# The elephant in the room. 4063 active members **URL:** \ **Category:** About This Message Board\ **Created:** [June 4, 2017, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-elephant-in-the-room-4063-active-members/788139 "2017-06-04T23:07:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![steatopygia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steatopygia/32/3132_2.png) [@steatopygia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steatopygia)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2017, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-elephant-in-the-room-4063-active-members/788139/1 "2017-06-04T23:07:14Z")
Anyone concerned? Not an appropriate question? ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2017, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-elephant-in-the-room-4063-active-members/788139/2 "2017-06-04T23:09:46Z")
What’s the down side? Okay, we’ll never really all get to know each other. Some of us are doomed to remain mutual strangers, or maybe shallow acquaintances. It’s a really rich pool of experiences and viewpoints. And it’s GREAT when we ask, “So, what was that movie, where Lucille Ball was the saucy secretary to the hard-boiled P.I.?” Someone will know, and right quick! ---
**Author:** ![cochrane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cochrane/32/10441_2.png) [@cochrane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cochrane)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2017, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-elephant-in-the-room-4063-active-members/788139/3 "2017-06-04T23:11:45Z")
Oh, great! We’re going to have an initiation with an elephant? The goat was baaaad enough. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2017, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-elephant-in-the-room-4063-active-members/788139/4 "2017-06-04T23:13:56Z")
Concerned about what? ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2017, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-elephant-in-the-room-4063-active-members/788139/5 "2017-06-04T23:15:29Z")
4063…Is…is that a lot? Or not a lot? what’s the significance of the number? ---
**Author:** ![steatopygia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steatopygia/32/3132_2.png) [@steatopygia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steatopygia)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2017, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-elephant-in-the-room-4063-active-members/788139/6 "2017-06-04T23:17:11Z")
No, that is not a lot. The number is steadily declining. ---
**Author:** ![samclem](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@samclem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/samclem)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2017, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-elephant-in-the-room-4063-active-members/788139/7 "2017-06-04T23:18:38Z")
> [@steatopygia](#): > > No, that is not a lot. The number is steadily declining. Quote some statistics to bolster your conclusion. ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2017, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-elephant-in-the-room-4063-active-members/788139/8 "2017-06-04T23:24:07Z")
> [@steatopygia](#): > > No, that is not a lot. The number is steadily declining. Like global cooling. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2017, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-elephant-in-the-room-4063-active-members/788139/9 "2017-06-04T23:30:25Z")
It’s not a big number in an absolute sense. Probably a billion people speak English & have a computer, the two critical prereq’s for posting here. But without knowing how that number compares to 1, 2, 5, and 10 years ago we don’t know much that’s useful. Are we declining gently or in free fall? Have there been ups and downs or is it one way? What’s the seasonality? IMO things are always slower here in the northern hemisphere summer and pick back up when it gets cold where our majority lives. Beyond that, the place will stay up as long as the ad revenue supports it. Which comes from pageviews, not from posts. The link between volume of fresh posts and volume of fresh pageviews is fairly direct for people who live on here reading the flux of new stuff. But the volumes are almost completely disconnected for readers who find us via Googling for whatever, then they read a few posts or threads one afternoon and are never seen again. Those people don’t even have userIDs, so there’s no way for us peons to even guess at the volume and trend of those folks. I think MBs are last decade’s tech and are fading. But that need not be fatal. And definitely not promptly fatal. ---
**Author:** ![steatopygia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steatopygia/32/3132_2.png) [@steatopygia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steatopygia)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2017, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-elephant-in-the-room-4063-active-members/788139/10 "2017-06-04T23:43:25Z")
Just an observation, but here are some very random statistics. I used Wayback to check “active members” on the SDMB main page. I don’t think that the “active members” feature of vBulletin has always been enabled, so the first number I can find is from… 5/23/2011, 11,167 active members 9/1/2013, 6289 9/28/2015, 5410 2/20/2017, 4489 6/4/2017, 4063 ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2017, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-elephant-in-the-room-4063-active-members/788139/11 "2017-06-04T23:46:58Z")
Hmmm. I had assumed there were about 30 people and a lot of socks. Maybe it’s good! How does this compare to days of ol’? What does concern me about the elephant in the room is trying to scrub elephant porn from the hard drive. Nasty stuff. ---
**Author:** ![steatopygia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steatopygia/32/3132_2.png) [@steatopygia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steatopygia)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2017, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-elephant-in-the-room-4063-active-members/788139/12 "2017-06-04T23:49:08Z")
> [@samclem](#): > > Quote some statistics to bolster your conclusion. The above is in answer to this post. Those are random and not cherry picked. There is probably a more accurate method. ---
