# The democrats abandoning gun control will not help them win the votes of rural whites **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 13, 2019, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democrats-abandoning-gun-control-will-not-help-them-win-the-votes-of-rural-whites/829504 "2019-02-13T22:40:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2019, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democrats-abandoning-gun-control-will-not-help-them-win-the-votes-of-rural-whites/829504/81 "2019-02-25T01:30:52Z")
> [@DMC](#): > > I’m glad you brought data to back that up. Oh, you didn’t? > > I did. > > [There is a strong correlation between per capita gun ownership by state and per capita gun deaths by state.](https://www.motherjones.com/wp-content/uploads/gun-ownership-vs-gun-deaths_2.png) > > I’ll let you and **DrDeth** tell us if that relationship is based on murders, suicides, accidents, or some combination of the above. Bogus stats. and bogus conclusion, based upon it. Look, yes, in states with more guns, there tends to be more _gun_ suicides. But not _more suicides_. So, more guns do not = more suicides. ---
**Author:** ![Littleman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ccd318/32.png) [@Littleman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Littleman)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2019, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democrats-abandoning-gun-control-will-not-help-them-win-the-votes-of-rural-whites/829504/82 "2019-02-25T01:45:02Z")
> [@DMC](#): > > I’m glad you brought data to back that up. Oh, you didn’t? > > I did. > > [There is a strong correlation between per capita gun ownership by state and per capita gun deaths by state.](https://www.motherjones.com/wp-content/uploads/gun-ownership-vs-gun-deaths_2.png) > > I’ll let you and **DrDeth** tell us if that relationship is based on murders, suicides, accidents, or some combination of the above. States with most guns > **[U.S. - number of registered weapons by state 2021 | Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/215655/number-of-registered-weapons-in-the-us-by-state/)** > > Texas was the state with the highest number of registered weapons in the United States in 2021, with 1,006,555 firearms. States with most sucides [https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/population-health/us-states-ranked-by-suicide-rate.html](https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/population-health/us-states-ranked-by-suicide-rate.html) Oh no! There’s no correlation… Yep more guns mean more gun deaths …they don’t mean higher homicides, suicides, or even premature deaths in general. Guess we have to take the hard route and look at actual causal factors instead of the scary guns scapegoat. ---
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2019, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democrats-abandoning-gun-control-will-not-help-them-win-the-votes-of-rural-whites/829504/83 "2019-02-25T02:05:07Z")
> [@Littleman](#): > > States with most guns > [U.S. - number of registered weapons by state 2021 | Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/215655/number-of-registered-weapons-in-the-us-by-state/) > > States with most sucides > [US states ranked by suicide rate](https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/population-health/us-states-ranked-by-suicide-rate.html) > Oh no! There’s no correlation… > Yep more guns mean more gun deaths …they don’t mean higher homicides, suicides, or even premature deaths in general. > > Guess we have to take the hard route and look at actual causal factors instead of the scary guns scapegoat. Giving me two links and claiming no correlation is lazy as fuck. Also, total gun count doesn’t really mean shit as one doesn’t need all 50 guns stashed under their pillow to blow their brains out when a single gun will do just fine. So, let’s do some actual correlation, without just tossing feces at the wall as you are doing. [Correlation between gun ownership rates and all methods of suicide](https://public.tableau.com/profile/dmc7541#!/vizhome/GunSuicideCorrelation/Sheet1) Hell, I’ll calculate the PPMCC if you really want. ---
**Author:** ![Littleman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ccd318/32.png) [@Littleman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Littleman)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2019, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democrats-abandoning-gun-control-will-not-help-them-win-the-votes-of-rural-whites/829504/84 "2019-02-25T02:31:24Z")
Wow , cited yourself…lol Call me convinced ---
**Author:** ![Littleman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ccd318/32.png) [@Littleman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Littleman)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2019, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democrats-abandoning-gun-control-will-not-help-them-win-the-votes-of-rural-whites/829504/85 "2019-02-25T02:38:02Z")
Based on a survey with a sample size of 4000 nationally, no less, that’s some pretty serious extrapolation there. ---
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2019, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democrats-abandoning-gun-control-will-not-help-them-win-the-votes-of-rural-whites/829504/86 "2019-02-25T02:50:22Z")
