# The Crimson Glyph (Werewolf/Mafia/Psychopath) **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [April 24, 2009, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271 "2009-04-24T22:16:54Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 97
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2009, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1921 "2009-05-26T04:12:01Z")
NETA: > [@](#): > > A constraint on the total number of Blackheart-on-Blackheart votes might be doable, though… Let me think about that some more. Yes, that’s definitely doable, now that I think about it. Back in a bit. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2009, 4:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1922 "2009-05-26T04:32:24Z")
OK, if we assume that there had been a maximum of one Blackheart-on-Blackheart conflict in the game, then there are 71 possibilities: Mahaloth 36 Chronos 36 paul3 34 Joey 32 Thing Fish 32 Rysto 40 AllWalker 30 peeker 8 Stickler 36 Using the additional assumption that I’m Town, there are 35 arrangements: Mahaloth 21 paul3 19 Joey 17 Thing Fish 17 Rysto 23 AllWalker 16 peeker 6 Stickler 21 I’m defining a “Blackheart-on-Blackheart conflict” as including any number of votes, either way, between two Blackhearts. So if Dirk Dastard voted for Victor Villain on Days 1 and 2, and Victor voted for Dirk on Day 2, that would only count as one conflict. I can very easily modify the program to include larger numbers of conflicts, a different total number of Blackhearts, or assumptions about any given player being or not being a Blackheart, if anyone’s interested in any of that. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2009, 5:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1923 "2009-05-26T05:05:09Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > Surely there must be a potential dissertation in here for some enterprising mathematician…😉 Do you guys want me to tackle the math here? I thought not. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2009, 5:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1924 "2009-05-26T05:09:57Z")
NETA : You know, I keep mis-reading things all day today. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2009, 6:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1925 "2009-05-26T06:00:07Z")
> [@pedescribe](#): > > It is Night 4. Due to airplanes and time zones, the night length will be extended to **1:00 Wedensday MDT**. I am taking Pede at his word here, hence, I am closing up shop for Monday. \*\* This goes out to who ever wants to field it, and I would entertain multiple people answering:\*\* Can ONE person please explain to me the pros and the cons of listing my claim agenda NOW, and the pros / cons of listing tommorow morning? ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2009, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1926 "2009-05-26T13:59:40Z")
If you post it now, you give the scum more time to tailor their lies to it. If you post it tomorrow, there’s a chance you could be unexpectedly busy tomorrow and not the chance to post it before Dawn. Post it tomorrow. Even if you don’t get it in by Dawn that’s not a disaster. You’re the obvious target for a night-kill but that makes you the obvious target for a protection, too. ---
**Author:** ![peekercpa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8baadc/32.png) [@peekercpa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peekercpa)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2009, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1927 "2009-05-26T14:30:55Z")
> [@Rysto](#): > > If you post it now, you give the scum more time to tailor their lies to it. > If you post it tomorrow, there’s a chance you could be unexpectedly busy tomorrow and not the chance to post it before Dawn. > > Post it tomorrow. Even if you don’t get it in by Dawn that’s not a disaster. You’re the obvious target for a night-kill but that makes you the obvious target for a protection, too. i agree that waiting is better. but not too late. i damn near screwed the pooch for our team on a planned last minute vote switch when my bb decided to do a re-boot with less than five minutes until deadline. we eventually won but that could have been disatrous since i couldn’t get my vote down in time. sorry, **nanook**. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2009, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1928 "2009-05-26T14:34:44Z")
> [@peekercpa](#): > > i agree that waiting is better. but not too late. When do you suggest Meeko post the list, then? An hour before Day Five or later than this? Meeko, what time zone are you in? I forgot if you told us. My understanding is that Day Five starts at 3:00 PM Eastern on Wednesday. ---
**Author:** ![Joey\_P](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/919ad9/32.png) [@Joey\_P](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Joey_P)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2009, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1929 "2009-05-26T14:40:30Z")
> [@peekercpa](#): > > when my bb decided to do a re-boot with less than five minutes until deadline. How dare you suggest that the SDMB is not perfectly stable. