I’m with you, no matter the nasty behaviour of members of their party, there must be an excuse according to them.
Press 1 if you will vote Liberal.
Press 2 if you will definitely vote Liberal.
Press 3 if you will absolutely vote Liberal.
Press 4 if you will positively vote Liberal.
Press 5 to end this call, and request that a Liberal drive you to the poll on Monday.
I object to the obvious “well we’re just throwing it out there. Good on the Sun TV guys for doing due diligence”. Gutless worms.
Apparently the jackass thought his drinking buddies would give him a pass based on the earlier Sun Median line of questioning of Ignatieff
Sun
Which was apparently either sloppy reporting or deliberate lying according to the Ottawa Citizen
I managed to catch a few ads by the liberals and NDP last night. No wonder the liberals are cratering - their ads suck.
The two Liberal ads I saw last night didn’t even mention Ignatieff. What the hell? Do they think their own leader is so weak that they can’t even mention him by name? On the other hand, they’re probably right about that. Which says it all, doesn’t it?
In contrast, the NDP ad put Jack Layton front and center. It seems someone there still understands that politics is about leaders and people.
The liberal ad was a typical attack ad - gloomy music, and a pooly CGI’d spinning Loony with an image of a scowling Harper on one side, and a scowling Layton on the other. The message was, “The NDP and the Conservatives - two sides of the same coin.”
First of all, they’re not. They’re very different. Trying to equate them just muddies the liberal’s own message. Second, they built an entire ad campaign on a freaking cliche’? They would have flunked 10th grade english for such weak writing. All I got out of that ad was, “Liberals hate everyone else, and we’re not particularly good at anything. Vote for us, and we’ll depress you for the next four years.”
In contrast, Layton’s ad was all about smilin’ Jack. Images of him laughing, bantering with people, having a good time. There was nothing negative about the ad at all. It was all positive and upbeat. It told people why to vote for the NDP, not why to vote against the other guys. And Layton looks like a great spokesman and a fun guy - someone you would enjoy as your leader.
If this is the best the Liberals can do, they’re doomed. The NDP, on the other hand, are doing it right. At least in that ad.
Funny, but I never saw a single Conservative ad all night, but I saw Liberal and NDP ads constantly. Maybe it was just a fluke.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Conservatives didn’t bother with much television advertising in Edmonton. Since Jaffers is not running, they will probably take all the local ridings easily.
Even in the context of the ad it’s amazingly hard to tell just what their point is. Even if you’re going to trot out a tired cliche, explain WHY you’re saying they’re two sides of the same coin.
It’s not hard to see why the NDP is so far ahead of the Liberals. They deserve to be. Campaigns matter, and the NDP has run a terrific campaign while the Liberals have gone off the rails since Week 2.
It’s hard to gauge just what will happen on Monday because the NDP jump has different effects in different ridings; in some places the NDP can win, in some places it makes it likelier the Conservatives will win, in some places they could take seats from the Bloc, who the hell knows. What is for sure is that unless NDP support in the polls is overstating what will happen on Monday - and that is entirely possible, and there are many examples of such things happening - the Liberals could be headed for an absolutely catastrophic result.
I know the Lib campaign has been a disaster (hey, just look at the polls), but what exactly have they done to earn such a shellacking? Sure, their ads are for crap, but so are the Con ads - and the Cons have many times more scandals and gaffes. Yet the Cons haven’t moved in the polls.
The Conservatives are down according to every poll. They’re in the lead but are 3-6 points back of where they were.
I have to go back to something I’ve said before; if you want people to vote for you you have to give them a clear reason to vote for you.
The Conservatives, whatever you think of them, have a clear, if uninspiring, message; vote for us and you get stable government and a firm hand on the economic steering wheel. It’s produced clear, if uninspiring, results.
The NDP, whatever you think of them, as a clear and very positive message; Jack Layton is going to give you more stuff if you’re an ordinary schmoe (and pretty much everyone is.) It’s produced positive results.
The Green Party still manages to hold on to one voter in twenty despite being a hopeless lost cause - and that’s a lot, when you think about it - because they have an absolutely crystal-clear purpose and message.
The Liberals… well, to be honest, I still don’t know what the hell their message is. They talked about helping families but that was lifted from the NDP’s previous platforms. They started off with a positive message but went almost totally negative; they have no clear, central message; their leader’s image hasn’t really been defined, and he himself is all over the map. The Liberal message, to be quite honest, appears to be that you should vote Liberal because they’re Liberals, and Liberals always deserve to win. If anything, that message is going to seem repellent to a lot of people.
I can’t help but notice the Bloc Quebecois’s campaign is going equally horribly, and the thing is, THEIR campaign is just as message-free; it’s basically “Vote for us because we represent your interests,” which is sort of tautological, since that’s what all politicians claim to do. They (at first) avoided admitting they were a separatist party, thereby giving taking away much of their raison d’etre, and thanks to the NDP surge haven’t any real differentiation in terms of social policy, so it amounts to “Vote BQ because you should.” It’s just as lame as the Liberal message and it’s proving just as successful.
