# The Democratic Front Runner for 2020 Presidential race is: **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 28, 2018, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921 "2018-06-28T15:04:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 4\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![OldGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/3bc359/32.png) [@OldGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2018, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/121 "2018-08-09T03:03:58Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Only five people are shown with a significant chance: Warren, Harris, Sanders, Biden and the front-runner with a 39% of winning a 2nd term, von Clownstick himself. > > Truth is stranger than fiction. I can’t get the page to load, but doesn’t this mean that there’s a 61% chance that the as yet unknown Democratic candidate beats him? ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2018, 5:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/122 "2018-08-09T05:57:09Z")
> [@OldGuy](#): > > I can’t get the page to load, but doesn’t this mean that there’s a 61% chance that the as yet unknown Democratic candidate beats him? I think the odds are based on the betting: the more interest there is in a candidate, the closer to 1:1 their odds move on the exchange. Just like with every other type of turf-accountancy. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2018, 8:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/123 "2018-08-09T08:59:25Z")
It may still be too early to take prediction markets seriously. (Though I’d think that if, e.g., a ‘Draft McRaven’ movement were developing it would be visible.) And I’ve no idea how the financial particulars at Betfair work. If players need to tie up funds in escrow until November 2020 there is strong reason NOT to lay against a long-shot. > [@septimus](#): > > [Betfair also takes bets on the **November** 2020 election.](https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128151441) Only five people are shown with a significant chance: Warren, Harris, Sanders, Biden and the front-runner with a 39% of winning a 2nd term, von Clownstick himself. > > Truth is stranger than fiction. I’ve bolded a word above to help address the following question. > [@eschereal](#): > > As a Democrat? _November_ is the _general_ election where the Democratic nominee will be pitted against the criminal/hypocrite/racist. > [@OldGuy](#): > > I can’t get the page to load, but doesn’t this mean that there’s a 61% chance that the as yet unknown Democratic candidate beats him? As a separate wager, they show ‘Winning Party’ as 51/49 in favor of D. As yet another wager, 'Gender of Next President is 36+% to be Female. Pence has about a 2% chance of winning the 2020 election, according to the betting. (I’m afraid the true chance is much higher.) They also [offer a market to pick the GOP nominee](https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128999265). The “bid-ask” spreads can be quite large. Donald Trump to be GOP nominee? 1.36/1.38 are what you get for immediate action, corresponding to 73.5% and 72.5% probabilities — a reasonable spread; but Mike Pence is 9 to back , 30 to lay — 11.1% and 3.3%; and John Kasich is 16 to back, 500 to lay — 6.2% and 0.2%. I don’t know why the page won’t load — can you get to the Betfair home page? ---
**Author:** ![ohiomstr2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/82dd89/32.png) [@ohiomstr2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ohiomstr2)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2018, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921/124 "2018-08-09T16:14:47Z")
I am not a fan of either party since both are pretty clearly more interested in the welfare of their sponsors. It would be interesting to see a widely available list of each of their donors (not individual citizens for obvious privacy and safety issues). That being said, I have almost always voted as a Democrat because they seem to be more in favor of progressive policy. My major beef with the party is that they fail to reach out to the economically and politically disadvantaged folks who seem to make up Mr Trump’s “base”. Instead of showing these folks how “liberal” ideas and programs benefit them in a way that does not demeen them, there is a tendency toward attacking individual Republican candidates. Stop treating Mr Trump’s supporters as idiots, show them how progressive programs benefit them, pay attention to and respond to their genuine concerns. I am not talking about the extremists, I am talking about the person in a small town who percieves their tax dollars being spent on cities while the road to their house is crumbling into rubble. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democratic-front-runner-for-2020-presidential-race-is/816921.md?page=6)