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2009, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1930 "2009-05-26T14:42:09Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > OK, if we assume that there had been a maximum of one Blackheart-on-Blackheart conflict in the game, then there are 71 possibilities: > Mahaloth 36 > Chronos 36 > paul3 34 > Joey 32 > Thing Fish 32 > Rysto 40 > AllWalker 30 > peeker 8 > Stickler 36 > > Using the additional assumption that I’m Town, there are 35 arrangements: > Mahaloth 21 > paul3 19 > Joey 17 > Thing Fish 17 > Rysto 23 > AllWalker 16 > peeker 6 > Stickler 21 > > I’m defining a “Blackheart-on-Blackheart conflict” as including any number of votes, either way, between two Blackhearts. So if Dirk Dastard voted for Victor Villain on Days 1 and 2, and Victor voted for Dirk on Day 2, that would only count as one conflict. > > I can very easily modify the program to include larger numbers of conflicts, a different total number of Blackhearts, or assumptions about any given player being or not being a Blackheart, if anyone’s interested in any of that. Very interesting. The one thing I notice about these numbers, especially the ones that don’t assume you’re Town, is that, as you surmised, the difference between players is much smaller – except that\*\* peeker\*\* is now way down on his own little island of towniness. Can you explain in simple language why that is? ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2009, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1931 "2009-05-26T14:47:42Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > Meeko, what time zone are you in? I forgot if you told us. Eastern, but, I keep odd hours. Being unemployed. ☹ I’m more 10 - 3 than 6 - 12. > [@Joey\_P](#): > > How dare you suggest that the SDMB is not perfectly stable. Yeah, we have half a chance, when all the hamsters pull their weight. A few of them ask for something called a “break”. Vote the pro-union SDMB hamster. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2009, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1932 "2009-05-26T14:49:24Z")
**Is controling the vote having ALL of the votes, or just having a simple 50% + 1 Majority?** ---
**Author:** ![Joey\_P](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/919ad9/32.png) [@Joey\_P](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Joey_P)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2009, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1933 "2009-05-26T15:00:43Z")
> [@Meeko](#): > > **Is controling the vote having ALL of the votes, or just having a simple 50% + 1 Majority?** “Controlling the vote” in a ‘normal’ two faction game is having an equal number of scum and town after a lynch. The NK will give scum the lead (50%+1) the next Day and barring any odd power roles they could knock out town one by one, even if everyone knows who they are. How it works in this game should be similar, but I would think the game would continue because even once Blackhearts ‘control the vote’ if they kill people in the wrong order they could wind up with all living players being sinners and the sinners win. ---
**Author:** ![Joey\_P](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/919ad9/32.png) [@Joey\_P](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Joey_P)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2009, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1934 "2009-05-26T15:02:10Z")
NETA, typically once scum control the vote (equal number scum and town after a lynch), the mod calls the game. ---
**Author:** ![peekercpa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8baadc/32.png) [@peekercpa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peekercpa)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2009, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1935 "2009-05-26T15:16:32Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > When do you suggest Meeko post the list, then? An hour before Day Five or later than this? > > Meeko, what time zone are you in? I forgot if you told us. > > My understanding is that Day Five starts at 3:00 PM Eastern on Wednesday. i’d say about an hour. but i want to caveat that i am unsure about folks’ connection reliability so it’s actually very subjective. see my next post. ---
**Author:** ![peekercpa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8baadc/32.png) [@peekercpa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peekercpa)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2009, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1936 "2009-05-26T15:23:32Z")
> [@Joey\_P](#): > > How dare you suggest that the SDMB is not perfectly stable. and i don’t even think it was on this board. i was just making the observation that my communication device that had functioned perfectly for months decided to hibernate at a bad time. i mean, i had even practiced how long it would take to type out a post and submit. seriously, about ten seconds before pushing the send button i get a network notification that service is unavailable and all connecting devices need to reboot. because i used to work off of bb this took about ten minutes. by that time my teammate was swinging in the trees. so anything less than fifteen minutes or so seems kind of dicey. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2009, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1937 "2009-05-26T15:23:41Z")
