# The Effects of the Arab Spring? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 11, 2011, 4:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-effects-of-the-arab-spring/595913 "2011-09-11T04:11:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2011, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-effects-of-the-arab-spring/595913/21 "2011-09-12T16:44:45Z")
“Organ harvesters”? Seriously? ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2011, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-effects-of-the-arab-spring/595913/22 "2011-09-12T18:57:36Z")
> [@Dick\_Dastardly](#): > > And they’re not going to be Israel-friendly. They’re not going to remain silent when the organ harvesters kill Egyptians or Palestinians and they’re going to demand that their government end the harvester blockade of Gaza, something the current Egyptian interim government have basically continued to support. **Dick Dastardly** , this is a formal warning for being a jerk. You’ve been warned repeatedly for breaking the rules, and the staff will be discussing your posting privileges. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2011, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-effects-of-the-arab-spring/595913/23 "2011-09-12T19:43:34Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > “Organ harvesters”? Seriously? Egypt is known for it’s[black market organ harvesting](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29740869/ns/health-health_care/t/black-market-organ-trade-still-thrives-egypt/#.Tm5gdNSBsrY). ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2011, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-effects-of-the-arab-spring/595913/24 "2011-09-12T19:49:50Z")
Short answer: it’s too early to tell. Long answer: It’s tooooooooo eaaaaaarrrrrlllllllly tooooooooooo teeeeeeeeelllllllll. ahem The dust has hardly settled, and we don’t know for sure how things will shake out. Egypt is particularly worrisome, as a massive percent of their population is agitating for, at the least, a situation which could very easily see Hamas rearmed and resupplied (and therefore a new war launched which would bring even more misery to the people of Gaza). Outright military conflict on the nation level is unlikely for Egypt, but not impossible. If anything, the synergy between Turkey and Egypt might prove disastrous, as Turkey expelled Israeli diplomats (itself the first step towards war and a definitive means of ending diplomacy and communication itself) and has pledged an escort for the next attempt at breaking the naval blockade of Gaza. There is a very real chance of things spiraling way out of control if a shooting war breaks out between Israel and Turkey. Hopefully we’re not at the point where we’d see events culminate in the creation of the world’s largest radioactive glass parking lot, but wars start when and where we choose, they don’t finish how or when we’d perfer… Time will tell, but my money is on Egypt as the country to watch in the upcoming months/years, and events having the potential for a very, very nasty regional war if cooler heads don’t prevail. ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2011, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-effects-of-the-arab-spring/595913/25 "2011-09-12T20:56:50Z")
> [@Captain\_Amazing](#): > > What do you expect, though? I’m a Westerner, and so are most of the people on here. I’m going to judge things as good or bad depending on how I’m affected. What le Capitaine is getting at is that when the West and in particular the Americans undertake some bombing and invasions, they chant to the world their great concern for the bettering of the life of the populations and by this the expansion of the democracy in these countries. Except these values of democracy and liberties fall away as values of interest when if in any slight way the politics of the USA is challenged, for example. And then we get the responses like this, “oh why should we be caring?” I am in fact very pro west, against the dominance of the leftism in what is called the third world, and very anti tiers mondisme which is a terrible disabilitating ideology, but the shrugging racism of certain types of discourses when their hypocricies are identified is disturbing to me and damages those of us who would be for the West. > [@Capitaine\_Zombie](#): > > Well, that’s something that constantly puzzles me on this board, as it seems to come up regularly. The obvious answer about wondering if the Arab Spring is beneficial to the people actually revolting is wondering whether it will improve _their_ life, not mine. > > I’m not trying to play Jesus or Yoda here but the lack of empathy it suggests is troubling. Et voilà, we are the useful idiots if we believe that a question that might be posed is different than the implication of 'these turbulent creatures, were they not less difficult with dictators?" > [@CitizenPained](#): > > Egypt: Destabilization. Corrupt has replaced corrupt, and probably not for the better. The Question is how would you know what has replaced what? Yes, of course the current Egypt is less convient for Israel, or more particularly the Israeli government that wishes to have quiet neighbours while it exacts what it wants from the territories occupied. We can not otherwise say if the Egyptian government is corrupt now or not. We can say it is less convenient to the greater Israel factions. > [@](#): > > Tunisia: Unsure. Maybe Capitaine has more-informed viewpoint? (For being a French, I mean.) Tunisia is more free than it has been since the fall of Bourguiba. There is no question of that. Of course there is no change in relationship to Israel and its occuption, so perhaps to some kinds of analysis it matters not that there is greater freedom, as the creatures still do not keep silent. > [@](#): > > Libya & the NATO Adventure: Ask whomever it was selling oil to. this means what? Lybia is now free to make its own contracts. Lybia sold oil to the Nato members before, it will sell it after. It is stupid and dishonest to claim that liberation was for oil. If oil was the matter deciding, then no French and no