# The economy is doing great **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 20, 2007, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-economy-is-doing-great/388764 "2007-01-20T22:56:22Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2007, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-economy-is-doing-great/388764/61 "2007-02-01T21:56:16Z")
[QUOTE=Plan B] Oct.-Dec. 2005 667,431 Jan.-March 2006 116,771 April-June 2006 155,833 July-Sept. 2006 171,146 Not exactly an upward trend if you ask me. [/QUOTE] Actually, it does look like an upward trend (not really enough of a sample size at this point, but if you think it’s a good metric to measure the economy, I’ll happily use it). Every quarter has increased since the first quarter after the new laws went into effect. Oops. ---
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2007, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-economy-is-doing-great/388764/62 "2007-02-01T22:02:58Z")
What’s with the comparing of this year’s economy to 2002’s and calling it great? 2002 sucked big fat donkey balls, so if a year sucks somewhat smaller donkey balls we call it great? Tossing out CCI numbers of 110 looks pretty good compared to 2002, but looks like shit compared to the late 90’s, where it was well over 150 for a prolonged period. The economy has definitely improved when compared to the past few years, but it would have been difficult for it not to. Heck, it might even someday be great, but not today. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2007, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-economy-is-doing-great/388764/63 "2007-02-02T03:23:07Z")
What, you think the good economy is just happening now? The U.S. is currently in the 20th consecutive quarter of economic growth. The White House has released an [Economic Fact Sheet](http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/01/20070131-3.html). I didn’t spot any falsehoods in it. The numbers are sourced to the CBO, the Bureau for Labor Statistics, and other accepted mainstream sources. Let’s run down some of the facts: > [@](#): > > **Our Economy Has Created More Than 7.2 Million Jobs Since August 2003.** Payroll jobs increased 167,000 in December alone, and have increased by more than 600,000 jobs in the past four months. That’s not quite at Bill Clinton’s pace (22 million over 8 years), but better than most other 2-term administrations. And Bill Clinton had the big tech bubble. This represents 41 consecutive months of job growth. So it’s not exactly a new thing. > [@](#): > > The Unemployment Rate Was 4.5 Percent In December. This is well below the 5.1 percent average rate for 2005, and below the average of each of the past four decades. 4.5% is very close to full employment, and some economists are saying that it could go a little lower. > [@](#): > > Real Wages Rose 1.7 Percent During 2006. This rate of growth is substantially faster than the average rate of the 1990s, meaning an extra $1,030 last year for the typical family of four with two wage earners. According to this page, the last business cycle in the '90’s under Clinton actually had an overall wage decrease. > [@](#): > > \*\*Real After-Tax Personal Income Per Person Has Increased Over $2,800 – Or 9.6 Percent – During This Administration. \*\* This one is important - when you add up wage growth plus tax cuts, the average person has seen take-home pay increase almost 10% in the last six years. During the 8 years of the Clinton administration it only went up about 7%. And it’s not just the rich that did better: > [@](#): > > **America’s Job Growth Has Been Broad-Based.** Job gains were spread broadly across major sectors in 2006. Twenty-five percent of job growth within the service-providing sector was in health and education-related jobs. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics) > > **Jobless Rates Are Down Among Most Major Groups.** The unemployment rate dropped for each of the four educational-attainment groups, falling most among those without a high school degree. The jobless rate in this group fell 0.7 percentage point to 6.6 percent during 2006, and has fallen 1.5 percentage points over the past two years. The unemployment rate fell sharply during 2006 among Hispanics and blacks (1.1 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively). (Bureau Of Labor Statistics) > > \*\*Wages For Production Workers Are Growing Faster Than Inflation.\*\*Annual Wage Growth Is Faster Now Than In The 1990s. The real hourly wage growth of 1.7 percent in the past 12 months is substantially faster than the annual average growth of 0.3 percent in the 1990s. > > **Wage Growth Now Is Stronger Than In The Previous Economic Expansion During The 1990s.** The cumulative growth in real hourly wages during this economic expansion – from the recession until now – has also been 1.7 percent. At this same point in the 1990s expansion, wages had fallen by 0.4 percent. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics) > > **Real hourly wages (base hourly wage rates plus commissions, overtime premiums, and bonuses) for production and non-supervisory workers (about 80 percent of the workforce) grew 1.7 percent over the past 12 months.** The supervisory workers who tend to have above-average earnings are not included in this figure. