# The Black Box: US Military & Law Enforcement Support for a Coup **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [December 18, 2021, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-black-box-us-military-law-enforcement-support-for-a-coup/956253 "2021-12-18T01:53:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2021, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-black-box-us-military-law-enforcement-support-for-a-coup/956253/21 "2021-12-20T03:13:40Z")
I remember way back in 2019 or early 2020 (I think), when there was first starting to be discussion on thèse Boards of « what if » scenarios, and many posters would respond by citing the Constituion as an immutable system. @AK84 had the very interesting comment, coming from a country that has gone through political upheavals: « Americans seem to think their Constitution has the same status as the laws of physics. » [my memory version] I think positions may have changed since then. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2021, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-black-box-us-military-law-enforcement-support-for-a-coup/956253/22 "2021-12-20T03:27:08Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > I think positions may have changed since then. I don’t think it has; there still seems to be a sense of “Well that can’t happen, it’s unconstitutional.” The law doesn’t really matter. What matters is if people WANT the law to matter. And when a pretty good chuck of the population doesn’t care about the law, the country is in trouble. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2021, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-black-box-us-military-law-enforcement-support-for-a-coup/956253/23 "2021-12-20T04:13:44Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > I hope they aren’t accepting pseudo-religious objections. From the AP yesterday: > **[Troops find religious exemption for vaccines unattainable](https://apnews.com/article/religious-exemptions-vaccines-military-chaplains-ba9cf7c3ec122d5cb614ccf622ae6fd9)** > > More than 12,000 military service members refusing the COVID-19 vaccine are seeking religious exemptions, and so far they're having zero success. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2021, 4:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-black-box-us-military-law-enforcement-support-for-a-coup/956253/24 "2021-12-20T04:26:45Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > The generals and admirals who run the military are career men who’ve spent decades (41 years in Gen. Milley’s case) in service, serving under both Republican and Democratic administrations. So? Franco had served the Spanish state loyally and well for decades. George Washington was a patriotic Englishman, who had served his King well. Napoleon was the savior of the Republic. Nothing more dangerous than a lifelong military man, convinced of the righteousness of his cause. The US military isn’t any more immune from political ambitions than other armed forces in other times and places. No, one of the main reasons it has’t happened in the US is that the system allows for a politically ambitious officer to gain political power fairly easily. So many of your generals have gone on to gain the Presidency or high office, that the incentive for them is to work within the system. The trick is ensure that said incentive never breaks down. ---
**Author:** ![DavidNRockies](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidnrockies/32/6279_2.png) [@DavidNRockies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DavidNRockies)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2021, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-black-box-us-military-law-enforcement-support-for-a-coup/956253/25 "2021-12-20T13:39:14Z")
A University of California - San Diego Political Science professor (who, it should be noted, has a book coming out) had some very interesting things to say about the state of our Democracy: > **[UCSD Professor on CNN: U.S. Close to Being at High Risk of a 'Siege of Terror'](https://timesofsandiego.com/politics/2021/12/19/ucsd-professor-on-cnn-u-s-close-to-being-at-high-risk-of-a-siege-of-terror/)** > > "We all wish that the United States was a strong democracy, but the reality is just not so," the Del Mar resident said Sunday. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2021, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-black-box-us-military-law-enforcement-support-for-a-coup/956253/26 "2021-12-21T01:01:02Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > The US military isn’t any more immune from political ambitions than other armed forces in other times and places. No, one of the main reasons it has’t happened in the US is that the system allows for a politically ambitious officer to gain political power fairly easily. So many of your generals have gone on to gain the Presidency or high office, that the incentive for them is to work within the system. > The trick is ensure that said incentive never breaks down. Good points. And of course if Trump (or someone Trumpish) succeeded in getting military and law-enforcement support for a '_we really won the 2024 election no matter what the electoral votes and courts say’_ effort, the result could well be a declaration that Trump or Hawley or De Santos or whoever is President-for-Life. And that would NOT be a good situation for ambitious right-wing military guys. In that scenario we’d likely enter an era of coups and counter-coups and assassinations. By the way, the “law enforcement” mentioned in the thread title is at least as relevant to the discussion as is the military (I just had the recent op-ed, centered on the military, to hand when writing). A strong possibility: the 2024 popular vote AND electoral vote count are close. GOP state legislatures, using their new laws permitting them to declare any result they dislike “fraudulent,” tell slates of electors for the Democratic candidate that they are not legitimate—and local law enforcement rounds them up and does…whatever with them. (“Jails them temporarily” if they’re lucky.) That’s not even counting what state and local L.E. entities could do during the elections themselves, from making it clear that if the ‘wrong’ people try to vote they will be arrested, to simply standing outside polling places with “Trump” (or whoever) regalia plus assault weapons-at-the-ready. Who would stop this from happening? ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2021, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-black-box-us-military-law-enforcement-support-for-a-coup/956253/27 "2021-12-21T01:09:31Z")
COVID could help prevent it. There are going to be _a lot_ more missing Republican voters in 2024 than Democrats or Independents. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2021, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-black-box-us-military-law-enforcement-support-for-a-coup/956253/28 "2021-12-21T01:20:33Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > COVID could help prevent it. There are going to be _a lot_ more missing Republican voters in 2024 than Democrats or Independents. - Undoubtedly true. There is very likely to be a smaller number of registered Republicans voting in 2024 than in 2020. But will the drop be enough to overcome the ‘_discourage Democratic-leaning voters_’ and ‘_ignore actual votes and just declare whichever winner we prefer_’ tactics already put in place in many red states? And if it’s close, will that encourage people with weaponry (whether military or law-enforcement) to decide that putting their thumbs on the scale could work out well for them? ---
**Author:** ![OldOlds](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a3d4f5/32.png) [@OldOlds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldOlds)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2021, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-black-box-us-military-law-enforcement-support-for-a-coup/956253/29 "2021-12-27T16:23:17Z")
I’ve never been in the military, so I would defer to the thoughts of those who have. However, after many years working with ex-officers, mostly Colonels, my experience is that these are people who take their office and oath seriously, and are not likely to support any illegal activities. These are people who value American democracy and in my experience care about it. (I’m in an industry that seems to have an inordinate portion of ex military) Edited to add that I am sure there are some officers who would go down this route, but I doubt anywhere near enough. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2021, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-black-box-us-military-law-enforcement-support-for-a-coup/956253/30 "2021-12-27T16:39:35Z")
Yes, but no coup can succeed in a place like America without a good veneer of legitimacy. The reason 2020 failed for the GOP was because it was perceived as illegitimate, as sore losers who couldn’t swallow the truth. In 2024, a much more skilled GOP could or would pull it off in a way that would seem much more legit, in fact, maybe even have some constitutional backing to it. The trick would be to seize power in a way that made it seem like _Democrats_ were the sore loser insurgents who couldn’t accept their loss. It’s all about perception, and it’s all about the first 24 hours following Election Night. Those 24 hours would be utterly crucial in determining the perception of who was the “entrenched” and who was the “challenger.” ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2021, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-black-box-us-military-law-enforcement-support-for-a-coup/956253/31 "2021-12-27T16:51:31Z")
The fatality rate of COVID is still far less than the Spanish Influenza. The bitter irony of COVID is that it’s _just_ deadly enough that it couldn’t be ignored as just another respiratory infection, while not so devastatingly deadly as to scare doubters into supporting pandemic measures. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2021, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-black-box-us-military-law-enforcement-support-for-a-coup/956253/32 "2021-12-28T00:45:02Z")
