[QUOTE=ralph124c]
There seem to be a plethora of TV shows, about young entrepreneurs getting rich by flipping houses. The idea is straightforward: you buy a house in poor condition, make necessary repairs, install new kitchen and bathrooms, and do some landscaping. You attempt to do this in less than 8 weeks or so, (so your pofits aren’t eaten up by mortgage payements. Hopefully, you’ve added 100K$ of value with an expendidture of less than $40K-leaving you a hefty profit.
I know this is being done, but I don’t think its all that easy to do today. For example: if your house sits on the market for months, you can lose 9big time). A house down the street from us looks to be in this situation-it was gutted and rebuilt-but nobody seems to want it.
Is this a bad time to try to flip?
[/QUOTE]
House flipping wisdom all depends on location, location, location and project planning, project planning, project planning.
The problem with house flipping is that if you’re an individual or a couple leveraging all your credit to flip a house, the penalty for failure - whether it’s because of your own stupidity or just bad luck - is bankruptcy and personal ruin.
House flipping is sort of a gigantic version of being a professional poker player. You can be a professional poker player if you’re good at playing poker, but your expectation of profit is an average, not a per-sitting guarantee. Poker players are all about bankroll; you need a big bankroll becuase you’ll go through periods of bad luck where you keep losing. If you have enough bankroll, that’s okay, because your luck will even out. If you don’t, you end up living in a fridge carton.
House flipping has a similar element; if you have a huge bankroll, it’s not the end of the world if a flip goes badly. But if it’s stretching you out to max your credit cards, and it goes badly, your next stop is filing for bankruptcy. That’s why the shows with the most successful flips are the ones about house-flipping companies, who flip a dozen houses a month. If you have investors and funds to handle a large number of flips, it’s built into your business plan that one or two will go down the pipes every now and then. IF you’re flipping one with all your money, it has to succeed.
The other factor, of course, is skill. Most failed house flips are simply due to a lack of project planning; someone thinks “I have some access to money, I can flip a house” but doesn’t actually put enough effort into costing, task planning, and project management. It’s just straight up business common sense that before you embark on a big project, you’re supposed to analyse, to a high degree of confidence, what the costs will be in terms of money AND TIME. When you see people on those shows get into deep shit, it’s always because of one of three things:
- They arbitrarily set a budget of X, only to find it was going to cost far more than X,
- They assumed they could do the work themselves and then found it was going to take far more man-hours than they anticipated, or
- The house was in worse shape than they thought because they didn’t know enough about houses to know any better, thereby aggravating conditions 1 and 2.
That nevers happens with the flip companies like those guys in South Carolina, because project management is their profession. They have staff whose professional expertise is in looking at a house in condition A and estimating, with accuracy, how many dollars and man-hours it will take to move it into condition B, and then executing that plan with speed and efficiency. If you know THAT, then you can rely on real estate experts to tell if the expected profit will exceed the cost of going from A to B.
So if you’re going to flip a house as an individual, and you’re not really rich, you had best know what you’re doing in terms of project management.