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics) > > **The United States Is A Mobile Society.** About 20 percent of Americans in the bottom income quintile move up over one-year periods and about 40 to 50 percent move up within 10 to 20 years. (Treasury Department) > > **The Poverty Rate Is Declining.** The poverty rate decreased from 12.7 percent in 2004 to 12.6 percent in 2005. The poverty rate is now lower than in all but one year in the 1980s and 1990s, and is far below its most recent peak of 15.1 percent in 1993. Now, to trade: > [@](#): > > **Exports Are At A Record High – More People Around The World Are Buying American Products Than Ever Before.** U.S. exports of goods and services over the first 11 months of 2006 totaled $1.3 trillion, and imports amounted to $2.0 trillion. The trade surplus in services over this period was $65 billion. (Bureau Of Economic Analysis) > > **Exports Are Helping Drive Economic Growth.** In the last four quarters, real exports grew 9.1 percent – more than three times as fast as overall GDP. (Bureau Of Economic Analysis) And some other macro indicators: > [@](#): > > **Over The Past Year, America’s Real GDP Has Grown By 3 Percent – The Fastest Rate Of Any Major Industrialized Country.** America’s unemployment rate is 4.5 percent – the second-lowest unemployment rate of any major industrialized country. (Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Bureau Of Economic Analysis, International Statistics Offices) > > **Rising Productivity Is Driving U.S. Competitiveness.** The United States has experienced the fastest increase in productivity growth among major industrialized countries since the early 1990s, and U.S. productivity has accelerated during the past few years. From 2000 to 2005, U.S. productivity (measured as GDP per hour worked) grew at annual rate of 2.5 percent, compared to 2.2 percent between 1995 and 2000, and 1.2 percent between 1990 and 1995. **Only the United States and Japan have had faster productivity growth in the most recent period than they did in the 1990s.** (Organization For Economic Cooperation And Development) > > **Household Wealth Is At An All-Time High Of More Than $54 Trillion.** According to the Federal Reserve Board, real median household net worth increased 12 percent from 1998 to 2004. > > **The Homeownership Rate Is Near Its Record High, And The Number Of Homeowners Is At Record Level.** According to the Census Bureau, a record 75 million families own the home they are living in, and the homeownership rate, at 68.7 percent, is near its record high. Seems like a pretty good economy to me. ---
**Author:** ![pantom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/34f0e0/32.png) [@pantom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pantom)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2007, 4:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-economy-is-doing-great/388764/64 "2007-02-02T04:06:44Z")
Maybe I’m only sane when the wind blows southerly. No, it’s winter, so must be north-northwest. Hmm… Anyways, the arguments on the side of the economy being “great” are too stoopid to even attempt to answer. Pretty good sounds right, until you run across something like this: > [@](#): > > [2006 Personal Savings Fall to 74-Year Low](http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070201/economy.html?.v=9&.pf=banking-budgeting) > > WASHINGTON (AP) – People once again spent everything they made and then some last year, pushing the personal savings rate to the lowest level since the Great Depression more than seven decades ago. > … > The savings rate has been negative for an entire year only four times in history – in 2005 and 2006 and in 1933 and 1932. However, the reasons for the decline in the savings rate were vastly different during the two periods. > During the Great Depression, when one-fourth of the labor force was without a job, people dipped into savings in an effort to meet the basic necessities of shelter and clothing. > Economists have put forward various reasons to explain the current lack of savings. These range from a feeling on the part of some people that they do not need to save because of the run-up in their investments such as homes and stock portfolios to an effort by many middle-class wage earners to maintain their current lifestyles even though their wage gains have been depressed by the effects of global competition. The stupidity on display in this article is truly breathtaking. The reason why savings is so low is, in fact, the same reason as during the Depression: people feel that their economic futures are in danger, and are spending in a desperate attempt to cover up this fact to themselves and their friends and family. Eventually, of course, the music stops, and the 300 million people circling around the 300,000 available seats find themselves mostly stranded. At the point that you’re putting yourself deeper and deeper in debt, you feel kind of numb: you don’t really acknowledge your indebtedness, and you think, like Scarlett in GWTW, that you’ll deal with it tomorrow. Assuming tomorrow comes, you find that the debt you have to work off is pretty onerous. If you’re lucky enough to actually work it all off, then you imitate Scarlett in that other memorable scene, shaking your fist at the sky and swearing you’ll never be in debt again. As long as the US has the world’s reserve currency, and can therefore price its debt in its own paper, this oath has all the efficacy of a New Year’s resolution after the third scotch. The temptation that comes with being able to pay for goods in rapidly depreciating paper is simply irresistible. The wind must be blowing north-northwest. Carry on. ---
