# The end of the oil era: The fall of civilization, or just a bump in the road? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 24, 2003, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075 "2003-06-24T17:11:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 20
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2014, 5:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/381 "2014-09-04T05:35:18Z")
> [@ralfy](#): > > Actually, the key issue is whether or not solar power can ensure economic growth. Points from the IEA and data correlating world oil consumption and world GDP growth was presented earlier. If oil is in fact peaking, and renewables cannot realistically be expected to satisfy demand (I am not even going to venture into nuclear, which is at least as beholden to oil as renewables in its construction and fuel refinement stages), where does that leave us? Is the economic growth model based on a resource consumption pattern that is itself unsustainable? Should we reexamine the foundations of our socio-economic system in order to design and establish a system that _is_ reasonably sustainable? Or, as another poster noted, > [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](#): > > … apparently being a lazy bastard is patriotic these days. It is a rather interesting theory. The biggest source of energy in the world is that which we do not use. ---
**Author:** ![ralfy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ralfy/32/600_2.png) [@ralfy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralfy)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2014, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/382 "2014-09-05T14:11:06Z")
Sustainability will be very important given not just peak oil but peak mining, etc. Simon Michaux gives two presentations on these topics found in: Finally, “Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we’re nearing collapse” > [@](#): > > Four decades after the book was published, Limit to Growth’s forecasts have been vindicated by new Australian research. Expect the early stages of global collapse to start appearing soon > **[Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we're nearing collapse | Cathy...](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/limits-to-growth-was-right-new-research-shows-were-nearing-collapse)** > > Graham Turner and Cathy Alexander: Four decades after the book was published, Limit to Growth’s forecasts have been vindicated by new Australian research. Expect the early stages of global collapse to start appearing soon ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2014, 2:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/383 "2014-09-05T14:38:24Z")
How near is near? How soon is soon? I’m not going to wade through 2 YouTube videos, so why don’t you summarize their predictions. That way, when this thread is zombied in 2 or 3 years we can look back and see how accurate (or, IMHO inaccurate) those predictions were when we either do or don’t collapse. Plus, it’s always entertaining to hear the waving of hands explaining why it’s still imminent but just hasn’t happened yet because of a host of excuses. Sort of like always happens when these Peak Oil™ threads are revived or the discussion is… ---
**Author:** ![ralfy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ralfy/32/600_2.png) [@ralfy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralfy)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2014, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/384 "2014-09-08T14:16:49Z")
The predictions for crude oil have been accurate. Read my previous posts for more details. The forecasts for U.S. shale oil and global oil and gas were given by the EIA and the IEA. More details in my previous posts. For oil production per capita, it’s irrelevant to forecast for that because global oil production per capita peaked in 1979. There is, however, a forecast for the size of the global middle class in relation to total population. More details in my previous posts. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2014, 2:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/385 "2014-09-08T14:19:00Z")
Read my previous rebuttal to your previous assertions. 😛 Then read my last post and try giving some solid…or, hell, wild ass guesses…to the questions I actually asked (without referencing your previous posts or drive by links). Thanks in advance. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2014, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/386 "2014-09-09T14:11:51Z")
