# The Duggers are at it again! \[Family preparing for 18th child\] **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 9, 2008, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-duggers-are-at-it-again-family-preparing-for-18th-child/448706 "2008-05-09T15:20:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 14
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2008, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-duggers-are-at-it-again-family-preparing-for-18th-child/448706/261 "2008-05-13T12:43:52Z")
[QUOTE=Really Not All That Bright] A replacement rate of 2.1 already takes the median death rate into account. That’s why it’s 2.1, and not… 2. [/QUOTE] I understand that. The point is that 2.58 is not an extreme rate of human growth, and that trends indicate that overall, not just in the first world, the rate of growth is decreasing. Also, I was pointing out that the places where TFR was abnormally high, i.e. beyond the median birth rate, that the death rate was also abnormally high, i.e. above the median. I was corrolating a high fertility rate with the necessity of breeding due to a high likelihood of death. Yemen, being the only country that bucked this trend. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2008, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-duggers-are-at-it-again-family-preparing-for-18th-child/448706/262 "2008-05-13T12:47:53Z")
[QUOTE=Sophistry and Illusion] I don’t see how these are anything other than fallacious slippery-slope arguments. “If allegedly permissible acts and allegedly bad acts exist on a continuum, and you cannot draw a precise line on the continuum where it goes from permissible to bad, then actions at both ends of the spectrum must have the same moral status.” [/QUOTE] Not at all fallacious. You are setting your bar in such a way that the injunction on moral behavior requires you to change nothing, but requires much of others. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2008, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-duggers-are-at-it-again-family-preparing-for-18th-child/448706/263 "2008-05-13T12:53:52Z")
[QUOTE=mswas] I understand that. The point is that 2.58 is not an extreme rate of human growth, and that trends indicate that overall, not just in the first world, the rate of growth is decreasing. Also, I was pointing out that the places where TFR was abnormally high, i.e. beyond the median birth rate, that the death rate was also abnormally high, i.e. above the median. I was corrolating a high fertility rate with the necessity of breeding due to a high likelihood of death. Yemen, being the only country that bucked this trend. [/QUOTE] Unless my math is way off (and that’s possible), a net population increase of .48 per generation means there will be ~9 billion people on Earth by 2030. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2008, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-duggers-are-at-it-again-family-preparing-for-18th-child/448706/264 "2008-05-13T13:08:05Z")
[QUOTE=Really Not All That Bright] Unless my math is way off (and that’s possible), a net population increase of .48 per generation means there will be ~9 billion people on Earth by 2030. [/QUOTE] It’s not a net increase of .48, it’s a net increase of .24. So the population will be around 7.5-8 billion by 2030. Remember 2.1 refers to ‘per woman’, so it generally accounts that there is a man in the equation, so the two children are replacing two adults with the .1 to account for errant deaths. So the extra is not .48 it’s .24 because it’s measured off of replacing two people. So it’s a quarter again, not half again. But as we’ve seen over the past half century, the rate of increase has decreased across the board, not just in the first world. We don’t know what will happen with those rates in the future, but the trend shows that we don’t need extravagant measures to achieve demographic balance. ---
**Author:** ![Sophistry\_and\_Illusion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b3f665/32.png) [@Sophistry\_and\_Illusion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sophistry_and_Illusion)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2008, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-duggers-are-at-it-again-family-preparing-for-18th-child/448706/265 "2008-05-13T21:45:50Z")
[QUOTE=mswas] Not at all fallacious. You are setting your bar in such a way that the injunction on moral behavior requires you to change nothing, but requires much of others. [/QUOTE] So what if I am? How is that more than just an ad hominem? What I am objecting to is the idea that since lots of us waste energy to some extent, that there is nothing particularly wrong with wasting extreme amounts of energy. It just doesn’t follow. Another option is that I live an environmentally-friendly lifestyle. But whether I do or not is really irrelevant to my argument. ---