**Author:** ![Plan\_B](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3ec8ea/32.png) [@Plan\_B](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Plan_B)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2007, 5:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-economy-is-doing-great/388764/65 "2007-02-02T05:18:23Z")
[QUOTE=pantom] The stupidity on display in this article is truly breathtaking. The reason why savings is so low is, in fact, the same reason as during the Depression: people feel that their economic futures are in danger, and are spending in a desperate attempt to cover up this fact to themselves and their friends and family. [/QUOTE] Well, that’s certainly an original idea. Even the article YOU choose to cite says: “Economists have put forward various reasons to explain the current lack of savings. These range from a feeling on the part of some people that they do not need to save because of the run-up in their investments such as homes and stock portfolios to an effort by many middle-class wage earners to maintain their current lifestyles even though their wage gains have been depressed by the effects of global competition.” In other words, first, economists are not sure why this is happening. Second, there are numerous possible explanations, as opposed to the single truth that you cite. Third, the first possibility cited is a positive comment on the economy. And by the way, the second possibility is silly; not a complete idea in any case-doesn’t speak to the “why” at all. I don’t know why you cite an article, contradict it, and then call other people stupd. In my case, this is the first year since I got out of college that I’m in the negative savings group. Why? Because my investments have increased so much that I’d be an idiot not to start spending some of it. If I keep contributing to savings, it would be for the sole purpose of making sure that my kids are capable of having a much higher standard of living than I ever had. I love the kids, but enough is enough. ---
**Author:** ![pantom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/34f0e0/32.png) [@pantom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pantom)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2007, 5:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-economy-is-doing-great/388764/66 "2007-02-02T05:20:11Z")
Anecdote not equal data. And that economists have no clue is not exactly news. ---
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2007, 11:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-economy-is-doing-great/388764/67 "2007-02-02T11:53:14Z")
[QUOTE=Sam Stone] The U.S. is currently in the 20th consecutive quarter of economic growth. [/QUOTE] Once again, you toss out meaningless statistics. Ecomonic growth is almost a given every single year. How did this metric look from 1932 to 1938? We already picked apart the indicators provided in the OP and they remain picked apart. After that, you two keep either rehashing those same indicators from other sources, or find other indicators that you think demonstrate how great the economy is doing. I’m tired of playing “Whack - a - mole” with every tiny little meaningless metric you find, or “refind” for that matter. There are thousands of economic indicators to choose from, and if one cherry-picked them, you could easily show that the economy did great during the Great Depression. Keep up the good work. ---
**Author:** ![Cheesesteak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cheesesteak/32/3694_2.png) [@Cheesesteak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cheesesteak)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2007, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-economy-is-doing-great/388764/68 "2007-02-02T13:07:12Z")
[QUOTE=pantom] And that economists have no clue is not exactly news. [/QUOTE] I guess the problem is that these guys with the PhD in economics, who have studied the topic for decades are relying on their own opinions instead of consulting YOU for the one true answer. I’m also curious how you determined that people spend more when their financial future is not secure. I’m pretty sure that contradicts traditional thought on spending patterns, and it sure as hell contradicts my thoughts on spending my own money. Besides the unrealized capital gains issue\* I wonder if an aging population has anything to do with this. More older folks, more people in retirement to dip into their savings for all of their spending. Net savings go down without any significant change in the behavior of your average working person. I fail to see how this economy is on shakier ground than the latter days of the Clinton economy, where everyone was talking about the dot-com bubble getting ready to burst. - The income stats do not include unrealized capital gains, but people often consider them income, and borrow/spend against them. ---
