# The Butterfly-In-a-Box Effect **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [January 9, 2014, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-butterfly-in-a-box-effect/678391 "2014-01-09T21:24:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2014, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-butterfly-in-a-box-effect/678391/121 "2014-01-13T22:17:19Z")
> [@Learjeff](#): > > The biggest problem is that they might have trouble figuring out what saltpeter is, where to get it, how to identify it, etc. But once you plant the idea with a big incentive, such problems might be small. But take a look at the actual history of gunpowder weapons. Gunpowder was around for a long time, and people were trying for all that time to make gunpowder weapons more effective. But most of the time the problem wasn’t that they didn’t have good ideas for making more effective weapons, it was that the materials and techniques for making those weapons didn’t exist yet. I suppose if we’re sending firearms back, the most effective easily copied weapon would be something like a rifled flintlock muzzleloader, with a minie-style ball and paper black powder cartridges and an offset socket bayonet. You’d have to make a carbine but you could fit a disassembled rifle with a 3 foot barrel into the box easily. Rifled barrels were an early invention but were very seldom used in combat because they were extremely difficult to load. So your gunsmith in the 1400s is going to know how to make a rifled barrel, and the minie ball solves the loading problem. More sophisticated weapons depend on smokeless powder and percussion caps, neither of which your early gunsmith would be able to make or reverse-engineer. So stick to black powder. Heck, can we add a detachable telescopic sight? I say we can. The idea is to incorporate as many incremental improvements we can onto a single blackpowder weapon than can still be easily understood and copied with native technology. Give the peasant boys back in 1450 an effective rifled flintlock with a bayonet, and they’ll soon have the aristocracy swinging from the lampposts, once lampposts get invented. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2014, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-butterfly-in-a-box-effect/678391/122 "2014-01-13T22:24:43Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > Are you perhaps confusing the [composite bow which was used by the Mongols](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Composite_bow) with the more modern [compound bow?](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compound_bow) Well it’s very possible, in the sense that I definitely am. I blame 20th Century literature: > [@Wikipedia](#): > > In literature of the early 20th century, before the invention of compound bows, composite bows have been described as “compound”.[1] This usage is now outdated. ---
**Author:** ![steronz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steronz/32/11765_2.png) [@steronz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steronz)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2014, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-butterfly-in-a-box-effect/678391/123 "2014-01-13T22:44:49Z")
Assuming I can be somehow alleviated of the actual task of building this, what I’d want is a combination lock, maybe in the shape of a hollow cylinder made up of dial rings. Each ring would have some large number of symbols (whatever would pass the OP’s muster to avoid being “writing” or “pictures”) and there would be however many rings I could cram on this thing and still fit it in the box, say, 1000. The idea is to have a lock that’s unfeasible to brute-force crack. Then I’d gild it and cover it with jewels, and drop it in the lap of some king, whoever would be most likely to add it to the crown jewel collection and keep it safe for 1000 years. Then all I need to do is break into whatever museum it’s stored in 1000 years later and open it. I’d get my 15 minutes of fame and hopefully avoid jail. Unless the existence of this object would somehow prevent me from being born, in which case, bummer. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2014, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-butterfly-in-a-box-effect/678391/124 "2014-01-13T23:08:14Z")
Oh, and for my special rifle I forgot to include a compass in the stock and this thing which tells time. Very important. Maybe include some eye-patches for the poor guys who have to field test it. ---
**Author:** ![August\_West](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/august_west/32/18069_2.png) [@August\_West](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/August_West)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2014, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-butterfly-in-a-box-effect/678391/125 "2014-01-14T17:20:07Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > I actually considered allowing it…but it wouldn’t be fair to allow that, and not allow as many deadly disease variations as could fit into a two by two by two box. This thread is about influencing civilization for good or ill, not "influenza"ing it to death within a couple of years. I think my plan would have required cows to work, anyway. I 'm not sure if Cowpox is airborne, but I don’t think so. IIRC, it was milkmaids and others in physical contact with bovines that showed immunity to smallpox. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2014, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-butterfly-in-a-box-effect/678391/126 "2014-01-14T17:26:44Z")
> [@August\_West](#): > > I think my plan would have required cows to work, anyway. I 'm not sure if Cowpox is airborne, but I don’t think so. IIRC, it was milkmaids and others in physical contact with bovines that showed immunity to smallpox. Also, what would they do with it once they got it? What would an intelligent person do with a vial of cowpox in the year 1014? ---
