# The end of the oil era: The fall of civilization, or just a bump in the road? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 24, 2003, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075 "2003-06-24T17:11:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 24
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2014, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/461 "2014-10-28T02:38:57Z")
Just to let you know, [crazy predictions](http://www.businessinsider.com/dennis-gartman-sees-oil-collapsing-2014-10) aren’t limited only to the Peak Oilers side. 🙂 $10/barrel? I want what he’s smoking… ---
**Author:** ![Precambrianmollusc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/precambrianmollusc/32/63_2.png) [@Precambrianmollusc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Precambrianmollusc)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2014, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/462 "2014-12-04T02:42:09Z")
At the risk of awakening a zombie that should stay as dead as the idea of peak oil , there has been some discussion of how much oil cost to produce. The link attached has some cool graphs on breakeven price for some of the world big oil production projects > **[Here Are The Breakeven Oil Prices For Every Drilling Project In The World](https://www.businessinsider.com/citi-breakeven-oil-production-prices-2014-11)** > > Oil projects can still break even. For now. Some good info there . ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2014, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/463 "2014-12-04T02:46:45Z")
> [@Precambrianmollusc](#): > > as dead as the idea of peak oil What does this mean? Surely you don’t dispute that the all-time oil production graph has to have a peak? The stuff isn’t infinite. ---
**Author:** ![Precambrianmollusc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/precambrianmollusc/32/63_2.png) [@Precambrianmollusc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Precambrianmollusc)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2014, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/464 "2014-12-04T03:02:07Z")
Agree it is limited , however we do keep finding new new resources and the world continues to improve in usage efficiency and alternate (additional?) energy sources. I tend to equate " peak oil" with " omg to world is about to end". So may I adjust my somewhat flippant comment to be " as dead as the idea that changes in oil production rates and costs will lead to the end of civilization "? ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2014, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/465 "2014-12-04T03:06:25Z")
Let’s assume that oil has run out and solar, nuclear etc hasn’t had time to catch up to fill the gap. How difficult _would_ it be to return to a world like in 1700 or 1800? Those guys were used to living like that, but what would the learning curve be like for modern-day man? ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2014, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/466 "2014-12-04T16:44:25Z")
> [@Peremensoe](#): > > What does this mean? Surely you don’t dispute that the all-time oil production graph has to have a peak? The stuff isn’t infinite. It’s not that there is a peak to the production curve… most graphs have a “peak” - peak population, peak movie grosses, peak uranium production, that night that I was drunker than any time in my life, etc. So, “peak oil” (small letters) is something that will inevitably occur or may have occurred or will occur 40 years in the future or whatever, is inherent within the fact that production occurs over time and is dependent upon variables other than mere supply. What precambrianmollusc is referencing is “Peak Oil” (cap letters), the belief that civilization will collapse without ever-increasing amounts of oil being produced, that there are no substitutions (either technological or economic or resource), that the decline of oil production (both _in toto_ and _per capita_) will **inevitably** cause a lowering standard of living, leading to civil unrest, leading to an even lower standard of living, leading to more civil unrest, etc etc to the point of the collapse of modern industrial civilization. Point out that this thesis isn’t proven in real world examples and this is ignored. For example, the US consumed[18.8 million barrels of oil daily in 1978](http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/perspectives.cfm) (click on the Excel chart to the right of the page), a figure it didn’t exceed until 1998 and matches the [2013 figures](http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=33&t=6). Has the US been collapsing since 1978? Not in the world I live in. Mention alternatives or substitutions and they are ignored or worse, argued using 10+ year old data (Ralfy’s insistence on using Spain’s decade+ old experiment in solar power being a prime example.) Mention basic economics (for example, the higher the price of oil the more oil there is to be extracted) and it is ignored or completely misunderstood. Mention technological advances such as hybrid vehicles, improved mileage rates, non-petroleum based lubricants, etc, and these are denied as pipe dreams, incapable of solving the problem. Hell, even computer-driven cars will cut down on oil use as you won’t have impatient assholes revving their engines at stop lights and then tearing out of the lane like a bat out of hell. This is what he meant by “Peak Oil”, not production peaks. ---
