# The Crimson Glyph (Werewolf/Mafia/Psychopath) **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [April 24, 2009, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271 "2009-04-24T22:16:54Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 40
**Author:** ![special\_ed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5ac83/32.png) [@special\_ed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/special_ed)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2009, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/781 "2009-05-07T01:36:16Z")
NETA, not waste their lynch, but waste their NightKill. > [@special\_ed](#): > > I’m not terribly thick, no, but thanks for asking. > > So, why are we doing the Blackhearts work for them? > > We can’t worry about the NK. It’s going to happen anyway. We need to make our lynch effectively and make it in Town’s best interest. On what planet does it make sense to lynch a player that the Scum will want dead? > > You want to make the choice harder for the Blackhearts by taking away their obvious choice? Why not make them waste their lynch on Paul? I don’t get it. They aren’t going to accidentally kill one of their own. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2009, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/782 "2009-05-07T01:40:44Z")
Paul, Who are you voting for? ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2009, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/783 "2009-05-07T02:04:26Z")
All of this talk about Paul had me think about the following: The Monty Hall problem is a probability puzzle based on the American television game show Let’s Make a Deal. The name comes from the show host, Monty Hall. The problem is also called the Monty Hall paradox, as it is a veridical paradox in that the result appears absurd but is demonstrated to be true. [1] A well-known statement of the problem was published in Parade magazine: ``` Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice? (Schrock 1990) ``` Because there is no way for the player to know which of the two remaining unopened doors is the winning door, most people assume that each of these doors has an equal probability and conclude that switching does not matter. In fact, the player should switch—doing so doubles the probability of winning the car from 1/3 to 2/3. From: > **[Monty Hall problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_Problem)** > > The Monty Hall problem is a brain teaser, in the form of a probability puzzle, loosely based on the American television game show Let's Make a Deal and named after its original host, Monty Hall. The problem was originally posed (and solved) in a letter by Steve Selvin to the American Statistician in 1975. It became famous as a question from reader Craig F. Whitaker's letter quoted in Marilyn vos Savant's "Ask Marilyn" column in Parade magazine in 1990: > Suppose you're on a game show, and you'r... What situation do we have here? Do We have a TRUE monty hall problem here? Who is on what side? What is the translation? Can we never know for sure, if we even have a Monty Hall Problem here, given that we can not independently verify What Paul has pasted? ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2009, 2:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/784 "2009-05-07T02:07:26Z")
I once thought the game was constipated. Looks like this Mafia game went to the All you can eat night at Taco Bell. Diarrhea city. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2009, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/785 "2009-05-07T02:09:34Z")
Quoth **Meeko** : > [@](#): > > I still believe that the drawback to O was that Blackhearts learned information that helped increased the odds of a Blackhear NK on a Town Power Role. > > That is all I mean. > > We STILL do not know the drawback to O. It makes sense to me, to at least consider the drawback of O in the same breath as considering “luck” per the Telcontar NK. We’ve known the drawback of O ever since **pedescribe** told us the rules: An ostracized player can still take an action that Night. What makes you think there’s some other drawback to it? And further, even if there were some other drawback to it, so what? It’s the only kind of lynch we’ve got, now, and if we don’t use it, then we’re just conceding the game. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2009, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/786 "2009-05-07T02:10:03Z")
I have to say, you ask Meeko to join a Mafia game, and the man delivers! I told you this game was for you, Meeko! ---
**Author:** ![paulwhoisaghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e5b9ba/32.png) [@paulwhoisaghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/paulwhoisaghost)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2009, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/787 "2009-05-07T02:10:12Z")
Wow Meeko… just… wow… MY VOTE IS BOUGHT I CANNOT VOTE ---
**Author:** ![paulwhoisaghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e5b9ba/32.png) [@paulwhoisaghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/paulwhoisaghost)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2009, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/788 "2009-05-07T02:15:10Z")
What Meeko delivered Mahaloth? He has been wrong every step of the way… and is now advocating the lynch of a town power role. I mean… he even said to assume I am telling the truth, he would still lynch me. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2009, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/789 "2009-05-07T02:15:30Z")
