# The Democratic Domino Theory Revisited **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 2, 2005, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-domino-theory-revisited/292648 "2005-03-02T21:00:47Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![eponymous](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e0b2c6/32.png) [@eponymous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eponymous)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2005, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-domino-theory-revisited/292648/41 "2005-03-03T17:51:37Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > I agree 100%, but what’s your point? Your earlier post is still incorrect. If you didn’t mean it that way, it certainly could be interpretted that way (re: “allow”). Sorry - I wans’t trying to confuse matters. I should have added the qualification “allow for the elections in the manner which they actually occured.” My mistake… ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2005, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-domino-theory-revisited/292648/42 "2005-03-03T18:20:57Z")
> [@](#): > > WMD was the convenient bogeyman excuse to frighten the populace into backing the damn fool war. But when said WMDs failed to materialize (thanks in large part to inept cherry-picking of half-baked intel), the Administration couldn’t admit to either screwing up or lying to the public, so they scrambled with the revisionist backpedal twaddle about how it was just a “salable” excuse. The ability of the Bush Apologists to regurgitate this nonsense – even in the face of overwhelming pre-war bushit from high-ranking Administration officials – merely demonstrates how pervasive the groupthink is. You’ve lost the argument and your stance, Saddams out of power, quit bellyaching. You’d rather see Saddam and his repressive regime in power if that was the price we had to pay? So you say Bush lied, and has lied some more times over, what are you going to do about it? Nothing, nothing you say will change what he did. Case closed, face it, you lost. Game over. Yes blaming your one trick ponyism on group think, maybe its because people are sick of what you’re saying, ever thought of that? ---
**Author:** ![quixotic78](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/3ab097/32.png) [@quixotic78](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/quixotic78)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2005, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-domino-theory-revisited/292648/43 "2005-03-03T18:41:31Z")
> [@eponymous](#): > > Hmmm - it would be interesting to find out whether the major Arab Satellites (Al-Jazeera, Al-Arabiyah) covered the situation in the Ukraine extensively. The reason I ask is that I read somewhere (forgot where exactly) that one could make the claim that the rise of the Arab satellites have played a major role in the burgening demand for democratization in the Middle East (if one could call it such). I spotted the satellite rationale in a blog I read (Washington Monthly/Political Animal), and [here](http://abuaardvark.typepad.com/abuaardvark/2005/03/arab_tv_and_reg.html) is what Kevin Drum links to. As regards to the larger issue, I’ll just go with a line which I should make into my sig for my brief forays into GD: What **Kimstu** said. And **John Mace** too. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2005, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-domino-theory-revisited/292648/44 "2005-03-03T20:10:23Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > I repeat, **where’s the causal connection?** Please indicate what sort of evidence you would accept. You’ve seen quotes from knowledgeable and influential people in the reason, and that has not seemed enough. Do you want to move this discussion forward by adopting a position, or do you just want to be pedantic? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2005, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-domino-theory-revisited/292648/45 "2005-03-03T20:19:23Z")
> [@Brutus](#): > > Sure thing. You’ve been dismissing the notion of change in the ME since day one of Operation Iraqi Freedom (not ‘Operation Iraqi WMD and WMD only’, **rjung** , as your one-trick self will note), and now that your damned lying eyes are trying to convince you otherwise, now it’s just a ‘unintended consequence’, huh? > > The left’s capability for self-delusion is simply amazing. I have? You can, of course, prove this? I don’t recall giving that much thought to the issue, since that wasn’t, in fact, the issue. But you’re quite right, it was named “Operation Iraqi Freedom”, for whatever effect such droll window dressing may have. The bold invasion of Grenada was named “Operation Urgent Fury”, with just about the same basis in fact and fancy. But now we are given to believe that the alleged threat from Iraq was merely one of many, many reasons why the invasion was absolutely necessary, urgently necessary, couldn’t wait. But heck, we already occupied Kuwait. If the desperate