Given the speculation about his flight, his “unknown destination” may have been the same place as Gaddafi.
Now they are. Before yesterday they were not, but the collapse started a week ago.
Does it have windows?
The less flippant question is - will the new government continue to allow Russia its naval bases?
With so much else going on, I’m embarrassed to admit that I haven’t been following the situation in Syria for years. Something about Kurds, something about Turkey. Then Trump ceded influence over Syria to Russia, and Russia was backing Assad. So can someone explain to me in bullet points what’s going on? On this issue, I feel as if I’ve been living in a cave.
Russia tried to kill al-Julani as recently as last week so there doesn’t appear to be any agreement between them.
Russia has been bombing the fuck out of the rebels for years. I’m certain the rebels despise Russia as much as they do the regime.
A capsule summary, as I understand it:
- Protests in 2011 led to a civil war, which had become a thirteen-year-long stalemate, leading to many dead and many refugees fleeing the country
- There are a number of different rebel groups, including ones back by Turkey and by the U.S. (the U.S.-backed group is primarily Kurdish, AIUI), though one of the major ones, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), was formerly an arm of al-Qaida
- Assad had managed to stay in power because he was backed by Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah; with all of those powers now busy and distracted by other conflicts, the rebels began a new offensive two weeks ago, and Assad’s allies decided to leave him to his own devices
That’s basically it. There’s hasn’t been much movement in the last few years (until now).
Assad was ramping up drug production during the peaceful times and angering most of the other Islamic countries of the region. Iran had various bases that they stationed troops at, in their attacks on Israel, located near Damascus. That’s the only news I saw come out during the last few years.
Current indications are that the group that lead the takeover (probably) did so under the blessing of Turkey or in an attempt to gain favor from Turkey. They’re taking a very peaceful, “We’re all brothers”, approach to all people and religions… except the Kurds. They took time off from the revolution just to attack Kurdish fortresses for no reason.
My guess would be that they’ll continue on with that attack, while Erdogan denies responsibility. The US and Israel will need to decide whether to support the Kurds and try to create an enclave somewhere in Syria (or Gaza?), or just let a genocide transpire and still accept Erdogan in NATO, despite his likely involvement.
You’re imagining medieval warfare with battleaxes? Barûk Khazad! Khazad ai-menu!
No.
I’ve not been following it closely, but here’s my take:
- Assad faced a civil war / opposition from about 2010 onwards.
- At one point in the early 20-teens, it looked like his opponents might gain real military traction.
- Obama said that the use of chemical weapons by the Assad government would be a “red line” for the US.
- The Assad government used chemical weapons.
- The US did nothing.
- Obama around this time referred to Russia as a “regional power”, which Putin, self-proclaimed successor to the tsars and the Russian Empire, did not like.
- In 2015, Putin, fresh from capturing Ukraine, provided massive military aid to Syria in defeating the insurgents.
- After Assad defeated the insurgents, he rewarded Russia with two military bases: Khmeimim Air Base and Tartus naval base.
- That gave Russia its only warm-water port, and a power base in the eastern Med, to rebut the suggestion that they were only a regional power; Russia could use those bases for further influence in the Med, including Libya.
- Russia, Turkey and Iran all have complicated interests in the area, and formed a three-nation council to coordinate on Syria issues. However, it is a loose organization.
- Russia’s military resources have been tied up / degraded by the Ukraine war; Iran / Hezbollah’s military resources ditto with the Israel-Gaza War.
- Turkey / Erdogan recently began supplying more resources to the Syrian insurgents, to counterbalance Kurdish interests, which Turkey sees as an existentialist threat to their territorial integrity.
- And then things went to hell.
That’s the best I’ve got. Open to correction from more informed posters.
Thank you for the answers.
missed the edit window; that should have been “fresh from capturing Crimea”. Sorry.
Article summarising Russia’s role and strategic goals in Syria, which are now in jeopardy.
Ukraine’s military intelligence agency has reported that Russia has withdrawn some assets from the two bases. Of course, that is the Ukraine government’s take on it, so probably best to look for confirmation from other sources.
Predictions:
- HTS will form a moderate Islamist government, comparable to that of al-Ikhwan in Egypt under Morsi.
- First thing they do is kick out the Russians.
- They will politely ask the US to leave al-Tanf base: “We’re not looking for a fight, we just want to reunify our country.”
- They will extend an olive branch to all Arab Syrians, but not the Kurds.
- Despite a ban on official reprisals against the Alawites, Sunni citizens with 50 years of built up resentment will carry out reprisals against the Alawites while the new government looks the other way. There will be an outflow of Alawite refugees.
- They are cutting off Syrian support for Hezbollah, which will cause the latter to wither on the vine.
The Russians were heavily involved in the bombing and destruction of Aleppo, so I would agree that the insurgents will see Russia as part of the Assad regime.
Well, not literally, but I thought it might be a metonymous term of art for something military-related. Like, maybe it was an old elision for “axeman”, and came to mean soldiers in general, whatever weapons they were wielding. Like I said, it would sort of but not quite make sense.
Just a nitpick - Tartus had been a Soviet facility since 1971 and was Russian thereafter. Russian involvement was to some extent predicated on that - Syria was a useful client state since long before the civil war started.
Well, maybe Turkey got him. Could have been a lot of people.