# The Crimson Glyph (Werewolf/Mafia/Psychopath)

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271>\
**Category:** The Game Room\
**Created:** [April 24, 2009, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271 "2009-04-24T22:16:54Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 90

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**Author:** ![AllWalker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/db5fbb/32.png) [@AllWalker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AllWalker)\
**Post date:** [May 23, 2009, 6:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1781 "2009-05-23T06:23:01Z")

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> [@Meeko](#):
>
> Should the town look at Sinners still, or should we look to Blackhearts?
> 
> Im not sure how we could, but we should all agree on how we need to look at things, as the game continues.

Well, how many Sinners do we think there still are?

If we assume that there were two who had, dare I say, Original Sin, then there is only one Original Sinner left and its recruits. If there was one sinfection per Night, that gives a maximum of 3 recruits (3, right? This is Day 4?). Add one for **paul 1** ’s tracking power causing sinfection, and that gives a total maximum of 5 Sinners.

Every day we have had Sinners claim, and in some cases those people died. Based on the assumption that a Town who embraced Sin would keep it to themselves, there would be only a couple of Sinners.

WAG on my part, but the real number isn’t that far off. Add to this the fact that Sinners need to achiee 100% sinfection, whereas Blackhearts need to control the majority, I’d say the Sinners are far less of a threat.

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**Author:** ![AllWalker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/db5fbb/32.png) [@AllWalker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AllWalker)\
**Post date:** [May 23, 2009, 6:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1782 "2009-05-23T06:30:42Z")

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**Chronos** , that sure is an interesting approach. It would be strange behaviour on part of the Scum, but then again this game is so complex and full of unknowns that they might of considered it.

Does your analysis factor in people who claim their vote was bought? A BH might vote for a BH against their will, even following this strategy.

The interesting thing about it is that it comes with its own built-in error estimation method. Assuming **Chronos** is not BH, so taking the second analysis, that gives me a 7/25= 28% chance of being BH. Now, I know I am not BH (:)) so that number seems reasonable. But if there is a swing in the numbers of about 1/4 then a 2/3 probability could be as low as 5/12 chance. Which is still fantastically high.

Let me think on it a little.

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**Author:** ![paulwhoisaghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e5b9ba/32.png) [@paulwhoisaghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/paulwhoisaghost)\
**Post date:** [May 23, 2009, 8:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1783 "2009-05-23T08:33:23Z")

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> [@Chronos](#):
>
> Vote count?
> 
> **Meeko** , I still can’t see how you, of all people, have anything to hide at this point. We all know what your role is, so you’re not hiding that. We all know exactly what special information your role would have given you, so it’s not that, either. Anything you know at this point, you know from just reading the thread, and everyone can do that. Anything logical you could deduce from the thread, everyone else (including Scum) could deduce, too, and Scum would have had an easier time deducing anything than you would have, since they have more information than you do.
> 
> But I think I’ve given up on trying to explain. I guess I’ll just have to wait until after the game, or whenever you decide to explain your reasoning.
> 
> Meanwhile, a crazy hypothesis: Suppose that, in this game, no Blackheart has voted for another Blackheart. Ordinarily, this would be a bad idea for them, but I think it might be reasonable in this game: First of all, enough Townies have done or said scummy things to give Blackhearts plenty of excuses to vote for Townies. Second, with two scum factions in the game, Blackhearts can point to votes for Sinners to gain town cred, with no need to actually damage their own team.
> 
> OK, so if we grant this hypothesis for the sake of discussion, where does it lead? There are currently 10 live players of unknown alignment, and based on game balance issues, I suspect that there are 4 Blackhearts among those 10. If we eliminate all scenarios where a Blackheart has voted for another Blackheart, then we’re left with 46 possible arrangements. Of those 46:  
> **Mahaloth** is a Blackheart in 29 of them  
> **Chronos** is a Blackheart in 21  
> **paul3** is a Blackheart in 22  
> **Joey P** is a Blackheart in 13  
> **Thing Fish** is a Blackheart in 18  
> **Rysto** is a Blackheart in 20  
> **AllWalker** is a Blackheart in 16  
> **peeker** is a Blackheart in 2  
> **Stickler** is a Blackheart in 29  
> **Bear\_Nenno** is a Blackheart in 14
> 
> If I further assume (as I know to be true, but I can’t blame any of you for not trusting this) that I, **Chronos** , am not a Blackheart, then there are only 25 possible arrangements. Of those, we have  
> **Mahaloth** in 17  
> **paul3** in 13  
> **Joey** in 8  
> **Thing Fish** in 10  
> **Rysto** in 12  
> **AllWalker** in 7  
> **peeker** in 2  
> **Stickler** in 17  
> **Bear\_Nenno** in 14
> 
> Based on this, I would conclude that **Mahaloth** and **Inner Stickler** each have more than a 2 in 3 chance of being Blackguards, while **peeker** has only an 8% chance.
> 
> Now, granted, this does rest on some possibly shaky assumptions, but it still looks pretty bad for those two (certainly enough to make me suspicious).