**Author:** ![pantom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/34f0e0/32.png) [@pantom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pantom)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2007, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-economy-is-doing-great/388764/69 "2007-02-03T01:22:48Z")
The boomers have only begun to retire, so the argument that already they are dipping into savings to fund their retirement is not supported by the evidence. The workforce is continuing to grow, which means that even though, demographically, the cohort close to retirement age is larger than the cohort of people eligible to start entering the workforce, not enough have retired to even slow the growth of the workforce. That’s one. Secondly, the cohort of people in their prime savings years, between 45 and 55, is in fact the largest in the population at the moment. So if anything what we should be seeing is a lot of saving, over rather than under the average. In today’s economy, finally, it makes sense to spend rather than save, since credit is very widely available, and inflation makes it more expensive to get things later rather than sooner. Well, unless you actually believe in [hedonics](http://www.mises.org/story/1873). In short, what we are seeing is not explicable by demographics, but is explicable by way of people attempting to keep their heads above water, in terms of their accustomed standard of living. Eventually, either they will give up or incomes will go up enough to cover the difference. If the former, we have a recession on the way. If the latter, not. We shall see. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2007, 1:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-economy-is-doing-great/388764/70 "2007-02-03T01:52:18Z")
[QUOTE=Sam Stone] What, you think the good economy is just happening now? The U.S. is currently in the 20th consecutive quarter of economic growth. The White House has released an [Economic Fact Sheet](http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/01/20070131-3.html). I didn’t spot any falsehoods in it. The numbers are sourced to the CBO, the Bureau for Labor Statistics, and other accepted mainstream sources. Let’s run down some of the facts: \ Our Economy Has Created More Than 7.2 Million Jobs Since August 2003. Payroll jobs increased 167,000 in December alone, and have increased by more than 600,000 jobs in the past four months. That’s not quite at Bill Clinton’s pace (22 million over 8 years), but better than most other 2-term administrations. And Bill Clinton had the big tech bubble. [/QUOTE] One thing that link (from [whitehouse.gov](http://whitehouse.gov)) doesn’t mention is that the economy must grow by 150,000 jobs a month to stay even with population growth. [Cite.](http://www.epi.org/content.cfm/webfeatures_econindicators_jobspict_20060804) There was a gowth of jobs pretty much throught the Bush presidency,just not fast enough to keep uup. 600K jobs in the past four months is standstill, not an improvement in the job picture. We’d also need to measure the quality of the jobs to see how happy we should be. BTW, my link talks about a slowdown in job growth last year. The point of it is to give a cite as to the needed job creation numbers, not to talk about old news. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2007, 1:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-economy-is-doing-great/388764/71 "2007-02-03T01:52:28Z")
It might also be explicable by actually including [Pre-Tax Savings](http://www.investors.com/editorial/editorialcontent.asp?secid=1501&status=article&id=255226488990121), which are generally not counted in the ‘savings rate’. The big story here might just be the rise of the 401(k) as the primary savings instrument: > [@](#): > > Those who say a low savings rate is bad for individual households are correct. Problem is, there’s no evidence Americans aren’t saving much. Rather, the “savings rate” doesn’t capture what they save. > > Most working Americans sock away a portion of their paycheck each month into a 401(k). This comes out of pretax income. But since the savings rate is derived by subtracting personal consumption from disposable income — that is, after-tax income — the money built up in these accounts isn’t counted. Yet, 401(k) and similar savings plans totaled about $3.2 trillion at the end of 2005. > > How about housing? To many — if not most — people, a house isn’t just a place to live. It’s a form of long-term saving, an investment we can either pass on to our children or cash in after we retire. > > For the purpose of calculating savings, the money we put out for our mortgages each month is treated as consumption. In other words, your home may be savings to you, but you’re treated by the government’s accounting as if you were a renter. > > Worse, the savings rate doesn’t include a lot of things that should, by logic, be counted in any meaningful measure of savings. Like capital gains on stocks and houses, equity in private businesses, and the gains from mortgage refinancings, which often end up invested. > > But if savings doesn’t matter, what does? In a word, wealth. > > Net wealth — the total value of all assets, including stocks, bonds, bank accounts, houses and retirement funds, after subtracting debt — is about $54 trillion, up a hefty $16 trillion since President Bush cut taxes in mid-2003. If you divide that $54 trillion by America’s 114 million or so households, you get an average net worth of roughly $474,000. > > So you can see why Americans aren’t putting away money at the end of the month from disposable income. They don’t need to. Or they’re already doing it but it isn’t measured. ---
