# The collapse of Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria? **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [December 7, 2024, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314 "2024-12-07T18:51:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2024, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/1 "2024-12-07T18:51:16Z")
The last ~10 days have seen dramatic advances of various rebel factions across Syria. Government forces have been rapidly withdrawing on many fronts, often with scarcely any fighting. Aleppo fell just a week ago, Hama a couple days ago, and rebel forces are currently working on encircling Homs. If successful, this would cut Damascus off from the coast. And then beginning just yesterday, rebel forces began operating in the south, and now appear to “control” (i.e., are operating with near impunity in those areas) most everything south of Damascus. This seems to be being mostly ignored by the mainstream media. I became aware of it because some of the channels I follow on Bluesky (and formerly on Twitter) to keep me apprised of goings on in Ukraine have been commenting on it. Resource - a frequently updated map, clicking on any of the icons scrolls the right column to the corresponding news entry, and you can adjust the date to see how rapid the advances have been. Is this the end of the al-Assads? ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2024, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/2 "2024-12-07T19:11:19Z")
[NYT reporting here](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/12/07/world/syria-war-damascus?unlocked_article_code=1.fk4.1CPu.yOqeKOH6Ycbj&smid=url-share) (gift link) that Syrian forces are withdrawing from Damascus suburbs. The Iranians have already made it clear they will not be coming to the rescue and I doubt Russia could even if they wanted to do it. Assad may find he needs to make a run for it in the next day or two. Probably to Moscow? It does look like the end is near. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2024, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/3 "2024-12-07T19:13:39Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > It does look like the end is near. I am not sure there is a better future for the Syrians any time soon but good riddance to Bashar al-Assad. He completely ruined his country. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2024, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/4 "2024-12-07T19:13:47Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Assad may find he needs to make a run for it in the next day or two. Probably to Moscow? It does look like the end is near. I was thinking either Russia or Iran; I’m not sure how many other countries would be willing to take him in. As it is, according to the AP: > [@](#): > > Insurgents’ stunning march across Syria gained speed on Saturday with news that they had reached the suburbs of the capital and with the government forced to deny rumors that [President Bashar Assad](https://apnews.com/hub/bashar-assad) had fled the country. It does seem to be a matter of when, not if. > **[Syrian insurgents reach the capital's suburbs. Worried residents flee and...](https://apnews.com/article/syria-assad-sweida-daraa-homs-hts-qatar-7f65823bbf0a7bd331109e8dff419430)** > > Insurgents’ stunning march across Syria is gaining speed with news that they have reached the suburbs of the capital of Damascus. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2024, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/5 "2024-12-07T19:13:55Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > This seems to be being mostly ignored by the mainstream media. Trump coming to power; French government falling; auto-coup attempt in South Korea; war in the Ukraine; health insurance vampire assassinated on the streets of New York; Justin dancing while Montreal riots; there’s only so much the poor mainstream media can cover, for the love of God! ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2024, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/6 "2024-12-07T19:16:23Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > This seems to be being mostly ignored by the mainstream media. FWIW, I used to use the Washington Post as one of my main news sources; I cancelled my subscription before the election. I now go directly to the AP, plus NPR and the BBC, and they have all been extensively covering the Syria story. ---
**Author:** ![ByrdJrHs](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/bc79bd/32.png) [@ByrdJrHs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ByrdJrHs)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2024, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/7 "2024-12-07T20:01:03Z")
I lost interest in the Syrian civil war, it seemed to be a stalemate with Assad having the upper hand for a long while. I have seen plenty of stories on main stream media, it’s just not at the top of the webpage. My concern is that the militia currently making the significant gains doesn’t seem to be supported by the US or any western power. And “formerly affiliated with Al-Qadia “. Though they claim they aren’t into that anymore. > **[Syrian opposition forces enter the key city of Hama, in a new blow to Assad's...](https://www.npr.org/2024/12/05/nx-s1-5217637/syria-rebels-hts-hama-assad)** > > Syrian rebels have entered another major city, in a further blow to President Bashar Assad after they took over Aleppo days earlier. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2024, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/8 "2024-12-07T20:01:41Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > > [@Gorsnak](#): > > > > This seems to be being mostly ignored by the mainstream media. > > FWIW, I used to use the Washington Post as one of my main news sources; I cancelled my subscription before the election. I now go directly to the AP, plus NPR and the BBC, and they have all been extensively covering the Syria story Just checked. It’s at the top of the Washington Post web page. @Gorsnak, what are you considering “mainstream media”? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2024, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/9 "2024-12-07T20:08:30Z")
I think that the biggest implication of this is that it’s a country that used to be in Russia’s sphere of influence, but now isn’t any more. That’s likely to be emboldening to rebels in other parts of the Russian empire. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2024, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/10 "2024-12-07T20:14:08Z")
