# The end of the oil era: The fall of civilization, or just a bump in the road? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 24, 2003, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075 "2003-06-24T17:11:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2014, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/121 "2014-04-18T16:36:03Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Peak Oil is absolute, indisputable, scientific fact. Hubbard’s calculations were in fact based on the assumption that some deposits were more expensive to exploit than others, and that as the price rises and technology improves, more deposits will be exploited. The question is not whether peak oil will happen; it’s what the consequences will be. If we do a good job transitioning to techs which need less or no oil, the consequences won’t be too bad at all. If we don’t make such a transition, they might be very bad. On the other hand, the same projections are made about every other resource and the same limitations apply. Why people don’t freak out about “peak copper” or “peak platinum”, I have no idea. Hell, there was a time in human history where all our mineral needs could be generated from what was just lying around. Then “all the easy sources” ran out, so we invented this thing called “mining.” The Peak Oil (note the caps) conspiracy theorizing takes a fundamental law that applies to all natural resources and acts like it Something Different that we (humanity) hasn’t faced every day, and implies that liquid oil is the only source of energy that matters and (here’s the kicker) that it is completely irreplaceable with no alternatives available. In the real world, what we’re finding is that the shale reserves are there if we need them, [the cost of solar is now competitive with oil](http://www.businessinsider.com/solar-price-terrordome-chart-2014-4) (a claim that could not be made when this thread was started, btw), and [people are acting](http://www.businessinsider.com/why-america-stopped-driving-2014-2) in ways that have imply massive [reductions in our use of oil](http://www.businessinsider.com/american-public-transit-use-highest-since-1957-2014-3) are oncoming. Even cars that drive themselves will increase fuel efficiency by, I would bet, 10%. So… yeah, this transition to a lower oil-use society _will_ happen, but I’m not worried about some idiotic “collapse” scenario. Substitution effects and better technology will ease the transition as well as the simple fact that _we’ve been discussing and preparing for this eventuality for decades_. It’s not like people just say “oh, look oncoming death. Let’s just sit here.” which is what it would take for the Societal Collapse scenarios to come true. And, as the solar price chart linked earlier shows, like the number of Priuses on the road indicates, and the development of shale and other alternatives show, we haven’t been sitting around doing nothing. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2014, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/122 "2014-04-18T16:43:25Z")
Steam can save the World! (Kudos to Ninja High School & Ben Dunn). Seriously–the Victorians did amazing things with Steam, and we could too. And do it without necessarily toasting the planet. ---
**Author:** ![ralfy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ralfy/32/600_2.png) [@ralfy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralfy)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2014, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/123 "2014-04-18T16:57:18Z")
> [@GreasyJack](#): > > Nope, it’s closer to 20-40:1. Furthermore, the big improvements in technology have largely cancelled out the issues with the oil we’re producing today being “harder” oil-- the overall EROEI has dropped since the 70’s. (Handy chart: [File:EROI - Ratio of Energy Returned on Energy Invested - USA.svg - Wikipedia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:EROI_-_Ratio_of_Energy_Returned_on_Energy_Invested_-_USA.svg) ) > > With oil sands, the EROEI is a lot narrower, but technology and infrastructure has moved it from originally being close to 1:1 to now 5:1 or so. More data on EROI can be seen here: [http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3786](http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3786) An economy like that of the U.S. needs a return of more than 40:1, higher than what most hydrocarbons can provide. This also does not include a growing global middle class which is negating demand destruction in the U.S., EU, and Japan, as seen in the first chart presented here: > **[Peak Oil Demand is Already a Huge Problem](https://ourfiniteworld.com/2013/04/11/peak-oil-demand-is-already-a-huge-problem/)** > > We in the United States, the Euro-zone, and Japan are already past peak oil demand. Oil demand has to do with how much oil we can afford. Many of the developed nations are not able to outbid the de… > [@](#): > > He’s not denying that worldwide production has peaked (or at least plateaued), he’s saying that production is slowing down because there’s less demand due to the availability of alternatives, not due to supply failing to keep up as predicted in the peak oil theory. Crude oil production peaked in 2005 as per EIA data and confirmed by the IEA in 2010. Demand is increasing and is being met by shale oil. In addition, crude oil production is expected to drop, pulling down gains from unconventional production. The latter is also expected to last for only a few more years. Finally, demand may rise significantly due to a growing global middle class. ---
