RickJay:
The election in 2006 was forced by a vote of non confidence that took place before the full Gomery report could be released (Martin had promised to call an election within one month of the full report’s release, but by then Stephen Harper was Prime Minister) so you can’t say I was wrong. We’ll never know now.
Well, except that you also thought it “very unlikely” that the Liberals would lose a non-confidence vote:
That’s my point. It’s really not clear.
Regrettably, the one policy Stephen Harper has clearly come out for is that he opposes gay marriage - a loser’s position, one that has absolutely zero chance of winning out. I cannot stress this enough; the likelihood that gay marriage will be a full reality in Canada is absolutely one hundred percent. It is a done deal. Harper has placed his party on what is absolutely, totally, unquestionably guaranteed to be the wrong side of the issue. It is a political gaffe of stupefying proportions. The tide of history and opinion absolutely will make gay marriage a reality in Canada; it is as certain as the Sun rising in the east. He was a bloody fool to stomp his feet on the other side of that fence.
But the Conservatives can recover from that error… if they would just allow themselves to be a true opposition party for a few years, as opposed to their usual ongoing efforts to reverse the result of the last election.
If the Conservatives were smart they never would have even attempted the last nonconfidence vote; had it passed they likely would have bene punished at the polls. Their smart move now is to play a proper Opposition role and wait for the Liberals to break their promise to hold an election after the Gomery report, which is virtually certain. When the Liberals come out with some lame-ass excuse for not holding the election they promised, one of two things will happen;
(The likely scenario) The NDP, so filled with pride that they’re sort of kind of part of a government if you squint your eyes and look at them sideways, will also come up with some lame rationalization for the broken promise. Both the Liberals and NDP will look bad. Or,
(Very unlikely) Either the NDP, or a sufficient combination of irate backbenchers, will turn on the Liberals for breaking the election promise, the government will fall in disgrace, and the Conservatives will be in a position to pick up the most pieces.
Assuming #1 holds true, the Conservatives would be smart NOT to attempt another nonconfidence vote. Just let the busted election promise sit there like a fart at a dinner party. If the Conservatives play the next 3 years cool and reserved, Paul Martin will hand them many votes through sheer ineptitude. The Conservatives need to stake out a clear platform that includes constructive planks, not the idiot anti-gay-marriage stance that amounts to trying to hold back a hurricane.
(link to post)
I hope this doesn’t come off as just trying to score a debate point - rather your pronouncement that it’s 100% certain that the Liberals are going to try to form a coalition minority government strongly reminds me of this.