While I appreciate the effort that you must have put into the logic and calculations to figure this out… It’s all useless… Here is the problem. You are trying to assign a probability of scumminess to a person. The issue is, you are saying that Mahaloth has a 2 in 3 chance of being a blackheart… when is actuality he either is or he isn’t there isn’t a 1 out of 3 times that he’ll turn up town… it’s not the same as odds of a number being rolled on dice… or that certain cards will be flipped… the outcome was determined long before you started figuring the odds.

It’s like taking a 6 foot man and asking people on the street how tall he is. When they say he is 5’10" are you gonna tell them there is a 2 in 3 chance that they are right? No… he either is or is not the heighth they guessed. Just like Mahaloth either is or is not blackheart. There are no odds to be figured.

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**Author:** ![AllWalker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/db5fbb/32.png) [@AllWalker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AllWalker)\
**Post date:** [May 23, 2009, 11:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1784 "2009-05-23T11:34:50Z")

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> [@paulwhoisaghost](#):
>
> While I appreciate the effort that you must have put into the logic and calculations to figure this out… It’s all useless… Here is the problem. You are trying to assign a probability of scumminess to a person. The issue is, you are saying that Mahaloth has a 2 in 3 chance of being a blackheart… when is actuality he either is or he isn’t there isn’t a 1 out of 3 times that he’ll turn up town… it’s not the same as odds of a number being rolled on dice… or that certain cards will be flipped… the outcome was determined long before you started figuring the odds.
> 
> It’s like taking a 6 foot man and asking people on the street how tall he is. When they say he is 5’10" are you gonna tell them there is a 2 in 3 chance that they are right? No… he either is or is not the heighth they guessed. Just like Mahaloth either is or is not blackheart. There are no odds to be figured.

But the conditions of the post set it up as a question of probability. Assuming there is no mutual scum voting, and assuming everyone has equal chances of being BH, then there is a certain subset of outcomes where a player votes in a scummy behaviour, a subset of total outcomes. Probability.

Another way of looking at it: I flip a coin right now and ask you what it comes up as. It is right now either heads or tails - but due to the constraint of information, you can only guess, with a 50/50 probability of being right. The fact that it is 100% tails does not change the probability.

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**Author:** ![peekercpa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8baadc/32.png) [@peekercpa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peekercpa)\
**Post date:** [May 23, 2009, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1785 "2009-05-23T13:26:40Z")

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> [@paulwhoisaghost](#):
>
> While I appreciate the effort that you must have put into the logic and calculations to figure this out… It’s all useless… Here is the problem. You are trying to assign a probability of scumminess to a person. The issue is, you are saying that Mahaloth has a 2 in 3 chance of being a blackheart… when is actuality he either is or he isn’t there isn’t a 1 out of 3 times that he’ll turn up town… it’s not the same as odds of a number being rolled on dice… or that certain cards will be flipped… the outcome was determined long before you started figuring the odds.
> 
> It’s like taking a 6 foot man and asking people on the street how tall he is. When they say he is 5’10" are you gonna tell them there is a 2 in 3 chance that they are right? No… he either is or is not the heighth they guessed. Just like Mahaloth either is or is not blackheart. There are no odds to be figured.

this is why i suck at statistics but rock at poker. when you are playing hold 'em your down cards are what they are. they do not change for the course of the hand. having said that i can begin to make assumptions abbout those unknowns by a variety of methods. how do you act? how do you bet, or not? also, when the community cards show there are additional assumptions that can be made. so you are right, the original never changes but conclusions about that original can certainly be imputed.

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**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\
**Post date:** [May 23, 2009, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1786 "2009-05-23T13:44:05Z")

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I am not saying I am against Chronos’ plan.