British would have bombed, as they were making good business with Qadafi. > [@](#): > > To answer the OP’s question, I believe the region is less stable and an Arab-Israeli war (if not an intensified Cold War, complete with serious political and economic ramifications with smatterings of violence) is coming 'round the bend. In the dreams of the Israelis they will have war so as to whiten their policies. A cold war, it is deserved. > [@](#): > > Also: Does anyone know if in every case, there was self-immolation? Is this how you protest in the Muslim world? What is evenign the meaning of such a question? The protest by self burning began in Tunisia and it was so unusual of its desperation that is got attention, and by its desperation it caused a revolution. IS this how you protest? It is, in Sri Lanka too. In Cambodge too. In other places of various religions. It is the act of desperate, depressed people. Perhaps Israels simply make more colonies when they are depressed? A question of equal intelligence. > [@Magiver](#): > > We live in a stable country and our perspective is that of stability. Do you think Egypt and the other countries are more stable or less stable now? They are more free. Was USA more stable in 1791? Than under the Crown? Questions that reveal so much. > [@Alessan](#): > > In an ideal world, Egypt doesn’t let terrorists cross into Israel from Egypt. True, but then Israel should not make bombings indiscriminately. Or the current Isreali govenrment, it is unfair to make them the same. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2011, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-effects-of-the-arab-spring/595913/26 "2011-09-12T21:11:16Z")
> [@Ramira](#): > > True, but then Israel should not make bombings indiscriminately. Or the current Isreali govenrment, it is unfair to make them the same. In the case being discussed, the Israeli military was chasing gunmen who had attacked Israeli civilians, while apparently dressed in Egyptian Army uniforms, and some actual Egyptian soldiers got caught in the crossfire. A tragedy, but no more than an accident typical of the chaos of battle; an Israeli soldier was also killed by friendly fire in the same incident. ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2011, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-effects-of-the-arab-spring/595913/27 "2011-09-12T22:17:15Z")
It is not a “typical” accident in normal countries when the fire crosses the border, even if some excuses about uniformes are invented. It is for Israel to remember that it is not the wild wild west and that there are borders. If of course the current govenrment cares about any relationships or friendships. That is not clear at all. Which is said. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2011, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-effects-of-the-arab-spring/595913/28 "2011-09-12T22:25:40Z")
It was Egypt that violated the border by failing to close it; Israel’s actions were a direct result. If the Egyptian authorities were in control of the Sinai like they should have been, this wouldn’t have happened. There is a “wild west” there - and it’s Egypt’s fault. ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2011, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-effects-of-the-arab-spring/595913/29 "2011-09-12T22:44:01Z")
It is amusing that this would not be a very convincing argument with any other border for the manner of the incident. But this is now a distraction from the subject. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2011, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-effects-of-the-arab-spring/595913/30 "2011-09-12T23:13:23Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > Egypt is known for it’s[black market organ harvesting](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29740869/ns/health-health_care/t/black-market-organ-trade-still-thrives-egypt/#.Tm5gdNSBsrY). Which is irrelevant, given the sentences talking about killing and blockading. The more pertinent link is [this one](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/dec/21/israeli-pathologists-harvested-organs), (which prompted an acrimonius thread when it appeared), and using that term in the context of “kill[ing] Egyptians or Palestinians” and “the harvester blockade of Gaza” is trolling. [/Moderating] ---
**Author:** ![Farmer\_Jane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/bbe5ce/32.png) [@Farmer\_Jane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Farmer_Jane)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2011, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-effects-of-the-arab-spring/595913/31 "2011-09-12T23:19:18Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > In an ideal world, Egypt doesn’t let terrorists cross into Israel from Egypt. Beat me to it. ---
**Author:** ![Farmer\_Jane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/bbe5ce/32.png) [@Farmer\_Jane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Farmer_Jane)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2011, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-effects-of-the-arab-spring/595913/32 "2011-09-12T23:29:21Z")
> [@Ramira](#): > > We can not otherwise say if the Egyptian government is corrupt now or not. We can say it is less convenient to the greater Israel factions. You…think that arresting people for the most bogus of offenses -be it an innocent Jewish American for ‘spying’ or a Egyptian for protesting - is an improvement? Military tribunals for civilians is democracy? If the Egyptian military forces are [acting just like Mubarak](http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/08/egypts-military-doing-exactly-what-mubarak-did-to-stifle-democrats/) in the name of change and ‘Arab Spring’, then they have it worse. This is the Egyptian shot at getting it right. > [@](#): > > Perhaps Israels simply make more colonies when they are depressed? A question of equal intelligence. :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Rune](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e68b1a/32.png) [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2011, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-effects-of-the-arab-spring/595913/33 "2011-09-12T23:42:16Z")