> [@OldOlds](#): > > I’ve never been in the military, so I would defer to the thoughts of those who have. However, after many years working with ex-officers, mostly Colonels, my experience is that these are people who take their office and oath seriously, and are not likely to support any illegal activities. These are people who value American democracy and in my experience care about it. > > (I’m in an industry that seems to have an inordinate portion of ex military) > > Edited to add that I am sure there are some officers who would go down this route, but I doubt anywhere near enough. I don’t have a specific citation, but it seems to be conventional wisdom that extremism is found mostly in the ranks and not so much at the officer level (with obvious exceptions such as Mike Flynn). One of the reasons for using the phrase “black box” in the thread-title is that there is a certain paucity of hard data on the topic. Heads of armed forces would be unlikely to be pleased by poll results that say, for example, ‘_46% of the enlisted ranks would support a violent coup_’—so they, in all likelihood, decline to authorize such studies. So we just don’t know. The problem is, we may find out in a way that offers no way of going back. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2021, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-black-box-us-military-law-enforcement-support-for-a-coup/956253/33 "2021-12-28T00:53:32Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Yes, but no coup can succeed in a place like America without a good veneer of legitimacy. The reason 2020 failed for the GOP was because it was perceived as illegitimate, as sore losers who couldn’t swallow the truth. > > In 2024, a much more skilled GOP could or would pull it off in a way that would seem much more legit, in fact, maybe even have some constitutional backing to it. The trick would be to seize power in a way that made it seem like _Democrats_ were the sore loser insurgents who couldn’t accept their loss. It’s all about perception, and it’s all about the first 24 hours following Election Night. Those 24 hours would be utterly crucial in determining the perception of who was the “entrenched” and who was the “challenger.” Yes, all of that is, alarmingly, quite plausible. And obviously the choices made by the major media outlets will have a lot to do with perceptions created. And (to be Captain Obvious again), those perceptions will have been built up over the weeks and months before the election–weeks and months in which the business interests of the media lie in “getting eyeballs.” How do they get eyeballs? By making sure that the message is '_ **what’s happening is that two perfectly-legitimate sides are engaged in high-stakes conflict.** ’_ So for media profits, it’s crucial that whoever the GOP runs–Donald Trump, or Ron DeSantis, or whoever–is seen as Perfectly Legitimate. Any hint that the GOP candidate’s side is 100% going to claim that the election is rigged must be downplayed, because obviously anyone with such a plan is not interested in upholding the Constitution–they are merely power-grabbing. But that must not be mentioned on the evening news, lest viewers start to think this is NOT a horserace between two equally-lawful, equally-justifiable sides. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2021, 1:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-black-box-us-military-law-enforcement-support-for-a-coup/956253/34 "2021-12-28T01:15:28Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > So for media profits, it’s crucial that whoever the GOP runs–Donald Trump, or Ron DeSantis, or whoever–is seen as Perfectly Legitimate. Just the opposite. Back when the President was frequently called a liar, ratings were much higher: [CNN loses nearly 70% of its viewers since Trump left office](https://www.carolinacoastonline.com/national/article_aeea88b8-be10-11eb-90d6-ffe2ec52a2ed.html) Saying that Trump or DeSantis was illegitimate would goose television ratings and national newspaper subscription revenue. P.S. I don’t think mainstream media, at least the newspapers — which is what I know about — have such a low wall between the business and news sides as you imply. The reason they said Trump told untruths wasn’t because they wanted to make more money, but because Trump did lie with unusual frequency. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2021, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-black-box-us-military-law-enforcement-support-for-a-coup/956253/35 "2021-12-29T00:05:41Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Saying that Trump or DeSantis was illegitimate would goose television ratings and national newspaper subscription revenue. - Well, it’s a matter of opinion. Mine is that if CNN and MSNBC adopted the message ‘Republicans, including Presidential candidate \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_, have already declared war on democracy by stating that a free-and-fair election is an impossibility’----which in my view is tantamount to stating ‘Republican 2022 candidates have made themselves illegitimate by refusing good-faith participation in the democratic process’—ratings would tank. Hard. A bit of a test of our competing theories is now underway, due to new anti-democracy messaging from Rand Paul. He said, in effect, that legal-and-valid voting and counting of votes is, by definition, Bad and Wrong: > [@](#): > > …Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) has accused Democrats of “stealing” elections