# The Dems will sweep into power in both the House and the Senate as well as the Presidency **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 10, 2016, 1:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-dems-will-sweep-into-power-in-both-the-house-and-the-senate-as-well-as-the-presidency/754482 "2016-05-10T13:09:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2016, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-dems-will-sweep-into-power-in-both-the-house-and-the-senate-as-well-as-the-presidency/754482/101 "2016-06-18T02:31:55Z")
Oh yeah, there are others, but McCain is unlikely to fall. I also forgot Ayotte in NH. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2016, 4:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-dems-will-sweep-into-power-in-both-the-house-and-the-senate-as-well-as-the-presidency/754482/102 "2016-06-18T04:49:59Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > … but McCain is unlikely to fall. I also forgot Ayotte in NH. Really? Unlikely? It’s been a toss-up and last poll (PPP) has [Kirkpatrick up 2](https://www.scribd.com/doc/315391863/MoveOn-AZ-Survey-Results) over McCain. And of note his Trump endorsement has apparently hurt him. Specifically among the 16% who are not sure how they will vote the endorsement has made only 14% more likely and 44% less likely to support him. [Ayotte](http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-hampshire-ayotte-vs-hassan) is also currently running even with a long race to go. If these races continue to be close then they are precisely the ones in which the possible impacts of Trump matters. “Only” a few points one way or the other would be decisive in virtually tied contests. ---
**Author:** ![digs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/digs/32/14889_2.png) [@digs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/digs)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2016, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-dems-will-sweep-into-power-in-both-the-house-and-the-senate-as-well-as-the-presidency/754482/103 "2016-06-20T14:43:25Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > And McCain is unclear. I’ve noticed that, too. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2016, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-dems-will-sweep-into-power-in-both-the-house-and-the-senate-as-well-as-the-presidency/754482/104 "2016-06-20T16:18:35Z")
Is there any chance McCain will lose his primary? ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2016, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-dems-will-sweep-into-power-in-both-the-house-and-the-senate-as-well-as-the-presidency/754482/105 "2016-06-20T16:24:08Z")
The FiveThirtyEight view: [The GOP’s House Majority Is Safe…Right?](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-house-majority-is-safe-right/) (TL;DR answer: Almost certainly, but the Dems are set to take back a lot of seats.) ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2016, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-dems-will-sweep-into-power-in-both-the-house-and-the-senate-as-well-as-the-presidency/754482/106 "2016-07-07T17:12:32Z")
I just want to bump this, as I’m feeling more and more confident in my prediction. The GOP seems to be steamrollering into catastrophe, and picking up speed on the down hill slope. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2016, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-dems-will-sweep-into-power-in-both-the-house-and-the-senate-as-well-as-the-presidency/754482/107 "2016-07-07T17:48:25Z")
Perhaps, but all the money is going to defend Congress and the initial polling looks pretty good. First generic poll showed a tie, which means GOP advantage historically. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2016, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-dems-will-sweep-into-power-in-both-the-house-and-the-senate-as-well-as-the-presidency/754482/108 "2016-07-07T18:00:58Z")
The House is so tough. It is not impossible, though, which is amazing in itself. It certainly helps that no alternative Republican ticket has emerged, as it therefore seems likely that many Republicans will stay home. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2016, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-dems-will-sweep-into-power-in-both-the-house-and-the-senate-as-well-as-the-presidency/754482/109 "2016-07-07T20:18:41Z")
I hope you’re right, but I’m very skeptical that the House will flip, even with a Clinton landslide. The Republicans just have such a big built in advantage. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2016, 2:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-dems-will-sweep-into-power-in-both-the-house-and-the-senate-as-well-as-the-presidency/754482/110 "2016-07-08T14:13:04Z")
And a historic lead. Just too many seats to flip. I’d also note that coattails are hard to predict. You know how many seats the GOP won in 1984 when Reagan crushed Mondale? Bupkus. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2016, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-dems-will-sweep-into-power-in-both-the-house-and-the-senate-as-well-as-the-presidency/754482/111 "2016-07-11T15:58:54Z")
Evan Bayh (D-IN) announced that he will run for election to the Senate this year. He retired a cycle ago but has polled well since, remained popular, has over $9mil in his campaign account and apparently sees himself returning to public life. Election prognosticators are moving Indiana from a “Likely Republican” to “Toss-Up”. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2016, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-dems-will-sweep-into-power-in-both-the-house-and-the-senate-as-well-as-the-presidency/754482/112 "2016-07-11T16:46:59Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > And a historic lead. Just too many seats to flip. I’d also note that coattails are hard to predict. You know how many seats the GOP won in 1984 when Reagan crushed Mondale? Bupkus. Is “16” the same quantity as “Bupkus”? I did not know that. > **[1984 United States House of Representatives elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1984)** > > Tip O'Neill > Democratic > Tip O'Neill > Democratic > The 1984 United States House of Representatives elections was an election for the United States House of Representatives on November 6, 1984, to elect members to serve in the 99th United States Congress. They coincided with the re-election of President Ronald Reagan in a landslide. This victory also yielded gains for Reagan's Republican Party in the House, where they picked up a net of sixteen seats from the Democratic Party. Despite Reagan's extrem... Though the Republicans did lose 2 Senate seats. ---