However, the debate reminds me of the argument “I don’t care to much for odds in Blackjack, I figure, it is a 50/50 chance, either it is the card I need, or it isn’t”

I am not saying I agree with that, either.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\
**Post date:** [May 23, 2009, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1787 "2009-05-23T14:01:51Z")

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> [@paulwhoisaghost](#):
>
> The issue is, you are saying that Mahaloth has a 2 in 3 chance of being a blackheart… when is actuality he either is or he isn’t there isn’t a 1 out of 3 times that he’ll turn up town… it’s not the same as odds of a number being rolled on dice… or that certain cards will be flipped… \*\*the outcome was determined long before you started figuring the odds. \*\*
> 
> It’s like taking a 6 foot man and asking people on the street how tall he is. When they say he is 5’10" are you gonna tell them there is a 2 in 3 chance that they are right? No… he either is or is not the heighth they guessed. **Just like Mahaloth either is or is not blackheart. There are no odds to be figured.**

Oh fun.  
\*\*  
FUN.\*\*

Ok. Wow. If we were playing Math, I would agree with you here Paul. We aren’t.

We are playing Mafia. Not only can Scum appear to be town, \*\*THEY HAVE TO, FOR OPTIMAL PLAY. \*\* There is a variable here, it is not static. Not only is there a vairiable here, but Paul is calling the wrong element the varible.

I follow your 5/10 6 feet example perfectly. You are saying that players can never change up how they present. This means that at all times, A Blackheart is going to be a Blackheart. Further, in the “Town” concept we have, this would mean, they **WOULD** basically say or imply all scum tells as possible, and will even say “ **Hey, I’m Scum!** ”

I THINK NOT.

Here is the strange thing now. I like what Chronos put forward. Perhaps I like it more than I should.

Perhaps more than I should on my Mahaloth vote.

But, I can only over extend in one area.

And, if Chronos’ Idea and mine can overlap, I’m not going to change just to change.

–

The thought occurs to me, that you guys are one or two (in game) days ahead of me in your playing. I will catch up soon, but I know I am not there yet.

–

And the further poser is this :

Are we all playing with Bad Math, or are someone of us exploiting wrong math, to hide?

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\
**Post date:** [May 23, 2009, 2:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1788 "2009-05-23T14:19:45Z")

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I will not be back in untill later tonight. ((And there was much rejoicing.))

Again,

Enjoy the silence. Words are very, unnecessary.

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**Author:** ![Trepa\_Mayfield](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/edb3f5/32.png) [@Trepa\_Mayfield](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trepa_Mayfield)\
**Post date:** [May 23, 2009, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1789 "2009-05-23T14:48:13Z")

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Vote Count:

Peeker (2): Mahaloth, Thing Fish  
Bear\_Nenno (3): Allwalker, Chronos, BillPaul  
Mahaloth (1): Meeko

> [@Meeko](#):
>
> **What happens if NO ONE votes?**

No lynch.

> [@Chronos](#):
>
> Vote count?

Sorry, it’s been a busy couple of days.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![peekercpa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8baadc/32.png) [@peekercpa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peekercpa)\
**Post date:** [May 23, 2009, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1790 "2009-05-23T15:12:39Z")

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yaknow, i like numbers.

don’t necessarily agree with the math that **chronos** is using but it sure supports my feelings.

**vote mahaloth**

let’s watch the worm wiggle on the pavement

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Joey\_P](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/919ad9/32.png) [@Joey\_P](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Joey_P)\
**Post date:** [May 23, 2009, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1791 "2009-05-23T15:17:52Z")

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> [@Bear\_Nenno](#):
>
> Don’t lynch me!! I know it’s scummy to lurk, but I have no freaking clue what’s going on here. As much as I’d love for you guys to put me out of my misery and end my obligation to this game, it is not in Town’s best interest.  
> I am not scum.
> 
> I tried on three seperate occassions to catch up in this game, but the fact that it’s all in one GIANT thread, makes it hard to seperate everything. Add to that the fact that we can talk strategy at night, it’s impossible to figure out where in the game any particular page is. It’s overwhelming.  
> When I first subbed in, I was fired up and motivated. But all the confustion, rule changes, indecisive mod, subs, etc… I couldn’t take it anymore.
> 
> Though my life can’t really add much to Town’s efforts, my death will certainly take away from it.

Need I say more…  
**Vote Bear**

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\
**Post date:** [May 23, 2009, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1792 "2009-05-23T15:23:54Z")

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Chronos, isn’t all that a really long winded way of saying that Mahaloth and Inner Stickler have each voted for the fewest living players?

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [May 23, 2009, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1793 "2009-05-23T16:16:03Z")

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> [@](#):
>
> Does your analysis factor in people who claim their vote was bought? A BH might vote for a BH against their will, even following this strategy.

