# The data seem to indicate peak oil already happened. Are we there yet? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 10, 2010, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-data-seem-to-indicate-peak-oil-already-happened-are-we-there-yet/546219 "2010-07-10T15:04:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![DanBlather](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/f4b2a3/32.png) [@DanBlather](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DanBlather)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2010, 5:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-data-seem-to-indicate-peak-oil-already-happened-are-we-there-yet/546219/101 "2010-08-20T05:15:07Z")
> [@Sven\_of\_the\_Jungle](#): > > That too is difficult. The classic sources of alternative energy — wind, energy, solar, nuclear, hydropower — become harder and less economical to set up as petroleum prices rise. It won’t be easy to build another Three Gorges if we had to carry all that concrete on the backs of donkeys. And why divert all that energy to extracting petroleum, when it could be more efficiently transmitted more directly to the end-user? And that’s why we drill for oil using horses. It’s be stupid to waste energy derived from petroleum. ---
**Author:** ![Sven\_of\_the\_Jungle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecb155/32.png) [@Sven\_of\_the\_Jungle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sven_of_the_Jungle)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2010, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-data-seem-to-indicate-peak-oil-already-happened-are-we-there-yet/546219/102 "2010-08-20T14:03:41Z")
> [@DanBlather](#): > > > [@Sven\_of\_the\_Jungle](#): > > > > That too is difficult. The classic sources of alternative energy — wind, energy, solar, nuclear, hydropower — become harder and less economical to set up as petroleum prices rise. It won’t be easy to build another Three Gorges if we had to carry all that concrete on the backs of donkeys. And why divert all that energy to extracting petroleum, when it could be more efficiently transmitted more directly to the end-user? > > And that’s why we drill for oil using horses. It’s be stupid to waste energy derived from petroleum. I grew up in horse country. You know how much it takes to keep a horse alive and well? There’s a reason we replaced draft animals with machines a century ago: they’re freaking expensive. They put down a lot of feed a day, need sleep and poop a lot. They get sick. They get injured. You get a lot less work out of a horse than you would a machine. Donkeys and oxen are easier to keep up, but the same still applies. Once oil prices hit a certain level, sure, draft animals might be cost-competitive with machines, but considering how many horses it would take to match the motive power of a fossil fuel-powered engine and how much upkeep each horse will need, I’d say we dispense with the middle and just use the horses directly. After all, it worked well enough for much of human history (at least for those wealthy enough to keep up horses). Now, the twenty-second century won’t be a replay of the last thousand years of human history by any means.The scientific knowledge accumulated and tested over the last two centuries is a real game-changer. ---
**Author:** ![adhay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ecd19e/32.png) [@adhay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adhay)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2010, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-data-seem-to-indicate-peak-oil-already-happened-are-we-there-yet/546219/103 "2010-08-22T03:02:02Z")
> [@Sven\_of\_the\_Jungle](#): > > > [@DanBlather](#): > > > > And that’s why we drill for oil using horses. It’s be stupid to waste energy derived from petroleum. > > Now, the twenty-second century won’t be a replay of the last thousand years of human history by any means.The scientific knowledge accumulated and tested over the last two centuries is a real game-changer. Courtesy of cheap fuel. What you gonna do when the wells run dry? Are you putting that hard won technology to use. Or are you kicking back on next year’s COLR? You could do both. Game 'em. ---
**Author:** ![Sven\_of\_the\_Jungle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecb155/32.png) [@Sven\_of\_the\_Jungle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sven_of_the_Jungle)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2010, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-data-seem-to-indicate-peak-oil-already-happened-are-we-there-yet/546219/104 "2010-08-22T03:28:24Z")
> [@adhay](#): > > > [@Sven\_of\_the\_Jungle](#): > > > > Now, the twenty-second century won’t be a replay of the last thousand years of human history by any means.The scientific knowledge accumulated and tested over the last two centuries is a real game-changer. > > Courtesy of cheap fuel. What you gonna do when the wells run dry? Are you putting that hard won technology to use. > > Or are you kicking back on next year’s COLR? > > You could do both. Game 'em. COLR? Forgive my density, but would you be so kind as to unpack that acronym for my sake? I’d agree and say for the most part, the vast leaps in scientific knowledge gained in the past century or so were sprung from a society floating on a sea of cheap oil. But it’s not like all the textbooks will be burnt for fuel and all the experts will suddenly die off if crude oil prices exceed some magic number for some magic length of time. Also bear in mind that if society does collapse, we’ll have more raw materials than we know what to do with, especially metals. That might help. We understand chemistry, biology, ecology, meteorology, much more deeply than we did two hundred years ago. We might not be able to build satellites and flat-screen TVs anymore, but we can put all that salvage to use. It doesn’t take an industrialized society to understand succession, or germ theory, or weather patterns, and this could come in handy in the future when we can’t keep up with this cheap oil bender of ours. ---
