# The draft IS coming. You heard it hear first. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 15, 2004, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-draft-is-coming-you-heard-it-hear-first/269469 "2004-10-15T22:14:22Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2004, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-draft-is-coming-you-heard-it-hear-first/269469/41 "2004-10-17T02:08:57Z")
Christ. Of course, W will reinstitute the draft. Oh, and Kerry will have all the wheelchair-bound walking in his first term. This is #$%^ing incredible. The [draft](http://www.globalsecurity.org/org/news/2004/040524-unlikely-draft.htm) ain’t happening, and the Democrats know this damn well. > [@](#): > > “You’re talking about an undertaking that nobody has the stomach for,” said Andrew Krepinovich, a retired Army lieutenant colonel who is director of the Center for Strategic and Budget Alternatives in Washington. > > Professor Charles Moskos of Northwestern University, considered America’s pre-eminent military sociologist, has been arguing for a draft for years, but thinks the odds it will be reinstated are “very low.” > > “Conservatives don’t like [the draft] because they say it’s a restriction on their freedom. Liberals don’t like it because they don’t want to serve in the military,” Moskos said. I repeat, the [draft](http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6134043/) ain’t a remote possibility: > [@](#): > > It may sound strange, but most Pentagon and military leaders actually oppose the draft, because they say the all-volunteer army is working. Generally, today’s soldiers are in the Army because they want to be. Drafted soldiers would be forced to serve for only two years — barely enough time to train them for today’s high-tech force. > > “There are so many specific skills you need that you can’t just bring somebody in, train them for six months and bring them to Iraq,” says military expert Loren Thompson. “They won’t know what to do.” Even if Bush is the evil Bond villain some make him out to be, he still wouldn’t pursue a draft (again, only Congress can’t make it so–AND THEY JUST VOTED IT DOWN!) given the fact that it DOESN’T HELP! Sheesh. Kerry and the DNC know this. Why, oh why, would they continue to perpetuate this obvious falsehood? Gee, I wonder why? ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2004, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-draft-is-coming-you-heard-it-hear-first/269469/42 "2004-10-17T02:24:02Z")
> [@Fear Itself](#): > > No, it does not. Why would you draw that conclusion? Do we need to add :rolleyes:'s to denote sarcasm in IMHO threads now? (Yes, this thread is in GD now, but it wasn’t when I posted) ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2004, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-draft-is-coming-you-heard-it-hear-first/269469/43 "2004-10-17T02:36:10Z")
> [@elfkin477](#): > > Do we need to add :rolleyes:'s to denote sarcasm in IMHO threads now? (Yes, this thread is in GD now, but it wasn’t when I posted) Sorry, your sarcasm sounded suspiciously like an earnest conservative argument. :smack: ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2004, 6:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-draft-is-coming-you-heard-it-hear-first/269469/44 "2004-10-17T06:49:40Z")
You are all assuming that Iraq is it. What happens if North Korea, or Iran, or someone else we haven’t thought of makes serious trouble? What if GW decides that someone else is an imminent threat, and can convince the boobs of it? Then the draft becomes supremely patriotic, and would pass in a second. Bush would be a second term president, why would he care about his political future? Even I don’t think he is secretly plotting one, but he could easily bumble us into one. Another issue - if re-enlistment rates go down because of an improving economy (okay, no big threat if he stays in office.) Remember, these are the people who don’t plan for worst cases very well. ---
**Author:** ![Declan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecae2f/32.png) [@Declan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Declan)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2004, 6:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-draft-is-coming-you-heard-it-hear-first/269469/45 "2004-10-17T06:53:53Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > For an instant, lets pretend this fantasy draft meme is real. Does anyone here have any idea how long it would take to get troops into the pipeline if they started the drafe in, say, late Novemeber (after the election of course, the evil bastards)?? I seriously doubt we’d be able to have troops in Iraq before 2006…and it wouldn’t exactly be an effective force. > > -XT It would take on the order of 18 to 24 months to get them from induction to Iraq or where ever. This is based on the premise that they are not going to be dropped into units pell mell, but would be the meat and potatos of two reactivated divisions. Plus there is assorted problems mixing Volar forces with Draft forces , pay would be what ever congress deemed, rather than what the current forces are gettiing. Declan ---
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2004, 7:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-draft-is-coming-you-heard-it-hear-first/269469/46 "2004-10-17T07:11:46Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > You are all assuming that Iraq is it. What happens if North Korea, or Iran, or someone else we haven’t thought of makes serious trouble? What if GW decides that someone else is an