**Author:** ![pantom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/34f0e0/32.png) [@pantom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pantom)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2007, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-economy-is-doing-great/388764/72 "2007-02-03T02:09:37Z")
All true, **Sam**. But 401(k)'s only replace, inadequately IMO, the old defined-benefit pension plans. You’d have to show evidence that the money going into 401(k)'s is more than what used to go, historically, into defined-benefit plans through employer contributions. Only the net difference between the two could count towards additional savings in today’s environment. Housing wealth has always been a factor. If anything, the effect of that going into the future will be muted, since the last few years have seen a worldwide surge in residential real estate prices, and a reversion to the mean is a reasonable thing to expect. Capital gains ex real estate were obviously larger in the late nineties than they are today, in the aggregate, here in the US. The broader indices are either flat or only marginally higher than they were at the start of the century. Point being, that if the calculation of savings hasn’t changed, the fact that the trend is down, and accelerating to the downside, is still good information. ---
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2007, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-economy-is-doing-great/388764/73 "2007-02-03T02:56:15Z")
[QUOTE=Sam Stone] It might also be explicable by actually including [Pre-Tax Savings](http://www.investors.com/editorial/editorialcontent.asp?secid=1501&status=article&id=255226488990121), which are generally not counted in the ‘savings rate’. The big story here might just be the rise of the 401(k) as the primary savings instrument: [/QUOTE] At the end of 2004, the average 401k balance was [lower than it was in 1999](http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B9BDCAB8A-7709-466E-82B3-EAED99B1EF3C%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=). Oh, I do love how your cite calculates average net worth to make us feel all warm and fuzzy. The average net worth of Bill Gates and myself is tens of billions of dollars. I guess I should retire. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2007, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-economy-is-doing-great/388764/74 "2007-02-03T03:31:51Z")
There are many, many factors that can change the savings rate. Among them: - The demise of the depression-era generation. Big savers. Living through the depression made many people very careful to keep a nest-egg. Most of the people who were adults during the depression are now gone. - The improvement in retirement benefits for the average worker. Not just the 401(k), but company pension plans, stock plans, options, and other instruments that increase personal wealth but don’t show up in the savings-rate. - The aging of the population. As more people retire, they stop being savers and start becoming consumers. - Confidence in Social Security and Medicare. As more and more people see retirement looming on the near horizon, they may actually be fairly confident that they’ll see their retirement benefits. Young people have far less confidence that the money they put into SS will be there when they retire. - Increase in health insurance and other types of health coverage. One reason to save was to put money away in case of a health emergency. If more people have health insurance, they have less reason to save. - Smaller families. One big reason people used to save was for their kid’s education. If you had four children who all wanted to go to college, you had to save a LOT of money to send them. Today, the average family has one or two children. Sending one kid requires less savings than sending four. - Low unemployment. People saved more when it was common to go months between jobs. If you can get a job any time, you’ll feel less need to save for emergencies. - ‘Investing’ in your home. A lot of people today see their homes as being a primary source of retirement funds. I know we do - by the time we retire, we will have hundreds of thousands of dollars of equity in our home. 50 years ago, people lived in small homes that they would stay in right through their retirement. A lot of people today have large homes that they plan to sell when they retire. This may or may not be a wise strategy, but it’s no doubt true. And you skew this with tax policy - by making home interest deductible, you push more people into home ownership. Plus all the other reasons, good and bad, that have already been mentioned. Frankly, I think the savings rate is one of those unintended consequences of government policy. There are so many reasons why people might choose to to change their savings habits, and many of them are influenced by government action. It’s not all about easy credit and predatory credit card companies. A new social program can displace the need to save. Changes to the tax code incentivize all kinds of changes in consumer habits. Programs that look after the elderly might cause their children to cut back on savings required to look after mom and dad in their dotage. I think the savings rate is an extremely complex thing to understand. There are so many plans, programs, incentives, and pressures to spend that it can be very difficult sorting them all out. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2007, 11:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-economy-is-doing-great/388764/75 "2007-02-03T11:24:22Z")