need to bring democracy to the suffering ME is so entirely urgent, why didn’t we start there? Didn’t even have to invade, already there. See any democracy in Kuwait, friend **Brutus**? See any in Pakistan, our staunch ally? Uzbekistan? Saudi Arabia? And I would be remiss not to acknowledge **AQA’s** reminders that this administration has no equal in the realm of pious and mealy-mouthed bloviations. Would that it were so, that the Bushivik admin strode forth nobly and forthrightly made it’s case for war solely on the pristine goal of spreading democracy. Some 1500 of our best and brightest might still be alive, some unknown number of innocent Iraqis. and we might not be universally despised as arrogant, unheeding yahoos. Perhaps friends **Brutus** and **AQA** sincerely believe that if that were, in fact, the proposition laid before the American people…that we should sacrifice a goodly number of our children and God only knows how much money…so that Iraq might be blessed with democracy…perhaps they do sincerely believe we would have. What do you say, fellows? Believe that, do you? Please advise, so we can get some calibration, some sense of scale as to what you mean when you discuss the “capacity for self-delusion”. ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2005, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-domino-theory-revisited/292648/46 "2005-03-03T20:31:40Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > Yes blaming your one trick ponyism on group think, maybe its because people are sick of what you’re saying, ever thought of that? The facts don’t change no matter how much you wish to ignore them. > [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > Case closed, face it, you lost. Game over. Leave it to the Bush Apologists to equate invading a sovergn nation and killing thousands of people as a “game.” Admit it, **Ryan;** what _really_ gets your goat is the realization, deep in your heart, that you have adopted the morally inferior position of supporting a war-monger. Your soul has been stained by your support of this immoral war, and no amount of breast-beating will get it out… ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2005, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-domino-theory-revisited/292648/47 "2005-03-03T20:52:16Z")
Besides disagreeing with the OP’s thesis, I would caution against an overly optimistic view of bringing Democracy to the M.E. If a wave of democracy were to wash over the M.E. like it did over Eastern Europe in the late '89/'90, we’d see Osama bin Laden elected president of Saudi Arabia within the year. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2005, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-domino-theory-revisited/292648/48 "2005-03-03T21:44:36Z")
> [@](#): > > The facts don’t change no matter how much you wish to ignore them. Yes, as do the facts Iraqs moving towards democracy, something which you cannot admit to. Yes facts don’t change, but how many times do I have to hear ad nauseum about how Bush lied and how everything he touches turns to dust, so to speak. > [@](#): > > Admit it, Ryan; what really gets your goat is the realization, deep in your heart, that you have adopted the morally inferior position of supporting a war-monger. Your soul has been stained by your support of this immoral war, and no amount of breast-beating will get it out… The so called warmonger whos administration liberated Iraq and Afghanistan and has committed itself to bring democracy to that region? The facts for the case of invasion might have been wrong, but the Iraqis are now free and can vote and form the government they want to have, not whats imposed on them. If we followed your advice Saddam would still be in power right now. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2005, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-domino-theory-revisited/292648/49 "2005-03-03T22:01:42Z")
> [@Polycarp](#): > > Okay. My objections were to **the Bush Administration justifications**. Insofar as I know, neither Freidman nor Hitchens has military force with which to invade another nation. It’s their privilege to support the war on whatever grounds they choose. However, were these justifications adopted by the Administration prior to the war?. Yes, they were, as the links Age Quod Agis, supplied show. WMD was eventually the primary reason given, mostly because of the howls of derisive laugher that arose from some quarters when the idea of liberating oppressed people was mentioned. > [@](#): > > You mistake me here. If pro-democratic movements install democracies in the countries of the Middle East which do not now have them, that’s fine. My objection was, “What happened to the stable democratic government of Lebanon?” And, “Mr. Bush cannot claim to be giving Lebanon democracy.” Should the Lebanese be enabled, by virtue of the Iraq War or anything else, to re-establish their democracy, I’ll join you in rejoicing however it may happen I still don’t follow your point here, unless it’s still the same straw man. Okay, so at one time Beirut was the Paris of the Middle East at one time but it’s now been a mess for a generation. How exactly is relevant? ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2005, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-domino-theory-revisited/292648/50 "2005-03-03T22:10:02Z")