**Author:** ![ralfy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ralfy/32/600_2.png) [@ralfy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralfy)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2014, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/124 "2014-04-18T17:00:17Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > On the other hand, the same projections are made about every other resource and the same limitations apply. Why people don’t freak out about “peak copper” or “peak platinum”, I have no idea. > > Hell, there was a time in human history where all our mineral needs could be generated from what was just lying around. Then “all the easy sources” ran out, so we invented this thing called “mining.” > > The Peak Oil (note the caps) conspiracy theorizing takes a fundamental law that applies to all natural resources and acts like it Something Different that we (humanity) hasn’t faced every day, and implies that liquid oil is the only source of energy that matters and (here’s the kicker) that it is completely irreplaceable with no alternatives available. > > In the real world, what we’re finding is that the shale reserves are there if we need them, [the cost of solar is now competitive with oil](http://www.businessinsider.com/solar-price-terrordome-chart-2014-4) (a claim that could not be made when this thread was started, btw), and [people are acting](http://www.businessinsider.com/why-america-stopped-driving-2014-2) in ways that have imply massive [reductions in our use of oil](http://www.businessinsider.com/american-public-transit-use-highest-since-1957-2014-3) are oncoming. Even cars that drive themselves will increase fuel efficiency by, I would bet, 10%. > > So… yeah, this transition to a lower oil-use society _will_ happen, but I’m not worried about some idiotic “collapse” scenario. Substitution effects and better technology will ease the transition as well as the simple fact that _we’ve been discussing and preparing for this eventuality for decades_. It’s not like people just say “oh, look oncoming death. Let’s just sit here.” which is what it would take for the Societal Collapse scenarios to come true. And, as the solar price chart linked earlier shows, like the number of Priuses on the road indicates, and the development of shale and other alternatives show, we haven’t been sitting around doing nothing. Solar is competitive with oil because the energy returns for oil have dropped. The problem is that we need high energy returns, something that neither can provide. ---
**Author:** ![ralfy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ralfy/32/600_2.png) [@ralfy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralfy)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2014, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/125 "2014-04-18T17:03:19Z")
> [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](#): > > Steam can save the World! > > (Kudos to Ninja High School & Ben Dunn). > > Seriously–the Victorians did amazing things with Steam, and we could too. > > And do it without necessarily toasting the planet. I think we have been doing that for decades through the use of nuclear power, among others. The problem is that we need high energy returns, something which steam cannot provide, not to mention petrochemicals needed for thousands of consumer goods. Given that, we will ultimately be forced to lower resource consumption, and probably to a level similar to that of the Victorians. The catch is that unlike their world, ours has over seven billion people, a degraded ecosystem, lots of armaments, and the threat of global warming. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2014, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/126 "2014-04-18T19:35:47Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > On the other hand, the same projections are made about every other resource and the same limitations apply. Why people don’t freak out about “peak copper” or “peak platinum”, I have no idea. Several factors. First, fossil fuels are a lot more central to the economy than copper or platinum are. It’s a major commodity in energy production, transportation, agriculture, and plastics. A dip in fossil fuels will have consequences across the entire economy. Second, there’s evidence it’s an imminent problem. While some people argue that we have enough oil and natural gas for decades more production at our current rate, their claims are pretty implausible. The better evidence is that production of oil and natural gas are peaking this decade (and may have already done so). Finally, fossil fuels aren’t like copper or platinum. Copper and platinum are basic elements; you might reshape them but they retain their basic character and can potentially be used forever. Petrochemicals are complex molecules and they are changed by the uses we put them through. As M. King Hubbert put it, “You can only use oil once.” ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2014, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/127 "2014-04-18T23:37:41Z")