by legally persuading people to vote for them — and people have quickly pointed out to him that’s simply how democracy works. > > …Paul’s tweet read: “How to steal an election: ‘Seeding an area heavy with potential Democratic votes with as many absentee ballots as possible, targeting and convincing potential voters to complete them in a legally valid way, and then harvesting and counting the results.’” CNN’s White House correspondent John Harwood then pointed out: “Convincing potential voters to cast legal ballots is how you win elections in a democracy.” … > **[Rand Paul Ridiculed After Accusing Dems of ‘Stealing’ Elections by Persuading...](https://www.thedailybeast.com/rand-paul-ridiculed-after-accusing-dems-of-stealing-elections-by-persuading-people-to-vote-for-them)** > > People quickly pointed out to the senator that persuading voters is quite a key part of democracy. Paul is, here, stating an illegitimate position for a politician in a democracy: that “democracy” and “stealing elections” are indistinguishable. We shall have to wait and see whether coverage of Paul increases (which would signal that his illegitimacy is attractive or compelling, and thereby driving viewership). ---
**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2021, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-black-box-us-military-law-enforcement-support-for-a-coup/956253/36 "2021-12-29T02:06:51Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > Paul is, here, stating an illegitimate position for a politician in a democracy: that “democracy” and “stealing elections” are indistinguishable. What he wants is “democracy with republican party characteristics”. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2021, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-black-box-us-military-law-enforcement-support-for-a-coup/956253/37 "2021-12-29T02:18:21Z")
Your own quote says this: > [@Sherrerd](#): > > CNN’s White House correspondent John Harwood then pointed out: “Convincing potential voters to cast legal ballots is how you win elections in a democracy.” … So in other words, CNN already did what you claim they wouldn’t do because it’d make their ratings tank… ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2021, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-black-box-us-military-law-enforcement-support-for-a-coup/956253/38 "2021-12-30T00:46:34Z")
> [@Monty](#): > > What he wants is “democracy with republican party characteristics”. Sounds very much like something he’d say, and consider it perfectly reasonable. Be careful–Rand will want to hire you… > [@Babale](#): > > Your own quote says this: > > > [@Sherrerd](#): > > > > CNN’s White House correspondent John Harwood then pointed out: “Convincing potential voters to cast legal ballots is how you win elections in a democracy.” … > > So in other words, CNN already did what you claim they wouldn’t do because it’d make their ratings tank… - No, I didn’t claim that CNN et al would avoid making observations about what a politician said; my claim was about the unlikelihood of the networks _ **characterizing the politicians themselves.** _ (Look at my post.) In other words, if Harwood had said “Rand, with this remark, reveals his unfitness to hold office” or anything similar, that would have been an instance (of pointing out illegitimacy) that would have contradicted my claim. But Harwood did _not_ characterize Rand at all. He simply pointed out the illogic of the position Rand had taken. ---
**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2021, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-black-box-us-military-law-enforcement-support-for-a-coup/956253/39 "2021-12-30T04:27:14Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > > [@Monty](#): > > > > What he wants is “democracy with republican party characteristics”. > > Sounds very much like something he’d say, and consider it perfectly reasonable. Be careful–Rand will want to hire you… You can probably guess what I line I amended there, even if you didn’t already know I live in China. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2021, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-black-box-us-military-law-enforcement-support-for-a-coup/956253/40 "2021-12-31T00:55:36Z")
> [@Monty](#): > > You can probably guess what I line I amended there, even if you didn’t already know I live in China. - Yes, and it’s a good comparison, these days. One wonders if, in five years, anyone in power in China might still believe that claiming to be a “democracy with Chinese characteristics” lends any legitimacy at all. For decades, claiming to be a democracy (of some stripe) _ **did** _ lend legitimacy to a government. But now that the American Republicans are joined with Putin’s Russians and others in striving to make “democracy” a dirty word, perhaps claims will change. “We are an autocracy with Chinese characteristics” may seem like a trendier thing to claim. (And would be more honest, if that’s of any interest.) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-black-box-us-military-law-enforcement-support-for-a-coup/956253.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-black-box-us-military-law-enforcement-support-for-a-coup/956253.md?page=3)