Hmm. Even allowing for the discrepancy vs samclem’s numbers the trend is pretty clear.
We have about 8 years left to live if the decline is linear. But it’ll probably pick up speed somewhere along the way. There is some minimum critical mass and once we fall below that threshold the collapse will probably be quick.
So 4 to 6 years is more realistic unless something changes one way or the other. OTOH, even if this place dies prematurely in 2019, it lasted a heck of a lot longer than Myspace did.
Having identified a (almost certainly real) problem, what can we and TPTB do about it? Be nicer to noobs? Try to attract a younger hipper demographic? Reduce all posts to 199 characters max? Get rid of the malware spewing ads? Raise the price?
It’s sort of funny that the internet is all about information transfer. But information is the one thing folks have found it hard to make money from. As a shopping platform it’s unbeatable. It’s pretty good at delivering entertainment. But folks want their info and their social to be “free”. No matter how much they pay in lost privacy and advertising to get it.