Sorry it took so long to get back to this. I’m very busy, and I don’t think you can grok any of my cites anyway, which is frustrating and de-motivating. > [@ralfy](#): > > To meet the needs of a growing global middle class, the equivalent of more than one earth will be needed. To ensure that through renewable energy will require incredible levels of energy returns, including a lot needed for shipping tons of raw materials and goods across long distances, mining for ever-deeper resources, etc. What I think you are basically refusing to acknowledge is that these things are going to be done with electricity. Will the transition be seamless? Of course not. But we’ve already got electric transportation, and that technology still has a long way to go to maturity. Mining? Look at [this article](http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/05/30/sunpower-and-first-solar-are-turning-to-miners.aspx) on solar projects powering mining: > [@](#): > > SunPower is building a big 70 MW, $200 million merchant solar power plant in Chile’s mining region. This facility is a big step forward because it will compete head-to- head with traditional fossil fuels without government subsidies. Do you see where it says “without government subsidies”? Please slow down and please, please let those three words sink in. This solar project will power mining operations, and it will provide power that is as cheap or cheaper than other sources. If it provides power for the same price or less as other sources, doesn’t it seem logical that it is giving an equivalent or better Return On Investment? Please don’t refer me to some previous post- answer the question please. > [@](#): > > Feel free to refer to analysis of other real world systems. > > Feel free to refer to performance analysis ratios of systems in Germany. You wouldn’t accept it if I refuted your arguments about Peak Oil by constantly referring to 1960s data and pointing out what a wealth of reserves we have, look, according to 1960, we can probably triple our oil output, maybe better! No, _the entire point_ of your argument is that things change over time. Yet, you resist acknowledging the incredible trajectory of solar system pricing, and resist looking at the present and immanent future of the industry. You need to stop that and get real, **ralfy**. > [@](#): > > Also, I added that multiple factors have to be considered when looking at energy returns in present systems. I don’t see the point in ignoring these factors or that such systems are “old.” As far as I’m concerned, it’s more logical to look at systems that have been operating for several years, especially given a global economy where many countries face lack of infrastructure, funding, etc. **Ralfy** , please look carefully at [this chart](http://cleantechnica.com/2013/05/24/solar-powers-massive-price-drop-graph/). Can you detect the dramatic drop in the price of solar systems represented there? If you can’t, can you tell me which part you aren’t understanding so that I may explain it to you? It matters if a system is old or put together by a failed company such as BP Solar, Suntech Power, Solyndra, etc, because a) those companies couldn’t compete and b) solar power was at about quadruple the cost just 10 years ago. If you want to keep throwing analyses at me of systems that were built 10 years ago, you fail utterly because once again, you are failing to acknowledge the trend in the price of solar panels. You want everyone to accept data about trends in the cost of oil and gas and their production levels, but seem to be oblivious to other trends in the world. Look, getting back to Spain, they also use a lot of concentrated solar. Look at [Why This Solar Technology Is Already Dead:](http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/08/26/why-this-solar-technology-is-already-dead.aspx) > [@](#): > > It’s on this basis that concentrated solar thermal energy was at or near the industry lead in 2008 when these plants were popular and power purchase agreements were around 21 cents per kW-hr, according to the DOE. But today they’re not economically competitive; former leaders like Solar Millennium are going bankrupt, and projects like BrightSource Energy Hidden Hills and Palen projects are cancelled or delayed. You have to grok the trends, rafly. Grid parity is already here in many places, and it is coming everywhere else. You have to get used to it. ---
**Author:** ![ralfy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ralfy/32/600_2.png) [@ralfy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralfy)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/387 "2014-09-11T02:29:20Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Read my previous rebuttal to your previous assertions. 😛 Then read my last post and try giving some solid…or, hell, wild ass guesses…to the questions I actually asked (without referencing your previous posts or drive by links). Thanks in advance. I countered your arguments in previous posts. The evidence came from the EIA and the IEA. Links were provided. ---
**Author:** ![ralfy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ralfy/32/600_2.png) [@ralfy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralfy)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/388 "2014-09-11T02:43:16Z")
> [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](#): > > Sorry it took so long to get back to this. I’m very busy, and I don’t think you can grok any of my cites anyway, which is frustrating and de-motivating. > > What I think you are basically refusing to acknowledge is that