# The Canadope Café, 2014 Edition: In 3-D!

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-canadope-cafe-2014-edition-in-3-d/677612>\
**Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\
**Created:** [January 1, 2014, 5:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-canadope-cafe-2014-edition-in-3-d/677612 "2014-01-01T05:07:50Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 35

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**Author:** ![Muffin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/muffin/32/4341_2.png) [@Muffin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Muffin)\
**Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-canadope-cafe-2014-edition-in-3-d/677612/681 "2014-03-18T23:37:37Z")

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> [@Muffin](#):
>
> How would separation affect the economy of the ROC when one considers the economic PQ would take?

Correction: “. . . the economic hit PQ would take?”

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**Author:** ![Cat\_Whisperer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cat_whisperer/32/4839_2.png) [@Cat\_Whisperer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cat_Whisperer)\
**Post date:** [March 19, 2014, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-canadope-cafe-2014-edition-in-3-d/677612/682 "2014-03-19T00:37:07Z")

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> [@Le\_Ministre\_de\_l\_au-dela](#):
>
> There was a good [article in the Globe and Mail](http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/the-staggering-price-of-quebec-independence/article17529502/#dashboard/follows/)on the ‘price’ of separation.
> 
> Sadly, it’s in English, and so, will be dismissed as fear-mongering by the PQ…

Another question is, what would those same calculations look like for, say for example, Alberta? It seems to me that these calculations confirm that Quebec takes more from the ROC than it gives, but I don’t know if any province’s financials would look the same if you took the ROC away.

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**Author:** ![Muffin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/muffin/32/4341_2.png) [@Muffin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Muffin)\
**Post date:** [March 19, 2014, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-canadope-cafe-2014-edition-in-3-d/677612/683 "2014-03-19T01:16:13Z")

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> **[Equalization payments in Canada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equalization_payments_in_Canada)**
>
> In Canada, the federal government makes equalization payments to provincial governments of lesser fiscal capacity so that "reasonably comparable" levels of public services can be provided at similar levels of taxation. Equalization payments are entrenched in the Constitution Act of 1982, subsection 36(2). 
> The program is financed through the federal government's general revenues, which are largely sourced from federal taxes. Provincial governments make no contributions. 
> Payment amounts are ...

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**Author:** ![Grey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b782af/32.png) [@Grey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grey)\
**Post date:** [March 19, 2014, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-canadope-cafe-2014-edition-in-3-d/677612/684 "2014-03-19T02:19:48Z")

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A quick and dirty look says of Alberta’s 44.7 billion dollars in revenue (2013-14 forecast) 7.7 was from federal transfers.

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**Author:** ![Moonlitherial](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4bbf92/32.png) [@Moonlitherial](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moonlitherial)\
**Post date:** [March 19, 2014, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-canadope-cafe-2014-edition-in-3-d/677612/685 "2014-03-19T14:08:44Z")

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> [@Muffin](#):
>
> [Equalization payments in Canada - Wikipedia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equalization_payments_in_Canada)

> [@Grey](#):
>
> A quick and dirty look says of Alberta’s 44.7 billion dollars in revenue (2013-14 forecast) 7.7 was from federal transfers.

Both of these are correct. While Equalization payments (which AB does not receive) are federal transfers not all federal transfers are equalization payments.

[Federal transfers](http://www.fin.gc.ca/fedprov/mtp-eng.asp#Quebec)  
That means that Quebec separating means a gross financial benefit to the ROC of more than 17.9 billion dollars next year or more than 25% of their budget.

Subtract a few bucks for the costs of right of passage for Canadians between the two sections of the country and just some rough calculations shows that the 27 million Canadians left would each get a discount off their taxes (or more likely our politicians would spend it) of about $500 bucks a year. If they take their share of the debt with them things look even better for us.

Can the ROC vote on Quebec separation?

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**Author:** ![Cat\_Whisperer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cat_whisperer/32/4839_2.png) [@Cat\_Whisperer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cat_Whisperer)\
**Post date:** [March 19, 2014, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-canadope-cafe-2014-edition-in-3-d/677612/686 "2014-03-19T23:51:14Z")

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> [@Moonlitherial](#):
>
> \<snip\>  
> Subtract a few bucks for the costs of right of passage for Canadians between the two sections of the country and just some rough calculations shows that the 27 million Canadians left would each get a discount off their taxes (or more likely our politicians would spend it) of about $500 bucks a year. If they take their share of the debt with them things look even better for us.
> 
> Can the ROC vote on Quebec separation?

I really don’t think they want that. 😃

That said, I honestly don’t think the ROC would vote Quebec out.

