# The "Big Impact" Plan for Iraqi WMDs **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 1, 2003, 11:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325 "2003-08-01T11:35:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Spavined\_Gelding](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/958977/32.png) [@Spavined\_Gelding](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spavined_Gelding)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2003, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/21 "2003-08-01T20:23:20Z")
Open your mouth And close you eyes And you shall receive A great surprise. Despite all the confident language, it looks to me as if the Administration has gotten tired, and not a little gun shy, of floating supposed proof of implications of possible nuclear-biological-chemical weapons, or Iraqi hopes to have them some day, or Iraqi plans to have them one day, or Iraqi attempts to have them some day, or having had them once upon at time, and then having the whole thing shot full of holes by various skeptics. Now the Administration has decided to just bunker up in hopes that something definitive and persuasive turns up in the future, maybe. If it doesn’t then the Administration will concentrate on telling us what a horrible, no good man Saddam was and how the chances of an orderly Middle East have been enhanced by taking Saddam out and how access to a secure oil supply has been assured. If something does turn up we will never hear the end of it. Basicly, the Administration has decided to quit publicly digging through the horse manure insisting that there has got to be a pony in there someplace. They are not going to talk about it until somebody trots out a pony. Right now, conjecture and speculation and wishful thinking aside, we got nothing. ---
**Author:** ![Mtgman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b5a626/32.png) [@Mtgman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mtgman)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2003, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/22 "2003-08-01T20:25:51Z")
[channeling a wacky conspiracy theorist]In six months we’ll be at war with Syria, or Iran, or North Korea, or somebody else and no one will care when the report comes out with lots of verbiage and very little proof. You heard it here first![/wacky conspiracy theorist] Enjoy, Steven ---
**Author:** ![rsa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/839c29/32.png) [@rsa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rsa)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2003, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/23 "2003-08-02T13:58:23Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by december \* > Nearer to the election, the WMDs will be found, and the Dems will look irresponsible. Not according to this Iraqi… [Aide: Saddam Did Get Rid of Iraq WMD](http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=540&e=6&u=/ap/saddam_s_bluff) > [@](#): > > BAGHDAD, Iraq - A close aide to Saddam Hussein says the Iraqi dictator did in fact get rid of his weapons of mass destruction but deliberately kept the world guessing about it in an effort to divide the international community and stave off a U.S. invasion. > > \ > > Both Pentagon officials and weapons experts are considering this guessing-game theory as the search for chemical, biological and nuclear weapons continues. If true, it would indicate there was no imminent unconventional weapons threat from Iraq, an argument President Bush used to go to war. > > Saddam’s alleged weapons bluff was detailed by an Iraqi official who assisted Saddam for many years. The official was not part of the national leadership but his job provided him daily contact with the dictator and insight into the regime’s decision-making process during the past decade and in its critical final days. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2003, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/24 "2003-08-02T14:03:39Z")
I said that! I said that! In these very boards, I said I thought Saddam was bluffing! The **Usual Suspects** heaped scorn and derision upon me, 'owls of derisive laughter, Bruce, when I said that! Told you so! Told you so! Did I mention that I told you so? Well, I did. I told you so. ---
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2003, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/25 "2003-08-02T15:09:14Z")
**Elucidator** , I think a number of your readers would greatly appreciate it if you take a moment to explain what you mean by these ‘usual suspects’ you are forever ranting about. And just what is it you suspect them of? Cheers. Re: the OP, my read is that there is no compelling evidence of operational Iraqi WMD and never has been, and that the six-month time frame will allow the administration to a) try to put together a plausible legend explaining away this fact; b) bury the WMD excuse for the invasion under all the other justifications advanced along with it (“war on terror”, “liberation of Iraqis/Kurds/Marsh Arabs”, etc.) IOW, what **Spavined Gelding** said. ---
**Author:** ![TVAA](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c57346/32.png) [@TVAA](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TVAA)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2003, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/26 "2003-08-02T16:41:04Z")
As time passes, the Masses will begin to forget the WMD claims. Without repetition of the information in the media, most people will simply assume the problems went away. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2003, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/27 "2003-08-02T17:12:12Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by elucidator \* > \*\*I said that! I said that! In these very boards, I said I thought Saddam was bluffing! The **Usual Suspects** heaped scorn and derision upon me, 'owls of derisive laughter, Bruce, when I said that! > > Told you so! Told you so! Did I mention that I told you so? > > Well, I did. I told you so. \*\* Actually, I remember very clearly in a thread that ran before the war started that you stated you believed there **were** WMDs in Iraq, but that was not sufficient reason for war. BTW, that is a position with which I can completely agree with. But let’s keep the record straight, OK? The other thing to keep in mind, is that the public’s view of this war is not going to be determined by WMDs. It’s going to be determined by the situation in Iraq come election time in the US. If things are improving over there and there is an end in sight for our military presense, then I think most people will give Bush a pass on the WMD issue. If things look bad and/or are deteriorating, then the whole Iraq war issue will be a negative for him. I’m not talking about the folks who didn’t like Bush or the war. For them, it won’t matter whether or not WMDs are found anyway. I’m talking about the people in the middle who look at it and say: “Saddam was a really bad guy and the world is better off without him. If things look better in Iraq than when he was running things, the war was OK by me”. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2003, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/28 "2003-08-02T17:25:50Z")
