# The Democratic Front Runner for 2020 Presidential race is: **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 28, 2018, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921 "2018-06-28T15:04:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2018, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/41 "2018-06-28T21:44:52Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Don’t be surprised – there isn’t any such fad. If Biden is a front runner, it’s both much too early and his support would only qualify for front-runner status on a technicality – I haven’t seen any polls in which Biden has more than 20% or so Democratic support in a hypothetical primary. That’s not anything close to “infatuation”. Not just Biden - Warren and Bernie, too. And a 70-year old current POTUS. Where’s the young blood? ---
**Author:** ![HelenGawn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a88e4f/32.png) [@HelenGawn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HelenGawn)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2018, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/42 "2018-06-28T22:09:15Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > A bit gaffe-prone too, and he was never very good in a debate unless the person across from him was Sarah Palin. I agree with those who say Biden’s “gaffes” morphed into “telling it like it is” - like iDJiT only truthful. Maybe - _maybe_ - he made a gaffe or two during the debate, but they disappeared in his opponent’s avalanche of word salad. iDJiT makes Palin look like Sandra Day O’Connor. ---
**Author:** ![Monocracy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monocracy/32/4493_2.png) [@Monocracy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monocracy)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2018, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/43 "2018-06-28T22:20:50Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Not just Biden - Warren and Bernie, too. And a 70-year old current POTUS. Where’s the young blood? Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Dwayne Johnson ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2018, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/44 "2018-06-28T22:49:11Z")
> [@DSYoungEsq](#): > > As for whether or not there IS a front-runner, I don’t think there is; at this point no one is really stepping up on the Democratic side and taking on the President as if they intend to take him on for real in two years. But if I had to put some money down now, I’d pick a younger, ethnically non-“white” and/or female candidate, who appears to have energy. If Michelle Obama says she’s running, is she the instant frontrunner? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2018, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/45 "2018-06-28T23:04:37Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > All politicians lie. That’s not what I meant to say but for the purpose of this thread, I don’t always agree with how he says it. Okay, so I was right the first time – you believe what Trump’s ego says about himself. > [@](#): > > Fighting bigotry and Misogyny? Does casting a blind eye and take money from nations who practice the above count? See Clinton and Iran, why take millions from them, as they stand for the exact opposite? Anthony Weiner or Al Franken. Sure, sure. No idea what you’re talking about re: money from Iran. As for Weiner and Franken, the Democrats booted them. Unlike the Republicans and Trump, the Democrats no longer tolerate sexual abusers. > [@](#): > > Economic fairness? Well, the economy is better now, and many have received raises. Families have more money back to sped thanks to tax cuts. How about real world fairness? Capitalism will always have its winner and losers but its much better than communism. I’m all for capitalism. I just want it done smartly, not like Trump in punishing our allies and starting trade wars. > [@](#): > > How about fighting for the victims from illegal immigration crime? No, Dem’s don’t talk about that. Illegal immigrants are less violent than Americans, according to statistics. Unlike Trump, I don’t want to demonize populations, which could lead to extremist violence. > [@](#): > > True Allies pay their share in treaties and do not charge tariffs. Solid criticism of Trump – didn’t know you had it in you. Good for you for calling out Trump for his harmful tariffs! > [@](#): > > Climate change? Are you using a fossil fuel car? If yes, you’re not fighting it. Switch to Tesla ASAP! You probably part of the problem. Bzzt, try again. I barely drive. I take public transportation almost everywhere. > [@](#): > > Where was Trump accused of rape? You didn’t know? Read here: [Donald Trump Accused of Rape and Human Trafficking | Snopes.com](https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/are-we-not-going-to-talk-about-trump/) He’s been accused of rape a few times, and sexual assault/harassment many more times. Further, he bragged about sexual assault and violating the consent of women multiple times. So you’re a supporter of someone who bragged about sexual assault and violating women’s consent. That’s your choice, and that you still support him tells us how you really view women. > [@](#): > > Sorry that is Bill Clinton and the Hollywood me too types. My guess is they might be held in high esteem in your eyes. Wrong. Unlike you, I won’t support sexual assaulters. You’re okay with that, but I’m not. Some of us aren’t willing to support sexual assaulters like Trump. You are, but that just reflects poorly on you. You have to live with that. > [@Silver\_lining](#): > > In other words