**Author:** ![Icerigger](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/icerigger/32/432_2.png) [@Icerigger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Icerigger)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2008, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-duggers-are-at-it-again-family-preparing-for-18th-child/448706/266 "2008-05-13T23:08:00Z")
Why do all the projections show a leveling off population? I think we are in a “great awaking” of religion to a more orthodox strain, where having large families is the norm. In fact The Duggers are a great example of this trend. I could easily see the world’s population explode in the next few decades. Or am I way off base? ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2008, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-duggers-are-at-it-again-family-preparing-for-18th-child/448706/267 "2008-05-13T23:24:15Z")
[QUOTE=mswas] It’s not a net increase of .48, it’s a net increase of .24. So the population will be around 7.5-8 billion by 2030. Remember 2.1 refers to ‘per woman’, so it generally accounts that there is a man in the equation, so the two children are replacing two adults with the .1 to account for errant deaths. So the extra is not .48 it’s .24 because it’s measured off of replacing two people. So it’s a quarter again, not half again. But as we’ve seen over the past half century, the rate of increase has decreased across the board, not just in the first world. We don’t know what will happen with those rates in the future, but the trend shows that we don’t need extravagant measures to achieve demographic balance. [/QUOTE] Then you may have convinced me - can someone else confirm that his numbers are correct? ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2008, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-duggers-are-at-it-again-family-preparing-for-18th-child/448706/268 "2008-05-14T00:49:42Z")
[QUOTE=Really Not All That Bright] Then you may have convinced me - can someone else confirm that his numbers are correct? [/QUOTE] I took them all from the CIA world factbook. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2008, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-duggers-are-at-it-again-family-preparing-for-18th-child/448706/269 "2008-05-14T00:51:24Z")
[QUOTE=Sophistry and Illusion] So what if I am? How is that more than just an ad hominem? What I am objecting to is the idea that since lots of us waste energy to some extent, that there is nothing particularly wrong with wasting extreme amounts of energy. It just doesn’t follow. [/quote] Well the question was, about where to set the bar, and you blew it off. You are saying it’s obvious that the Dugger’s are beyond the pale, but the question is what is the ‘pale’ threshold? > [@](#): > > Another option is that I live an environmentally-friendly lifestyle. But whether I do or not is really irrelevant to my argument. No one really knows what an environmentally friendly lifestyle is. Yes, we can certainly reduce our footprint, but what level of consumption is reasonable? Is having a computer reasonable? ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2008, 2:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-duggers-are-at-it-again-family-preparing-for-18th-child/448706/270 "2008-05-14T02:54:56Z")
[QUOTE=mswas] I took them all from the CIA world factbook. [/QUOTE] The maths, not the statistics. > [@](#): > > Well the question was, about where to set the bar, and you blew it off. You are saying it’s obvious that the Dugger’s are beyond the pale, but the question is what is the ‘pale’ threshold? Personally, I’d say my rule of thumb is “can they all fit in one car?” If your kids have their own driver, time to make with the birth control. ---
**Author:** ![fisha](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@fisha](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fisha)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2008, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-duggers-are-at-it-again-family-preparing-for-18th-child/448706/271 "2008-05-14T03:05:19Z")
[QUOTE=Really Not All That Bright] The maths, not the statistics. Personally, I’d say my rule of thumb is “can they all fit in one car?” If your kids have their own driver, time to make with the birth control. [/QUOTE] I used to have a 15 passenger van. That makes them only 4 over, and some of those four can drive. I think they passed your test. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2008, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-duggers-are-at-it-again-family-preparing-for-18th-child/448706/272 "2008-05-14T03:06:20Z")
[QUOTE=Really Not All That Bright] The maths, not the statistics. [/quote] Seems rather simple to me. 2.58 is number of children per woman. For a woman to have a child there has to be a man. So that is 2.58 per person. 2.1 is accepted replacement rate, so that leaves us with .48. .48 is about 50% of a person. So we replace two people with two and a half more. IE, 12 couples will have 15 kids. A roughly 4/5 ratio. > [@](#): > > Personally, I’d say my rule of thumb is “can they all fit in one car?” Hey, that’s a way for the Hummer and the 18 kids to justify one another. 😉 > [@](#): > > If your kids have their own driver, time to make with the birth control. What if it’s one of your older kids? ---