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**Author:** ![Cat\_Whisperer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cat_whisperer/32/4839_2.png) [@Cat\_Whisperer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cat_Whisperer)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2014, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-canadope-cafe-2014-edition-in-3-d/677612/687 "2014-03-20T00:07:52Z")

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Breaking news - Alberta Premier Alison Redford announces that she is resigning as Premier of Alberta, effective Sunday. :eek:

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**Author:** ![Leaffan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/leaffan/32/299_2.png) [@Leaffan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaffan)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2014, 12:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-canadope-cafe-2014-edition-in-3-d/677612/688 "2014-03-20T00:10:17Z")

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Wow. I knew she was under pressure, but that’s unexpected. Who’s the heir apparent?

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**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2014, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-canadope-cafe-2014-edition-in-3-d/677612/689 "2014-03-20T00:39:12Z")

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> [@Moonlitherial](#):
>
> Both of these are correct. While Equalization payments (which AB does not receive) are federal transfers not all federal transfers are equalization payments.
> 
> [Federal transfers](http://www.fin.gc.ca/fedprov/mtp-eng.asp#Quebec)  
> That means that Quebec separating means a gross financial benefit to the ROC of more than 17.9 billion dollars next year or more than 25% of their budget.
> 
> Subtract a few bucks for the costs of right of passage for Canadians between the two sections of the country and just some rough calculations shows that the 27 million Canadians left would each get a discount off their taxes (or more likely our politicians would spend it) of about $500 bucks a year. If they take their share of the debt with them things look even better for us.
> 
> Can the ROC vote on Quebec separation?

Aren’t you forgetting that the non-equalization transfers come out of the federal taxes paid by Quebec residents? We don’t get to keep taxing them if they separate.

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**Author:** ![Cat\_Whisperer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cat_whisperer/32/4839_2.png) [@Cat\_Whisperer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cat_Whisperer)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2014, 12:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-canadope-cafe-2014-edition-in-3-d/677612/690 "2014-03-20T00:44:59Z")

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> [@Leaffan](#):
>
> Wow. I knew she was under pressure, but that’s unexpected. Who’s the heir apparent?

That was indeed unexpected. All the troubles she’s had lately wouldn’t have even made former Premier Ralph Klein break a sweat! As for the heir apparent, I don’t really know. My inclination is towards Doug Horner, who is currently the President of the Treasury Board and Minister of Finance.

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**Author:** ![Raygun99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/6f9a4e/32.png) [@Raygun99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Raygun99)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2014, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-canadope-cafe-2014-edition-in-3-d/677612/691 "2014-03-20T00:48:08Z")

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Ralph Klein never had the Wild Rose party to worry about. This is straight out of the Stelmach playbook - resign, get a new leader, promise change, win an election.

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**Author:** ![Kenm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/bc79bd/32.png) [@Kenm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kenm)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2014, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-canadope-cafe-2014-edition-in-3-d/677612/692 "2014-03-20T01:42:25Z")

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The CBC, as is its wont, increasingly, [**screwed up**](http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alison-redford-resigning-as-alberta-premier-1.2579356), unless it knows something we don’t.

> [@](#):
>
> A former lawyer, Redford was first elected to the Alberta legislature in 2008.

She was disbarred? She unfrocked herself? In mixed company?

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**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2014, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-canadope-cafe-2014-edition-in-3-d/677612/693 "2014-03-20T02:33:35Z")

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It’s been fixed; now reads:

> [@](#):
>
> A lawyer, Redford was first elected to the Alberta legislature in 2008. She led the Tories to a majority in the April 2012 provincial election.

The [Law Society of Alberta web-site](http://www.lawsociety.ab.ca/extra/lawyer_directory.aspx) lists her status as: “Practising (Corporate/Government Counsel)”

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**Author:** ![Muffin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/muffin/32/4341_2.png) [@Muffin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Muffin)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2014, 5:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-canadope-cafe-2014-edition-in-3-d/677612/694 "2014-03-20T05:59:16Z")

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> [@Gorsnak](#):
>
> Aren’t you forgetting that the non-equalization transfers come out of the federal taxes paid by Quebec residents? We don’t get to keep taxing them if they separate.

Bingo. That and the effect of a presumably significantly diminished Quebec economy makes me wonder what the economic effect will be on the ROC. I don’t expect that it would be good.

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**Author:** ![Spoons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spoons/32/3141_2.png) [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2014, 6:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-canadope-cafe-2014-edition-in-3-d/677612/695 "2014-03-20T06:22:15Z")

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> [@Cat\_Whisperer](#):
>
> That was indeed unexpected. All the troubles she’s had lately wouldn’t have even made former Premier Ralph Klein break a sweat! As for the heir apparent, I don’t really know. My inclination is towards Doug Horner, who is currently the President of the Treasury Board and Minister of Finance.