imminent threat, and can convince the boobs of it? And what if the Rapture happens and all of us non-fundies are left behind? Spin the hypothetical theories all you want, but a draft is a death sentence for any political party which manages to get it through Congress while we’re tied up with the Iraq mess. > [@](#): > > Then the draft becomes supremely patriotic, and would pass in a second. Bush would be a second term president, why would he care about his political future? Well, there’s all those fat “consulting” contracts with major corporations he can land afterwards, then there’s the fact that a number of his political advisors would no dounbt like to continue to have a cushy job in Washington, which they wouldn’t be able to get if Bush slits the throats of every Republican by enacting a draft. > [@](#): > > Even I don’t think he is secretly plotting one, but he could easily bumble us into one. He could also bumble us into the crock of gold at the end of the rainbow, but somehow I just don’t think it’s going to happen. > [@](#): > > Another issue - if re-enlistment rates go down because of an improving economy (okay, no big threat if he stays in office.) Remember, these are the people who don’t plan for worst cases very well. So then a draft would _really_ be unpopular, because you know, people would be forced to leave their high paying jobs and go work for the pittance we pay military people. Again, you wind up with the entire Republican party’s heads on a silver platter. ---
**Author:** ![Gala\_Matrix\_Fire](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/4da419/32.png) [@Gala\_Matrix\_Fire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gala_Matrix_Fire)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2004, 12:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-draft-is-coming-you-heard-it-hear-first/269469/47 "2004-10-17T12:03:51Z")
**Squink** , I saw that headline too, and stupidly fell for it and clicked on it. Naturally, Bush offers no rationale whatsoever to back up his statement. How is going to man the Army? Magically, but of course. The same way he pays for his war in Iraq without mentioning it in the budget. He has definitely conviced me that whatever he does, he won’t call it a draft. But then I figured that anyway. I’m not saying we’re definitely going to have a draft if Bush is elected, but I think it’s also wishful thinking to rule it out. We’ll be in Iraq for a good long time, and in the meantime Iran and Korea are brewing. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2004, 12:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-draft-is-coming-you-heard-it-hear-first/269469/48 "2004-10-17T12:16:21Z")
> [@](#): > > **By Ask Nott** > > I don’t quite understand what the UK gets for its coziness Yes I don’t know either, anyone care to tell us? ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2004, 12:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-draft-is-coming-you-heard-it-hear-first/269469/49 "2004-10-17T12:23:12Z")
> [@Tuckerfan](#): > > Did you see Bush’s address to the UN General Assembly? Was it the least bit concillatory? No. Did he come out and say, “We screwed up big time.”? No. Did he apologize? Nope. Because that kinda grovelling doesn’t win you respect in the international community, in the West, yes you’re right, but within dealing with the entire world with countries which regard ‘saving face’ an absolute, whats the point in doing that? In the short term people may think ‘good guy for owning up’ but long term it tarnishes everything else the US wants to achieve or set out. These things have consequences, just like the Iraq war. The US administration may not be well liked in the International arena, but it is well respected. ---
**Author:** ![mks57](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b9bd4f/32.png) [@mks57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mks57)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2004, 12:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-draft-is-coming-you-heard-it-hear-first/269469/50 "2004-10-17T12:31:15Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > For an instant, lets pretend this fantasy draft meme is real. Does anyone here have any idea how long it would take to get troops into the pipeline if they started the drafe in, say, late Novemeber (after the election of course, the evil bastards)?? I seriously doubt we’d be able to have troops in Iraq before 2006…and it wouldn’t exactly be an effective force. The figure I’ve read from World War II history is that it took about a year to transform a group of recruits into an effective fighting unit. That was for equipping and training many new units from scratch. ---
**Author:** ![Avenger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9de0a6/32.png) [@Avenger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Avenger)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2004, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-draft-is-coming-you-heard-it-hear-first/269469/51 "2004-10-17T13:58:40Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > Yes I don’t know either, anyone care to tell us? We get to be told what we’re going to do slightly before anyone else finds out. ---
**Author:** ![flickster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7bcc69/32.png) [@flickster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flickster)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2004, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-draft-is-coming-you-heard-it-hear-first/269469/52 "2004-10-17T14:03:12Z")
You may be looking in the wrong direction with your draft fears. Which party recently sponsored bills to bring back the draft? - Democrats Which candidate said that he wanted to increase the size of the military by two divisions? - Kerry Maybe someone should evaluate just how Kerry intends to add 20,000 troops… ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2004, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-draft-is-coming-you-heard-it-hear-first/269469/53 "2004-10-17T14:06:15Z")