**Author:** ![x-ray\_vision](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/x-ray_vision/32/351_2.png) [@x-ray\_vision](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/x-ray_vision)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2017, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-elephant-in-the-room-4063-active-members/788139/13 "2017-06-04T23:52:46Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > And it’s GREAT when we ask, “So, what was that movie, where Lucille Ball was the saucy secretary to the hard-boiled P.I.?” Someone will know, and right quick! [The Dark Corner](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0038453/) ---
**Author:** ![zoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zoid/32/336_2.png) [@zoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zoid)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2017, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-elephant-in-the-room-4063-active-members/788139/14 "2017-06-05T00:03:43Z")
4000 is way more members than I’ll ever have time to get to know. I’m not worried at all. ---
**Author:** ![samclem](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@samclem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/samclem)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2017, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-elephant-in-the-room-4063-active-members/788139/15 "2017-06-05T00:08:19Z")
> [@steatopygia](#): > > Just an observation, but here are some very random statistics. > I used Wayback to check “active members” on the SDMB main page. I don’t think that the “active members” feature of vBulletin has always been enabled, so the first number I can find is from… > > 5/23/2011 11,167 active members > > 9/1/2013, 6289 > 9/28/2015, 5410 > 2/20/2017, 4489 > 6/4/2017, 4063 Thanks. I used our search for active members and came up with 2016 5-19 5,051 2012-10/22 6,864 5/23/2011 8.307 2010 5,836 2002 3,500(logged in in 30 days, not 60 days) ---
**Author:** ![steatopygia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steatopygia/32/3132_2.png) [@steatopygia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steatopygia)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2017, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-elephant-in-the-room-4063-active-members/788139/16 "2017-06-05T00:21:27Z")
Looks like my 2011 number was inaccurate. Still… I ask for two reasons. The only other forum I have ever been active on, Epicski, shut down last month. Second, I lurked for years, I didn’t join until I became semi-retired. The board used to be active 24/7. Now posting slows very noticeably during US overnight hours. Not complaints, just observations. ---
**Author:** ![panache45](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/panache45/32/64_2.png) [@panache45](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/panache45)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2017, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-elephant-in-the-room-4063-active-members/788139/17 "2017-06-05T00:53:54Z")
It’s not the number of members that has declined, it’s the overall quality. ---
**Author:** ![samclem](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@samclem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/samclem)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2017, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-elephant-in-the-room-4063-active-members/788139/18 "2017-06-05T01:12:27Z")
> [@steatopygia](#): > > Second, I lurked for years, I didn’t join until I became semi-retired. The board used to be active 24/7. Now posting slows very noticeably during US overnight hours. > > Not complaints, just observations. I don’t think that’s true. I click on “New Posts” when I log on about 7 AM EDT. I logged off about 10PM the night before. There are 140 or so new posts. I log out at 8:30 AM EDT in the morning, go to work, and log back in at about 6 PM at night. 300+ new threads. So, the Board has twice as many posts in about 10+ hours USA daytime. Not surprising given that it’s a USA-centric/populated Board. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2017, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-elephant-in-the-room-4063-active-members/788139/19 "2017-06-05T01:14:59Z")
> [@steatopygia](#): > > Just an observation, but here are some very random statistics. > I used Wayback to check “active members” on the SDMB main page. I don’t think that the “active members” feature of vBulletin has always been enabled, so the first number I can find is from… > > 5/23/2011, 11,167 active members > > 9/1/2013, 6289 > 9/28/2015, 5410 > 2/20/2017, 4489 > 6/4/2017, 4063 Hmm. Even allowing for the discrepancy vs **samclem** ’s numbers the trend is pretty clear. We have about 8 years left to live if the decline is linear. But it’ll probably pick up speed somewhere along the way. There is some minimum critical mass and once we fall below that threshold the collapse will probably be quick. So 4 to 6 years is more realistic unless something changes one way or the other. OTOH, even if this place dies prematurely in 2019, it lasted a heck of a lot longer than Myspace did. Having identified a (almost certainly real) problem, what can we and TPTB do about it? Be nicer to noobs? Try to attract a younger hipper demographic? Reduce all posts to 199 characters max? Get rid of the malware spewing ads? Raise the price? It’s sort of funny that the internet is all about information transfer. But information is the one thing folks have found it hard to make money from. As a shopping platform it’s unbeatable. It’s pretty good at delivering entertainment. But folks want their info and their social to be “free”. No matter how much they pay in lost privacy and advertising to get it. ---
**Author:** ![Ambivalid](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/a5b964/32.png) [@Ambivalid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ambivalid)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2017, 1:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-elephant-in-the-room-4063-active-members/788139/20 "2017-06-05T01:15:42Z")
There may be 4000 members but 95% of the posts are made by a very small number of people. 100 maybe? [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-elephant-in-the-room-4063-active-members/788139.md?page=2)