**Author:** ![tooldtocare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e19adc/32.png) [@tooldtocare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tooldtocare)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2014, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/467 "2014-12-14T00:09:37Z")
_Energy information Administration Official Energy Statistics from the US government_ [http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/forecasting.html](http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/forecasting.html) The above report indicates that the US will be using primarily oil as our main energy source through 2030. _The world’s total declared reserves are 1,317,400,000,000 barrels (January 2007)._ > **[Oil and gas reserves and resource quantification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves)** > > Oil and gas reserves denote discovered quantities of crude oil and natural gas (oil or gas fields) that can be profitably produced/recovered from an approved development. Oil and gas reserves tied to approved operational plans filed on the day of reserves reporting are also sensitive to fluctuating global market pricing. The remaining resource estimates (after the reserves have been accounted) are likely sub-commercial and may still be under appraisal with the potential to be technically recov... _World oil consumption 2005 is 80,290,000 barrels per day or 29,305,850,000 per year_ [https://www.cia.gov/library/publication](https://www.cia.gov/library/publication) … 4rank.html Dividing annual consumption into total reserves gives us ??? years of oil supply at the current consumption rate. That was twelve (12) years ago, we are not changing our habits and this spells doom for us all. Do you have any suggestions–? Your grandchildren will see this end And Then Again we could put our heads together and come up with a solution. One suggestion could be; If we combined all the known atomic stuff to power electric generators wouldn’t that be the final solution for our energy needs\> ? Just asking ---
**Author:** ![tooldtocare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e19adc/32.png) [@tooldtocare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tooldtocare)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2014, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/468 "2014-12-14T00:12:07Z")
I think batteries is another way to store and use the energy we need what say you-? ---
**Author:** ![tooldtocare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e19adc/32.png) [@tooldtocare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tooldtocare)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2014, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/469 "2014-12-14T00:17:59Z")
One more question: Did it take more energy to refine the uranium used for atomic bombs than the energy released by the atomic bomb-? Just asking ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2014, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/470 "2014-12-14T17:15:46Z")
> [@tooldtocare](#): > > _Energy information Administration Official Energy Statistics from the US government_ > > [http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/forecasting.html](http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/forecasting.html) The EIA forecasts 2015 WTI crude prices to be $94.56. You’re gonna need a new cite. ---
**Author:** ![ralfy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ralfy/32/600_2.png) [@ralfy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralfy)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2015, 12:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/471 "2015-05-31T12:51:30Z")
> [@Precambrianmollusc](#): > > At the risk of awakening a zombie that should stay as dead as the idea of peak oil , there has been some discussion of how much oil cost to produce. The link attached has some cool graphs on breakeven price for some of the world big oil production projects > > [http://uk.businessinsider.com/citi-breakeven-oil-production-prices-2014-11](http://uk.businessinsider.com/citi-breakeven-oil-production-prices-2014-11) > > Some good info there . The irony is that what you presented supports peak oil. That is, higher production costs and resorting to shale oil. Meanwhile, > **[US oil rig count falls](https://www.businessinsider.com/baker-hughes-rig-count-may-29-2015-5)** > > Last week's rig count was the first sign of a major shift, according to Goldman. ---
**Author:** ![ralfy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ralfy/32/600_2.png) [@ralfy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralfy)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2015, 12:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/472 "2015-05-31T12:57:08Z")
> [@Precambrianmollusc](#): > > Agree it is limited , however we do keep finding new new resources and the world continues to improve in usage efficiency and alternate (additional?) energy sources. I tend to equate " peak oil" with " omg to world is about to end". So may I adjust my somewhat flippant comment to be " as dead as the idea that changes in oil production rates and costs will lead to the end of civilization "? The problem isn’t finding new resources but the cost of getting them. The irony is that the article you shared actually proves peak oil and shows that there is no improvement in efficiency at all. The fact that we are now resorting to shale oil, and can only do at higher prices, is the most significant proof of that. ---