> [@flickster](#): > > You may be looking in the wrong direction with your draft fears. > > Which party recently sponsored bills to bring back the draft? - Democrats > > Which candidate said that he wanted to increase the size of the military by two divisions? - Kerry > > Maybe someone should evaluate just how Kerry intends to add 20,000 troops… Now theres the greenlight for the insurgents to play havoc, its more than military, its repuation, Bush has built up an image across the Middle East as a hardass who will beat the shit outta terrorists no matter what. Does anyone want to tell me what the Middle East thinks of Kerry? ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2004, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-draft-is-coming-you-heard-it-hear-first/269469/54 "2004-10-17T14:53:28Z")
> [@flickster](#): > > Which candidate said that he wanted to increase the size of the military by two divisions? - Kerry Which administration has its head up its ass in re the military’s need for more troops? -the Bush Administration [Rumsfeld admits armed services may have to grow](http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/0904/092404c1.htm) (Sep 24, 2004) > [@](#): > > Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said Thursday that the size of the military might have to expand if efforts to better manage the existing force do not succeed. > “If we need to increase the size of the force, we need to increase the size of the force, and I’m all for it,” Rumsfeld told the Senate Armed Services Committee during a hearing Thursday. “[But] it would pain me to do it when we have so many portions of the force that aren’t being properly used, and I’d much prefer to see us do that.” It’s like pulling teeth. It’s like Rummy and pals think even talking about the military’s needs is some sort of sin. Fortunately, [congress can step in](http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/1004/100804cdpm2.htm) when there’s a leadership gap like this: > [@](#): > > Oct 8, 2004 > House-Senate conferees completed work late Thursday night on a $447 billion fiscal 2005 defense authorization bill that would permit the Army and Marines to increase their troop strength and authorize the design of a second next-generation Navy destroyer… > Under the final conference report, the Army would be permitted to increase its troop strength by 20,000 soldiers and the Marines by 3,000 in fiscal 2005, with further increases through fiscal 2009. It’d have been more efficient if the pentagon had given congress a detailed analysis of its near term manpower needs, but what are you going to do, hang our boys in uniform out to dry until Bush et. al. decide to confront reality? ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2004, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-draft-is-coming-you-heard-it-hear-first/269469/55 "2004-10-17T15:30:55Z")
“We will **not** have an all-volunteer army.” – _G.W. Bush, Florida, 16 October 2004_ 😃 [sub]Erm… he _did_ say, “Let me restate that.”[/sub] ---
**Author:** ![SteveG1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bb73d2/32.png) [@SteveG1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SteveG1)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2004, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-draft-is-coming-you-heard-it-hear-first/269469/56 "2004-10-17T15:41:53Z")
“We will not have an all-volunteer army” - Did he let the cat out of the bag? Of course he wouldn’t touch a hot button like the draft during an election year. It would be political suicide and everyone would avoid it like the plague. However, the more trouble we get into, the more troops we will need. You can not simply reorganize, that leads to inefficiency and chaos (Petronius). You can not keep a stop - loss going forever, because soldiers get old just like everyone else. As for “saving face”, I understand that may be a big deal in some cultures. However, what is a worse disgrace or loss of face - Screwing up and admiting it, and then fixing it, or willfully remaining “steadfast and resolute” and insisting nothing is wrong? I know some people like this personally. They sneak, lie, deny, and never ever admit what they did, insisting it never even happened. They lose more “face” than if they just said “I messed up”. They make it worse. Denying and lying is a bigger loss of honor or loss of face than trying to make things right. It is a false honor for those who have none. ---
**Author:** ![Mathochist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c89c15/32.png) [@Mathochist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mathochist)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2004, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-draft-is-coming-you-heard-it-hear-first/269469/57 "2004-10-17T15:58:44Z")
> [@legion](#): > > Others feel that their presence merely serves to foster the illusion that this war is being waged by a coillition. A cotillion indeed. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2004, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-draft-is-coming-you-heard-it-hear-first/269469/58 "2004-10-17T16:55:53Z")