> [@Littleman](#): > > Wow , cited yourself…lol > Call me convinced I didn’t cite myself. I did the actual analysis, graphed it and published it. I even documented my data sources for both measures. ---
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2019, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democrats-abandoning-gun-control-will-not-help-them-win-the-votes-of-rural-whites/829504/87 "2019-02-25T02:51:31Z")
> [@Littleman](#): > > Based on a survey with a sample size of 4000 nationally, no less, that’s some pretty serious extrapolation there. Since your previous post already showed your lack of expertise in statistical analysis (for fuck sake, you used per capita in one measure and raw counts in the other), I’m not going to waste my time educating you on sample size sufficiency, but what I will do is happily use whatever source of actual data you want for the ownership rates. 50 states, 50 numbers between 0 and 100. That’s all I need and I’ll redraw the same chart. So, which gun ownership source would you like for me to use? ---
**Author:** ![Littleman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ccd318/32.png) [@Littleman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Littleman)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2019, 3:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democrats-abandoning-gun-control-will-not-help-them-win-the-votes-of-rural-whites/829504/88 "2019-02-25T03:43:41Z")
> **[What Is Gun Ownership Like on a State by State Basis?](https://www.thoughtco.com/gun-owners-percentage-of-state-populations-3325153)** > > Find out which state has the highest rate of gun ownership and learn why it's so difficult to get a precise total of guns in the U.S. No need, just look at the top 5 Virgina #35 per capita suicide rate, #5 per capita gun ownership. DC #2 per capita gun ownership, #51 per capita suicide rate New Hampshire #3 PC gun ownership, #18 pc Suicide rate Wyoming and new Mexico would be somewhat in the right neighborhood but your chart already looks like a blob rather than a line at this point. ---
**Author:** ![Littleman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ccd318/32.png) [@Littleman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Littleman)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2019, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democrats-abandoning-gun-control-will-not-help-them-win-the-votes-of-rural-whites/829504/89 "2019-02-25T03:58:50Z")
Btw those numbers are based in actual registration according to the ATF , not some miniscule survey of 80 people per state . ---
**Author:** ![bubba001](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/f17d59/32.png) [@bubba001](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bubba001)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2019, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democrats-abandoning-gun-control-will-not-help-them-win-the-votes-of-rural-whites/829504/90 "2019-02-25T04:20:23Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Its an argument a lot of people seem to be making. “If democrats abandon gun control, then rural whites will be more open to the party”. > > I disagree. > > For one thing, gun control is fairly popular. > > [NPR Poll: After Parkland, Number of Americans Who Want Gun Restrictions Grows : NPR](https://www.npr.org/2018/03/02/589849342/npr-poll-after-parkland-number-of-americans-who-want-gun-restrictions-grows) > > But more importantly, guns are a symptom of something else. They are a symptom of white people who fear multiculturalism. > > [Racism, Gun Ownership and Gun Control: Biased Attitudes in US Whites May Influence Policy Decisions - PMC](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3815007/) > > [https://splinternews.com/the-simple-surprising-factor-that-explains-america-s-g-1793860212](https://splinternews.com/the-simple-surprising-factor-that-explains-america-s-g-1793860212) > > Whites who find multiculturalism threatening cling to guns because their America is dying. The America they feel they know (a white christian patriarchy of native born people) is changing and America is rapidly becoming browner, more secular, more muslim, more feminist, more immigrant, etc. They are attached to guns because guns help them feel safe in a world where they feel their national identity and sense of privilege is going away. Plus guns help them feel safe in a world full of scary out-groups (latino immigrant street criminals. Black urban street criminals. Foreign muslim terrorists. Liberal government. etc). > > The democratic party is the party that embraces multiculturalism. The republican party is the party that rejects multiculturalism. Even if the democrats abandon gun control, everyone still knows the democrats are the pro-multiculturalism party. So why would abandoning gun control make these people like the democrats when the main reason they cling to guns is because they find pro-democratic policies threatening? > > Basically saying 'I support changing America into something that makes you feel threatened, but I also support your right to own a gun to keep yourself safe from the threats our party is visiting on you" is not a winning argument. But thats the argument people are making for why the democrats should abandon gun control. > > FWIW I’m not saying all whites who own guns are racist. But its a major factor in hostility