I don’t think any Arab nation is stupid enough to engage Israel in anything but a clandestine war, and it’s way too early to judge the results of the Arab Spring. Give it 10-20 years and we’ll see. Personally I think all the nations will be better off for it. Except Yemen, which is a lost case anyway. Also, as long as outright war is avoided, then what benefits or does not benefit Israel is way too narrow a prism to view the changes in. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2011, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-effects-of-the-arab-spring/595913/34 "2011-09-13T00:02:08Z")
> [@Ramira](#): > > They are more free. they are only more free to riot. There haven’t been elections yet and the jury is a long way off on the direction the country takes. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2011, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-effects-of-the-arab-spring/595913/35 "2011-09-13T00:03:58Z")
> [@tomndebb](#): > > Which is irrelevant, given the sentences talking about killing and blockading. The more pertinent link is [this one](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/dec/21/israeli-pathologists-harvested-organs), (which prompted an acrimonius thread when it appeared), and using that term in the context of “kill[ing] Egyptians or Palestinians” and “the harvester blockade of Gaza” is trolling. > > [/Moderating] I was addressing Alessan’s question of the practice not your moderating. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2011, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-effects-of-the-arab-spring/595913/36 "2011-09-13T01:33:03Z")
In regards to Egypt and corruption, I am exceptionally concerned about these noises about extending and enhancing the Emergency Law. [http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/egypts-military-threatens-to-revive-emergency-law-2353683.html](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/egypts-military-threatens-to-revive-emergency-law-2353683.html) I have great hopes for the future of the Egyptian People, but I fear that perhaps there will be some issues between then and now. Ramira, if you would care to comment on the matter? ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2011, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-effects-of-the-arab-spring/595913/37 "2011-09-13T01:42:14Z")
I suspect it’s difficult to deal with corruption if it’s intrenched in the social fabric of the country. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2011, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-effects-of-the-arab-spring/595913/38 "2011-09-13T02:04:23Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > I was addressing Alessan’s question of the practice not your moderating. I did not think you were challenging any staff posts; I just figured you missed the point of Dick’s actual intentions. ---
**Author:** ![Kobal2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kobal2/32/20_2.png) [@Kobal2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kobal2)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2011, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-effects-of-the-arab-spring/595913/39 "2011-09-13T02:58:53Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > So is **Capitaine Zombie**. Viewing things in terms of whether they’re good or bad for you is perfectly understandable, but kind of puts the lie to claims like “we went to Iraq to free the Iraqi people”. > > That’s not to say that you made that claim (or agree with those who did), but if we’re going around freeing people on the condition that they serve our interests afterwards **we’re not really freeing them at all.** But of course this is tautological - you can’t free someone else, by definition. Oh, you can beat the bully who’s been keeping him down. Which only does one thing: establish that you’re bigger, harder, tougher than the previous bully and just as he kept the “freed” man down, so could you if you so wished. You might or might not wish it right just this minute, but there’s a perverse sword of Damocles hanging still that everyone involved is aware of. And of course, the freed man now owes you, does he not ? So how can you call that man free ? He’s just a slave to another master. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2011, 3:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-effects-of-the-arab-spring/595913/40 "2011-09-13T03:37:08Z")
> [@Chen019](#): > > I would have thought that would be a probable outcome. That is why I couldn’t understand why neocons would be supporting the uprisings. Well depends on which revolt. > [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > So is **Capitaine Zombie**. Viewing things in terms of whether they’re good or bad for you is perfectly understandable, but kind of puts the lie to claims like “we went to Iraq to free the Iraqi people”. > > That’s not to say that you made that claim (or agree with those who did), but if we’re going around freeing people on the condition that they serve our interests afterwards we’re not really freeing them at all. Freedom does not mean freedom to start aggressive, revanchist wars; freedom does not mean freedom to commit genocide; freedom is not naked totalitarian mob rule. > [@Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](#): > > As far as worrying about what all this means for “us”. I see no reason to think anything other than the Arab Spring is super-awesome for the USA. They aren’t a threat to “us”. Hell, Egypt, Tunisia and Libya could get together tomorrow and through luck and genius wipe Israel off the map. It doesn’t mean anything negative for the USA as long as we play our cards right. Israel and Turkey are the only functional democracies in the Middle East. In addition Israel is one of our closest allies. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-effects-of-the-arab-spring/595913.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-effects-of-the-arab-spring/595913.md?page=3)