Of course every party has engaged in vicious attack ads, but you need to lay out a clear image of what people are voting for, especially in a multi-party system. Party A convincing you not to vote for Party B might convince you to vote for Party C, not Party A.
The Conservatives are the safe ones - they’ve been in power all through the financial crisis, and Canada has come out of in the best shape of any country in the G8. Now, whether they deserve credit for that or not is another question we can debate, but the fact is that they’ve got the trust of Canadians that they won’t do anything stupid or reckless, and the old tactic of trying to smear the Conservatives as dangerous religious right zealots just doesn’t fly any more.
In other words, it’s up to the other parties to earn their way to power. They have to prove that they’ve got what it takes, and have a vision they can sell to the public to convince them that they can do a better job. The NDP is trying to do that, while the liberals are just trying to discredit the other guys. That was never going to work. Trying to play on scandals only works when people are already unhappy with the party in power or with the economy.
Also, I’m wondering if negative campaigning has the same effect in the internet age as it had in the past. It’s too easy to cross-check these things now, and the people who actually care and are active in politics already know this stuff. It may be that the Conservatives had already taken their hits over those scandals and would be even more popular without them. In which case all the Liberals could manage to do by going negative is to pull themselves down into the mud, leaving Jack Layton as the last man standing in opposition.
Also, I think it really says something that the liberals are trying to downplay their own leader. That’s just sad. Time for Ignatieff to go.
I wouldn’t be surprised if a large part of the dip was the Liberals losing the “anybody but the Conservatives” vote.
But that doesn’t explain anything.
The “Anything but the Conservatives” vote isn’t projecting to be much different than it was in 2008. In 2008 the CPC got 36.27% of the vote, which is more or less what they’re expected to get this time. There isn’t, as near as we can tell so far, any significant change in the number of people voting Conservative. So what seems to be droving it all from the Liberals to the NDP?
- Shitty leader. Ignatieff has been an unmitigated disaster.
- Shitty campaign. What’s the message?
- Shitty party. What’s the platform?
Incidentally, what’s being underreported is how much this could affect the Bloc.
Forum Research’s latest poll suggests the near-annihilation of the BQ, down to 3 seats. Wow. I don’t think that’s likely, but it sure would be nice.
And let’s get some PREDICTIONS Going! Place Yer Bets!
I’m calling it:
Conservatives - 155
NDP - 63
Liberal - 60
Bloc - 30
Yep, I’m expecting a slight NDP bounceback and some Liberal/NDP splitting.
I’d be happy if any party got a majority government as a result of the near annihilation of the Bloc. I suppose My new found affection for Jack Layton may well be because he’s destroying them.. Frankly, I still don’t understand why and I really haven’t heard any commentary to explain it.
Conservatives…149
NDP…101
Liberals…34
Bloc…24
I don’t think anyone knows why they’ve taken off so huge in Quebec. It’s a huge surprise.
Once they caught the Liberals overall the surge ahead of them made sense; the NDP were historically held back because nobody wanted to waste a vote, but then the Quebec surge happened, the national numbers started evening up, and people who were grudgingly voting for The Count and Team Red were happy to switch to a party that looked like a winner. But what’s bizarre is the extent of the initial surge in Quebec. Supposedly Layton did great on “Tout le Parle en Monde” and in the Francophone debates, but, geez, that much better than in 2008?
The NDP in Quebec is facing some embarassment in that some of their candidates don’t live in (and might never have been in, from the sounds of it) the ridings they’re running for, don’t speak French in ridings that are almost entirely Francophone, stuff like that. For years the NDP have run students and volunteers from other parts of the country as placeholders in Quebec ridings they just assumed were unwinnable and so wouldn’t bother to vet real candidates.
This might cost them some ridings now, and might result in some very embarassing post-election gaffes. I said upthread “ground game” is overrated but in some of these closer ridings, the NDP organization is so thin that it might matter a lot.
Bold!
I think -
Conservatives - 131
Liberals - 77
NDP - 60
Bloc - 40
based largely on current predictions on threehundredeight.com. I don’t think the surge in NDP support is necessarily going to translate into a lot more seats for them, and it may well scare a lot of soft supporters of other parties into showing up at the polls.
Conservatives: 138
Liberal : …70
NDP:…69
Bloc:…31
I sincerely hope you’re right on this Rick, but I doubt the Conservative majority. There may be enough vote splitting to support the theory, but I just don’t see it.
I still think the Liberals will come out ahead over the NDP and that it will be a Conservative minority: and then of course a loss of confidence vote and a coalition. God knows which one will now become PM.
I still can’t believe that anyone would vote NDP, let alone the tidal wave of support they’re receiving: smiles and snake oil indeed.