Perhaps not as unexpected as it might seem on the surface. A $45,000 trip to South Africa (when she could have flown for free on the federal government’s tab) and a $16,000 two-day trip to Chicago and Toronto, have been rankling southern Albertans of my acquaintance.

With the exception of the city of Lethbridge itself, I’m in Wild Rose country. Most in the surrounding communities don’t like the Conservatives, mainly because they are not conservative enough; with social issues, yes, but also with tax dollars. No sense handing them yet another reason to _not_ vote Conservative next time around. Or, as **Raygun99** aptly summed it up: “This is straight out of the Stelmach playbook - resign, get a new leader, promise change, win an election.”

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**Author:** ![Spoons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spoons/32/3141_2.png) [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2014, 6:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-canadope-cafe-2014-edition-in-3-d/677612/696 "2014-03-20T06:46:20Z")

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> [@Muffin](#):
>
> Bingo. That and the effect of a presumably significantly diminished Quebec economy makes me wonder what the economic effect will be on the ROC. I don’t expect that it would be good.

I think it is far too early to be able to predict whether it would be good or bad. Oh, I suppose we can speculate, but remember that we are three conditions away from such a scenario:

1. Quebec must vote the PQ in to a majority government;
2. The PQ must call a referendum (using a “clear question,” _Clarity Act_) on separation during their mandate; and
3. Quebecers must vote “by a clear majority” (_Reference re Quebec Separation_) for separation.

I would suggest that as each condition is fulfilled (or not), we’ll be in a better position to speculate on the economic impact on the ROC. But right now, we’re not.

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**Author:** ![Le\_Ministre\_de\_l\_au-dela](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/le_ministre_de_l_au-dela/32/12181_2.png) [@Le\_Ministre\_de\_l\_au-dela](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Le_Ministre_de_l_au-dela)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2014, 12:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-canadope-cafe-2014-edition-in-3-d/677612/697 "2014-03-20T12:15:33Z")

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The more the campaign focuses on separation, [the worse it is for the PQ](http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/quebec-liberals-hold-five-point-lead-over-pq-poll-1.1736929)in the opinion polls.

> [@](#):
>
> A vast majority of respondents, some 72 per cent, said that a vote for the PQ is a vote for a referendum on separation, the poll found. Thirty per cent of respondents said they are in favour of Quebec’s independence, while 51 per cent said they are not.
> 
> Barely a third of Quebecers are in favour of sovereignty, the poll found.
> 
> The PQ was polling more strongly at the outset of the campaign, when talk was focused on the party’s proposed charter of values, pollster Luc Durand told CTV News.

So maybe there’s some hope that the electorate isn’t as delusional as the PQ candidates. [Rick Mercer](http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/03/19/rick-mercer-pq-marois-delusional-video_n_4993957.html) on the subject.

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**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2014, 12:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-canadope-cafe-2014-edition-in-3-d/677612/698 "2014-03-20T12:51:07Z")

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After two weeks of gentle melting in Regina, we woke up this morning to a heavy snowfall, still coming down.

Piper Cub looked out the window and said “I don’t get it.”

We said, “What don’t you get?”

Cub: “Today was supposed to be the first day of summer!”

Then he went back to bed and pulled the covers over his head.

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**Author:** ![wthoms](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/71c47a/32.png) [@wthoms](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wthoms)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2014, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-canadope-cafe-2014-edition-in-3-d/677612/699 "2014-03-20T13:05:27Z")

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Leafs fan on the ice! Leafs fan on the ice!

[http://blogs.canoe.ca/slam/hockey/leafs-fan-on-the-ice-leafs-fan-on-the-ice/](http://blogs.canoe.ca/slam/hockey/leafs-fan-on-the-ice-leafs-fan-on-the-ice/)

Could this be someone we know…

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**Author:** ![Cat\_Whisperer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cat_whisperer/32/4839_2.png) [@Cat\_Whisperer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cat_Whisperer)\
**Post date:** [March 20, 2014, 1:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-canadope-cafe-2014-edition-in-3-d/677612/700 "2014-03-20T13:10:09Z")

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> [@Spoons](#):
>
> Perhaps not as unexpected as it might seem on the surface.\<snip\>

Agreed. It wasn’t like it was just out-of-the-blue. As I mentioned earlier, I’m more used to the Klein style of premiering - let all the scandals just roll off your back.

So, if Quebecers don’t want to separate, and the ROC don’t want Quebec to separate, why does this continue to be an issue?

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