these things are going to be done with electricity. Will the transition be seamless? Of course not. But we’ve already got electric transportation, and that technology still has a long way to go to maturity. > > Mining? Look at [this article](http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/05/30/sunpower-and-first-solar-are-turning-to-miners.aspx) on solar projects powering mining: > > Do you see where it says “without government subsidies”? Please slow down and please, please let those three words sink in. This solar project will power mining operations, and it will provide power that is as cheap or cheaper than other sources. If it provides power for the same price or less as other sources, doesn’t it seem logical that it is giving an equivalent or better Return On Investment? Please don’t refer me to some previous post- answer the question please. I don’t remember referring to government subsidies. The global economy needs a 2-pct increase in energy demand. That means the solution you provided will be able to meet that demand increase for only ten years. If the global middle class keeps growing, then even more energy and minerals will be needed. In addition, only 20-percent of daytime electricity will be offset, and when multiple factors take place, then the energy provided decreases. Finally, minerals are becoming increasingly difficult to obtain because lower grades are now being found at increasing depths. That means even more energy will be needed to get them. > [@](#): > > You wouldn’t accept it if I refuted your arguments about Peak Oil by constantly referring to 1960s data and pointing out what a wealth of reserves we have, look, according to 1960, we can probably triple our oil output, maybe better! No, _the entire point_ of your argument is that things change over time. Yet, you resist acknowledging the incredible trajectory of solar system pricing, and resist looking at the present and immanent future of the industry. You need to stop that and get real, **ralfy**. As explained many times in previous messages, peak oil is not about reserves but about production rate, and production rate is driven by EROI. That’s why even with vast reserves of crude oil we are now resorting to U.S. shale oil to meet increasing demand. That’s why capital expenditures for both crude oil and shale are rising in exchange for less new oil produced. That’s why instead of a tripling of oil output we’ve had a tripling of oil prices. That’s why the EIA acknowledges that shale oil will peak after only a few years. > [@](#): > > **Ralfy** , please look carefully at [this chart](http://cleantechnica.com/2013/05/24/solar-powers-massive-price-drop-graph/). Can you detect the dramatic drop in the price of solar systems represented there? If you can’t, can you tell me which part you aren’t understanding so that I may explain it to you? > > It matters if a system is old or put together by a failed company such as BP Solar, Suntech Power, Solyndra, etc, because a) those companies couldn’t compete and b) solar power was at about quadruple the cost just 10 years ago. If you want to keep throwing analyses at me of systems that were built 10 years ago, you fail utterly because once again, you are failing to acknowledge the trend in the price of solar panels. > > You want everyone to accept data about trends in the cost of oil and gas and their production levels, but seem to be oblivious to other trends in the world. Look, getting back to Spain, they also use a lot of concentrated solar. Look at [Why This Solar Technology Is Already Dead:](http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/08/26/why-this-solar-technology-is-already-dead.aspx) > > You have to grok the trends, rafly. Grid parity is already here in many places, and it is coming everywhere else. You have to get used to it. As explained previously, energy returns are ultimately about energy, not prices. That’s because if there is anything we can create easily, it’s credit: “Top Derivatives Expert Estimates Size of the Global Derivatives Market at $1,200 Trillion Dollars … 20 Times Larger than the Global Economy” [http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/05/top-derivatives-expert-finally-gives-a-credible-estimate-of-the-size-of-the-global-derivatives-market.html](http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/05/top-derivatives-expert-finally-gives-a-credible-estimate-of-the-size-of-the-global-derivatives-market.html) But the same cannot be said for energy returns vs. energy demand from a global economy. Finally, we need to look at the performance of systems that have been running for years. Detail on that can be found in my previous posts regarding systems currently running in Spain. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 6:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/389 "2014-09-11T06:14:33Z")
