# The Democratic Front Runner for 2020 Presidential race is: **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 28, 2018, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921 "2018-06-28T15:04:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2018, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/61 "2018-06-29T16:44:01Z")
Al Gore is younger than trump and would have a fairly unique distinction of having sought the presidency in three decades. ---
**Author:** ![DSYoungEsq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c6cbf5/32.png) [@DSYoungEsq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSYoungEsq)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2018, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/62 "2018-06-29T16:55:36Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I’m not too concerned if it turns out to be Biden. > > I mean, seriously, have you heard who the Republican Front Runner for 2020 is? The front-runner happens to be a person who already won once, and is the incumbent (which is always an advantage). If Democrats spend one more election cycle acting like Trump is such a horrible candidate anyone can beat him, they’ll lose the 2020 election too. :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2018, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/63 "2018-06-29T17:02:14Z")
You did it! You blamed the Democrats for Trump! Way to go! ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2018, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/64 "2018-06-29T18:11:00Z")
I absolutely blame the Democrats for Trump. If someone leaves the door to your house open and a bear gets in and fucks everything up, who do you really get angrier at? The bear, or the person who left the door open? In this case, there were signs posted warning about bears, there was a news bulletin about bears in the area, there were motion detector cameras recording non-stop footage of bears, fucking John Irving came down from New Hampshire and held a rally for public awareness about bears which was attended by two million people…and they still left the door open and a fucking giant bowl of honey right in the foyer. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2018, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/65 "2018-06-29T18:25:25Z")
> [@Jacquernagy](#): > > I absolutely blame the Democrats for Trump. > > If someone leaves the door to your house open and a bear gets in and fucks everything up, who do you really get angrier at? The bear, or the person who left the door open? > > In this case, there were signs posted warning about bears, there was a news bulletin about bears in the area, there were motion detector cameras recording non-stop footage of bears, fucking John Irving came down from New Hampshire and held a rally for public awareness about bears which was attended by two million people…and they still left the door open and a fucking giant bowl of honey right in the foyer. Democrats that didn’t show up to vote, or voted for someone other than Clinton in the general election, deserve some of the blame. But the vast majority goes to those who chose to vote for and support Trump. They’re not bears, they’re people with the power to make a choice, and it was their choices, more than anything, that brought us Trump. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2018, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/66 "2018-06-29T18:28:56Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > You did it! You blamed the Democrats for Trump! Way to go! Whether he did or not, he’s right that assuming Trump is such a bad candidate that anyone can win against him is a losing strategy. Clinton (barely) lost to him, and now he has the inertia of being an incumbent, which only makes him stronger. I don’t think Biden is a great choice because he’s hard to get fired up about. I think we need someone who can message well to bring in the millennials and younger, but also understands that we can’t divide the party. And we cannot afford to leave out the white working class–though we must stay strong on our anti-bigotry principles. Now, who that would actually be, I don’t know. But I’m not too worried about that, as I never have any idea this far out. Part of the purpose of the primaries is to find out who fits. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2018, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/67 "2018-06-29T19:01:29Z")
Part of the reason why it _might_ be hard for people to get fired up about him is that people just don’t really _know_ much about him. As Obama’s VP, he was pretty low-key. 8 years of Bush had gotten America used to seeing and hearing about the VP (Cheney) almost as much as the actual president (and when it came to negative perception, probably _more_ than the actual president.) Mike Pence isn’t exactly comparable to Cheney because he’s more of a stooge than a puppeteer, but Pence is very much in the spotlight as well. During Obama’s term, Biden seems like he avoided the spotlight, and outside of the satirical _Onion_ articles and the “creepy Joe” image pushed by his opponents, Biden was just sort of a gray man. Now, if Biden were to campaign his ass off or even just release a few very well-made videos that were both pointed _and_ humorous, people would “know” him a lot better. I think one huge lesson from Trump’s success was the idea of a candidate resonating with people on a personal and emotional level, and the idea that this is maybe more important in getting them elected than their policy stances. I know people are probably sick and tired of talking about Sanders at this point, but it needs to be said that his campaign generated the same kind of enthusiasm. I think Joe Biden possesses that kind of personality. I remember when people collectively nodded in approval when Biden announced that he’d like to take Trump out behind the gym and kick his ass. Imagine if Biden was saying stuff like that every week? And it wouldn’t need to all be negative and adversarial stuff either - he could accomplish the same thing with positive messages, if he delivered them with moxie. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2018, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/68 "2018-06-29T21:20:37Z")