> [@Rysto](#): > > You’re the obvious target for a night-kill but that makes you the obvious target for a protection, too. Let’s go here. It’s the open secret of the moment. I need to address it at some point. I share this opinion, Rysto, and I know that other people have stated it, or implied it. I once asked Ed in the masonry, if a player could more or less carve out an achieved role, and for that role to be of more value to the town than the ascribed role they were given. Back at the time I asked him this, I honestly thought that I was one of the best data miners in the game. You may think and say what ever you want, but there would be situations where voting for yourself could be the most optimal play. Talking about my ascribed role only, I can see how a sacrifice in this manner could help town, if I cast the deciding vote on myself. This assumes, of course, I have a REALLY good idea who is who, among Town. Also, I would need the votes under me as well. It is not a move we would want to make, but pawns delay the game, and in that time, something else can happen. At the time I asked about self voting, I had no idead that the town would be as far off as it is now. The move is sacrificial, the move is not one we would want to do, but the question on the procedures of self voting, IS relevant. I have told the game that I was protected a few nights back. Indeed, I was. Not knowing how this game works, I was surprised to see that “During the night” I was protected. My only guess, is that my confirmation as Town was easy to deduce, long before I thought it was. I mean to say, I had no idea how much danger I was in, back at that time. This time, it is more obvious. It does weigh on me, surprisingly enough, that the choice for protection, again, is more less forced on me. I feel as if somehow, I am hogging this ability. Yet, at the same time, Even if we were NOT claiming tomorrow, it would seem to be pure math, that the ONLY confirmed Townie get all the help he can. - I go back and forth on this. But, I fear that the entire question is moot. Believe it or not, I have looked at Mafia Rules websites, and frankly, I am concerned at what I see. I also asked Pede a quesiton on timing, because LIFO and FIFO do matter. Magic Players who remember batches and / or “The Stack” timing procedures know exactly what I mean. The planets must have alligned here, beecause I can expand my exact example and reference to immediately become less obscure. **Peeker** , I am assuming you are indeed an Accountant, as such, you would understand my point on FIFO v. LIFO here as well. The question on timing IS relevant. Anyway, I Digress. I don’t think I can escape the bull’s eye I am wearing. I am going to be frank here, because if it has already happened, it has already happened. I am pretty sure it has. If it hasn’t. I need to ask the question I will ask, because it COULD end up being better for me. \*\* I am talking about Redirection.\*\* IIRC, Paul the first suggested that he had a Redirection power. Pede even put it into his hierarchy of timing. \*\*I would bet all that I own that I will get a “Durring The Night” PM tonight. \*\* I would further bet, that it is going to be more than one. Does Redirection redirect ALL night choices that target a player, or is it just one night choice? If it is one, how is it decided? It’s amazing what being a ‘dead man walking’ does for your coherence. ---
**Author:** ![peekercpa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8baadc/32.png) [@peekercpa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peekercpa)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2009, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1938 "2009-05-26T15:24:35Z")
and how freaking freaudian was that. i go to submit and get a database error. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2009, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1939 "2009-05-26T15:53:28Z")
> [@](#): > > It does weigh on me, surprisingly enough, that the choice for protection, again, is more less forced on me. I feel as if somehow, I am hogging this ability. Yet, at the same time, Even if we were NOT claiming tomorrow, it would seem to be pure math, that the ONLY confirmed Townie get all the help he can. - I go back and forth on this. Ultimately, the Doctor has to make the best choice e can; don’t feel guilty about “hogging” the protection, since it’s not your choice to make. That said, don’t take it for granted that you’ll be protected toNight, either: The Doctor has to do something resembling a game of Paper-Rock-Scissors with the Scum. You’re the obvious choice for the Scum to target, but you’re also the obvious choice for the Doctor to target. Given that, the Scum might decide “Oh, well, he’s going to be protected anyway, we might as well target someone else”. But given _that_, the Doctor might decide “They probably think I’ll protect **Meeko** and therefore target someone else, so there’s no benefit to me protecting **Meeko** ”, and so on. Basically, the Doctor wants to protect the person the Scum target (whomever that is), while the Scum want to target someone the Doctor isn’t protecting (preferably a power role, if they can). The best-case scenario for Scum (worst-case for Town) is probably that the Doctor protects you, and the Scum make a lucky guess and kill the Doctor. Of course, the Doctor can prevent this worst-case by self-protecting, but that runs the risk of losing you. I _think_ that the optimum strategy for the Doctor (in the same sense that having an equal chance to pick each randomly is optimum in Paper, Rock, Scissors), is to randomly choose to self-protect with a 1/6 chance, or to protect **Meeko** with a 5/6 chance, but my game theory is a bit rusty. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2009, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271/1940 "2009-05-26T16:29:52Z")
\*\*The bluff and the double bluff will get you every time. \*\* I have a post ready to go, and I think I can post it at the right time. Perhaps I will get decapitated. That would be one way for the scum to get ahead in life. It would suck, if I lost my head. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271.md?page=96) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-crimson-glyph-werewolf-mafia-psychopath/494271.md?page=98)