IOW, you are going to ignore all progress in the solar industry to focus on 10-year-old systems in Spain installed by industry-trailing, bankrupt companies using outdated technology. You’re going to ignore that the trends in fossil fuels are for ever-more-expensive energy at ever-lower ROIs while the trends in alternatives, solar in particular, are toward ever-cheaper energy (cheaper even than fossil fuels) at ever-increasing ROIs. Got it. We’re all doomed. Cherry picking wins every time. Congrats. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/390 "2014-09-11T14:00:51Z")
> [@ralfy](#): > > I countered your arguments in previous posts. The evidence came from the EIA and the IEA. Links were provided. And I countered your counters with counters of my own which countered previous posts of yours that directed me to view even more previous posts. In fact, it’s counters all the way down. They are like turtles that way. Why keep bumping this thread to just say, essentially (and to paraphrase), ‘go back and read what I wrote earlier’? If you feel you’ve made your case (you haven’t) then leave it at that. If you have anything NEW to add, feel free. Oh, and the question I asked YOU to answer (not drive by link too, not ‘go back and read what I wrote earlier’) was: [QUOTE=XT] How near is near? How soon is soon? I’m not going to wade through 2 YouTube videos, so why don’t you summarize their predictions. That way, when this thread is zombied in 2 or 3 years we can look back and see how accurate (or, IMHO inaccurate) those predictions were when we either do or don’t collapse. Plus, it’s always entertaining to hear the waving of hands explaining why it’s still imminent but just hasn’t happened yet because of a host of excuses. Sort of like always happens when these Peak Oil™ threads are revived or the discussion is… [/QUOTE] So…now ‘near is near’? How ‘soon is soon’? When will all these dire predictions of yours start panning out? In 5 years? 10? 100? Sooner? Later? ---
**Author:** ![ralfy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ralfy/32/600_2.png) [@ralfy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralfy)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2014, 5:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/391 "2014-09-13T05:32:59Z")
> [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](#): > > IOW, you are going to ignore all progress in the solar industry to focus on 10-year-old systems in Spain installed by industry-trailing, bankrupt companies using outdated technology. You’re going to ignore that the trends in fossil fuels are for ever-more-expensive energy at ever-lower ROIs while the trends in alternatives, solar in particular, are toward ever-cheaper energy (cheaper even than fossil fuels) at ever-increasing ROIs. Got it. We’re all doomed. Cherry picking wins every time. Congrats. I’m not ignoring such progress. What I am doing is addressing the topic thread. That is, can we safely assume that companies going bankrupt, updated technology not implemented immediately, and many other factors that affect civilization won’t take place, such that energy returns for various sources will be so high that they will meet not only declining energy returns from oil but also incredible increases in energy demand? If I did that, then I’d be cherry-picking. My assumption is the topic is about industrial civilization. That requires incredible inputs in not only energy (and not just any type of energy but those that provide petrochemicals) but material resources, and much of manufacturing, food production, and transport worldwide are heavily dependent on fossil fuels. In addition, most of the countries that make up that civilization are developing, which means they do not have sufficient funds to implemented advanced technology immediately or easily. At the same time, they have growing middle classes which need consumer goods and services as early as possible. (That’s why oil consumption, sales of cars, construction materials, consumer goods, etc., are rising globally.) They and the present middle classes plus businesses that rely on more sales of goods and services as part of capitalist systems, governments and military forces that expect more tax revenues and defense spending, and banks and financiers that expect not only to extend increasing credit but receive more returns on investment and lending, are not willing to wait for a full transition to renewable energy. They want that plus “business as usual.” Given that, how do ideal models of solar panel performance make up for the multiple factors that will affect systems when they are operating under conditions I just described? Shouldn’t the situation of Spain, a country that has far more funds that most countries worldwide, be considered? How much regulation and cooperation between economies do you think has to take place so that the global economy can be retooled to use renewable energy plus ensure “business as usual”? And if that is not possible in the short term (recall that the EIA argues that shale oil will peak after only a few years, and we we need lots of oil not just to maintain the current global economy but to create surplus energy to produce alternatives) what are the consequences? Are the 2008 crash, which led to over $30 trillion worldwide vaporized, and resulted in an on-going global recession, a tripling in oil prices, reports on chronic unemployment in many countries, and increasing social unrest in various regions, indicators of such consequences? ---