**Author:** ![ralfy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ralfy/32/600_2.png) [@ralfy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralfy)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2015, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/473 "2015-05-31T13:05:25Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > It’s not that there is a peak to the production curve… most graphs have a “peak” - peak population, peak movie grosses, peak uranium production, that night that I was drunker than any time in my life, etc. So, “peak oil” (small letters) is something that will inevitably occur or may have occurred or will occur 40 years in the future or whatever, is inherent within the fact that production occurs over time and is dependent upon variables other than mere supply. Too late. Conventional production peaked back in 2005. Per capita global production peaked in 1979. Total oil and gas production will not peak only given conditions explained in my previous posts. That is highly unlikely. > [@](#): > > What precambrianmollusc is referencing is “Peak Oil” (cap letters), the belief that civilization will collapse without ever-increasing amounts of oil being produced, that there are no substitutions (either technological or economic or resource), that the decline of oil production (both _in toto_ and _per capita_) will **inevitably** cause a lowering standard of living, leading to civil unrest, leading to an even lower standard of living, leading to more civil unrest, etc etc to the point of the collapse of modern industrial civilization. This might help, and it brings in more than just oil production: > **[Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we're nearing collapse | Cathy...](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/limits-to-growth-was-right-new-research-shows-were-nearing-collapse)** > > Graham Turner and Cathy Alexander: Four decades after the book was published, Limit to Growth’s forecasts have been vindicated by new Australian research. Expect the early stages of global collapse to start appearing soon > [@](#): > > Point out that this thesis isn’t proven in real world examples and this is ignored. For example, the US consumed[18.8 million barrels of oil daily in 1978](http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/perspectives.cfm) (click on the Excel chart to the right of the page), a figure it didn’t exceed until 1998 and matches the [2013 figures](http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=33&t=6). Has the US been collapsing since 1978? Not in the world I live in. Of course, and that’s because of > **[Petrodollar recycling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrodollar)** > > Petrodollar recycling is the international spending or investment of a country's revenues from petroleum exports ("petrodollars"). It generally refers to the phenomenon of major petroleum-exporting states, mainly the OPEC members plus Russia and Norway, earning more money from the export of crude oil than they could efficiently invest in their own economies. The resulting global interdependencies and financial flows, from oil producers back to oil consumers, can reach a scale of hundreds of Th... > [@](#): > > Mention alternatives or substitutions and they are ignored or worse, argued using 10+ year old data (Ralfy’s insistence on using Spain’s decade+ old experiment in solar power being a prime example.) As shown in my previous posts, the results presented are not ten years old. And Spain is a very good example, unless one assumes that much of the global economy, which consists of many countries much poorer than Spain, can come up with more advanced systems. So much for that fantasy. > [@](#): > > Mention basic economics (for example, the higher the price of oil the more oil there is to be extracted) and it is ignored or completely misunderstood. Except that even with a tripling of oil prices conventional production barely rose, and the world resorted to shale oil. So much for basic economics. > [@](#): > > Mention technological advances such as hybrid vehicles, improved mileage rates, non-petroleum based lubricants, etc, and these are denied as pipe dreams, incapable of solving the problem. Hell, even computer-driven cars will cut down on oil use as you won’t have impatient assholes revving their engines at stop lights and then tearing out of the lane like a bat out of hell. Except that in global capitalist systems, efficiency leads to more consumption. So much for that theory. > [@](#): > > This is what he meant by “Peak Oil”, not production peaks. Peak oil refers to production peaking: > **[Peak oil](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil)** > > Peak oil is the point when global oil production reaches its maximum rate, after which it will begin to decline irreversibly.