no one is good enough to stand out besides Bernie and Biden a this point in time. Let’s talk about dates > > 2013: Trump forms a presidential exploratory committee. A sign he’s serious. > > With two years to go before the 2020 election, wouldn’t you say its time for Democrats to at least explore the process. Who has done so far? If you are finding few names I think that is telling. This tells us nothing. There are plenty of candidates in history, who ended up winning, who didn’t announce until the year prior to the election. There’s tons of time. Your concern is noted, but it’s not worth the attention of actual Democrats. We’ll consider the candidates who declare, rather than the opinions of Trump-lovers who are contemptuous of Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2018, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/46 "2018-06-28T23:05:54Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Not just Biden - Warren and Bernie, too. And a 70-year old current POTUS. Where’s the young blood? There are tons of “young” Democrats likely to run for President. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2018, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/47 "2018-06-28T23:28:29Z")
I agree it’s ridiculous to talk about a “front runner” this far in advance of the election, it’s just a function of name recognition. Based on the polls I have seen, I would say Biden and Sanders are co-leaders (but both with just around 20%), with Warren a step behind. But although it’s too early to anoint a front runner, it’s certainly not too early to start talking about it. As Presidential campaigns become bigger and more expensive, candidates need to start earlier and earlier. I’m sure that the eventual nominee has already begun to seriously explore running. But it’s not the sort of thing you would notice just from reading the mass media; Joe Biden making a speech in Iowa right now isn’t news outside Iowa. 538 had an article a few months back looking at who appeared to be pre-running, measured by things like finding reasons to go to Iowa, publishing books, doing talk shows, etc. They concluded that Biden and Sanders both seemed to be making serious moves towards running. I know Kamala Harris has also been meeting with big Dem donors in California. I think we need to find a candidate who is very much like Bernie Sanders ideologically and very much unlike him demographically. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2018, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/48 "2018-06-29T00:22:28Z")
Keep in mind liberals are probably going to make up almost half of democratic primary voters in 2020, if not more than half. According to Pew, solid liberals make up about 25% of voters now, nearly half of democrats. And their turnout is higher so they are more likely to vote in primaries. So if they have a candidate they unify behind, that candidate could win. I don’t know if Biden would be that candidate. I think Gavin Newsom will run sometime in the 2020s or maybe the 2030s. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2018, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/49 "2018-06-29T01:34:39Z")
> [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](#): > > If Michelle Obama says she’s running, is she the instant frontrunner? Now, Universe, I know I haven’t been a very good pantheist, but if you could give me this \*one \*sign… ---
**Author:** ![elbows](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/b3f665/32.png) [@elbows](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elbows)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2018, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/50 "2018-06-29T02:34:07Z")
That young person that just surprisingly won that seat, is a clue, I think. Donald Trump has ushered in the age of, ‘DONT have to follow the protocol!’, but I wager the existing political class is too entrenched to let go of the old ways. I think a return to that sixties idea, ‘don’t trust anyone over 40’, should be shifted to 35, and could be an easy sell these days. I honestly think any older player, of either stripe, could be easily ousted by a fresh young face, with a fresh take on government, who’s intent on change and finding new ways to make government work. People have lost faith with the old, they want people who can think differently, convinced the over 35 political class **are** the problem, and don’t have any actual answers, just more of the same on offer. All government systems are incredibly resistant to change, but sooner or later something has to give, don’t you think? Every single thing connected to government moves at a glacial pace, while everything else in people’s lives is moving at lightening speed. They might not know the answers, but I suspect they’re pretty convinced the old school folks don’t have the answers. People wanna believe, and a fresh face/view is an easier sell than just the same old faces. On both sides of the house I suspect this may be true. Worse things could happen than both sides race to put young up and comers, onto ballots, instead of old, rich, white men. People need to believe it’s a new age, not a return to what was. (Just one opinion, of course!) ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2018, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/51 "2018-06-29T03:05:31Z")
