# The end of oil is around the corner, what next? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [July 26, 2015, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-oil-is-around-the-corner-what-next/726256 "2015-07-26T20:03:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2015, 7:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-oil-is-around-the-corner-what-next/726256/61 "2015-11-03T07:21:26Z")
> [@tooldtocare](#): > > You are not the first poster to complain about the (:- > > It is intended to mean, here’s looking at you > > If it offends you I will quite using it in this thread > > (:- I’m not offended and I’m not complaining. Use it or not; in my opinion, which you are free to happily ignore, it doesn’t add anything useful to your messages. You agree you were wrong about the ‘no discoveries’ thing, right? ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2015, 7:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-oil-is-around-the-corner-what-next/726256/62 "2015-11-03T07:34:10Z")
Really, the end of oil will not be a matter of there being no more in the ground. It will be a market collapse where instability in the price will drive down demand to the point that it will no longer be cost-effective to explore because the risk-to-PROI ratio will be too high. Even now, producers [are not producing because the price is too low](http://trc.taboola.com/bloomberg/log/3/available). ---
**Author:** ![Gary\_Kumquat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/4491bb/32.png) [@Gary\_Kumquat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gary_Kumquat)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2015, 7:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-oil-is-around-the-corner-what-next/726256/63 "2015-11-03T07:56:46Z")
> [@Mangosteen](#): > > I have a small stream that borders my 8 acres north of Hilo on the Big Island. (200 inches of rain a year.) > > I had a mini hydro electric system installed in the stream. Between it and the solar panels on my power shed, I have more electricity than I need. > > I think more people should look into this option for their homes. Many people live near streams and no dams are required. Out of interest, what mini hydro system did you go for, and how have you found it for reliability. ---
**Author:** ![Gary\_Kumquat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/4491bb/32.png) [@Gary\_Kumquat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gary_Kumquat)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2015, 7:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-oil-is-around-the-corner-what-next/726256/64 "2015-11-03T07:59:42Z")
> [@tooldtocare](#): > > hydraulic fracturing is scraping the bottom of the barrel, no pun intended. You’d be as well arguing that geosteering is scraping the bottom of the barrel. It’s a complete non sequitur. It’s just another method of exploiting a reservoir, which in this case allows for viable production from a previously non-viable formation. Could you advise which malthusian doom site you’re getting your info from? It makes it a lot easier to debunk if we start at the source. ---
**Author:** ![tooldtocare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e19adc/32.png) [@tooldtocare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tooldtocare)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2015, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-oil-is-around-the-corner-what-next/726256/65 "2015-11-07T01:04:04Z")
> [@Gary\_Kumquat](#): > > Could you advise which malthusian doom site you’re getting your info from? It makes it a lot easier to debunk if we start at the source. I’m getting my data from scientific facts with links to support them and then just reporting those facts here. You on the other hand have proven your superior intellect with the use of the English language but added nada, zip to the topic at hand. No animosity intended or implied. ---
**Author:** ![tooldtocare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e19adc/32.png) [@tooldtocare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tooldtocare)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2015, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-oil-is-around-the-corner-what-next/726256/66 "2015-11-07T01:17:02Z")
\*\*Another non-fossil fuel that only needs greater production \*\* \*\*Bio Diesel \*\* **Biodiesel refers to a vegetable oil** - or animal fat-based diesel fuel consisting of long-chain alkyl(methyl, ethyl, or propyl) esters. Biodiesel is typically made by chemically reacting lipids (e.g., vegetable oil, soybean oil,[1] animal fat (tallow[2][3])) with an alcohol producing fatty acid esters. Biodiesel is meant to be used in standard diesel engines and is thus distinct from the vegetable and waste oils used to fuel converted diesel engines. Biodiesel can be used alone, or blended with petrodiesel in any proportions.[1] Biodiesel blends can also be used as heating oil. The National Biodiesel Board (USA) also has a technical definition of “biodiesel” as a mono-alkyl ester.[4] > **[Biodiesel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biodiesel)** > > Biodiesel is a form of diesel fuel derived from plants or animals and consisting of long-chain fatty acid esters. It is typically made by chemically reacting lipids such as animal fat (tallow), soybean oil, or some other vegetable oil with an alcohol, producing a methyl, ethyl or propyl ester by the process of transesterification. > Unlike the vegetable and waste oils used to fuel converted diesel engines, biodiesel is a drop-in biofuel, meaning it is compatible with existing diesel engines and di... ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2015, 1:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-oil-is-around-the-corner-what-next/726256/67 "2015-11-07T01:26:02Z")
> [@tooldtocare](#): > > I’m getting my data from scientific facts with links to support them and then just reporting those facts here. The point is we don’t believe those facts are true, or you’re not interpreting what you read correctly. The facts as cited elsewhere don’t seem to support what you’re reporting here. It’s customary on the Dope to supply citations for your claims. Regardless if we believe you or not, providing citations makes it possible for people to address the data, without relying on your interpretation or wondering what else was reported. ---