Sam, I believe you’re Canadian, and using a Canadian view to discuss the US economy. It’s not like to like. Retirement benefits are going down except for a few people that get rich on stock options; no one in america thinks that SS will take care of their retirement; health care coverage is not increasing; low unemployment has already been debunked in this thread; investing in homes has always been the american way. ---
**Author:** ![Plan\_B](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3ec8ea/32.png) [@Plan\_B](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Plan_B)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2007, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-economy-is-doing-great/388764/76 "2007-02-03T14:49:52Z")
[QUOTE=China Guy] . ; low unemployment has already been debunked in this thread; [/QUOTE] No, not exactly. It was pointed out that Jonah Goldberg overstated the case a bit and I didn’t know that when I wrote the OP. And I acknowledged the error. But the main point still stands: **we have no unemployment problem**. In fact, I believe that one of the posts even makes the case that 4.5% unemployment is, in realilty, about as low as it can get. There are always people working off the books, etc. China Guy, if you believe there is an unemployment problem, please explain why. I’d rather learn about it here than in the office on Monday. ---
**Author:** ![Plan\_B](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3ec8ea/32.png) [@Plan\_B](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Plan_B)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2007, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-economy-is-doing-great/388764/77 "2007-02-03T14:52:35Z")
[QUOTE=DMC] At the end of 2004, the average 401k balance was [lower than it was in 1999](http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B9BDCAB8A-7709-466E-82B3-EAED99B1EF3C%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=). Oh, I do love how your cite calculates average net worth to make us feel all warm and fuzzy. The average net worth of Bill Gates and myself is tens of billions of dollars. I guess I should retire. [/QUOTE] Why do you cite data from 1999 and 2004? Why not 2002 (the end of the Clinton Recession) and 2006? I think if a conservative did that you might accuse him of cherry picking. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_C](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e5b9ba/32.png) [@Captain\_C](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_C)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2007, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-economy-is-doing-great/388764/78 "2007-02-03T14:57:34Z")
Unemployment may be fairly low by these standards, but how about our Underemployment? I myself have a bachelor’s degree, and work part time Private Security due to lack of other options in the area. I’d say I’m not unemployed, but I am definitely underemployed. ---
**Author:** ![Plan\_B](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3ec8ea/32.png) [@Plan\_B](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Plan_B)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2007, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-economy-is-doing-great/388764/79 "2007-02-03T15:46:11Z")
[QUOTE=Captain\_C] Unemployment may be fairly low by these standards, but how about our Underemployment? I myself have a bachelor’s degree, and work part time Private Security due to lack of other options in the area. I’d say I’m not unemployed, but I am definitely underemployed. [/QUOTE] Interesting question. Do you have any stats on underemployment? Now vs. other times in history? US vs. other countries? ---
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2007, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-economy-is-doing-great/388764/80 "2007-02-03T16:56:54Z")
[QUOTE=Plan B] Why do you cite data from 1999 and 2004? Why not 2002 (the end of the Clinton Recession) and 2006? I think if a conservative did that you might accuse him of cherry picking. [/QUOTE] Because Sam was using it to show that the “savings” numbers weren’t showing the real picture. I showed that even including 401k doesn’t make our savings picture very pretty. If you want to say the economy is doing great compared to 2002 (the Clinton recession, huh?), I don’t think anyone will argue with you. There aren’t many years that wouldn’t look great when compared to that one. If you want to say the economy is doing great with no qualifier, then we have vastly different definitions of “great”. It was doing great in the late 90’s, so if you want to see if it’s doing great now, compare it to that time. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-economy-is-doing-great/388764.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-economy-is-doing-great/388764.md?page=5)