> [@paulwhoisaghost](#): > > Wow Meeko… just… wow… > MY VOTE IS BOUGHT I CANNOT VOTE That must have slipped my mind. Noob Mistake, not taking down notes. I’m not going to worry about confirming that claim. Let me simply restate: Paul, If I Unvoted you, who would you suggest I vote for instead? ---
**Author:** ![special\_ed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5ac83/32.png) [@special\_ed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/special_ed)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2009, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/790 "2009-05-07T02:16:15Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > I have to say, you ask Meeko to join a Mafia game, and the man delivers! > > I told you this game was for you, Meeko! He certainly thinks outside the box. In fact, I’m not sure if he could actually find the box if pressed 🙂 But it’s actually fun trying to understand what he’s saying. Like this Monty Hall thing. It sort of assumes that someone knows the right answers and is guiding us…but..um…well, Um, I’m not sure how it applies to the current situation, and I’m hopeful he’ll be able to explain his thinking, but I’m afraid he’s already moved off on some other tangent. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2009, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/791 "2009-05-07T02:17:11Z")
> [@paulwhoisaghost](#): > > Wow Meeko… just… wow… > MY VOTE IS BOUGHT I CANNOT VOTE Dude, I think he just forgot. Not that big of a deal. ---
**Author:** ![paulwhoisaghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e5b9ba/32.png) [@paulwhoisaghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/paulwhoisaghost)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2009, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/792 "2009-05-07T02:20:01Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > I walk away for a few hours and everything goes berserk? Yeesh! > > I’ve read and re-read everything since around 5 pm, when I left and I am understanding the following. Please tell me where I’m wrong. > > 1. Ped revealed his alleged role PM, which should reveal why he was doing a PM to Ped last Night(when he commented on the full inbox). > > 2. If he’s telling the truth, he’s basically a Watcher/Killer, where he had to choose one of those actions. He could watch someone at the Night and Kill someone in the Day. He could also swap people’s targets or something. > > 3. It does not sound like he had to choose one or the other role per Day/Night? > > 4. Two of his powers infect with the Seed of Sin…which is rather weird. > > 5. He had a minor flip-out over everyone’s misunderstanding…which was fun to read. > > It seems weird that he could sinfect someone with two of his powers(killing and swapping). I almost have a hard time believing this part of his role…but I do for some reason. > > I’m not ready to vote for him, because I kind of half believe his claim and don’t want to kill another townie. I mean, he’s dangerous in some way, but not as bad as some people are making him out to be. > > Anyone who voted for him want to explain to me(and the other townies) the advantage of taking out paul? Is it the sinfection possibilities? Is it that you don’t believe the claim itself? Is it that he can kill during the Day? Is it that you don’t like him personally? You didn’t read my role very well did you… I have one power that sinfects someone… the swapping power moves the sinfection from one person to another… and the kill power (which I can’t use until half the players are sinfected btw) sinfects myself. The only other power I have is to REMOVE sinfection from someone… or did you over look that? The fact that I can help prevent the Sinner’s from winning… Note that the sinner’s cant NK me… so they are likely to push for my lynch more than scum would. ---
**Author:** ![paulwhoisaghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e5b9ba/32.png) [@paulwhoisaghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/paulwhoisaghost)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2009, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/793 "2009-05-07T02:25:13Z")
> [@Meeko](#): > > That must have slipped my mind. > > Noob Mistake, not taking down notes. > > I’m not going to worry about confirming that claim. Let me simply restate: > > Paul, If I Unvoted you, who would you suggest I vote for instead? You… I would suggest you vote for you… no one is pinging me harder than you… I doubt that will happen though… so whatever… I guess second would be Inner Stickler. But it seems he and I are doomed to disagree with each other in every mafia game we play together. Then again… I think the scum are sitting back and enjoying this whole mess while the sinners are pushing my lynch and town are following suit. So I doubt you are scum… and I dunno if I want to waste a town lynch on sinners… I guess if it were a choice between a known town and a suspected sinner… I would choose the sinner… So yeah… I would have you vote for yourself or IS. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2009, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/794 "2009-05-07T02:25:50Z")