**Author:** ![tooldtocare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e19adc/32.png) [@tooldtocare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tooldtocare)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2015, 1:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-oil-is-around-the-corner-what-next/726256/68 "2015-11-07T01:26:21Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > .,.,.,and oil shales if we can tap these, we will have enough oil for **centuries**. I had a very exaggerated imagination when I was a child, then I grew up to face reality :smack: ---
**Author:** ![tooldtocare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e19adc/32.png) [@tooldtocare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tooldtocare)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2015, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-oil-is-around-the-corner-what-next/726256/69 "2015-11-07T01:35:55Z")
First to state the following: > [@Telemark](#): > > _The point is we don’t believe those facts are true, or you’re not interpreting what you read correctly. The facts as cited elsewhere don’t seem to support what you’re reporting here_. In the above you state “we” as if you talk for everyone and then you go on to state that some facts sited elsewhere don’t support my posted data and links Then you go on to say: > [@Telemark](#): > > _It’s customary on the Dope to supply citations for your claims. Regardless if we believe you or not, providing citations makes it possible for people to address the data, without relying on your interpretation or wondering what else was reported._ If it is customary on the Dope to supply citations for your claims then please do so on your first statement above. some facts sited _elsewhere_ don’t support ??? Thanks 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![tooldtocare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e19adc/32.png) [@tooldtocare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tooldtocare)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2015, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-oil-is-around-the-corner-what-next/726256/70 "2015-11-07T01:40:06Z")
Thanks for spending your time here on this subject but I must leave right now. T’ll be back tomorrow to review your reply Wish the best for you and yours (:- ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2015, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-oil-is-around-the-corner-what-next/726256/71 "2015-11-07T02:05:03Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Ah, another OMG!! Peak Oil! thread. Wonderful. 😛 So, what is your evidence we won’t have enough oil for centuries? You claim fracking is scrapping the bottom of the barrel, but you show no evidence that is the case. You claim we are on the verge of running out, but what evidence do you have that this is the case? BTW, this subject has been debated tons of time on this board. If you want to do a search on Peak Oil in GD you will find literally hundreds of threads. According to my third grade science book, we ran out of oil ten years ago, because at the time we only had 20 years’ worth left. It’s kind of funny, but no matter how much older I get, I can find sources saying that we’ve only got twenty years left. ---
**Author:** ![tooldtocare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e19adc/32.png) [@tooldtocare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tooldtocare)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2015, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-oil-is-around-the-corner-what-next/726256/72 "2015-11-08T17:14:51Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Ah\*, another OMG!! Peak Oil! thread. Wonderful. 😛 So, what is your evidence we won’t have enough oil for centuries?\* Dividing annual consumption into total reserves gives us 44.9 years of oil supply at the current consumption rate. Do the math, metaphoric mumbo jumbo doesn’t fly :smack: ---
**Author:** ![phreesh](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/9fc29f/32.png) [@phreesh](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/phreesh)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2015, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-oil-is-around-the-corner-what-next/726256/73 "2015-11-09T15:23:42Z")
You have a fundamental misunderstanding of what ‘reserves’ are. It’s a confusing topic and I can understand that you are confused. However, it does not change the fact that you don’t understand them. Here’s a link that I guess you didn’t think to visit: > **[Oil and gas reserves and resource quantification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves)** > > Oil and gas reserves denote discovered quantities of crude oil and natural gas (oil or gas fields) that can be profitably produced/recovered from an approved development. Oil and gas reserves tied to approved operational plans filed on the day of reserves reporting are also sensitive to fluctuating global market pricing. The remaining resource estimates (after the reserves have been accounted) are likely sub-commercial and may still be under appraisal with the potential to be technically recov... ‘Reserves’ does not mean all the oil that we know about in the world. It means all the oil that we know about and can currently economically take out of the ground. As time passes, those economics will change and new sources of oil will be discovered. It has been that way for decades. Plus, there is considerable uncertainty of the actual amounts of oil down there. Anyway, to say that we will run out oil with the laughable certainty of a decimal is ridiculous. I will accept your apology in 44.9 years when we still have plenty of oil. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2015, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-oil-is-around-the-corner-what-next/726256/74 "2015-11-09T15:51:26Z")
> [@tooldtocare](#): > > Dividing annual consumption into total reserves gives us 44.9 years of oil supply at the current consumption rate. > > Do the math, metaphoric mumbo jumbo doesn’t fly :smack: You didn’t show your math, however, so no idea where you are getting ‘total reserves’ from…or even what that means to you. If you are talking about proven reserves (which is what I suspect), then even assuming your math is right that 44.9 years would be the baseline…so it would be at LEAST 44.9 years at current consumption (which is actually dropping in many countries, including the US and is down globally right now even in China and India). Doesn’t really matter, though…in less than 44 years we’ll be using something else for our personal transport and we will still have plenty of oil left when that happens. The only real issue is between now and when that happens how much further damage will we do with the additional GHG we release, not whether we will run out of oil in any meaningful way. ---
**Author:** ![tooldtocare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e19adc/32.png) [@tooldtocare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tooldtocare)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2015, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-oil-is-around-the-corner-what-next/726256/75 "2015-11-11T22:33:53Z")
> [@XT](#): > > _Doesn’t really matter, though…in less than 44 years we’ll be using something else for our personal transport and we will still have plenty of oil left when that happens. The only real issue is between now and when that happens how much further damage will we do with the additional GHG we release, not whether we will run out of oil in any meaningful way._ I totally agree with what you said. We (the world) is transitioning away from fossil fuels into an everlasting future of renewable energy sources. What I have enjoyed the most is folks talking about the new innovations being developed that will become our children’s future. I was not proclaiming a doom and gloom future as some here believe :smack: wish you and your the best now and forever more [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-oil-is-around-the-corner-what-next/726256.md?page=3)