\[need quotation to verify\] The main concern is that global transportation relies heavily on gasoline and diesel. Transitioning to electric vehicles, biofuels, or more efficient transport (like trains and waterways) could help reduce oil demand. > Peak oil relates closely to oil depletion; while petroleum reserves are finite, the key issue is the economic viability of extr... ---
**Author:** ![ralfy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ralfy/32/600_2.png) [@ralfy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralfy)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2015, 1:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/474 "2015-05-31T13:10:23Z")
> [@tooldtocare](#): > > _Energy information Administration Official Energy Statistics from the US government_ > > [http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/forecasting.html](http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/forecasting.html) > > The above report indicates that the US will be using primarily oil as our main energy source through 2030. > > _The world’s total declared reserves are 1,317,400,000,000 barrels (January 2007)._ > [Oil and gas reserves and resource quantification - Wikipedia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves) > > _World oil consumption 2005 is 80,290,000 barrels per day or 29,305,850,000 per year_ > [https://www.cia.gov/library/publication](https://www.cia.gov/library/publication) … 4rank.html > > Dividing annual consumption into total reserves gives us ??? years of oil supply at the current consumption rate. > That was twelve (12) years ago, we are not changing our habits and this spells doom for us all. > > Do you have any suggestions–? > > Your grandchildren will see this end > > And Then Again we could put our heads together and come up with a solution. > One suggestion could be; If we combined all the known atomic stuff to power electric generators wouldn’t that be the final solution for our energy needs\> ? > > Just asking It’s best to look at the cost of extracting oil instead of looking at reserves. That’s based on the assumption that not all oil can be extracted at the same energy cost (which means prices have to go up) but the global economy has a threshold for oil price (which means prices have to go down), while the same global economy can only be sustained through increasing amounts of cheap energy and material resources. Otherwise, limits to growth take place: > **[Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we're nearing collapse | Cathy...](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/limits-to-growth-was-right-new-research-shows-were-nearing-collapse)** > > Graham Turner and Cathy Alexander: Four decades after the book was published, Limit to Growth’s forecasts have been vindicated by new Australian research. Expect the early stages of global collapse to start appearing soon Given such, using various energy sources is inevitable. Maintaining the same industrialized civilization is highly unlikely. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2015, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/475 "2015-05-31T15:10:59Z")
> [@ralfy](#): > > The irony is that what you presented supports peak oil. That is, higher production costs and resorting to shale oil. > > Meanwhile, > > [Baker Hughes Rig Count, May 29 - Business Insider](http://www.businessinsider.com/baker-hughes-rig-count-may-29-2015-5) Ralfy, falling rig counts for shale drilling are a direct result of increases in conventional production in OPEC countries. It isn’t as if the oil beneath those idled rigs will never be drilled. On the contrary, they represent a huge amount of oil that can be pumped on short notice should prices rebound, see [here](http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-06/introducing-fracklog-the-new-fangled-oil-storage-system-energy). > [@](#): > > From North Dakota to Texas, there are more than 3,000 wells that have been drilled but not tapped, based on estimates from Wood Mackenzie Ltd. and RBC Capital Markets LLC. Waiting gives producers such as Apache Corp. and EOG Resources Inc. a better chance of receiving a higher price. It could also delay a recovery by attracting more supply every time prices rise. There isn’t a supply crunch. These rigs are being idled because of a _glut_. > [@](#): > > As shown in my previous posts, the results presented are not ten years old. And Spain is a very good example, unless one assumes that much of the global economy, which consists of many countries much poorer than Spain, can come up with more advanced systems. So much for that fantasy. Ralfy, it is slightly ridiculous to revive a zombie thread and base your claims on “my previous posts”. Why don’t you provide some fresh data to show that your Spain solar data is NOT 10 years old? Because I say it is (BP Solar, headquartered in Madrid and who installed much of Spain’s capacity, existed from 1981-2011, see below where solar prices have gone since the end of BP solar). Put that in the context of [Top Chinese Manufacturers Will Produce Solar Panels for 42 Cents per Watt in 2015](http://www.solarreviews.com/news/top-chinese-manufacturers-will-produce-solar-panels-for-42-cents-per-watt-in-2015/) For your convenience, here is a chart