**Author:** ![YogSothoth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/8edcca/32.png) [@YogSothoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YogSothoth)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2016, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-dems-will-sweep-into-power-in-both-the-house-and-the-senate-as-well-as-the-presidency/754482/113 "2016-07-11T16:51:40Z")
> [@Jack\_Batty](#): > > The best thing that would come out of a result like that would Right Wing Radio. > > If that result comes to pass I will immediately set forth in my attempt record every minute of every show and then try not to die laughing at Limbaugh, Beck, Levin, Carr, Savage, et al. I also only listen to right wing radio shitheads when they suffer a big loss. When gay marriage passed, that was a fun day. When Obamacare was upheld like twice, those weeks were great to hear. I predict my radio will tuned exclusively to them the 2 weeks after the election and again after the inauguration. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2016, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-dems-will-sweep-into-power-in-both-the-house-and-the-senate-as-well-as-the-presidency/754482/114 "2016-10-10T19:16:22Z")
I’m doubling down on my prediction that the House will flip. Of course, having bet nothing, doubling down doesn’t mean much. Yet I’m more confident than ever. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2016, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-dems-will-sweep-into-power-in-both-the-house-and-the-senate-as-well-as-the-presidency/754482/115 "2016-10-10T21:18:57Z")
I’m staying hopeful, but odds are still against it. ---
**Author:** ![tim314](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tim314/32/3468_2.png) [@tim314](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tim314)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2016, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-dems-will-sweep-into-power-in-both-the-house-and-the-senate-as-well-as-the-presidency/754482/116 "2016-10-10T21:41:41Z")
> [@Boyo\_Jim](#): > > I’m doubling down on my prediction that the House will flip. Of course, having bet nothing, doubling down doesn’t mean much. Yet I’m more confident than ever. [This map](http://www.270towin.com/2016-house-election/), based on UVA Professor Larry Sabato’s projections, indicates that even if the Dems won all the “Safe Dem” races, all the “Likely Dem” races, all the “Leans Dem” races, all the “Tossup” races, and all the “Leans Repub” races, they’d _still_ fall two seats short of control of the House. (Sabato, incidentally, has been something like 98% accurate in predicting Congressional races going back to 2000.) Do you really think the Dems are likely to win all those races, plus two more? If so, care to name which two? Don’t get me wrong, I wish you were right… I’m just pretty sure you’re not. ---
**Author:** ![Folacin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/folacin/32/3195_2.png) [@Folacin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Folacin)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2016, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-dems-will-sweep-into-power-in-both-the-house-and-the-senate-as-well-as-the-presidency/754482/117 "2016-10-10T21:46:51Z")
> [@tim314](#): > > [This map](http://www.270towin.com/2016-house-election/), based on UVA Professor Larry Sabato’s projections, indicates that even if the Dems won all the “Safe Dem” races, all the “Likely Dem” races, all the “Leans Dem” races, all the “Tossup” races, and all the “Leans Repub” races, they’d _still_ fall two seats short of control of the House. (Sabato, incidentally, has been something like 98% accurate in predicting Congressional races going back to 2000.) > > Do you really think the Dems are likely to win all those races, plus two more? If so, care to name which two? > > Don’t get me wrong, I wish you were right… I’m just pretty sure you’re not. So, then the question becomes “how close do they have to get”? If the House is controlled by only 4 or 5 votes, will Speaker Ryan be able to herd all of the cats to prevent votes on any bills passed by the (presumably) Democratic controlled Senate? Of course, the R’s left will tend to be more Tea Partyish, so that will factor into the equation. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2016, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-dems-will-sweep-into-power-in-both-the-house-and-the-senate-as-well-as-the-presidency/754482/118 "2016-10-11T04:10:48Z")
A lot depends on how Ryan runs the House. The Hastert rule means nothing passes that Republicans don’t want passed no matter how slim their majority. If Ryan decides to chuck the rule then Democrats can govern, although in practice the Republicans will still control both the House and the Senate, assuming Schumer agrees to follow suit and allow REpublican bills to come up. That’s because Democrats capture neither chamber without conservative Democrats, and Republicans have generally been skillful at leveraging those conservative members to form governing coalitions. If you’re Paul Ryan and you have an eye towards the White House, that’s how you get there. Repeal the Hastert rule in exchange for Schumer also repealing the less official version that Reid had, and then nothing but conservative legislation comes out of Congress, and it comes out in a torrent. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2016, 4:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-dems-will-sweep-into-power-in-both-the-house-and-the-senate-as-well-as-the-presidency/754482/119 "2016-10-11T04:15:45Z")
How will the new GOP factions get along? There are the ones who disavowed Trump, and those who didn’t. Could divide the GOP’s majority in both houses. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2016, 6:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-dems-will-sweep-into-power-in-both-the-house-and-the-senate-as-well-as-the-presidency/754482/120 "2016-10-11T06:52:46Z")
Nah. There are no true Trump supporters in Congress. Only those who saw political advantage in supporting him and those that did not. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-dems-will-sweep-into-power-in-both-the-house-and-the-senate-as-well-as-the-presidency/754482.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-dems-will-sweep-into-power-in-both-the-house-and-the-senate-as-well-as-the-presidency/754482.md?page=7)