**Author:** ![ralfy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ralfy/32/600_2.png) [@ralfy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralfy)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2014, 5:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/392 "2014-09-13T05:39:43Z")
> [@XT](#): > > And I countered your counters with counters of my own which countered previous posts of yours that directed me to view even more previous posts. In fact, it’s counters all the way down. They are like turtles that way. > > Why keep bumping this thread to just say, essentially (and to paraphrase), ‘go back and read what I wrote earlier’? If you feel you’ve made your case (you haven’t) then leave it at that. If you have anything NEW to add, feel free. > > Oh, and the question I asked YOU to answer (not drive by link too, not ‘go back and read what I wrote earlier’) was: > > So…now ‘near is near’? How ‘soon is soon’? When will all these dire predictions of yours start panning out? In 5 years? 10? 100? Sooner? Later? No, you did not counter any of my arguments. As for predictions, you’re too late, as they’ve already taken place. To recap, Hubbert predicted in 1976 that crude oil production would peak in 1995 + 10 years. In 2010, the IEA confirmed that production peaked in 2006. EIA data until last year confirms this. In addition, discoveries peaked in the mid-'60s and global production per capita peaked in 1979. Finally, I have been posting new points. For example, have you seen the one regarding capital expenditures? ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2014, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/393 "2014-09-13T15:10:02Z")
> [@ralfy](#): > > I’m not ignoring such progress. The FUCKING HELL you aren’t. Either that or you can’t read. I am going to walk away from this for a week or so. I am just too frustrated with trying to reason with a broken record. I wonder if that has been expressed in any previous posts… ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2014, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/394 "2014-09-13T15:47:19Z")
[QUOTE=ralfy] No, you did not counter any of my arguments. [/QUOTE] I’ll leave it up to others to decide that. To me, drive by links and exhortations to go back and read said links you posted earlier do not an argument make, but that’s just me. > [@](#): > > As for predictions, you’re too late, as they’ve already taken place. Well then, when this thread is revived in a couple of years I guess we should be into the collapse by then, right? Or maybe the thread will never be revived, since we are already in the collapse and it’s just a matter of time. 😛 > [@](#): > > To recap, Hubbert predicted in 1976 that crude oil production would peak in 1995 + 10 years. In 2010, the IEA confirmed that production peaked in 2006. EIA data until last year confirms this. And later they waffled on this prediction and now aren’t so firm. Yes, we went over this literally pages ago. But let’s pretend you are right, and oil has in fact peaked. What happens next, in your view? Please, none of this horseshit about the global middle class, blah blah blah…what’s your prediction of what happens in the US? I mean, if oil peaked in 2006…well, that was 8 YEARS ago. I’m not seeing an imminent collapse or really even a major bump in the road. While I won’t say the US economy is booming right now, it’s certainly pretty strong, and out European brethren and sistren seem to have gotten their shit back together as well, at least averting the collapse of the EU for not. China’s economy is strengthening as well, and so is Japan’s. Canada’s is at an all time high. Even Russia seems to be feeling froggy enough to butt heads with the Europeans and NATO over the Ukraine. So, oil peaks 8 years ago and here we are… Oh, the price of gasoline at the pump at the station I generally go to has dropped to $3.05/gallon, from a high this summer of $3.45/gallon, and I’m guessing it will be back below $3/gallon sometime in the next month or so. > [@](#): > > Finally, I have been posting new points. For example, have you seen the one regarding capital expenditures? Indeed, I read them when you posted them before as well. And I’ve seen posters attempt to discuss it with you as well. Since I’m not as well versed in that aspect I have nothing to really add there. In fact, I really have only limited interest in this thread at all, since this has all been done before. What I really want is for you to go on record with some prediction so when this thread is zombied in several years by a new round of Peak Oil™ gloom and doom that people can look back and see them and judge for themselves. Because as has been the case every other time when this silly discussion has reared it’s ugly head, peak oil is a reality and it’s just a bump in the road, and Peak Oil™ is a load of horseshit…just as much today as it was 5 years ago, or 10, or 15, when it was brought up before. ---
