# The disappearing Moderate
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-disappearing-moderate/588334
**Category:** Great Debates
**Created:** [July 8, 2011, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-disappearing-moderate/588334 "2011-07-08T17:39:40Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)
#### Post date: [July 8, 2011, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-disappearing-moderate/588334/1 "2011-07-08T17:39:40Z")
Nate Silver recently put [this](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/07/why-the-g-o-p-cannot-compromise/) up on his 538 site. His point, as in the title, was why the GOP is motivated to not compromise. I OTOH see the numbers he puts out there as more significant for how those who consider themselves moderate have been fading away.
Currently of those who voted Republican 67% call themselves Conservative, only 30% call themselves Moderate, and of course only a very tiny 3% identify as Liberal. He focuses on the impact that being Republican now means being Conservative and how the most Conservative are the most likely to vote has. But he alludes to [this Gallup result](http://www.gallup.com/poll/141032/2010-conservatives-outnumber-moderates-liberals.aspx) as well, which shows that while those who call themselves Conservative has increased, self-identified Moderates are at their lowest point since 1992, and those who identify as Liberal have slightly increased over the years (albeit still a minority).
It seems to me that Nate’s point that the GOP has to double down on the Conservatives is valid, and that the Democrats mostly own the Moderates, _if they vote_, but also that there is less middle ground than there used to be. And that is a pity.
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### Author:  [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)
#### Post date: [July 8, 2011, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-disappearing-moderate/588334/2 "2011-07-08T18:17:40Z")
From your cite -
> [@](#):
>
> Had the ideological composition of the electorate been the same in 2010 as in 2008 or 2006, the Republicans and Democrats would have split the popular vote for the House about evenly — but as it was, Republicans won the popular vote for the House by about 7 percentage points and gained 63 seats.
If the GOP were becoming less representative of the electorate at large, one would expect them to have lost in 2010.
They also make the perfectly legitimate point that political identifications are not immutable. Possibly some proportion of those who would otherwise identify as “moderate” saw that a big-spending liberal like Obama and his cohort in Congress is what the New York Times thinks of as a “moderate” - and ran screaming in the other direction.
Regards,
Shodan
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### Author:  [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)
#### Post date: [July 8, 2011, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-disappearing-moderate/588334/3 "2011-07-08T19:02:07Z")
1. The issue for this thread is _not_ if the electorate at large is or is not represented by the GOP. It is that the electorate at large is losing its self-identified middle ground. Indeed, from 2008 many have stopped calling themselves Moderate and have instead begun to identify as Conservative. Have the views changed or is it what people call themselves that has changed? I am not sure.
2. I think you also are very capable of understanding Nate’s point: the very conservative element of the GOP are more likely voters, especially in Congressional and primary elections. There can be fewer of them than there are moderates plus liberals but more of them actually come out on election day -
> [@](#):
>
> This is why Republican politicians find it difficult to compromise on something like the debt ceiling, even when it might seem they have substantial incentive to do so. Republicans are still fairly unpopular — only about 40 percent of Americans have a favorable view of the party, which is barely better than their standing in 2006 or 2008 (although Democrats have become significantly less popular since then). As long as conservative Republicans are much more likely to vote than anyone else, the party can fare well despite that unpopularity, as it obviously did in 2010. But it means that Republican members of Congress have a mandate to remain steadfast to the conservatives who are responsible for electing them.
>
> Presidential elections are different: they tend to have a more equivocal turnout. The G.O.P. can turn out its base but it has not converted many other voters to its cause, and President Obama’s approval ratings remain passable although not good. The Republicans will need all their voters to turn out — including their moderates — to be an even-money bet to defeat him. …
Turn out matters and his point includes how that turn out is different in Congressional races than in presidential ones, and in primaries than in generals.
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### Author:  [@George\_Kaplin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/George_Kaplin)
#### Post date: [July 8, 2011, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-disappearing-moderate/588334/4 "2011-07-08T20:06:41Z")
When the going gets tough, the average get conservative - Henry Rollins.