> [@Stratocaster](#): > > “Conservatives don’t like [the draft] because they say it’s a restriction on their freedom. Liberals don’t like it because they don’t want to serve in the military,” Moskos said. I find the use of “they say…” in an attempt to cast doubt on a statement that is quite obviously true to be a particularly annoying doublespeak technique. ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2004, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-draft-is-coming-you-heard-it-hear-first/269469/59 "2004-10-17T17:44:42Z")
Forget the political rhetoric and the campaign promises. Just apply simple logic to the situation: 1. US military forces are already stretched to the breaking point. There’s no relief for units in Iraq because there’s no one to replace them. 1a. Recruitment of new military personnel is down. 2. The situation in Iraq is not going to improve any time soon. 3. There is no shortage of remaining threats to the United States. 4. George W. Bush has burned enough diplomatic bridges that we can’t count on any help from our allies. So, what’s gonna happen if (or when) some other threats pop up? Will we ask them to please wait until we get a proper military response in place? Will we reassign troops from Iraq and let things there go downhill even faster? Will Donald Rumsfeld wave his magic wand and magically conjure up an army of undead zombies to answer the threat? Or will second-term George W. Bush, with nothing left to lose politically, make a speech filled with jingoistic nonsense and push for a new draft? Imminent threat, patriotic duty, war commander, blab blab blab. Get the usual right-wing talking heads to line up behind it, and you can expect at least 45% of the nation (or whatever percentage is polled as Bush voters today) to support it. And if you want to assign blame, just look at the idiot who got us into this mess by giving us #1, #2, #3, and #4 to begin with. _Real_ leaders solve problems, not create them. ---
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2004, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-draft-is-coming-you-heard-it-hear-first/269469/60 "2004-10-17T18:52:52Z")
> [@rjung](#): > > So, what’s gonna happen if (or when) some other threats pop up? Will we ask them to please wait until we get a proper military response in place? Will we reassign troops from Iraq and let things there go downhill even faster? Will Donald Rumsfeld wave his magic wand and magically conjure up an army of undead zombies to answer the threat? Most likely what will happen is that we’ll bomb the shit out of them until we can pull forces from Afghanistan, followed by a pull out of forces from Iraq. The Air Force and the Navy aren’t being used quite so heavily in Iraq and Afghanistan, so we can yank them out of those areas first. Of course, that means the grunts on the ground will be bereft of air support, but it’s not like the Admin has the highest level of respect for them anyway. > [@](#): > > Or will second-term George W. Bush, with nothing left to lose politically, make a speech filled with jingoistic nonsense and push for a new draft? Imminent threat, patriotic duty, war commander, blab blab blab. Get the usual right-wing talking heads to line up behind it, and you can expect at least 45% of the nation (or whatever percentage is polled as Bush voters today) to support it. Don’t forget that Bush’s handlers have _plenty_ left to lose, since if the 2008 election goes to a Democrat, they’ve got _no_ hope of a cushy job in the next Administration. (I keep forgetting: Is Bush an evil overlord hell-bent on destroying American freedoms or is he Cheney and Rove’s puppet?) > [@](#): > > And if you want to assign blame, just look at the idiot who got us into this mess by giving us #1, #2, #3, and #4 to begin with. _Real_ leaders solve problems, not create them. Thank you, Captain Obvious. Now, when _any_ party in the US can present a real leader as a viable candidtate for President, we can look forward to having the nation’s problems solved. > [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > The US administration may not be well liked in the International arena, but it is well respected. Primarily because it has the ability to nuke the planet into oblivion. > [@mks57](#): > > The figure I’ve read from World War II history is that it took about a year to transform a group of recruits into an effective fighting unit. That was for equipping and training many new units from scratch. And it’d be even longer these days, considering the level of sophisticated equipment the military has. In WW II, tanks were powered by Cadillac engines, which any grease monkey could be expected to have at least a passing familiarity with. Today, they’re turbine powered. Planes back then used piston engines, which while were of an unfamiliar make to automotive mechanics, they at least had an understanding of the general principles behind them. Hardly any of today’s military aircraft are piston powered, so if you get a surplus of automechanic inductees, you can’t simply dump them into the Air Force or Navy and let them repair planes. Additionally, many of the militarys critical software operations are handled by Linux or Unix machines, **not** Windows machines, so you’re going to have to do a _lot_ of training to get a bunch of unwilling draftees to learn how to use them. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-draft-is-coming-you-heard-it-hear-first/269469.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-draft-is-coming-you-heard-it-hear-first/269469.md?page=4)