I did not count any votes that were claimed bought in my analysis, since it seems pretty certain that there are votes being bought, anyone who had their vote bought would want to declare it, and we didn’t have any counterclaims, so I assume that all of the claims of bought votes were accurate.

> [@](#):
>
> Chronos, isn’t all that a really long winded way of saying that Mahaloth and Inner Stickler have each voted for the fewest living players?

It’s a little more complicated than that, since it also takes into account who the players they voted for are, and who has voted for people. But I think it’s justified because, with six Town and a Sinner dead, the Blackhearts must be relatively overrepresented among the living players.

Oh, and the 46 possibilities I came up with are [spoiler]ecba  
edba  
fcba  
fdba  
gcba  
geba  
geca  
gecb  
gfba  
gfca  
gfcb  
icba  
idba  
ieba  
ieca  
iecb  
ieda  
iedb  
ifba  
ifca  
ifcb  
ifda  
ifdb  
igba  
igca  
igcb  
igea  
igeb  
igec  
igfa  
igfb  
igfc  
jeca  
jeda  
jfca  
jfda  
jhfc  
jhfd  
jica  
jida  
jiea  
jiec  
jied  
jifa  
jifc  
jifd

where a = Mahaloth, b = Chronos, c = paul3, d = Joey, e = Thing Fish, f = Rysto, g = AllWalker, h = peeker, i = Stickler, and j = Bear\_Nenno[/spoiler]and I can post my code, too, if anyone else has a c compiler.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\
**Post date:** [May 23, 2009, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1794 "2009-05-23T16:36:09Z")

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I don’t understand any of what Chronos is saying. I mean, come on, guys, I don’t think I have the worst voting record, considering how hard it is to decide whom to vote for.

☹

You do know my vote yesterDay was bought, right?

I don’t get it. What assumptions are you making?

On Day One, I voted Captain Pinkies, who died a Sinner the next Day.

On Day Two, I voted paul. I was not the only one who did and I gave my reasons. While it was a mis-lynch, I was not alone.;

Day Three,\*\* I didn’t get to vote!\*\* It was a bought vote!

So I’ve voted for one Sinner and one towns person. I really have the absolute worst track record? I find that hard to believe.

Today, I have voted for peeker and I’ve given reasons. I think it is important to note that when I vote, I actually give reasons for my vote. I think it is very important to look at the justifications people make for their votes. I think I have done quite well explaining my choices and why I think they are pro-town.

People like peeker, who just slaps votes randomly with no explanation, are the ones who act anti-town.

Chronos, help me understand.

☹

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\
**Post date:** [May 23, 2009, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1795 "2009-05-23T17:18:52Z")

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Chronos, would you mind posting the raw voting data? I’d like to see it to help me understand your method.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![paulwhoisaghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e5b9ba/32.png) [@paulwhoisaghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/paulwhoisaghost)\
**Post date:** [May 23, 2009, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1796 "2009-05-23T17:20:40Z")

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> [@Meeko](#):
>
> Oh fun.  
> \*\*  
> FUN.\*\*
> 
> Ok. Wow. If we were playing Math, I would agree with you here Paul. We aren’t.
> 
> We are playing Mafia. Not only can Scum appear to be town, \*\*THEY HAVE TO, FOR OPTIMAL PLAY. \*\* There is a variable here, it is not static. Not only is there a vairiable here, but Paul is calling the wrong element the varible.
> 
> I follow your 5/10 6 feet example perfectly. You are saying that players can never change up how they present. This means that at all times, A Blackheart is going to be a Blackheart. Further, in the “Town” concept we have, this would mean, they **WOULD** basically say or imply all scum tells as possible, and will even say “ **Hey, I’m Scum!** ”
> 
> I THINK NOT.
> 
> Here is the strange thing now. I like what Chronos put forward. Perhaps I like it more than I should.
> 
> Perhaps more than I should on my Mahaloth vote.
> 
> But, I can only over extend in one area.
> 
> And, if Chronos’ Idea and mine can overlap, I’m not going to change just to change.
> 
> –
> 
> The thought occurs to me, that you guys are one or two (in game) days ahead of me in your playing. I will catch up soon, but I know I am not there yet.
> 
> –
> 
> And the further poser is this :
> 
> Are we all playing with Bad Math, or are someone of us exploiting wrong math, to hide?

No no no Meeko… the point isn’t that the blackhearts will always appear blackhearts to us… it’s that no matter how badly we guess at whether they are blackheart or not… they will still be blackhearts. In the 5’10"/6’ example it is equivalent to the guessing person asking tall man how tall he is and the tall man lying. Now if the guessing person is good at judging heights (finding scum) then he may be able to correctly guess tall man’s height.

