# The Elections... and the Insurgents **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 7, 2005, 1:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-elections-and-the-insurgents/283489 "2005-01-07T01:03:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 5\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Jake\_the\_Plumber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@Jake\_the\_Plumber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jake_the_Plumber)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2005, 1:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-elections-and-the-insurgents/283489/1 "2005-01-07T01:03:36Z")
The Iraqi insurgents can affect the outcome of the election in one of two ways. Positively, they can stow their guns and RPGs for a day and be a strong voting block. Negtatively, they can bring their toys with them and cripple the entire system. Or they can threaten the latter and do the former to increase their voting power. I think the latter is more likely, though. I mean, the Iraqi insurgents aren’t a single voting block, anyway. They also aren’t organized in any meaningful way, so their operations will probably be rather chaotic. There’s no mastermind to plan a coordinated vote or attack, and there’s no candidate for them to bully into office. To borrow from [he BBC](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4033263.stmt): > [@](#): > > More than 120 parties have so far been authorised to field candidates for the assembly. … The parties likely to figure prominently are the two Kurdish groupings, Kurdish Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, which are already firmly established, the Shia-led Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, SCIRI, the Islamic al-Dawa, and the Iraqi National Congress, an exile group chaired by one-time US ally Ahmed Chalabi. There have been suggestion that Mr Chalabi may lead a Shia list including supporters of Moqtada al-Sadr. I’m a bit dubious on the concept of Moqtada al-Sadr’s followers latching on to Chalabi… but in general, this appears to be a very fragmented race that will result in a fragmented government. With large segments of the Sunnis boycotting the election, the government will almost definitely be strongly Shi’ite and will lack much needed legitimacy and unification. Also, if you will note in the above quote, the major parties are highly religious in nature. I mean, “Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq” and “Islamic al-Dawa” aren’t exactly who the Bush Administration wants in control of Iraq - we may very well be approaching doing the previously unfathomable act of overthrowing the largest secular government in the region and replacing it with a theocracy. It numbs my head to consider this kind of thing being real and not a dream. The prospect of Chalabi actually winning the better portion of the votes is also very frightening to me. Of all the snakes in the grass, he’s the most corrupt and possibly threatening, neverminding the fact that he was entangled in the invade Iraq scheme from the beginning and may be viewed as the new Saddam - only he is looked at as an outsider and friend of America, which would hurt the legitimacy of the post-election government. > [@](#): > > Seats will then be allocated on the basis of proportional representation, which means that each party will get the same proportion of seats in the assembly as it gets in the popular vote. (Why can we do that in Iraq, but not here… d’oh) ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2005, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-elections-and-the-insurgents/283489/2 "2005-01-07T01:41:17Z")
What’s the debate? Even with 100% Sunni participation, the government will by majority Shi’a (did I spell that right?). There really isn’t any way around that. ---
**Author:** ![Jake\_the\_Plumber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@Jake\_the\_Plumber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jake_the_Plumber)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2005, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-elections-and-the-insurgents/283489/3 "2005-01-07T02:08:08Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > What’s the debate? Even with 100% Sunni participation, the government will by majority Shi’a (did I spell that right?). There really isn’t any way around that. Well, there are different shi’a, as you say, factions going around. And yes, there is some remote possibility that the government could gain credibility if it were properly organized and balanced, and able to represent the minority groups in question sufficiently. ---
**Author:** ![Rashak\_Mani](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ea666f/32.png) [@Rashak\_Mani](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rashak_Mani)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2005, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-elections-and-the-insurgents/283489/4 "2005-01-07T03:02:54Z")
I think Bush and the military are putting a lot of their credibility on the line for these elections to run in Jan 30th. So its no wonder every malcontent Iraqi is willing to disrupt the elections. If the elections somehow do get through with even a smallish credibility do you doubt that Bush will gloat about it ? If its a fiasco I bet Bush will just blame the “terrorists” and shrug. Still it would be a minor victory for the insurgency. As for the religious aspect of the parties… it certainly doesn’t bode well. (though Bush likes to mix religion and politics well enough.) The Shia won’t be that united either… so even a “majority” Shia will squabble over the crumbs. Don’t expect any kind of stable and united govt. ---
**Author:** ![Frankenstein\_Monster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/ccd318/32.png) [@Frankenstein\_Monster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frankenstein_Monster)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2005, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-elections-and-the-insurgents/283489/5 "2005-01-07T17:45:13Z")
[Fixed link in the OP](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4033263.stm) > [@Jake the Plumber](#): > > but in general, this appears to be a very fragmented race that will result in a fragmented government. Note that the link is extremely out-of-date. The “Shiites” are fielding a [single list of candidates](http://www.juancole.com/2004/12/platform-of-united-iraqi-alliance.html). One that includes Chalabi. The Kurds are also fielding a [single list](http://home.cogeco.ca/~kurdistan5/5-1-05-op-ed-hawramany-highlights-election-program.htm). > [@](#): > > I mean, “Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq” and “Islamic al-Dawa” aren’t exactly who the Bush Administration wants in control of Iraq. These are mainstream parties who were part of the IGC and now are part of the current Interim Government. Both appointed and approved by the US. The SCIRI holds the Minister of Finance, Adel Abdul Mahdi, and the al Da’wa holds the second president, Ibrahim Jaafari. > [@](#): > > we may very well be approaching doing the previously unfathomable act of overthrowing the largest secular government in the region and replacing it with a theocracy. He has already promised [to “accept” an Islamic government](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3755850.stm).