**Author:** ![HipGnosis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/76d3ee/32.png) [@HipGnosis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HipGnosis)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2014, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-butterfly-in-a-box-effect/678391/127 "2014-01-14T20:25:03Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > Also, what would they do with it once they got it? What would an intelligent person do with a vial of cowpox in the year 1014? Smell it and get his little brother to taste it. ---
**Author:** ![Sailboat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sailboat/32/461_2.png) [@Sailboat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sailboat)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2014, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-butterfly-in-a-box-effect/678391/128 "2014-01-14T20:33:42Z")
> [@Slypork](#): > > I know a long bow wouldn’t fit in a 2x2x2 box but a compound bow scaled down to about 3’ (the corner to corner measurement) would fit nicely. Anyone who opened the box would immediately recognize it as a variation on a standard bow. Take it to a competent smithy and/or archer and they would be able to divine how it works. Pulleys had been around for centuries so they would be able to figure out the advantages of the system. Make the bow out of metal (remember a bow is basically a leaf spring) instead of some “modern” material and they can extrapolate how to make it bigger, up to and including ballista size. > > Now you send it to France. William hasn’t conquered England yet so he now has a new tool in his arsenal. The French can use it to push back the Holy Roman Empire which will postpone or limit its power. Would the Crusades still happen? With a strong France would there ever be an Inquisition? With both France and England now armed with the same weapon the English no longer have the advantage of the longbow they used with such devastating effect during the 100 Year’s War. Eh. The problem with France’s use of missile weapons was mostly ideological, not technological. They did not _want_ a weapon that might make a commoner the equal of a knight. While the Genoese crossbowmen they employed in the big battles were not quite the technological equals of longbowmen, the French commanders never gave them much chance to succeed. And France had bows of roughly equivalent power to the longbow, and could have fielded them if they really wanted to. Your bow would be a threat to the status quo, not an equalizer. And as we eventually learned in 1789, the French nobility was quite right to fear an armed peasantry. > [@Slypork](#): > > Imagine Marco Polo traveling to 13th Century China with these weapons. As much as I love longbows, I’m going to have to point out that the Mongol composite bow was quite capable of dealing death at equivalent range and penetration. If you’re proposing China could have held off the Mongols with such a bow…well, it’s not like China had never seen a Mongol composite bow. They could have made and used composite bows themselves if they’d been so inclined. ---
**Author:** ![Learjeff](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/94ad74/32.png) [@Learjeff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Learjeff)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2014, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-butterfly-in-a-box-effect/678391/129 "2014-01-14T20:52:10Z")
> [@Lemur866](#): > > But take a look at the actual history of gunpowder weapons. Gunpowder was around for a long time, and people were trying for all that time to make gunpowder weapons more effective. But most of the time the problem wasn’t that they didn’t have good ideas for making more effective weapons, it was that the materials and techniques for making those weapons didn’t exist yet. That was exactly my point in a different comment. In any case, I bet exposure to the possibility of gunpowder would have advanced things a bit, but I do wonder whether it would have been revolutionary, for the same reasons you give. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2014, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-butterfly-in-a-box-effect/678391/130 "2014-01-14T20:59:12Z")
I wonder if you could stuff a miniature model Bessemer converter in there. ---
**Author:** ![MacLir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9e8a1a/32.png) [@MacLir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MacLir)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2014, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-butterfly-in-a-box-effect/678391/131 "2014-01-15T16:17:08Z")
> [@NoClueBoy](#): > > Yeah, that’s why I was saying I would have to really research who to send it to. I’m sure someone was probably thinking about such things before Gootie. Printing presses were even in use before Gutenberg. They used a single, whole page engraving plate. Most printed items were heavy on the graphics, with text to explain or amplify. Therefore, although the subjects were literary; the first printed materials could be described as … Wait for it … Comic books :smack: ---