You’re memory is ok as far as it goes, **John-Boy** , but later some folks were claiming “Hey, if he doesn’t have them, then he would tell us, wouldn’t he, because there would be no reason not to.” You will recall, this was offered as irrefutable proof that he simply _must_ have had them, otherwise he wouldn’t be playing games with the inspectors. Then I said “He could be bluffing, keep Iran off his back”. That’s my story, and I’m sticking to it. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2003, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/29 "2003-08-02T17:31:31Z")
Whats that you say? Cite? [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?threadid=182866&highlight=bluff](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?threadid=182866&highlight=bluff) “So whats the smartest course for an evil old bugger. Get rid of the WMD’s, but resist inspection. You can’t be truly busted, you don’t have anything to worry about. Bonus! Since no one believes you, no one is sure you don’t have warehouses full of Bad Mojo! As long as you resist inspections, knowing you can pass inspection, you keep the bluff alive at no real cost.” Any questions? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2003, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/30 "2003-08-02T17:42:49Z")
I didn’t mean to imply that you hadn’t posted the “bluff” scenario, but that you did take the position, before the war the started, that Saddam most likely did have WMDs. No? If you really don’t think so, I’ll do some searching for the quote. But I don’t remember the exact thread, just that it was back at the end of last year, or early this year. ---
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2003, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/31 "2003-08-02T18:13:00Z")
> [@](#): > > Any questions? Yes. Once, again, for my, you know, _elucidation_, who or what are the usual suspects? Hey, if the OP doesn’t want to talk to me, maybe someone else could ask (or explain). ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2003, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/32 "2003-08-02T18:25:14Z")
Theres some debate over that, actually, which I am relucatant to start up again cause its kinda silly. In my own case, I mean the cadre of Tighty Righties who can be relied upon to support the Admin’s case. By now, I figured most folks knew that. ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2003, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/33 "2003-08-02T18:25:25Z")
Originally, I just assumed that, of course, Hussein had banned weapons. As time goes by, my doubt grows. At this point, I feel that Hussein certainly had banned weapons programs. I mean, heck, what’s it take to be a “program”? A handful of three-ring binders and several scientsts on payroll? Surely, the Bush Admin can find at least this. I’ll still be at least a little surprised if we don’t find banned weapons. Less so now than before. Six-months from now, maybe I won’t be surprised at all. But, surely, we’ll have at least evidence of some programs right? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2003, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/34 "2003-08-02T18:28:13Z")
A damp cocktail napkin with the word “nuke” written on it. The Bushiviks have lowered the bar as far as possible without digging a trench. ---
**Author:** ![David\_Simmons](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9de053/32.png) [@David\_Simmons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/David_Simmons)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2003, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/35 "2003-08-02T18:34:29Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Scylla \* > \*\*I called it too. This is the smart way to do it. > > … > > It is also probably the right way to do it. Period. You gather evidence, examine, and present your case. It’s stupid to wing it as you go along. > > This is the way I would do it. I would expect an intelligent Democratic President to do it this way. This is, in fact, the way I expect all such endeavors to go. You do your investigation, **then** you present your findings. \*\* And by this reasoning shouldn’t you have a thorough investigation and solid evidence _then_ go to war. ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2003, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/36 "2003-08-02T19:45:31Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by David Simmons \* > \*\*And by this reasoning shouldn’t you have a thorough investigation and solid evidence _then_ go to war. \*\* Haven’t you heard? This is treasonous talk. Saddamite. ---
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2003, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/37 "2003-08-02T20:06:19Z")
> [@](#): > > In my own case, I mean the cadre of Tighty Righties who can be relied upon to support the Admin’s case. By now, I figured most folks knew that. Got it. Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2003, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/38 "2003-08-02T21:15:04Z")
