# The collapse of Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria? **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [December 7, 2024, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314 "2024-12-07T18:51:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2024, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/61 "2024-12-08T18:11:40Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > Just a nitpick - Tartus had been a Soviet facility since 1971 Thank you. Appreciate the correction. ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2024, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/62 "2024-12-08T18:16:59Z")
> [@PatrickLondon](#): > > > [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > > > his “unknown destination” may have been the same place as Gaddafi. > > Does it have windows? No, where Gaddafi is there are only Apple devices. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2024, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/63 "2024-12-08T18:33:19Z")
From the AP, quoting Russian news agencies: > [@](#): > > Russian state news agencies are reporting that ousted Syrian President Bashar Assad has arrived in Moscow with his family and given asylum. > > The agencies, Tass and RIA, cited an unidentified Kremlin source. The Associated Press was not immediately able to verify the reports but has contacted the Kremlin for comment. > > RIA also cited an anonymous Kremlin source that Moscow had received guarantees from Syrian insurgents of the security of Russian military bases and diplomatic posts in Syria. The report did not give further details. > **[Russian state news agencies say ousted Syrian leader Bashar Assad is in...](https://apnews.com/article/syria-assad-sweida-daraa-homs-hts-qatar-816e538565d1ae47e016b5765b044d31)** > > The Syrian government collapsed to a lightning rebel offensive that sent crowds into the streets to celebrate the end of the Assad family's 50 years of iron rule. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2024, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/64 "2024-12-08T19:45:09Z")
This NPR article is a good retrospective on the Assad rule in Syria. > **[In Syria, the Assads leave a bitter legacy after a half-century of repressive...](https://www.npr.org/2024/12/08/g-s1-37298/in-syria-the-assads-leave-a-bitter-legacy-after-a-half-century-of-repressive-rule)** > > President Bashar Assad and his father, Hafez Assad, combined to rule Syria for more than 50 years, always with an iron fist that crushed dissent and relied on the country's feared security forces. ---
**Author:** ![robby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robby/32/11048_2.png) [@robby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/robby)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2024, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/65 "2024-12-08T20:06:51Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > From the AP, quoting Russian news agencies: > > > [@](#): > > > > Russian state news agencies are reporting that ousted Syrian President Bashar Assad has arrived in Moscow with his family and given asylum. > > > > [Russian state news agencies say ousted Syrian leader Bashar Assad is in Moscow and given asylum](https://apnews.com/article/syria-assad-sweida-daraa-homs-hts-qatar-816e538565d1ae47e016b5765b044d31) Now that Assad has apparently retired from the family business of running a brutal dictatorship, maybe he can return to his original career plans and open up an ophthalmologist practice now. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2024, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/66 "2024-12-09T00:07:02Z")
It only took ten years. I vaugely remember the revolts that erupted into civil war. The similarities with the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in Libya are striking. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2024, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/67 "2024-12-09T00:09:46Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > It only took ten years. Thirteen years, in fact, since the civil war started in 2011. OTOH, it only took two weeks, once it became clear that Assad’s patrons were no longer willing or able to bail him out any further. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2024, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/68 "2024-12-09T01:07:07Z")
The analysis of what lead to Assad’s end is quite interesting. Link [Hezbollah’s war with Israel left the Assad regime fatally exposed | Syria | The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/08/hezbollah-war-with-israel-left-the-assad-regime-syria-fatally-exposed) > [@](#): > > A country that suffered under a Ba’athist regime for 60 years, as well as 14 years of civil war, is celebrating hard-won freedoms as thousands of disappeared people pour out of Assad’s infamous prisons. What comes next in [Syria](https://www.theguardian.com/world/syria), which still has to grapple with deep internal and sectarian problems, is uncertain. **In Iran, though, the picture is clearer: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei can no longer deny that Tehran’s political and military “axis of resistance” has collapsed.** > > Hezbollah, the Shia Lebanese movement long backed by Iran in their shared fight against Israel, miscalculated in coming to Hamas’s aid in the war in Gaza by opening a front on the UN-demarcated blue line that separates the Lebanese from their Israeli neighbours. > > After almost a year of tit-for-tat cross-border attacks that displaced hundreds of thousands of people from their homes, [Israel](https://www.theguardian.com/world/israel) stepped up its campaign in September. It managed to wipe out much of Hezbollah’s command structure in airstrikes, including its longtime secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, and drove the group’s fighters away from the demarcation zone in a ground offensive. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2024, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/69 "2024-12-09T01:27:17Z")
Acey’s Guardian article, and this one from Al Jazeera, give the answer to Gorsnak’s OP: the MSM weren’t following it before a couple of weeks ago, because it all happened in the past two weeks. The MSM, like pretty much everyone else, was caught by surprise. > [@](#): > > The stunning collapse of more than 53 years of al-Assad family rule has been described as a historic moment – nearly 14 years after Syrians rose in peaceful protests against a government that met them with violence that quickly spiralled into a bloody civil war. > > Just a week ago, the regime still maintained control over significant portions of the country. So how did it all unravel so quickly? > **[What happened in Syria? How did al-Assad fall?](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/8/what-happened-in-syria-has-al-assad-really-fallen)** > > Opposition forces have taken control of the capital after a significant offensive. Here is how it unravelled. ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2024, 6:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/70 "2024-12-09T06:32:09Z")