**Author:** ![ralfy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ralfy/32/600_2.png) [@ralfy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralfy)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2014, 11:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/395 "2014-09-14T11:59:12Z")
> [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](#): > > The FUCKING HELL you aren’t. Either that or you can’t read. > > I am going to walk away from this for a week or so. I am just too frustrated with trying to reason with a broken record. I wonder if that has been expressed in any previous posts… No, I’m not. Even the Raugei paper which I referred to earlier discusses such technology. The catch is that the industrial civilization referred to in the topic thread brings in factors that lower energy returns. And don’t forget energy quantity. ---
**Author:** ![ralfy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ralfy/32/600_2.png) [@ralfy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralfy)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2014, 12:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/396 "2014-09-14T12:15:04Z")
> [@XT](#): > > I’ll leave it up to others to decide that. To me, drive by links and exhortations to go back and read said links you posted earlier do not an argument make, but that’s just me. No, none of the links I provide are “drive by” but evidence of my arguments. I will not repost them. Please use the search feature of the thread to view them. > [@](#): > > Well then, when this thread is revived in a couple of years I guess we should be into the collapse by then, right? Or maybe the thread will never be revived, since we are already in the collapse and it’s just a matter of time. 😛 That’s right. > [@](#): > > And later they waffled on this prediction and now aren’t so firm. Yes, we went over this literally pages ago. But let’s pretend you are right, and oil has in fact peaked. What happens next, in your view? Please, none of this horseshit about the global middle class, blah blah blah…what’s your prediction of what happens in the US? I mean, if oil peaked in 2006…well, that was 8 YEARS ago. I’m not seeing an imminent collapse or really even a major bump in the road. While I won’t say the US economy is booming right now, it’s certainly pretty strong, and out European brethren and sistren seem to have gotten their shit back together as well, at least averting the collapse of the EU for not. China’s economy is strengthening as well, and so is Japan’s. Canada’s is at an all time high. Even Russia seems to be feeling froggy enough to butt heads with the Europeans and NATO over the Ukraine. So, oil peaks 8 years ago and here we are… Consider capital expenditures and prices. Read my earlier posts about that for details. BTW, what amounts to a “boom” is essentially increased credit creation. Recall the reason why the U.S. economy crashed in 2008. > [@](#): > > Oh, the price of gasoline at the pump at the station I generally go to has dropped to $3.05/gallon, from a high this summer of $3.45/gallon, and I’m guessing it will be back below $3/gallon sometime in the next month or so. Prices at the pump go up and down, and usually because of lower demand due to economic problems. The IEA reported on that earlier: [http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-11/iea-cuts-oil-demand-estimates-as-saudi-exports-drop-to-2011-low.html](http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-11/iea-cuts-oil-demand-estimates-as-saudi-exports-drop-to-2011-low.html) Apparently, this is the best we have in terms of economic “recovery.” > [@](#): > > Indeed, I read them when you posted them before as well. And I’ve seen posters attempt to discuss it with you as well. Since I’m not as well versed in that aspect I have nothing to really add there. In fact, I really have only limited interest in this thread at all, since this has all been done before. What I really want is for you to go on record with some prediction so when this thread is zombied in several years by a new round of Peak Oil™ gloom and doom that people can look back and see them and judge for themselves. Because as has been the case every other time when this silly discussion has reared it’s ugly head, peak oil is a reality and it’s just a bump in the road, and Peak Oil™ is a load of horseshit…just as much today as it was 5 years ago, or 10, or 15, when it was brought up before. The only way to prove this is to show that arguments raised more than eight years ago will take place. That is, oil prices will drop to $30, crude oil production will ramp up to 100 Mb/d, and unconventional oil production will become irrelevant. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2014, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/397 "2014-09-14T17:32:33Z")