> [@elbows](#): > > …I think a return to that sixties idea, ‘don’t trust anyone over 40’, should be shifted to 35, and could be an easy sell these days. > … It was (astonishingly) “Don’t trust anyone over **30** ” ! :eek: Forty was too ancient to even be on the radar. > [@](#): > > [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack\_Weinberg](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Weinberg) > > [Jack] Weinberg is the person who coined the saying “Don’t trust anyone over 30”. The saying exists in several variants, such as “Never trust anybody over 30”. Origination of the saying has been wrongly attributed to Abbie Hoffman, Jerry Rubin, the Beatles, and others. Now I barely trust anyone under 50. ---
**Author:** ![Chisquirrel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6bbea6/32.png) [@Chisquirrel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chisquirrel)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2018, 5:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/52 "2018-06-29T05:12:06Z")
Why are all the Republicans so anxious to talk about who will be the Democratic candidate when there’s over two years until the election? ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2018, 5:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/53 "2018-06-29T05:53:38Z")
I’m not too concerned if it turns out to be Biden. I mean, seriously, have you heard who the Republican Front Runner for 2020 is? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2018, 5:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/54 "2018-06-29T05:57:13Z")
Two of the Four Horsemen have dropped out. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2018, 6:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/55 "2018-06-29T06:07:25Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I’m not too concerned if it turns out to be Biden. > > I mean, seriously, have you heard who the Republican Front Runner for 2020 is? I remember hearing this before. In 2016. Don’t you? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2018, 1:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/56 "2018-06-29T13:02:37Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > … Do I think Biden will become the nominee? Not really, I’m just surprised at this point in time he’s the front-runner. Why? Who _else_ but the biggest most well known names who have not ruled out running would the name for a pundit to bandy about and criticize? Really the only other possible person to consider for that status would be Sanders. Warren maybe a bit below. It would be different if a particular person was already being labelled the presumptive nominee, like Jeb Bush was in a crowded field. IF Biden runs he’d certainly be in top tier of choices. I’d seriously consider him. I’ll grant you your point to some degree - there is a pretty big experience, age, and national name recognition gap between the group of Sanders/Biden/Warren and the rest. Likely the nominee will be one of “the rest”, the one who ends up leading the pack of them in the first primaries. And while few are officially running yet anyone who is not already “exploring” and laying the groundwork, dancing with donors, visiting the early race states, building some infrastructure, is not going to be the nominee. It’s just way too early to have a serious discussion about it. A few months after midterms - that’s when people really start putting their chips in, the race’s field begins to take shape, and the handicapping really starts. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2018, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/57 "2018-06-29T14:34:11Z")
Hickenlooper. Duckworth. Heck, Al Gore. ---
**Author:** ![Silver\_lining](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aca169/32.png) [@Silver\_lining](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Silver_lining)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2018, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/58 "2018-06-29T14:49:30Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > There are tons of “young” Democrats likely to run for President. Tons? Who are these tons of young Democrats? Like I saidif a guy who sat out 2016 is the front runner at near 76 years of age, you’d think these tons would be forming exploratory committees. As I pointed out, Trump did so in 2013. So I guess you can show us who among the Democrats has taken this very easy step, which is often done well before someone enters a race. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2018, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/59 "2018-06-29T15:05:04Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > Tons? Who are these tons of young Democrats? Like I saidif a guy who sat out 2016 is the front runner at near 76 years of age, you’d think these tons would be forming exploratory committees. As I pointed out, Trump did so in 2013. > > So I guess you can show us who among the Democrats has taken this very easy step, which is often done well before someone enters a race. Bullshit. Most campaigns don’t start this early. Very, very few do, in fact. It’d be very out of the ordinary if multiple candidates were already starting to run, even forming “exploratory committees”, which many candidates never end up doing anyway. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2018, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/60 "2018-06-29T16:40:41Z")
FWIW the betting site [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/Market/3633/Who-will-win-the-2020-Democratic-presidential-nomination) puts Kamala Harris as the frontrunner, followed by Sanders, Biden, and Booker. Official exploratory committees rarely are up yet. Informal talks with potential large … allies, visits to Iowa, just coincidentally, yes. Look for those signs over the next few months. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921.md?page=4)