**elucidator said:** > [@](#): > > I said that! I said that! In these very boards, I said I thought Saddam was bluffing! The Usual Suspects heaped scorn and derision upon me, 'owls of derisive laughter, Bruce, when I said that! Assuming that’s the case, then doesn’t that still justify the war? If you’re a jerkwad dictator, and you intentionally mislead the U.S. into thinking you have weapons of mass destruction, and they tell you to fess up or they’re coming over with a big stick, and you STILL intentionally make them believe that you have said weapons, then tough noogies. The U.S. doesn’t have a crystal ball. It has intelligence reports. If those reports say there are threatening weapons, it acts on them. If that intelligence was ‘planted’ by Saddam, then I’d just say he stupidly hung himself. But frankly, I think the weapons are there. You guys keep claiming that absence of evidence is evidence of absence, but that’s just not true. Just yesterday, a bunch of fighter jets were found, buried under the sand. If Saddam could hide a squadron of fighter jets, he could hide a few containers of chemical or biological weapons. In fact, a squadron of fully armed aircraft was found in _Germany_ last week, buried in vaults underneath an airport. They went undetected for almost sixty years. When governments go out of their way to hide things, they can do a damned good job of it. And sometimes in these threads it’s worthwhile to keep up with the latest news: [U.S. Suspects New Weapons Sites](http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2003-07-31-cia-weapons_x.htm) > [@](#): > > WASHINGTON — Iraqi scientists and documents from Saddam Hussein’s regime are leading investigators to new sites suspected of being part of Iraq’s alleged program to produce banned weapons, the CIA’s special adviser on the weapons search said Thursday. > Adviser David Kay said no chemical or biological weapons have been found in six weeks of intensive searching, and details of the new findings will remain classified until U.S. intelligence concludes they amount to an irrefutable case that can be presented to the public. > > Even so, he said the probe has discovered evidence of Iraqi efforts to hide its weapons programs from international inspectors — evidence being provided by the Iraqi officials who were in charge of concealing those programs. > … > “The active deception program is truly amazing once you get inside it,” Kay said. “We have people who participated in deceiving U.N. inspectors now telling us how they did it.” As to why this might take some time - most of the information is documentary evidence, and it’s _huge_. From [Debka:](http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=533) > [@](#): > > The Kay team spent the first month of its mission sorting into three batches what he described as “ **an estimated seven and-a-half miles of documents** ”, many of them collected by US military from Iraqi official buildings, but many others handed over by Iraqi civilians. > > The data yielded is substantial: > > **Batch One:** Records of Saddam’s chemical, biological and nuclear programming with notes on budgets, manpower and procurement requirements. Detailed are the Saddam regime’s plans, productions processes and timetables for WMD development as well as special programs for concealing it all from UN inspectors for twelve years. Saddam’s officials hid these thousands of documents from the United Nations Blix-ElBarardei inspection team and left them out of the voluminous “full accounting” Baghdad submitted to the UN Security Council before the war. > > **Batch Two:** This group, which also consists of many thousands of pieces of paper, tracks the implementation of the WMD programs with time schedules and assessments of progress made in each category and inventories the stocks building up in the illegal arsenal. Scientists or engineers would often win bonuses for notable progress in their work. > > **Batch Three:** \*\*This pile offers leads to locations where forbidden weapons may have been concealed when the records were drawn up and ways to access them, including the evidence of the transfer to Syria by Saddam’s agents of large parts of the forbidden program. \*\* Seven and a half miles of documents, all needing translation. That’s a LOT of work. That batch three looks interesting - Kay’s team says that they have hard evidence of WMD being transported to Syria, and of other stuff being hidden. And they may have the info needed to find it. If I were the Democrats, I’d be really careful about grabbing onto that long rope dangling from the White House. ---
**Author:** ![Avenger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9de0a6/32.png) [@Avenger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Avenger)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2003, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/39 "2003-08-02T22:23:32Z")
> [@](#): > > Assuming that’s the case, then doesn’t that still justify the war? If you’re a jerkwad dictator, and you intentionally mislead the U.S. into thinking you have weapons of mass destruction, and they tell you to fess up or they’re coming over with a big stick, and you STILL intentionally make them believe that you have said weapons, then tough noogies. Note for any jerkwad dictators reading: The way that you “intentionally mislead the US into thinking you have waepons of mass destruction” is that you clearly announce that you do not have these weapons. You then invite internationally recognised inspectors into your country in order for them to verify that you do not have these weapons. When they find weapons that they do not believe comply with your International obligations, you begin to destroy them… ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2003, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325/40 "2003-08-02T22:52:16Z")
That thing dangling from the White House? You sure thats a rope? C’mon, **Sam** , get real here, ok? Are you going to keep a straight face when you claim that documents are bombs? Seven miles, ten miles, a hundred miles of documents dont add up to “massive stockpiles” of nuclear anthrax. They are not so much as one warhead of VX nerve gas being deployed, as Colin Powell solemnly intoned. They are not even a hypothetical nuclear weapon, whether one year, five years or a hundred years in the future. So where is the urgent need, the absolutely certain peril, that common decency demands be the _only_ justifiable basis for preemptive war? To this day, $250,000 still sits on a table. All someone has to do is walk in and say “The massive stockpile is at the corner of Saddam Blvd. and Qusay Street.” And still it sits. Why is that, **Sam**? Iraqi’s don’t like money? Or can you think the unthinkable, that there is nothing to sell. That we’ve been had. That we are sheep being led by jackals. I’m even willing to believe that the Bushiviks are sincerely wrong, that they truly believe what they say. But to believe that I must believe that they formulated thier conclusion first, and walked the cat back to the premises. Yes, they truly believed that Iraq was a dire threat. But in order to believe that they had to selectively sort out the evidence. firmly ignoring anything which contradicted thier dearly held assumptions. People died for those assumptions. Needlessly. If that isn’t misfeasance, malfeasance and sheer dumbfuckery, what is? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-big-impact-plan-for-iraqi-wmds/192325.md?page=3)