[QUOTE=ralfy] That’s right. [/QUOTE] When the thread is revived or the next one comes out in a year or two and we still haven’t collapsed, it will be fun to see what you say then…assuming you are even still around. > [@](#): > > Consider capital expenditures and prices. Read my earlier posts about that for details. I disagree now and disagreed then with your conclusions. See my earlier posts or posts in earlier threads on this same subject for details. > [@](#): > > BTW, what amounts to a “boom” is essentially increased credit creation. Recall the reason why the U.S. economy crashed in 2008. I disagree with your assertion here. See my earlier posts and earlier threads on the economy for details. > [@](#): > > Prices at the pump go up and down, and usually because of lower demand due to economic problems. The IEA reported on that earlier: Did you read the article in your link? > [@](#): > > raq’s production fell last month to the lowest level since January as bad weather disrupted loadings from the south of the country, declining by 60,000 barrels a day to 3.1 million day, according to the IEA. Libyan output recovered by 110,000 barrels a day to 530,000 a day. > > “While festering conflicts in Iraq and Libya show no sign of abating, their effect on global oil market balances and prices remains muted amid weakening oil demand growth and plentiful supply,” the IEA said. > [@](#): > > The IEA boosted estimates for non-OPEC supply this year and next by 100,000 barrels a day. Supply from non-OPEC producers, led by the U.S., Canada and Brazil will increase by 1.3 million barrels a day next year to 57.6 million a day. > [@](#): > > Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, have unlocked supplies in shale formations in North Dakota, Texas and other U.S. states, reducing the need for overseas imports. Thanks for the article though. > [@](#): > > Apparently, this is the best we have in terms of economic "recovery. Works for me. > [@](#): > > The only way to prove this is to show that arguments raised more than eight years ago will take place. That is, oil prices will drop to $30, crude oil production will ramp up to 100 Mb/d, and unconventional oil production will become irrelevant. Except this is a strawman. No one…NO ONE…has said that oil will drop to $30/barrel again. If you actually addressed others points instead of drive by links and exhortations to go back and read your links from earlier plus tangential or irrelevant posts about the global middle class and your loopy ideas about how the economy works you’d be a lot more interesting a poster to debate with. At any rate, I think I’ve wrung all of the fun out of this thread I can. I’ll just wait and see if the world collapses in the next year or two, shall I? 😛 ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2014, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/398 "2014-09-14T20:54:51Z")
> [@ralfy](#): > > The only way to prove this is to show that arguments raised more than eight years ago will take place. That is, oil prices will drop to $30, crude oil production will ramp up to 100 Mb/d, and unconventional oil production will become irrelevant. I think you forgot that this thread is itself 11 years old. Back in [post 131](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=17302738&postcount=131) and [post 137](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=17302998&postcount=137) I did a review, 11 years later, of the predictions made by “your side”. There is no positive correlation between their predictions and what actually happened. In addition, a number of the 2003-era sites linked-to by supporters of your position (especially those run by Matthew Simmons, now deceased) have reversed their position re: peak oil. On the other hand, I don’t recall a citation, nor have I found one, of anybody in this thread making the above-quoted claims. Perhaps you could helpfully provide me the links to those posts? (Also, note that I didn’t just say “I did a review of the predictions and you can find it earlier in this thread”, I said “here’s my review” _and provided the hyperlinks_. If you’re going to refer to citations made earlier, please supply hyperlinks - they’re one of the basic building-blocks of the WWW and should be used when needed. 🙂 ) ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2014, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/399 "2014-09-15T00:30:15Z")
> [@ralfy](#): > > No, I’m not. You absolutely are. My proof is your insistence on only viewing developments in solar power through the lens of Spain, when 1) there are something like 192 other countries in the world, 2) Spain’s systems were installed largely by failed companies using technology that is not considered cost-effective today and 3) most of Spain’s systems were installed 10+ years ago. Your utter inability to discuss any solar system or development outside of Spain exposes your inability to meaningfully discuss solar power in the context of Peak Oil, or anything else for that matter. Point 3 is especially important. To chain your data to, say, 2004 is to ignore [Swanson’s Law:](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swanson's_law) > [@](#): > > Swanson’s