to gun control among whites. I’m a liberal gun owner and I know lots of liberals who oppose gun control because they feel they need guns to keep themselves safe from the rise of neo-fascism. And there are people who need guns to deal with hunting animals or dealing with threatening feral animals. Or people who need them because they live in areas the police don’t patrol well or they can’t trust the police. So I’m not saying owning a gun = racist. But its a major factor. But having said that, these people wouldn’t be affected by most forms of gun control anyway. > > For me personally I don’t even know where I stand on gun control. I feel unless we confiscate the 300+ million guns already out there, gun control won’t make much of a difference. And that’ll never happen. The virginia tech shooter had a pistol and regular magazines. > > However the 1934 gun control act made getting fully automatic weapons, among other things, hard to get. So if we passed strict gun control on a national level it may make a difference, but not for several decades (when the current guns are trashed and you can’t buy new ones). One thing I see is that some of my neighbors ran out and bought pistols when the concealed carry law was loosened up in Michigan. I was asked to help a neighbor get some drywall from Lowe’s. He made a big show putting his gun on. I was laughing my ass off. He didn’t like my comments, but I talked to him about a year later, he hadn’t carried his pistol in quite awhile. It was like a status symbol. And the novelty wore off. I know of 2 other locals, after awhile, carrying 3 or 4 pounds of pistol and accessories got old. A lot of eye rolling from wives, also. ---
**Author:** ![Isamu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/7c8e57/32.png) [@Isamu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Isamu)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2019, 4:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democrats-abandoning-gun-control-will-not-help-them-win-the-votes-of-rural-whites/829504/91 "2019-02-25T04:32:24Z")
If you compare states where guns are legal and in large supply, to other states where, ha-ha, guns are also legal and in large supply, you are doing comparison wrong. Try comparing countries with virtually few guns with countries (or states!) with relatively many guns. There are some outliers but if you do anough comparisons the overall trend is very clear with regard to gun deaths or gun klillings (whichever you want to discuss). ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2019, 6:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democrats-abandoning-gun-control-will-not-help-them-win-the-votes-of-rural-whites/829504/92 "2019-02-25T06:19:08Z")
> [@Isamu](#): > > If you compare states where guns are legal and in large supply, to other states where, ha-ha, guns are also legal and in large supply, you are doing comparison wrong. > > Try comparing countries with virtually few guns with countries (or states!) with relatively many guns. There are some outliers but if you do anough comparisons the overall trend is very clear with regard to gun deaths or gun klillings (whichever you want to discuss). See, that’s the point. “gun deaths” or “gun killings” is bogus. Look, you can look at "gun suicides’ and see places with more guns have more gun suicides. Not always, but there is some correlation. BUT, and this is the critical point- the places with more guns \*don’t have more suicides. \* So yeah, if there are a lot of guns, more people will choose a gun to kill themselves (which I feel is their right). But in places with more guns, more people dont choose to kill themselves. In places with almost no guns, like Japan, they just choose another way to kill themselves. Reducing guns won’t reduce suicides. ---
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2019, 6:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democrats-abandoning-gun-control-will-not-help-them-win-the-votes-of-rural-whites/829504/93 "2019-02-25T06:51:47Z")
> [@Littleman](#): > > [A Look at Gun Ownership by State](https://www.thoughtco.com/gun-owners-percentage-of-state-populations-3325153) > > No need, just look at the top 5 > > Virgina #35 per capita suicide rate, #5 per capita gun ownership. > > DC #2 per capita gun ownership, #51 per capita suicide rate > > New Hampshire #3 PC gun ownership, #18 pc Suicide rate > > Wyoming and new Mexico would be somewhat in the right neighborhood but your chart already looks like a blob rather than a line at this point. The above analysis has a FTAS[sup]1[/sup] of 9000 and a LOE[sup]2[/sup] of 0. My chart had a PPMCC of 0.47 with a p-value \< 0.0001. So, while you might think it looks like a blob, it’s anything but. While the data you provided has issues, as it’s simply based on a count of the number of registered firearms and doesn’t speak to the distribution thereof (if a single micropenis in Texas had all 588,696 firearms, the output would be the same as what you provided), it still shows correlation. PPMCC of 0.25 with a p-value \< 0.0002. [I can do this all day](https://public.tableau.com/profile/dmc7541#!/vizhome/Correlationbetweenregisteredgunspercapitaandsuicide/GunsPerCapitacrappymethod) [sup]1[/sup]Feces Tossing Accuracy Score [sup]2[/sup]Level of Effort ---