> [@Johanna](#): > > Predictions: > > - HTS will form a moderate Islamist government, comparable to that of al-Ikhwan in Egypt under Morsi. Not the most encouraging precedent ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2024, 7:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/71 "2024-12-09T07:48:35Z")
An amusing detail that I saw pointed out on Discord. One of the victorious rebel factions, the [Southern Operations Room](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_Operations_Room) uses as [its symbol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Southern_Operations_Room.png) an image that’s almost a [direct rip-off](https://static.wikia.nocookie.net/cnc_gamepedia_en/images/4/4c/Gen2_GLA_logo_summit.png/revision/latest?cb=20180801164518) of an icon for the [Global Liberation Army](https://cnc.fandom.com/wiki/Global_Liberation_Army) (the second one they used, half down the page) from the Command and Conquer games. It’s just so weirdly random. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2024, 8:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/72 "2024-12-09T08:00:26Z")
The game: [![Imgur](https://i.imgur.com/QV6Pnf8.png "imgur.com") ](https://imgur.com/QV6Pnf8) The Southern Operations Room: [![Imgur](https://i.imgur.com/Vn767Vi.png "imgur.com") ](https://imgur.com/Vn767Vi) Are we sure they aren’t both rip-offs of some previous logo? ---
**Author:** ![romansperson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/romansperson/32/17100_2.png) [@romansperson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/romansperson)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2024, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/73 "2024-12-10T02:16:15Z")
According to [this release](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-9-2024) from The Institute for the Study of War: > **HTS is likely attempting to improve its image among the Syrian people and international community by framing itself as an organization that is devoted to building a pluralist Syrian state.** HTS announced on December 9 that it is “strictly forbidden” to interfere in women’s choice of clothing or to demand that women dress modestly.[12] HTS emphasized that “respect[ing] the rights of individuals is the basis for building a civilized nation.”[13] HTS separately announced on December 9 that it is “strictly forbidden” to attack or threaten journalists and reporters.[14] It is unclear whether HTS will indefinitely protect the rights of women and journalists. HTS’s “morality police,” called Markaz al Falah, has previously arrested women for dressing “inappropriately.”[15] HTS has also imprisoned journalists who criticized its rule in northwestern Syria.[16] It will be interesting to see which way this goes. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2024, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/74 "2024-12-10T02:42:41Z")
Well, at worst, they’re at least willing to pay lip service to freedom. That’s already better than some Middle Eastern regimes. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2024, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/75 "2024-12-10T03:45:57Z")
And much better than either Assad ever was. I doubt this guy will use chemical weapons on his own population either. Or hook men’s testicles up to car batteries during questioning. Or engage in sexual torture of children. Or drop barrel bombs on residential areas (oil drums filled with shrapnel and explosives) that caused widespread death and destruction of infrastructure and buildings. I could go on but there are few regimes that have engaged in so many horrific crimes against their own population than the regimes of Hafez and Basher Assad. They were monsters. Whatever comes next will likely be better, no matter how Islamist or authoritarian. Just for that reason alone I feel the Syrian people have come out winners in this situation. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2024, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/76 "2024-12-10T19:27:14Z")
I understand the concern these weapons and bases could fall into terrorists hands. But, the new leaders of Syria need the support of an organized military. Holding people accountable for war crimes will take years. HTS should want to avoid the chaos of multiple factions consolidating power and having no one in charge. It’s going to get messy for awhile. Regime change is difficult. > **[Syria: Israel confirms attack on naval fleetin Latakia](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqx808q7lrno)** > > The BBC has verified videos showing blasts in the Syrian port of Latakia, as Israel conducts strikes across Syria. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2024, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/77 "2024-12-11T02:06:01Z")
isn’t messy par-for-the-course, there? IOW: when was the last time it was not messy in Syria? ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2024, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/78 "2024-12-11T03:28:30Z")
I suspect that phase 2 of all of this is that HTS and Turkey join forces to invade Eastern Syria. Israel, taking out all the military equipment of Assad’s forces, helps to diminish the strength that HTS can bring to that battle. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [December 24, 2024, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/79 "2024-12-24T02:41:37Z")
There are reports (unconfirmed and/or denied) that Assad’s British-born wife wants to divorce him and move to Britain. She is under British sanctions and the British Foreign Secretary has stated in Parliament that she is not welcome in Britain. > **[Kremlin denies reports Asma al-Assad is seeking divorce and a return to London](https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/23/kremlin-denies-reports-asma-al-assad-seeking-divorce-return-london)** > > UK-born wife of ousted Syrian leader is a divisive figure around world and, like her husband, is under sanctions ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [December 24, 2024, 8:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314/80 "2024-12-24T08:13:10Z")
I don’t see the UK government being keen on admitting her. There is a precedent which would inevitably be called into play: > **[Shamima Begum](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shamima_Begum)** > > Shamima Begum (born 25 August 1999) is a British-born woman who entered Syria to join the Islamic State at the age of 15 in 2015. As of 2024, she is living in al-Roj detention camp in Syria. > While enrolled at Bethnal Green Academy, Begum and two schoolmates travelled to Syria in February 2015. The journey was facilitated by an IS smuggler who was providing information to Canadian intelligence. Ten days after her arrival, Begum married a 23-year-old fellow IS member; the marriage produced thre... [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-collapse-of-bashar-al-assad-regime-in-syria/1011314.md?page=5)