summarizing the data. These are the all-in per-watt costs of installed solar systems over time: 2009…$1.29 2010…$1.08 2011…$0.90 2012…$0.59 2013…$0.48 2014…$0.47 2015…$0.42 Prices circa 2003, when Spain was installing the bulk of their systems, were still higher than 2009 prices; prices in the future are projected to fall still further. Can’t you see that the system costs for Spain 10+ years ago simply don’t belong in the same conversation as the cost of systems today? It isn’t clear how I could walk you through it any more carefully, but look at one more chart, [projected savings for switching to solar systems in the United States.](http://costofsolar.com/management/uploads/2013/06/How-Much-Does-Solar-Power-Cost.png) The obvious conclusion is that solar is set to crowd out other forms of power generation because of its current and growing cost advantage. ‘Poor countries’ don’t develop their own systems from scratch, but rather buy them from international suppliers in China, the US, and elsewhere, _for these prices_. ---
**Author:** ![Habeed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a587f6/32.png) [@Habeed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Habeed)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2015, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/476 "2015-05-31T16:22:52Z")
Note : those costs are the costs of the raw panels. Inverters are about $0.50/watt as of 5/31/2015 (I just checked 10 minutes ago on certain sites). Installation hardware also costs you, per panel. And, realistically, labor also adds a significant chunk of the cost. For rural locations where very large solar arrays can be constructed, the labor and mounting hardware can be a lot cheaper. So, installed cost is still at least 2 bucks a watt. Allegedly, if the actual installed costs (including everything) were less than 1 buck a watt, solar would beat everything else, at least for daytime power generation. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2015, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/477 "2015-05-31T21:05:59Z")
> [@Habeed](#): > > Note : those costs are the costs of the raw panels. Ok. Still, my point stands- one can’t compare Spain’s experience with today’s solar market. Costs have dropped dramatically, not to mention that much of Spain’s solar capacity takes the form of large-scale concentrated solar, which hasn’t kept up with photovoltaics on price. > [@](#): > > Allegedly, if the actual installed costs (including everything) were less than 1 buck a watt, solar would beat everything else, at least for daytime power generation. I think if fossil fuels’ externalized costs were factored in, solar would be the leader today. ---
**Author:** ![Habeed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a587f6/32.png) [@Habeed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Habeed)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2015, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/478 "2015-05-31T21:57:05Z")
> [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](#): > > I think if fossil fuels’ externalized costs were factored in, solar would be the leader today. Possibly, yes. Wind might do better because wind has the advantage of blowing at night and so you need less storage if you do massive scale wind deployments, with turbines spread over a large geographic area to minimize the chance of the wind not blowing everywhere. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2015, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/479 "2015-06-01T01:44:18Z")
> [@ralfy](#): > > The irony is that what you presented supports peak oil. That is, higher production costs and resorting to shale oil. > > Meanwhile, > > [Baker Hughes Rig Count, May 29 - Business Insider](http://www.businessinsider.com/baker-hughes-rig-count-may-29-2015-5) Still beating that Peak Oil drum, ehe? 😛 Meanwhile, looking at your link it once again doesn’t say what you seem to think it does. As other posters noted, the reason rigs in west Texas have been idled was do to a [glut of oil on the market by OPEC](http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/13/us-iea-oil-idUSKBN0NY14M20150513). I see you got back into the thread before the end of the world though, so keep us abreast of our imminent doom as we move towards the end of 2015 and into 2016…I’m sure it’s right around the corner…any time now… ---
**Author:** ![Precambrianmollusc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/precambrianmollusc/32/63_2.png) [@Precambrianmollusc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Precambrianmollusc)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2015, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/480 "2015-06-01T03:07:13Z")
> [@ralfy](#): > > The irony is that what you presented supports peak oil. That is, higher production costs and resorting to shale oil. > > Meanwhile, > > [Baker Hughes Rig Count, May 29 - Business Insider](http://www.businessinsider.com/baker-hughes-rig-count-may-29-2015-5) Did you notice on the second graph that all the high priced projects are not shale oil but fall into your bizarre definition of ’ conventional’ oil. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075.md?page=23) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075.md?page=25)