Law is an observation that the price of solar photovoltaic modules tends to drop 20 percent for every doubling of **cumulative** shipped volume…Effectively, costs halve about every 3 years… Crystalline silicon photovoltaic cell prices have fallen from $76 per watt in 1977 to less than $0.40 per watt in 2014, lending support to the law. Can you see why Spain’s results are irrelevant to the present and future of the solar industry? Or are you going to tell me to read your prior links, an expression of your generalized attachment to the past? Again, if the projections come true (and they have to date), the solar industry will grow to 400GW of annual shipped capacity. That means we can expect the cost of solar to halve, halve, and halve again, until the panels cost mere pennies per watt, all by 2020 or so. It’s a game-changer. The present and future of this industry are what is relevant, and no amount of referencing Spain changes that. ---
**Author:** ![Precambrianmollusc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/precambrianmollusc/32/63_2.png) [@Precambrianmollusc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Precambrianmollusc)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2014, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/400 "2014-09-15T17:17:15Z")
I know I am going to regret returning to this thread. So as the world ends and US shale oil production falls into the abyss and civilization teters on the edge of… but no wait > **[US Boosts 2015 Oil Forecast As Shale Powers Push To 10 MMbpd](https://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/134920/US_Boosts_2015_Oil_Forecast_As_Shale_Powers_Push_To_10_MMbpd)** > > The US government jacked up its forecast for oil production next year by 250,000 barrels per day as the boom in shale oil drilling continues to confound expectations of slower growth. some notes from the article “The U.S. government on Tuesday jacked up its forecast for oil production next year by 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) as the boom in shale oil drilling continues to confound expectations of slower growth.” “Rising monthly crude oil production, which will approach 10 million barrels a day in late 2015, will help cut U.S. fuel imports next year to just 21 percent of domestic demand, the lowest level since 1968,” EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski said Of note; this is crude production, who knew that shale oil was also crude, well part from everyone who doesn’t want to make a peak oil case by discounting it out of production figures. ( I think I got my double negatives right there) But there is more > **[IEA: US Shale Squeezing Out Saudi Oil Imports, Boosting Gasoline Exports](https://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/134973/IEA_US_Shale_Squeezing_Out_Saudi_Oil_Imports_Boosting_Gasoline_Exports)** > > North America's shale oil boom has started to squeeze Saudi Arabian oil out of the US market in the same way it did with West African crude, IEA says. “In recent years, surging light tight oil production has backed out U.S. imports of West African crude, which are now moving to Asia,” the IEA said in a monthly report. “Saudi exports seem to be showing the beginning of a similar shift,” it said, estimating that Saudi exports have likely run below 7 million barrels per day for the last four months, their lowest level since September 2011.” “In coming years… U.S. light distillate exports will reach increasingly far-flung markets,” said the IEA, which estimates that Canada and the United States could have a surplus of naphtha and gasoline of around 1.3 million barrels per day by 2019. So US crude oil production rising. Some abstract comments have been made alluding to the quality of the tight liquids, the only known issue with tight shale liquids is that it contains more light end content which makes it better for fuels than other crudes. It does have some processing challenges , resulting from the higher paraffin and wax contents and tends to have a bit more solids in it. [http://www.hydrocarbonprocessing.com/Article/3223989/Innovative-solutions-for-processing-shale-oils.html](http://www.hydrocarbonprocessing.com/Article/3223989/Innovative-solutions-for-processing-shale-oils.html) “The quality of the finished fuels from refining shale oils has changed significantly. As the shale oils have higher light-ends content, one benefit is increased production of naphtha for gasoline, and stable diesel and jet distillates. These increased volumes can boost refinery margins. However, due to the chemical nature of these shale oil feeds, several challenges can be encountered.” So if Ralfy is worried about the growing middle class all needing transportation via gasoline powered cars , or al the global shipping, he should rest easy knowing the shale oils / tight liquids/crude oil being produced in the US has higher not lower output of gasoline and diesel. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075.md?page=19) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075.md?page=21)