not. > [@](#): > > - Despite evidence of Saddam’s continued ambition to acquire nuclear weapons, to date we have not uncovered evidence that Iraq undertook significant post-1998 steps to actually build nuclear weapons or produce fissile material….The ISG nuclear team has found indications that there was interest, beginning in 2002, in reconstituting a centrifuge enrichment program. Most of this activity centered on activities of Dr. Sa’id that caused some of his former colleagues in the pre-1991 nuclear program to suspect that Dr. Sa’id, at least, was considering a restart of the centrifuge program. **We do not yet fully understand Iraqi intentions, and the evidence does not tie any activity directly to centrifuge research or development**.\* So those tubes, again – weren’t they supposed to be evidence of a reconstituted Iraqi nuclear program? According to Kay, apparently not. Still unconvinced, **Sam**? Then consider this intersting passage from the [Washington Post](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A47562-2003Oct5.html): > [@](#): > > \*\* He [Kay] also confirmed that some of the high-quality aluminum tubes that CIA and Pentagon analysts said most likely were to be used for centrifuges were used to make rockets, as State and Energy Department analysts said. He cautioned, however, that he could not say what the largest tube shipment was for because it was intercepted by the United States before the war began.\*\* I must admit, I’m puzzled by the resounding silence Kay’s report has been met with, both in the media and here at the SDMB. ---
**Author:** ![Brutus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/91b2a8/32.png) [@Brutus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Brutus)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2003, 12:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/263 "2003-10-06T12:44:28Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Mr. Svinlesha \* > **Hmmm… 25000 liters of anthrax bacteria, and 38000 liters of botulinum toxin. How many liters are there to the average garage, do you think?..** A duece and a half, in tanker configuration, has a 1200 gallon tank (~4500 liters). What’s that, 14 trucks? ---
**Author:** ![scm1001](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c4cdca/32.png) [@scm1001](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scm1001)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2003, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/264 "2003-10-06T14:06:23Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Mr. Svinlesha \* > \*\* I must admit, I’m puzzled by the resounding silence Kay’s report has been met with, both in the media and here at the SDMB. \*\* The ones against the war are getting tired of saying we told you so. The ones for the war I hope have curled up and died of embarrasment. ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2003, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/265 "2003-10-06T16:38:39Z")
I’m trying to patiently wait for the _final_ report due out in 6-9 months. Much closer to the timeline that I originally predicted. ---
**Author:** ![Weird\_With\_Words](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/weird_with_words/32/385_2.png) [@Weird\_With\_Words](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Weird_With_Words)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2003, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/266 "2003-10-06T19:08:15Z")
I too can hardly wait for that glorious day, 6-9 months from now, when they conclusively, _finally_, report that they will **definitely** need more time. Unless, of course, we invade Syria/Iran/Venezuela/France. In that case they’ll probably lay all the cards on the table, admit they were wrong, and ask us all to get past it so we can deal with the soon-to-be current crisis. ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2003, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/267 "2003-10-06T19:18:32Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Mr. Svinlesha \* > I must admit, I’m puzzled by the resounding silence Kay’s report has been met with, both in the media and here at the SDMB. It’s all part of the Evil Liberal Media Conspiracy to discredit President Bush! Oh, wait… ---
**Author:** ![mack](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b19c9b/32.png) [@mack](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mack)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2003, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/268 "2003-10-06T20:59:32Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Weird With Words \* > **I too can hardly wait for that glorious day, 6-9 months from now, when they conclusively, _finally_, report that they will definitely need more time.** Or, (with apologies to WWW) in the time-is-money way of things: > [@](#): > > **I too can hardly wait for that glorious day, 6-9 hundred million dollars from now, when they conclusively, _finally_, report that they will definitely need more dollars.** ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2003, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/269 "2003-10-06T22:55:38Z")
Well, gee whiz. I was expecting, as promised, a Steel Cage Death Match between **Mr. S** and **Scylla**. To be conducted at the very highest levels of rhetorical propriety, in complete absence of rhetoric. This would be miracle enough for the price of admission. Alas, it appears that it is not to be. **Mr. S** even poured political chum into the water by resurrecting this thread from the crypts. But the Tighty Righties are not to be tempted, and cannot be lured. More’s the pity. I note with alarm **SCM101’s** suggestion that they have suffered death by embarassment. I would have assumed that anyone who had survived junior high would be immune to such a fate. Is there any way we can send someone to check on them, make sure they’re quite all right? ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2003, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/270 "2003-10-06T23:01:41Z")
Easy there big fella. ---
**Author:** ![Weird\_With\_Words](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/weird_with_words/32/385_2.png) [@Weird\_With\_Words](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Weird_With_Words)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2003, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/271 "2003-10-06T23:08:50Z")
> [@](#): > > I too can hardly wait for that glorious day, 6-9 hundred million dollars from now, when they conclusively, finally, report that they will definitely need more dollars. Hmmm, kinda over-optimistic doncha think? Maybe if you traded the “M” for a “B”… > [@](#): > > make sure they’re quite all right? Oh yes, they’re all right, each and every one of them. That’s why they’re so wrong. Sorry, sorry, no need to hurl anything, except of course for your own chunks… I’ll leave now. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2003, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/272 "2003-10-06T23:15:39Z")