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### Author:  [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)
#### Post date: [July 8, 2011, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-disappearing-moderate/588334/5 "2011-07-08T20:17:32Z")
> [@Shodan](#):
>
> From your cite -
> If the GOP were becoming less representative of the electorate at large, one would expect them to have lost in 2010.
>
> They also make the perfectly legitimate point that political identifications are not immutable. Possibly some proportion of those who would otherwise identify as “moderate” saw that a big-spending liberal like Obama and his cohort in Congress is what the New York Times thinks of as a “moderate” - and ran screaming in the other direction.
Well, David Brooks (who is a diehard conservative) called out the GOP in a recent article.
> [@](#):
>
> The struggles of the next few weeks are about what sort of party the G.O.P. is — a normal conservative party or an odd protest movement that has separated itself from normal governance, the normal rules of evidence and the ancient habits of our nation.
>
> If the debt ceiling talks fail, independent voters will see that Democrats were willing to compromise but Republicans were not. If responsible Republicans don’t take control, independents will conclude that Republican fanaticism caused this default. They will conclude that Republicans are not fit to govern.
>
> And they will be right.
>
> SOURCE: [http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/05/opinion/05brooks.html?src=me&ref=general](http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/05/opinion/05brooks.html?src=me&ref=general)
The Economist magazine, also very conservative (at least on economic matters), has decided the republicans are the problem on the budget.
> [@](#):
>
> And the closer you look, the more unprincipled the Republicans look. Earlier this year House Republicans produced a report noting that an 85%-15% split between spending cuts and tax rises was the average for successful fiscal consolidations, according to historical evidence. The White House is offering an 83%-17% split (hardly a huge distance) and a promise that none of the revenue increase will come from higher marginal rates, only from eliminating loopholes. If the Republicans were real tax reformers, they would seize this offer.
>
> Both parties have in recent months been guilty of fiscal recklessness. Right now, though, the blame falls clearly on the Republicans. Independent voters should take note.
>
> SOURCE: [http://www.economist.com/node/18928600](http://www.economist.com/node/18928600)
The GOP has been co-opted by the lunatic fringe (Michele Bachmann now wants a [constitutional amendment banning](http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2011/07/bachmann-signs-pledge-for-ban-on-porn-and-same-sex-marriage.html) porn and same sex marriage).
The cracks are starting to show (thankfully).
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### Author:  [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)
#### Post date: [July 8, 2011, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-disappearing-moderate/588334/6 "2011-07-08T20:52:45Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#):
>
> The GOP has been co-opted by the lunatic fringe (Michele Bachmann now wants a [constitutional amendment banning](http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2011/07/bachmann-signs-pledge-for-ban-on-porn-and-same-sex-marriage.html) porn and same sex marriage).
>
> The cracks are starting to show (thankfully).
They won’t still show, if that amendment is passed.
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### Author:  [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)
#### Post date: [July 8, 2011, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-disappearing-moderate/588334/7 "2011-07-08T21:07:32Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#):
>
> Well, David Brooks (who is a diehard conservative) called out the GOP in a recent article.
Gosh, a _New York Times_ opinion piece blaming the Republicans for everything.
Imagine my surprise.
Regards,
Shodan
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### Author:  [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)
#### Post date: [July 8, 2011, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-disappearing-moderate/588334/8 "2011-07-08T21:13:19Z")
> [@Shodan](#):
>
> Gosh, a _New York Times_ opinion piece blaming the Republicans for everything.
>
> Imagine my surprise.
>
> Regards,
> Shodan
Err…that is by David Brooks. A long time and ardent supporter of the right and much reviled by liberals.
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### Author:  [@wmfellows](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wmfellows)
#### Post date: [July 8, 2011, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-disappearing-moderate/588334/9 "2011-07-08T21:23:27Z")
> [@Shodan](#):
>
> Gosh, a _New York Times_ opinion piece blaming the Republicans for everything.
>
> Imagine my surprise.
>
> Regards,
> Shodan
I was rather trying to imagine a proper honest response. Economist being well-known as a raging Leftist rag… And Googling Brooks I see he’s actually a conservative.
I suppose cognitive dissonance does that to the more rigid.