As Sanders showed, what Democrats need is to offer something of value to the voters. Republicans offer their voters tangible things, like giving rich people the freedom to keep more of their money. They also promise to protect _their_ America. The problem for Democrats is that for years they’ve been afraid of the socialist label. They allowed Repubs to beat them over the head with it, to the point where they’re even afraid to talk about things like $15 / hour minimum wages. Bernie Sanders was popular because he made it okay to start talking about what government can provide to people. He’s offering real shit: free college, $15 an hour minimum, and other stuff as well. Call it socialism - he doesn’t give a crap. He’s pushing the conversation and forcing people to question themselves: is “social” capitalism really that bad? He’s not afraid of losing donations from Cigna or Citi, because he never wanted their money to begin with. Hillary Clinton and the Democrats entered the 2016 race believing they could win paying lip service to people with the assumption that progressives would ultimately see how repulsive her opponent was and that they’d have no choice but to vote for her. That’s apparent in her decision to ignore traditionally blue states, but that was a miscalculation. Not just by her but by the party. I think we’re going to see more progressive candidates coming out and talking about spreading the wealth, and it’s going to drive fascist Republicans batshit insane. But it will have the effect of making everyone in the center re-think the relationship between government and taxpayers. And I think it’s needed. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2018, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/69 "2018-06-30T00:52:27Z")
Just for the fun of it I looked up when some other candidates announced exploratory committees. [Obama](http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/01/16/obama.papers/) Jan 2007, [Romney](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/04/whats-an-exploratory-committee/237309/) April 2011 and most others that cycle in the March April time period. [Trump’s](https://www.cnn.com/2015/03/18/politics/donald-trump-2016-elections-exploratory-committee/index.html) was actually in March 2015. In 2013 the exploration was about a possible run for NY governor. It’s simply too early for that step. [Here](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/if-you-want-to-know-whos-running-in-2020-watch-capitol-hill-not-iowa/) and earlier [here](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-7-signs-that-someone-might-be-running-for-president-in-2020/) are simple guides from 538 about what signs to look for this early on. The first link is more recent and discusses how they position themselves doing their current work, the other evaluates seven signs: > [@](#): > > 1. Making at least one visit to Iowa for a political event; > 2. Making at least one visit to New Hampshire for a political event (We should note here that this story would not be possible without the work of Eric Appleman, a journalist who runs a site called Democracy in Action that since 2001 has tracked nearly every appearance that a prospective or declared candidate has made to Iowa and New Hampshire.); > 3. Making at least one visit to South Carolina for a political event; > 4. Participating in an interview for at least one feature story in any of a few large national magazines that are followed by political junkies2; > 5. Making at least one campaign appearance — outside of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina — for his or her party’s candidates for governor or U.S. Senate; > 6. Releasing a book in the time between the 2012 elections and the 2014 midterms or reaching an agreement to write a book that would be released during the campaign cycle; > 7. Being included in at least one early national poll of the race that was conducted by either media outlets or polling companies. Hit a few and you may be running for president. The exploratory committee is a late sign, a lagging indicator. ---
**Author:** ![Roderick\_Femm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/roderick_femm/32/14875_2.png) [@Roderick\_Femm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Roderick_Femm)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2018, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/70 "2018-06-30T01:00:53Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > As Sanders showed, what Democrats need is to offer something of value to the voters. Republicans offer their voters tangible things, like giving rich people the freedom to keep more of their money. They also promise to protect _their_ America. The problem for Democrats is that for years they’ve been afraid of the socialist label. They allowed Repubs to beat them over the head with it, to the point where they’re even afraid to talk about things like $15 / hour minimum wages. > > Bernie Sanders was popular because he made it okay to start talking about what government can provide to people. He’s offering real shit: free college, $15 an hour minimum, and other stuff as well. Call it socialism - he doesn’t give a crap. He’s pushing the conversation and forcing people to question themselves: is “social” capitalism really that bad? He’s not afraid of losing donations from Cigna or Citi, because he never wanted their money to begin with. Hillary Clinton and the Democrats entered the 2016 race believing they could win paying lip service to people with the assumption that progressives would ultimately see how repulsive her opponent was and that they’d have no choice but to vote for her. That’s apparent in her decision to ignore traditionally blue states, but that was a miscalculation. Not just by her but by the party. > > I think we’re going to see more progressive candidates coming out and talking about spreading the wealth, and it’s going to drive fascist Republicans batshit insane. But it will have the effect of making everyone in the center re-think the relationship between government and taxpayers. And I think it’s needed. This. There’s a good conversation to be had here if we leave aside speculation about who is the frontrunner or who is likely to win the nomination. The Democrats desperately need someone who can be coherent off the cuff, who can speak the unspeakable in a good cause, who can go toe to toe with 45 without losing his cool in any sense (no eye rolls, no smirks, no snarkiness, just hard facts and data and dead calm) and also be firm and assertive when the BS begins. Not Bernie, because he looks and speaks like the stereotypical old nut case. Not Al Gore, he puts people to sleep. Not Michelle Obama because we don’t need a dynasty, no matter how attractive. It needs to be someone dynamic and challenging, but not too scripted or committee-made. I don’t know if there is such a person, but 45 has changed the game enough that what the Democrats have put forward before isn’t going to work now. Democratic candidates also have to stop taking their constituencies for granted. If they want minorities to vote for them they have to respect them enough to fight for their votes. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2018, 1:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/71 "2018-06-30T01:15:53Z")
A friend on FB posted today that she would like to see Michael Avenatti as a candidate. Here’s my response to her: I definitely like the idea of an Italian-American President as we have obviously never had one before. He has also competed professionally in auto racing; he actually placed 7th in the 2015 Le Mans 24-hour endurance race, believe it or not. For him to be taken seriously as a candidate he needs to spend the next two years working very publically on various projects that will get his name out there to be associated with someone other than “Stormy Daniels’ lawyer.” If he ran against Trump, Trump would (obviously) fight really, really dirty to try to tarnish his image and just generally throw him off his game. He apparently had a very nasty divorce last year, and if he’s a high-flying lawyer/race car driver, he probably has a closet full of women - obviously, Trump does too, and in worse ways, but that’s something that could potentially be thrown at him. The concept of pot calling the kettle black does NOT EXIST in the mind of Donald Trump, so if he dug up any dirt on Avenatti regarding his marriage, or accusations of ANY kind of sexual licentiousness or big-ego behavior that might skirt the law in some way, they will be thrown at him hard. What he needs to do is NOT APOLOGIZE FOR ANYTHING and just dig in and not even comment, if possible. Apparently he had a custody battle over their kids - this is absolutely something that Trump would use against him. There is nothing the guy won’t do to win. I could easily see him taunting Avenatti about his divorce, the fact that his wife changed the locks on her house and tried to have him arrested, etc. That’s the kind of thing that can rattle someone to the core, and anyone going up against Trump cannot ever appear to be rattled. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2018, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/72 "2018-06-30T01:37:02Z")
> [@Jacquernagy](#): > > …Michael Avenatti as a candidate… No. _Fucking!_ Way. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2018, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/73 "2018-06-30T01:40:22Z")
I thought the same thing at first, but the more I pondered it, the more I thought it might actually work. Never, ever, ever underestimate the power of sheer novelty. People are _desperate_ for candidates who are different. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2018, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/74 "2018-06-30T03:26:23Z")
People are idiots. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2018, 5:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/75 "2018-06-30T05:13:48Z")
One thing is clear, though. The Republicans are now desperate. They have spent years and millions of dollars building strategies to defeat Hillary Clinton: now they have no plan because their next opponent will not be someone they already know how to go up against. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2018, 6:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/76 "2018-06-30T06:54:12Z")
That line of thinking makes no sense to me. Their plan is to run the incumbent president, who almost always wins. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2018, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/77 "2018-06-30T13:26:22Z")
Speaking for myself, I do _not_ want someone exciting. Trump is exciting. I want a nice, boring, conventional President. ---
**Author:** ![Silver\_lining](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aca169/32.png) [@Silver\_lining](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Silver_lining)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2018, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/78 "2018-06-30T14:10:02Z")
> [@eschereal](#): > > One thing is clear, though. The Republicans are now desperate. They have spent years and millions of dollars building strategies to defeat Hillary Clinton: now they have no plan because their next opponent will not be someone they already know how to go up against. How can a political party that has the Presidency, both Houses in Congress, and a chance to shape the Supreme court for decades be desperate? If you listen to the Bill Maher’s of the word, a man on record saying he hopes the economy tanks and people lose their jobs just to help the Democrats in 2018, its the other way around. Whomever the next opponent is, I don’t think he or she will be as famous as Clinton and raise money as quickly. ---
**Author:** ![BlankSlate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blankslate/32/80_2.png) [@BlankSlate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlankSlate)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2018, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/79 "2018-06-30T16:02:54Z")
It’s a virtual certainty that Trump will sabotage himself by tanking the economy with his idiotic, bumbling, amateur attempts to make “deals.” Whoever the Dems nominate in 2020 will win in a cakewalk. No doubt about. Trump is _that_ incompetent. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2018, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/80 "2018-06-30T16:28:18Z")
If the Republicans win again in 2020, the Democratic front runner for 2024 will be the sitting governor of California, Gavin Newsom (that’s two predictions in one). He might actually pull off the impossible-- a “San Francisco liberal” winning the White House. I thought for sure he had killed his chances way back when he was mayor of SF and he started allowing Same Sex Marriages, contrary to state law. But my how the times have changed!! Or, who knows. Maybe he’ll be the VP candidate in 2020. Could he maybe _even run at the top of the ticket that year???_ I have no doubt he’s been planning his way to the presidency for many, many years and 2020 might be just the right time, other than that he’ll have been in Sacramento as governor for such a short period of time. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921.md?page=5)