> [@furt](#): > > WMD was eventually the primary reason given, mostly because of the howls of derisive laugher that arose from some quarters when the idea of liberating oppressed people was mentioned… Of course you have legal rationale for the invasion that doesn’t depend on Iraq posing some sort of threat to the US? I’d like to hear it. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2005, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-domino-theory-revisited/292648/51 "2005-03-03T22:16:34Z")
> [@Squink](#): > > Of course you have legal rationale for the invasion that doesn’t depend on Iraq posing some sort of threat to the US? I’d like to hear it. Addressed in the OP. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2005, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-domino-theory-revisited/292648/52 "2005-03-03T22:42:14Z")
> [@furt](#): > > Addressed in the OP. Not really, dismissing concerns over the legality of the invasion as “foolish” doesn’t address the issue, it just puts it aside. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2005, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-domino-theory-revisited/292648/53 "2005-03-03T23:14:40Z")
> [@furt](#): > > And of course there are those who would argue that no matter if infinite good were to come of it, military action without UN approval is always a bad thing, because procedure is more important than performance. That’s a logically defensible (if foolish) position, **but it’s outside the scope of this thread**. … ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2005, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-domino-theory-revisited/292648/54 "2005-03-03T23:26:34Z")
Just so we’re straight that this is a FANTASY thread then. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2005, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-domino-theory-revisited/292648/55 "2005-03-03T23:30:59Z")
> [@Squink](#): > > Just so we’re straight that this is a FANTASY thread then. I think it’s just that the question of whether or not the invasion was legal is different than whether it should have been done or whether it had positive effects. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2005, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-domino-theory-revisited/292648/56 "2005-03-03T23:38:24Z")
> [@furt](#): > > Please indicate what sort of evidence you would accept. You’ve seen quotes from knowledgeable and influential people in the reason, and that has not seemed enough. Do you want to move this discussion forward by adopting a position, or do you just want to be pedantic? In this thread, following your links in the OP and reading others’ posts, I have seen only quotes discussing the existence of pro-democracy developments in Lebanon, Syria, Palestine and Egypt at this time; I have seen no quotes describing, let alone proving, the existence of any causal connection between those events and the invasion and occupation of Iraq. No one has even claimed, e.g., that the Lebanese who publicly demonstrated after Hariri’s assassination are in any way inspired by events in Iraq. Until I see something along those lines, I can’t even begin to evaluate its weight. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2005, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-domino-theory-revisited/292648/57 "2005-03-03T23:48:09Z")
> [@Age Quod Agis](#): > > And what about the statements of Middle Easterners and the press in the Middle East that the recent actions were inspired at least in part by the elections in Iraq _that have already been given in this thread_? On what basis do you reject those? I don’t accept or reject them because I haven’t seen them. I recall no such statements in the links in **furt’s** OP; perhaps I read them too quickly. To what post # are you referring? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2005, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-domino-theory-revisited/292648/58 "2005-03-03T23:49:41Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > No one has even claimed, e.g., that the Lebanese who publicly demonstrated after Hariri’s assassination are in any way inspired by events in Iraq. Until I see something along those lines, I can’t even begin to evaluate its weight. [How about this?](http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A45575-2005Feb22) > [@](#): > > The leader of this Lebanese intifada is Walid Jumblatt, the patriarch of the Druze Muslim community and, until recently, a man who accommodated Syria’s occupation. > > \ > > Jumblatt dresses like an ex-hippie, in jeans and loafers, but he maintains the exquisite manners of a Lebanese aristocrat. Over the years, I’ve often heard him denouncing the United States and Israel, but these days, in the aftermath of Hariri’s death, he’s sounding almost like a neoconservative. He says he’s determined to defy the Syrians until their troops leave Lebanon and the Lahoud government is replaced. > > “It’s strange for me to say it, but this process of change has started because of the American invasion of Iraq,” explains Jumblatt. “I was cynical about Iraq. But when I saw the Iraqi people voting three weeks ago, 8 million of them, it was the start of a new Arab world.” Jumblatt says this spark of democratic revolt is spreading. “The Syrian people, the Egyptian people, all say that something is changing. The Berlin Wall has fallen. We can see it.” ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2005, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-domino-theory-revisited/292648/59 "2005-03-03T23:59:59Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > We (ie, our government) have shown a willingness to tolerate very undemocratic governments (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Pakistan) as long as they’re on our side, while railing against similar governments (Iran, Syria, the Palestinians) which are NOT on our side. Well, yes. This was exactly the cold-war “our son of a bitch” philosophy that Bush pointedly said he was abandoning in 2002/3, because it was both repugnant and counterproductive. I have always thought the same. > [@](#): > > If a wave of democracy were to wash over the M.E. like it did over Eastern Europe in the late '89/'90, we’d see Osama bin Laden elected president of Saudi Arabia within the year. I don’t think so. Is there any evidence that Afghanis want the Taliban back? Is there a popular groundwell of fundamentalist Islamicism in Iraq … or anywhere else, right now? Bin Laden and the rest of the fundamentalists’ popularity arose because they were the only apparant alternative to accepting the shitty conditions created by dictators like Saddam, Mubarak and the Saudis with US and western complicity. At the very least, free people would know that electing a Islamicist would make them an enemy of the US. But I think it’s far more likely that if the alternative of a democratic, progressive future which they can shape for themselves is held out, the majority of the people will want take it. Whether or not they can do so, is another question; but as I said to Poly, that’s exactly why the Iraq war was a catalyst … it scares the strongmen. [This guy](http://www.strategypage.com/onpoint/articles/20041215.asp) was off by a month or so, but it’s prescience that deserves a hearing. ---
**Author:** ![Age\_Quod\_Agis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d07c76/32.png) [@Age\_Quod\_Agis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Age_Quod_Agis)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2005, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-domino-theory-revisited/292648/60 "2005-03-04T00:02:16Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > And I would be remiss not to acknowledge **AQA’s** reminders that this administration has no equal in the realm of pious and mealy-mouthed bloviations. Oh, come now, dear **'luci**. You sell yourself short. I mean, check _this_ out: > [@elucidator](#): > > Would that it were so, that the Bushivik admin strode forth nobly and forthrightly made it’s case for war solely on the pristine goal of spreading democracy. Some 1500 of our best and brightest might still be alive, some unknown number of innocent Iraqis. and we might not be universally despised as arrogant, unheeding yahoos. Perhaps friends **Brutus** and **AQA** sincerely believe that if that were, in fact, the proposition laid before the American people…that we should sacrifice a goodly number of our children and God only knows how much money…so that Iraq might be blessed with democracy…perhaps they do sincerely believe we would have. Obviously, the Bush administration has at least _one_ equal in that realm. But I do appreciate the clarification of your stance on these important issues. Step 1) Criticize Bush for not talking about the spread of democracy before the war. Step 2) When it’s pointed out that Bush did talk about the spread of democracy before the war, criticize Bush for talking about the spread of democracy before the war. Irrational Bush-hatred? Nah, he’s just _eeeeevil_. > [@elucidator](#): > > What do you say, fellows? Believe that, do you? Please advise, so we can get some calibration, some sense of scale as to what you mean when you discuss the “capacity for self-delusion”. I think that humanitarian concerns for the Iraqi people and the spread of democracy in Iraq and the Middle East were a few of the many, many reasons in favor of the war. But we’ve been over the fact that I don’t think there has to be only _one_ reason to go to war. For example, [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5715917&postcount=36). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-domino-theory-revisited/292648.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-domino-theory-revisited/292648.md?page=4)