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### Author:  [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)
#### Post date: [July 8, 2011, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-disappearing-moderate/588334/10 "2011-07-08T21:28:45Z")
Seriously **Shodan**. The writer is a conservative icon. The issue is a divide within the GOP, the same issue that Nate Silver wrote about.
Pretty bankrupt response. Try again.
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### Author:  [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)
#### Post date: [July 8, 2011, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-disappearing-moderate/588334/11 "2011-07-08T21:55:23Z")
An interesting take-home message from the Gallup polling data is that Democrats who identify as moderates have been declining somewhat over the last decade, while self-identified Democratic liberals have been increasing and now slightly exceed the moderates.
So Republicans are increasingly viewing themselves as conservatives and Democrats as liberals, while roughly twice as many Americans overall see themselves as conservative rather than liberal (and that has become even more noticeable in the last few years).
This sounds to me more like a problem for Democrats than for Republicans. Whether the demographic shifts favoring Democrats counterbalance that in the short or long term remains to be seen.
(as an extreme centrist (rather than moderate) I consistently have voted for Democrats as generally representing the less repulsive alternative, except in those cases where both major party candidates seemed sufficiently vile as to justify not voting for either (as in the last Ohio gubernatorial race). That’s one definition of a “disappearing moderate” - someone who does not feel compelled to vote for the lesser of two evils if such an entity cannot be discerned).
> [@DSeid](#):
>
> The writer is a conservative icon.
Not as “conservative” is now defined. While I often disagree with Brooks, he is too reasonable a high percentage of the time to be considered a legitimate conservative by those who’ve hijacked the term.
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### Author:  [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)
#### Post date: [July 8, 2011, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-disappearing-moderate/588334/12 "2011-07-08T22:05:54Z")
Default now or default in twenty years. Those are the only two options.
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### Author:  [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)
#### Post date: [July 8, 2011, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-disappearing-moderate/588334/13 "2011-07-08T22:09:34Z")
Well this is where this thread intersects with the [left right linear model](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=615077) thread. Perhaps the labels “Liberal”, “Moderate”, and “Conservative” are too simplistic to really be useful in this context? But clearly Brooks thinks of himself as Conservative.
In terms of the game I think it is a problem for both in different ways but more importantly I see the ever increasing polarity as a problem for us all.
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### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [July 8, 2011, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-disappearing-moderate/588334/14 "2011-07-08T23:14:02Z")
According to the 2011 [Pew Political Typology,](http://people-press.org/2011/05/04/beyond-red-vs-blue-the-political-typology/) of the two Republican-leaning groups, 9% of the general public and 10% of registered voters are “Staunch Conservatives”; 11% of the public and 14% of the voters are moderate “Main Street Republicans.” So, no, I would not say the GOP’s extremists outnumber its moderates. Any difference you perceive in the vitality of the two wings is probably due to differences in zeal and organizing.
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### Author:  [@Recovering\_Republican](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Recovering_Republican)
#### Post date: [July 8, 2011, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-disappearing-moderate/588334/15 "2011-07-08T23:34:43Z")
> [@DSeid](#):
>
> Nate Silver recently put [this](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/07/why-the-g-o-p-cannot-compromise/) up on his 538 site. His point, as in the title, was why the GOP is motivated to not compromise. I OTOH see the numbers he puts out there as more significant for how those who consider themselves moderate have been fading away.
>
> Currently of those who voted Republican 67% call themselves Conservative, only 30% call themselves Moderate, and of course only a very tiny 3% identify as Liberal. He focuses on the impact that being Republican now means being Conservative and how the most Conservative are the most likely to vote has. But he alludes to [this Gallup result](http://www.gallup.com/poll/141032/2010-conservatives-outnumber-moderates-liberals.aspx) as well, which shows that while those who call themselves Conservative has increased, self-identified Moderates are at their lowest point since 1992, and those who identify as Liberal have slightly increased over the years (albeit still a minority).
>
> It seems to me that Nate’s point that the GOP has to double down on the Conservatives is valid, and that the Democrats mostly own the Moderates, _if they vote_, but also that there is less middle ground than there used to be. And that is a pity.