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2019, 7:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democrats-abandoning-gun-control-will-not-help-them-win-the-votes-of-rural-whites/829504/94 "2019-02-25T07:54:43Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Look, you can look at "gun suicides’ and see places with more guns have more gun suicides. Not always, but there is some correlation. BUT, and this is the critical point- the places with more guns \*don’t have more suicides. \* [Au contraire, states with a higher percentage of gun ownership have a higher incidence of suicides. Not gun suicide. Suicide. Period.](https://public.tableau.com/profile/dmc7541#!/vizhome/GunSuicideCorrelation/Sheet1) ---
**Author:** ![Littleman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ccd318/32.png) [@Littleman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Littleman)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2019, 12:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democrats-abandoning-gun-control-will-not-help-them-win-the-votes-of-rural-whites/829504/95 "2019-02-25T12:34:22Z")
Right because a survey of 80 People per state , less than one per county is far more reflective than actual registrations. ---
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2019, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democrats-abandoning-gun-control-will-not-help-them-win-the-votes-of-rural-whites/829504/96 "2019-02-26T00:43:18Z")
> [@Littleman](#): > > Right because a survey of 80 People per state , less than one per county is far more reflective than actual registrations. Dude, I used the data that YOU provided[sup]_[/sup] in a response directly to you and there is still correlation. Put down the shovel. [sup]_[/sup]As noted the data that you gave me has plenty of issues, but hey, apparently there are only about 5 million firearms in the US. Who knew? ---
**Author:** ![Littleman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ccd318/32.png) [@Littleman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Littleman)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2019, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democrats-abandoning-gun-control-will-not-help-them-win-the-votes-of-rural-whites/829504/97 "2019-02-26T01:37:14Z")
> [@DMC](#): > > Dude, I used the data that YOU provided[sup]_[/sup] in a response directly to you and there is still correlation. Put down the shovel. > [sup]_[/sup]As noted the data that you gave me has plenty of issues, but hey, apparently there are only about 5 million firearms in the US. Who knew? Are you counting 2 states as a correlation? ---
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2019, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democrats-abandoning-gun-control-will-not-help-them-win-the-votes-of-rural-whites/829504/98 "2019-02-26T01:49:29Z")
> [@Littleman](#): > > Are you counting 2 states as a correlation? No. Before I waste any more time, can you give me your understanding of the term correlation as you are using it? I’m starting to feel like Inigo Montoya. ---
**Author:** ![Littleman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ccd318/32.png) [@Littleman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Littleman)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2019, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democrats-abandoning-gun-control-will-not-help-them-win-the-votes-of-rural-whites/829504/99 "2019-02-26T02:05:10Z")
That would be a consistent rise in overall suicide rates In states which have a higher rate of gun ownership. Which, would create a chart like your first one. Not a crescent ish vertical line with a few outliers. Which is textbook non-correlation. So far almost every post you’ve made has been a deliberate attempt at misleading with semantics, or am attempt to cause your audience to conflate terms. I’m not playing word games, the data just does not consistently support your theory. National Research Counsel says what we’ve been telling you almost word for word. " States, regions, and countries with higher rates of household gun ownership have higher rates of gun suicide. There is also cross-sectional, ecological association between gun ownership and overall risk of suicide, but this association is more modest than the association between gun ownership and gun suicide; it is less consistently observed across time, place, and persons; and the causal relation remains unclear." But if you claim to be a better analyst than all of theirs, you’ve got a big hill to climb to prove that. ---
**Author:** ![Littleman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ccd318/32.png) [@Littleman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Littleman)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2019, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democrats-abandoning-gun-control-will-not-help-them-win-the-votes-of-rural-whites/829504/100 "2019-02-26T02:08:18Z")
What I will give you is a wait period, though unconstitutional, actually made sense. Studies do show many people purchase a gun for the purpose of suicide and that they are more likely to carry it out if done immediately. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democrats-abandoning-gun-control-will-not-help-them-win-the-votes-of-rural-whites/829504.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-democrats-abandoning-gun-control-will-not-help-them-win-the-votes-of-rural-whites/829504.md?page=6)