**Author:** ![adhay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ecd19e/32.png) [@adhay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adhay)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2010, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-data-seem-to-indicate-peak-oil-already-happened-are-we-there-yet/546219/105 "2010-08-22T03:56:36Z")
> [@Sven\_of\_the\_Jungle](#): > > > [@adhay](#): > > > > Courtesy of cheap fuel. What you gonna do when the wells run dry? Are you putting that hard won technology to use. > > > > Or are you kicking back on next year’s COLR? > > > > You could do both. Game 'em. > > COLR? Forgive my density, but would you be so kind as to unpack that acronym for my sake? Certainly. Cost Of Living Raise. My rent is capped at 30% of my monthly govt stipend. I could afford to live in NYC. With the present oil driven infrastructure. > [@](#): > > I’d agree and say for the most part, the vast leaps in scientific knowledge gained in the past century or so were sprung from a society floating on a sea of cheap oil. But it’s not like all the textbooks will be burnt for fuel and all the experts will suddenly die off if crude oil prices exceed some magic number for some magic length of time. > > Also bear in mind that if society does collapse, we’ll have more raw materials than we know what to do with, especially metals. That might help. We understand chemistry, biology, ecology, meteorology, much more deeply than we did two hundred years ago. We might not be able to build satellites and flat-screen TVs anymore, but we can put all that salvage to use. > > It doesn’t take an industrialized society to understand succession, or germ theory, or weather patterns, and this could come in handy in the future when we can’t keep up with this cheap oil bender of ours. Right. So. What will your life look like when gas goes to $6/gal at the pump? It will and will keep on rising. Just my opinion. Germ theory or a potato? ---
**Author:** ![DanBlather](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/f4b2a3/32.png) [@DanBlather](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DanBlather)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2010, 4:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-data-seem-to-indicate-peak-oil-already-happened-are-we-there-yet/546219/106 "2010-08-22T04:03:24Z")
> [@adhay](#): > > So. What will your life look like when gas goes to $6/gal at the pump? It will and will keep on rising. Just my opinion. OMG. Life will end at [that price](http://goeurope.about.com/gi/o.htm?zi=1/XJ&zTi=1&sdn=goeurope&cdn=travel&tm=11&f=10&su=p531.51.336.ip_&tt=2&bt=1&bts=1&zu=http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/prices.html%23Motor). ---
**Author:** ![adhay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ecd19e/32.png) [@adhay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adhay)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2010, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-data-seem-to-indicate-peak-oil-already-happened-are-we-there-yet/546219/107 "2010-08-22T04:08:45Z")
> [@DanBlather](#): > > > [@adhay](#): > > > > So. What will your life look like when gas goes to $6/gal at the pump? It will and will keep on rising. Just my opinion. > > OMG. Life will end at [that price](http://goeurope.about.com/gi/o.htm?zi=1/XJ&zTi=1&sdn=goeurope&cdn=travel&tm=11&f=10&su=p531.51.336.ip_&tt=2&bt=1&bts=1&zu=http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/prices.html%23Motor). You may be right. ---
**Author:** ![Sven\_of\_the\_Jungle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecb155/32.png) [@Sven\_of\_the\_Jungle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sven_of_the_Jungle)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2010, 4:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-data-seem-to-indicate-peak-oil-already-happened-are-we-there-yet/546219/108 "2010-08-22T04:37:42Z")
> [@adhay](#): > > Right. > > So. What will your life look like when gas goes to $6/gal at the pump? It will and will keep on rising. Just my opinion. > > Germ theory or a potato? Why not both? Apply the body of scientific knowledge accumulated in the past couple of centuries to growing potatos. We already have a buzzword for that very thing: permaculture. Prices at the pump will keep on rising; this is inevitable as the Sun rising in the East. The only question is: how quickly? ---
**Author:** ![adhay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ecd19e/32.png) [@adhay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adhay)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2010, 12:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-data-seem-to-indicate-peak-oil-already-happened-are-we-there-yet/546219/109 "2010-08-22T12:18:20Z")
> [@Sven\_of\_the\_Jungle](#): > > … Why not both? Apply the body of scientific knowledge accumulated in the past couple of centuries to growing potatos. We already have a buzzword for that very thing: permaculture. > > Prices at the pump will keep on rising; this is inevitable as the Sun rising in the East. The only question is: how quickly? Aye, there’s the rub. Well before the alternatives become relatively less expensive, I opine. ---
**Author:** ![DanBlather](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/f4b2a3/32.png) [@DanBlather](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DanBlather)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2010, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-data-seem-to-indicate-peak-oil-already-happened-are-we-there-yet/546219/110 "2010-08-22T14:20:44Z")
> [@Sven\_of\_the\_Jungle](#): > > Prices at the pump will keep on rising; this is inevitable as the Sun rising in the East. And the sky falling in the west. ---
**Author:** ![adhay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ecd19e/32.png) [@adhay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adhay)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2010, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-data-seem-to-indicate-peak-oil-already-happened-are-we-there-yet/546219/111 "2010-08-23T04:20:19Z")
> [@DanBlather](#): > > > [@Sven\_of\_the\_Jungle](#): > > > > Prices at the pump will keep on rising; this is inevitable as the Sun rising in the East. > > And the sky falling in the west. NSEW. It’s endemic. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-data-seem-to-indicate-peak-oil-already-happened-are-we-there-yet/546219.md?page=5)