When I find is that there’s no room for moderates.
When I post that Maybe Obama isn’t the anti-Christ and he wasn’t born on Kenya on TownHall or RealClearPolitics, they scream that I’m a socialist and a traitor and a bunch of other crap.
When I post on “Straight Dope” that maybe Obama can’t fix some of the problems, like today’s 9.2% unemployment rate, I get called racist and worse.
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### Author:  [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)
#### Post date: [July 8, 2011, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-disappearing-moderate/588334/16 "2011-07-08T23:59:32Z")
I’m a moderate Republican. But when I look at my party arguing about birth certificates, holding Tea Party rallies, and offering up candidates like Bachmann, Palin, and Trump for the Presidency, I look to the Democrats for relative sanity and responsibility.
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### Author:  [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)
#### Post date: [July 9, 2011, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-disappearing-moderate/588334/17 "2011-07-09T00:32:55Z")
> [@Recovering\_Republican](#):
>
> …When I post on “Straight Dope” that maybe Obama can’t fix some of the problems, like today’s 9.2% unemployment rate, I get called racist and worse.
Oh, you poor dear! Need a moment? Beaten upon by the hive mind, were you? And all you did, the sum total of your comment, was simply the perfectly pedestrian observation that Obama could not fix all the problems. That he is not, in effect, omnipotent.
And for that innocent little remark, you were vilified as a “racist” by the rabidly worshipful Obamanistas, who will greet any such modest suggestion with calumny and slander!
Well, I’m shocked, shocked and sickened! Who are these miscreants who befoul our discourse! Let their names be known, I say, give us the opportunity for good solid scolding, so richly deserved! If you could give us a sample of this…you know, where all you said was Obama couldn’t solve all the problems and somebody called you a racist for it… cite us an example, and I will be the first of many to offer said poster a jolly good thrashing! Just a few for now…
Of course, we can’t really hi-jack this whole thread for that, more’s the pity. Too bad there isn’t someplace…oh! wait!..you’ve a Pittee party going on, don’t you? Splendid! Perfect spot for such a citation and proof! And already in place, a golden opportunity! I wait with bated breath…
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### Author:  [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)
#### Post date: [July 9, 2011, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-disappearing-moderate/588334/18 "2011-07-09T00:59:10Z")
> [@elucidator](#):
>
> Oh, you poor dear! Need a moment? Beaten upon by the hive mind, were you?
Well, the “B” in SDMB _does_ stand for “Borg”, right?
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### Author:  [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)
#### Post date: [July 9, 2011, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-disappearing-moderate/588334/19 "2011-07-09T01:50:01Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#):
>
> Well, the “B” in SDMB _does_ stand for “Borg”, right?
What will the pornography ban do to all those nerds thinking of Jeri Ryan?
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### Author:  [@David42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/David42)
#### Post date: [July 9, 2011, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-disappearing-moderate/588334/20 "2011-07-09T02:22:12Z")
> [@Recovering\_Republican](#):
>
> When I find is that there’s no room for moderates.
>
> When I post that Maybe Obama isn’t the anti-Christ and he wasn’t born on Kenya on TownHall or RealClearPolitics, they scream that I’m a socialist and a traitor and a bunch of other crap.
>
> When I post on “Straight Dope” that maybe Obama can’t fix some of the problems, like today’s 9.2% unemployment rate, I get called racist and worse.
I know, you’re damned if you do and damned if you don’t. What seems so stupid to me is that either group supposedly wants more support so that they can have their way, but rejects any support that is not 100% in lockstep with everything they want, and both wind up alienating the person who thinks for himself (assuming the person who “thinks for himself” naturally agrees in part and disagrees in part. Buying the whole agenda completely of either side seems to let others think for you. This assumption has a lot to do with the “individual.”) as though they really don’t want your vote.
I say the more you reject a person or their views because of lack of total compliance with your views, the more unreasonable your arguments will tend to be and the less you should even be listened to to begin with.
I think it is a fundamental proposition of life that the better the grace a person conducts themselves with, the more they are listened to.
Being rude is a good way to say your position sucks.
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