> [@ByrdJrHs](#): > > My concern is that the militia currently making the significant gains doesn’t seem to be supported by the US or any western power. And “formerly affiliated with Al-Qadia “. Though they claim they aren’t into that anymore. I’m not sure there are any good guys in this conflict, but it doesn’t take much to be less bad than Bashar al-Assad. ---
**Author:** ![JacobSwan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a6a055/32.png) [@JacobSwan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JacobSwan)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2024, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/11 "2024-12-07T20:15:11Z")
Assad visited Moscow to ask for additional support quite recently and came back empty handed. ---
**Author:** ![Roderick\_Femm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/roderick_femm/32/14875_2.png) [@Roderick\_Femm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Roderick_Femm)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2024, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/12 "2024-12-07T20:23:17Z")
I’ve started a thread in P&E to discuss geo-political implications for the region, if anyone is interested. > [@Regional geo-political implications of fall of Al-Ashad regime in Syria to rebel forces](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/regional-geo-political-implications-of-fall-of-al-ashad-regime-in-syria-to-rebel-forces/1011318): > > What groups constitute the rebels? What kind of regime is it likely to be – extreme Islamist, moderate Islamist, chaotic, well-ordered? Assuming a coherent new regime, what is its attitude towards Israel likely to be? All I have is questions. Maybe we can have a discussion. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2024, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/13 "2024-12-07T22:16:22Z")
Rebels are claiming to have control over Homs, which leaves the regime pretty much penned into Damascus. > Google translation: Ahmed Al-Dalati, leader of the Military Operations Department: - All axes surrounding the city of Homs are controlled by the revolutionary forces - Regime forces withdrew from Homs We clashed with Hezbollah fighters stationed in military sites in Homs - The cities of Daraa, Suwayda, and Quneitra are completely liberated - The regime is besieged in a narrow area inside the city of Damascus I’ve also seen video of people celebrating in the central square in Homs. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2024, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/14 "2024-12-08T01:42:35Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > All axes surrounding the city of Homs are controlled by the revolutionary forces Is that the plural of “axe”, or the plural of “axis”? Either one seems like it can sort of but not completely make sense. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2024, 3:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/15 "2024-12-08T03:17:46Z")
The rebels have [apparently](https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/07/middleeast/syria-rebels-homs-damascus-assad-intl/index.html) entered Damascus. > [Syrian](https://cnn.com/2024/12/06/middleeast/syria-rebel-forces-hayat-tahrir-al-sham-al-jolani-intl-latam/index.html) rebels appear to have entered the capital Damascus after facing scant resistance from regime forces, as President Bashar al-Assad’s decades-long grip on power seemed to wane by the minute. > > “The rebels are in Barzeh,” a neighborhood inside Damascus city, one resident told CNN, adding that clashes were currently taking place. > > By early Sunday morning, a source familiar with the rebel’s advance told CNN: “Militarily, Damascus has fallen.” ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2024, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/16 "2024-12-08T03:21:59Z")
Per Reuters: > [@](#): > > Syrian President Bashar al-Assad flew out of Damascus for an unknown destination on Sunday, two senior army officers told Reuters, as rebels said they had entered the capital with no sign of army deployments. [https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syria-rebels-celebrate-captured-homs-set-sights-damascus-2024-12-07/](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syria-rebels-celebrate-captured-homs-set-sights-damascus-2024-12-07/) ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2024, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/17 "2024-12-08T03:24:20Z")
He’s lucky he didn’t get the Gaddafi treatment. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2024, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/18 "2024-12-08T03:24:45Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > I am not sure there is a better future for the Syrians any time soon but good riddance to Bashar al-Assad. He completely ruined his country. The problem is that history has shown that when a brutal secular dictator is deposed in the Middle East, the regime that ends up replacing him is usually an even more brutal theocratic dictatorship. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2024, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/19 "2024-12-08T03:34:21Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > He’s lucky he didn’t get the Gaddafi treatment Might not have fared much better… [![Imgur](https://i.imgur.com/Lit7Iin.png "imgur.com") ](https://imgur.com/Lit7Iin) [![Imgur](https://i.imgur.com/603P3xB.png "imgur.com") ](https://imgur.com/603P3xB) Grain of salt and all that. But OSINTdefender is a generally reliable account that regularly calls out bullshit. They don’t fabricate things from whole cloth (at the same time, there are limits to “Open Source Intel”). ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2024, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/20 "2024-12-08T03:47:07Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > The problem is that history has shown that when a brutal secular dictator is deposed in the Middle East, the regime that ends up replacing him is usually an even more brutal theocratic dictatorship. Maybe, but it is in the [Syrian constitution](https://www.refworld.org/legal/legislation/natlegbod/2012/en/90331) that the President cannot be secular: > [@](#): > > The religion of the President of the Republic is Islam; Islamic jurisprudence shall be a major source of legislation; The State shall respect all religions, and ensure the freedom to perform all the rituals that do not prejudice public order The Syrian Civil War is super-complicated and being fought between at least four sides. I guess it’s difficult to pay any attention without making hypotheses where the major players are put into categories that are familiar to us. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314.md?page=2)