**Author:** ![Meow\_Max](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/59ef9b/32.png) [@Meow\_Max](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meow_Max)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2014, 4:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-butterfly-in-a-box-effect/678391/132 "2014-01-16T04:07:51Z")
I’d send a working lead/acid battery to someone in the Song Dynasty in China. ---
**Author:** ![stui\_magpie](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stui_magpie/32/11010_2.png) [@stui\_magpie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/stui_magpie)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2014, 5:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-butterfly-in-a-box-effect/678391/133 "2014-01-16T05:53:37Z")
A couple of options. 1. A small thermonuclear device sent to detonate on arrival delivered to the Vatican. Would be interesting to see the path of RC religion if the Vatican was wiped out 1000 years ago. 2. If the rule on sending living things could be relaxed in this instance, I’d send a box of live seedlings to an Aboriginal tribe around where Sydney currently is in Australia, near a good source of fresh water. Send them Sweet corn, beans, chillis and tomatoes. Would be fascinating to see what may have happened if they had developed into an agricultural society 1000 years ago, whether other technology would have developed as a consequence etc. ---
**Author:** ![NiceGuyJack](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/niceguyjack/32/3069_2.png) [@NiceGuyJack](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NiceGuyJack)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 6:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-butterfly-in-a-box-effect/678391/134 "2014-01-17T06:11:47Z")
A replica Viking helmet with horns in the hopes the Norse would start adding horns to their helmets. That way, the current false depiction of Vikings with horned helmets would then be accurate. Although at 1014, may be at the end of the Viking age. Perhaps ad another 100 years? ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 6:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-butterfly-in-a-box-effect/678391/135 "2014-01-17T06:18:18Z")
On an old episode of the Brit show QI they were talking about why Chinese fell behind the West technologically. One reason they gave was porcelain. It worked well for cups and bowls and things so they never pursued transparent glass, then lenses, telescopes, microscopes, etc. So send them a magnifying lens and see if they get the idea? ---
**Author:** ![Nzinga\_Seated](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/b5ac83/32.png) [@Nzinga\_Seated](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nzinga_Seated)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2014, 6:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-butterfly-in-a-box-effect/678391/136 "2014-01-17T06:22:22Z")
> [@RadioWave](#): > > …I also thought about breaking a baby horse’s legs and cramming it inside a North American box… Jesus fuck, RadioWave. I don’t want to play this game anymore. ---
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2014, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-butterfly-in-a-box-effect/678391/137 "2014-01-19T15:43:39Z")
An [Antikythera mechanism](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antikythera_mechanism)? ---
**Author:** ![TruCelt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/trucelt/32/523_2.png) [@TruCelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TruCelt)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2014, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-butterfly-in-a-box-effect/678391/138 "2014-01-19T23:43:26Z")
> [@August\_West](#): > > Does a virus count as “live”? Because my thought was to send Cowpox to North America. Sad that this got disallowed - it was brilliant. A mobile of the solar system to my family farm in Ireland. I feel certain they’ll figure it out. ---
**Author:** ![spinky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@spinky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/spinky)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2014, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-butterfly-in-a-box-effect/678391/139 "2014-01-20T23:56:30Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > Speaking of which, do you have any suggestions pertaining to the topic? Someone already did mine. ---
**Author:** ![Ranger\_Jeff](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ranger_jeff/32/2065_2.png) [@Ranger\_Jeff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ranger_Jeff)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2014, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-butterfly-in-a-box-effect/678391/140 "2014-01-21T01:47:27Z")
I don’t think a great leap of technology would be much help to anybody. They’d just stand around scratching their heads trying to figure out what it’s supposed to be. Something 1 or 2 steps advanced from their current level of technology, on the other hand, might give them a bit of a boost. Maybe some minor advancement in hand tools? A metal plow blade and some picture instructions for it’s use? Reins, bits, and bridles for a horse? A “Cross your Heart” bra with picture instructions. Heck, I’d probably just send back a treat from the future to make them happy for a couple of minutes. I’m thinking of filling the box with Hostess Twinkies. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-butterfly-in-a-box-effect/678391.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-butterfly-in-a-box-effect/678391.md?page=8)