> [@paulwhoisaghost](#): > > What Meeko delivered Mahaloth? He has been wrong every step of the way… and is now advocating the lynch of a town power role. I mean… he even said to assume I am telling the truth, he would still lynch me. I didn’t start this fire, I believe Chronos did. We could lynch someone more Town than Paul. The fear of doing that is what drives me currently. I think at this point, given the chance, I think Blackhearts will NK you Paul. I don’t think anyone will disagree here. Other people can debate on if you are telling the truth or not. All I know is that you are disenfranchised with the game as it is currently, and I’m not sure we can allow you to keep playing as you have been. Can you assure me you won’t slip up again? I am not sure that is possible. If Not Paul. Then Who to lynch? Why? ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2009, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/795 "2009-05-07T02:28:32Z")
> [@paulwhoisaghost](#): > > So yeah… I would have you vote for yourself or IS. I will get back to this. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2009, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/796 "2009-05-07T02:34:11Z")
Well, Meeko, it’s either lynch Paul or lynch a lurker. Yes, I know. Everyone who has read my posts is probably tired of hearing about that. I still think Nanook or Captain Pinkies could very well be choosing to slide along unnoticed. For now, and I mean this, I have to agree that lynching paul makes sense. However, Nanook? Captain? Please check in before…Friday at noon? Seriously. What’s up with you guys? Sigh. **vote paulwhoisaghost** ---
**Author:** ![paulwhoisaghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e5b9ba/32.png) [@paulwhoisaghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/paulwhoisaghost)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2009, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/797 "2009-05-07T02:37:53Z")
> [@Meeko](#): > > I didn’t start this fire, I believe Chronos did. > > We could lynch someone more Town than Paul. The fear of doing that is what drives me currently. > > I think at this point, given the chance, I think Blackhearts will NK you Paul. I don’t think anyone will disagree here. > > Other people can debate on if you are telling the truth or not. All I know is that you are disenfranchised with the game as it is currently, and I’m not sure we can allow you to keep playing as you have been. > > Can you assure me you won’t slip up again? I am not sure that is possible. > > If Not Paul. Then Who to lynch? Why? Are you frickin kidding me Meeko… if you are so sure that the scum are going to NK me, then leave me for them to off and force them to WiFoM if I am going to be protected or not. That way there is a chance of not having them get a kill in. If you lynch me, then the scum just have to pick someone and kill… you think they really care who it is? Yeah they want to hit power roles, but in the end anyone they hit is a step closer to their wincon. And how did I slip? I watched someone hoping to gain info for town. It came at a cost… but it was a cost I knew I could remove. So I didn’t “slip” at all. And you keep saying I am disenfranchised. WTF does that mean? I am still town and still want town to win… so I’m not sure wtf you are saying… ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2009, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/798 "2009-05-07T02:38:21Z")
> [@paulwhoisaghost](#): > > So yeah… I would have you vote for yourself or IS. **Un vote Paul.** And yes Mahaloth, I am enjoying this game. I am just not sure if anyone else enjoys it in the same way I do. No offense to Ped, but I will need to try a _regular_ Mafia game after this. I think I will enjoy it the same, or more, but I am dying to have another go at Mafia, with a better start that the one here. \*\* But, I am not going to vote for myself.\*\* Afterall, we no longer have O on the table. I might be crazy, but I am NOT insane. -For Insane Meeko, watch me play Haggle. Mahaloth, am I right, or am I right? ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2009, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/799 "2009-05-07T02:40:01Z")
NETA : **Paul and I just simulposted, for those of you playing at home.** ---
**Author:** ![special\_ed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5ac83/32.png) [@special\_ed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/special_ed)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2009, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/800 "2009-05-07T02:40:27Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > Well, Meeko, it’s either lynch Paul or lynch a lurker. > > Yes, I know. Everyone who has read my posts is probably tired of hearing about that. I still think Nanook or Captain Pinkies could very well be choosing to slide along unnoticed. > > For now, and I mean this, I have to agree that lynching paul makes sense. > > However, Nanook? Captain? Please check in before…Friday at noon? Seriously. What’s up with you guys? > > Sigh. > > **vote paulwhoisaghost** Why is everyone conceding that we must lynch **paul**? It bothers me. As it stands, I suspect that the sinners will be the ones who want \*\*paul \*\*dead the most. I’m very suspicious of his current voters. Now, obviously they aren’t all Sinners or Sinner aligned impure Town (we could have one). Also, Sinners would have the least incentive to actually go scum hunting and would recommend just lynching \*\*paul \*\*because there are no other targets. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271.md?page=39) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271.md?page=41)