And as far as the coin flip analogy that was presented… it doesn’t accurately portray the situation we are in. In order for it to be accurate you would have to take multiple coins and prearrange them with a limited number of them showing up heads, a limited number of tails, and a limited number that are neither. Then you would have to have me guess what the outcome of each one was. The probability in the situation is only going to show how likely I am to get all of them right. I still have a 50/50 chance of guessing any singular one on its own.

But like I said… this is Mafia… not coinflips. We don’t know how many blackhearts there are… how many sinners there are… how many town there are… we can’t rely on probability to solve the game for us… we will lose. Even if Mahaloth has the worst voting record it doesn’t mean he is scum. Check out the Star Wars themed game I played in on FB… I was duped by Pedescribe and others by their insistent snuggling. I was convinced they were town and defended them to their deaths… I was wrong… So my voting record there was terrible I think I only voted correctly once… but I was town through and through.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\
**Post date:** [May 23, 2009, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1797 "2009-05-23T17:34:52Z")

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> [@paulwhoisaghost](#):
>
> I was duped by Pedescribe and others by their insistent snuggling. I was convinced they were town and defended them to their deaths… I was wrong… So my voting record there was terrible I think I only voted correctly once… but I was town through and through.

This is part of my point above. If we only look at voting records, it can be misleading. We have to look at the justifications that people give for votes. It is why I get frustrated when people don’t justify their votes(like peeker…the entire game).

I think my explanations have been pretty good. I’m not a very experienced player, but I’m doing my best, as opposed to just throwing votes around without explanation.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [May 23, 2009, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1798 "2009-05-23T18:22:11Z")

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> [@](#):
>
> Chronos, would you mind posting the raw voting data? I’d like to see it to help me understand your method.

I’m not sure if it’ll help, but:

[spoiler]Meeko (known town)  
special ed (known town, dead)  
Mahaloth Spurious, Pinkies+, paul1++, peeker,  
Chronos Spurious+, paul1, Pinkies++, Nanook+, peeker, Bear\_Nenno,  
BillMC/paul3   
Joey P Spurious+, --, Angel+, paul3, -  
AngeloftheNorth/paul2 (known town, dead)  
Thing Fish Angel+, Meeko, Angel, paul1++, peeker+, peeker,  
Sir Dirx/Rysto paul1+, paul1++, Thing Fish+,  
AllWalker Spurious+, Nanook, Joey P, Pinkies++, Angel+, peeker, Bear\_Nenno,  
peekercpa/Freudian Slit Chronos+, paul1++, Mahaloth, Chronos, special ed, --,  
Inner Stickler --, paul1, --, peeker+,  
Telcontar (known town, dead)  
Nanook (known town, dead)  
Justin Credible/Bear\_Nenno Spurious+, --,  
Captain Pinkies (known sinner, dead)  
Spurious George (known town, dead)  
Idle Thoughts/paul1 (known town, dead)

A – indicates no vote for the Day, a + indicates the final vote the person ended the Day with, and the paul1/Pinkies vote is marked with a ++, since, being so close, each individual vote meant more. I was considering weighting these votes more highly somehow, but decided that it was complicated enough as it is.[/spoiler]  
**Mahaloth** , as I said, I did not include bought votes in the analysis. And it’s based not only on whom you did or did not vote for, but on who did or did not vote for you. Basically, what this analysis is saying is that it looks likely that you have voted for no Blackhearts and no Blackhearts have voted for you.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\
**Post date:** [May 23, 2009, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1799 "2009-05-23T19:04:18Z")

</div>

> [@Chronos](#):
>
> And it’s based not only on whom you did or did not vote for, but on **who did or did not vote for you.**

It seems to me that your technique gets this totally backwards. You give pro-town points to players that have garnered votes, and pro-scum votes to players that have not. This rewards players who have played anti-town(and gotten votes for it) and penalizes players who have played the most pro-town(and haven’t been voted).

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Trepa\_Mayfield](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/edb3f5/32.png) [@Trepa\_Mayfield](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trepa_Mayfield)\
**Post date:** [May 23, 2009, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1800 "2009-05-23T22:50:28Z")

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Vote Count:

Peeker (2): Mahaloth, Thing Fish  
Bear\_Nenno (4): Allwalker, Chronos, BillPaul, Joey P.  
Mahaloth (2): Meeko, peeker

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