In fairness, we have had several acknowledgments of reality, some quite angry, from the realists among the GOP partisans here. I have high respect for anyone who can admit they were fooled - that’s one of the hardest admissions for anyone to make, and some have made it. There are even a few dead-enders here still believing they somehow haven’t been lied to, and that the war was right anyway etc. But you’re generally right; unfortunately the bulk of the loudest chickenhawks haven’t had the integrity to take either stand, despite any amount of coaxing. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2003, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/273 "2003-10-06T23:19:33Z")
I rather like _Ironic Times_ cut on it [http://www.ironictimes.com/](http://www.ironictimes.com/) **Bush: WMD Report Justifies Case for War** If we hadn’t attacked we never would have known there was no reason to do so. ---
**Author:** ![Scylla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@Scylla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scylla)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2003, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/274 "2003-10-06T23:35:30Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by elucidator \* > \*\*Well, gee whiz. I was expecting, as promised, a Steel Cage Death Match between **Mr. S** and **Scylla**. To be conducted at the very highest levels of rhetorical propriety, in complete absence of rhetoric. This would be miracle enough for the price of admission. > > Alas, it appears that it is not to be. **Mr. S** even poured political chum into the water by resurrecting this thread from the crypts. But the Tighty Righties are not to be tempted, and cannot be lured. More’s the pity. \*\* I dunno. I kind of lost the heart for it when I learned Roy was in critical condition after getting mauled. Maybe you guys can go on like nothing happened… ---
**Author:** ![David\_Simmons](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9de053/32.png) [@David\_Simmons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/David_Simmons)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2003, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/275 "2003-10-06T23:38:42Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Weird With Words \* > **I too can hardly wait for that glorious day, 6-9 months from now, when they conclusively, _finally_, report that they will definitely need more time.** And, by the way, another $600 million. It is my firm conviction that the knee-jerk defenders will never admit that the Smirk in Chief is a \*\*\*\*\*\*\* liar and that Colin Powell has proved to be just another oportunist who goes along because he likes his cushy job. It would be just too painful. ---
**Author:** ![Scylla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@Scylla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scylla)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2003, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/276 "2003-10-06T23:40:39Z")
And why is Lieberman being treated like shit when he’s the only candidate worth a crap " Sen. Joe Lieberman, D-Conn., said Kay’s report shows Saddam’s clear intent to develop chemical and biological weapons and the missiles to deliver them. He said, however, that the administration didn’t tell the public the whole truth. “There is some evidence that the Bush administration exaggerated unnecessarily,” he told “Fox News Sunday.” Lieberman, a presidential candidate, said the exaggeration “did discredit what was otherwise a very just cause of fighting tyranny and terrorism.” [http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,99149,00.html](http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,99149,00.html) ---
**Author:** ![David\_Simmons](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9de053/32.png) [@David\_Simmons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/David_Simmons)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2003, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/277 "2003-10-06T23:51:50Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Scylla \* > \*\*And why is Lieberman being treated like shit when he’s the only candidate worth a crap > > " Sen. Joe Lieberman, D-Conn., said Kay’s report shows Saddam’s clear intent to develop chemical and biological weapons and the missiles to deliver them. He said, however, that the administration didn’t tell the public the whole truth. > > “There is some evidence that the Bush administration exaggerated unnecessarily,” he told “Fox News Sunday.” Lieberman, a presidential candidate, said the exaggeration “did discredit what was otherwise a very just cause of fighting tyranny and terrorism.” > > [http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,99149,00.html](http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,99149,00.html) \*\* Because he is acting like shit. He is still cravenly trying to justify swallowing the administration line and voting for giving GW _carte blanche_ in the matter of war in Iraq. The party should bury him deep and forget him quick as a Presidential candidate. ---
**Author:** ![Scylla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@Scylla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scylla)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2003, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/278 "2003-10-06T23:56:36Z")
Really? To me he is the one who does not appear totally frothing at the mouth insane with hate, and he actually seems to be campaigning on issues. But I guess in this election being a good Democrat is about how much you can hate the President. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2003, 11:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/279 "2003-10-06T23:57:15Z")
Lieber_who_? ---
**Author:** ![David\_Simmons](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9de053/32.png) [@David\_Simmons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/David_Simmons)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2003, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/280 "2003-10-07T00:07:12Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Scylla \* > \*\*Really? To me he is the one who does not appear totally frothing at the mouth insane with hate, and he actually seems to be campaigning on issues. > > But I guess in this election being a good Democrat is about how much you can hate the President. \*\* Well, I don’t think that you are the premier source of advice to Democrats as to their best candidate. And, in my opinion, any President who has lied about evidence and thereby conned the legislature and public into an unjustified war which results in pissing off most of the rest of the world has cause great damage to the US and has earned a certain amount of disrespect and even, yes, hatred. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325.md?page=13) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325.md?page=15)