**Author:** ![treis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bc79bd/32.png) [@treis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/treis)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2008, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-duggers-are-at-it-again-family-preparing-for-18th-child/448706/273 "2008-05-14T03:30:17Z")
The problem I have with the Duggar’s is not the number of children they have, though that magnifies the problem. My problem is the unbelievable level of creepiness their family gives off. Here’s a few quotes from their FAQ page: > [@](#): > > We also review & memorize scripture, hymns & operational definitions of character qualities. The children especially enjoy this because they make up motions to help with memorization. > [@](#): > > 9:00p.m. is Bible time with Daddy. This is probably our favorite time of day. Daddy reads the Bible & we discuss the passage together. We talk about the day & bring out points of how to apply what we have learned. We enjoy making up skits & acting out examples of right responses & wrong responses. How freaking creepy is it that. What teenager actually enjoys making up motions to memorize scripture? I think this would be the absolute last thing that I would have wanted to do as a teenager. Err scratch that. “Making up skits & acting out examples of right responses & wrong responses” would definitely top the list. What the hell have the Duggars done to these kids to make them actually enjoy that? Then there’s naming all the kids with J names, dressing them the same, and “training our children to love God” that just creeps the hell out of me. It wouldn’t matter if they had 1 kid or 18, that’s one creepy family. Conversely, if they were a normal family the 18 kids would only ping slightly on my odd meter. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2008, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-duggers-are-at-it-again-family-preparing-for-18th-child/448706/274 "2008-05-14T03:42:08Z")
They are creepy because they study the bible? Wow, that’s pretty intolerant. What you find creepiest about them is that they are Christian. Ok. ---
**Author:** ![treis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bc79bd/32.png) [@treis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/treis)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2008, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-duggers-are-at-it-again-family-preparing-for-18th-child/448706/275 "2008-05-14T03:42:54Z")
[QUOTE=mswas] They are creepy because they study the bible? [/QUOTE] I said that where? ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2008, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-duggers-are-at-it-again-family-preparing-for-18th-child/448706/276 "2008-05-14T03:45:27Z")
Post 273 Ever hear of ‘Kinesthetic learning’? I am a Kinesthetic learning type. I move my arms emphatically when I speak, and it helps me memorize things. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2008, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-duggers-are-at-it-again-family-preparing-for-18th-child/448706/277 "2008-05-14T03:48:45Z")
Meh. It was good enough for my… Okay. Uhm. I know a great deal of my family history and… uh. We ain’t been studying the bible for a few hundred years. But if it was good enough for _families_ a hundred years ago, it’s no bad thing to do today. If they find enjoyment in it, it’s no worse than video games. ---
**Author:** ![treis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bc79bd/32.png) [@treis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/treis)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2008, 3:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-duggers-are-at-it-again-family-preparing-for-18th-child/448706/278 "2008-05-14T03:50:10Z")
I never said that there was anything creepy about studying the bible, or even forcing their kids to do so. You’re attempting to craft what I wrote into something entirely different, just so you can easily dismiss it. Ain’t going to work bub. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2008, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-duggers-are-at-it-again-family-preparing-for-18th-child/448706/279 "2008-05-14T03:58:53Z")
[QUOTE=treis] I never said that there was anything creepy about studying the bible, or even forcing their kids to do so. You’re attempting to craft what I wrote into something entirely different, just so you can easily dismiss it. Ain’t going to work bub. [/QUOTE] Oh right, it’s creepy that they ENJOY it. Right. ---
**Author:** ![Mojo\_Pin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Mojo\_Pin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mojo_Pin)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2008, 5:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-duggers-are-at-it-again-family-preparing-for-18th-child/448706/280 "2008-05-14T05:38:53Z")
Yea god forbid we find something as sacred as religion creepy, that’s just wrong. Well…only some religions–it’s ok to be creeped out by Scientology or Jim Jones or some other _cult_, but Christianity is just out of bounds. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-duggers-are-at-it-again-family-preparing-for-18th-child/448706.md?page=13) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-duggers-are-at-it-again-family-preparing-for-18th-child/448706.md?page=15)