This thread is over ten years old. Wasn’t the oil supposed to run out by now? ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2014, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/128 "2014-04-18T23:42:47Z")
> [@msmith537](#): > > This thread is over ten years old. Wasn’t the oil supposed to run out by now? The goalposts are solar powered, so they’ll keep moving forever. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/129 "2014-04-19T00:16:06Z")
Nobody, or at least nobody with any sense, was saying that we’d run out of oil. Some people were saying that we’d reach peak oil by now. And in fact, it’s quite possible that we have. Peaks of functions are very hard to identify, when you’re sitting right on top of them. ---
**Author:** ![ralfy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ralfy/32/600_2.png) [@ralfy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralfy)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/130 "2014-04-19T02:40:14Z")
There will always be hundreds of years’ worth of oil and gas underground. The problem is that most of it cannot be accessed because the energy needed to get it is almost as high as the energy that can be derived from what is extracted. Thus, what is eventually extracted is only a fraction of what is estimated to be available. Next, the global economy requires high energy returns, and an growing global middle class requires even higher energy returns and more resources. That’s because oil and many other resources (not just minerals but even fresh water) and a lot of energy are needed to manufacture and transport goods that are much more complex, such as electronic gadgets and hybrid cars. Even various components of renewable energy needed to provide power to these goods plus manufacturing and even food production requires oil in the form of energy and petrochemicals. (Thousands of products and components are made using petrochemicals and are very difficult to replace.) Third, a growing global middle class is necessary in a global capitalist economy because everyone–government that relies on more tax revenues, businesses that want more profits and hence sales, financial institutions that need better returns on their investments each time, and citizens who want promotions, pay raises, better returns on their investment, and a continuation of middle class conveniences–has to sell to an expanding market. Thus, in order for the global economy to remain, more oil and other resources need to be consumed to sustain continuous economic growth. According to the IEA, for this to happen, we will need the equivalent of one Saudi Arabia every seven years. That cannot take place if oil and other resources cannot be increased readily, and that’s what we are seeing right now. Crude oil production peaked in 2005, and we are now resorting to shale oil to meet growing demand. Unfortunately, shale oil has low energy returns and steep decline curves, and is thus expected to last for only a few years. Also, it is expected to meet both a growing demand and an eventual decline in crude oil production. For that to happen, we will need more than one Saudi Arabia every seven years. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/131 "2014-04-19T03:09:13Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > From the website of James Howard Kunstler (author of _The Geography of Nowhere, Home from Nowhere,_ and _The City in Mind_), at [http://www.kunstler.com/mags\_diary7.html:](http://www.kunstler.com/mags_diary7.html:) > [@](#): > > June 3, 2003 > The Association for the Study of Peak Oil threw a major conference last week in Paris. The org is lead by Colin Campbell, retired chief geologist for Shell Oil, and the board members include an impressive roster of geologists who have worked both for Big Oil and acadamia, for instance, Kenneth Deffeyes of Princeton, retired exploration manager of France’s giant Total company Jean Laherrere, Pierre-Rene Bauquis, VP of the French Energy Institute (IFP), and others like Matthew Simmons, the Houston-based investment banker specializing in energy companies. > The message emerging from the meeting is that the world may have already entered the unchartered territory of global oil depletion – that is, the downside of “Hubbert’s Curve,” the bell graph first used by Shell Oil geologist M. King Hubbert in 1956 to describe the destiny of the world’s oil supplies. Here are some of the salient points presented (thanks to Michael C. Ruppert reporting for the [Fromthewilderness.com](http://Fromthewilderness.com)). > > – Deffeyes repeated a claim he made in April that, based on production figures for the past three years, the world seems to have passed peak oil production in 2000. [Nope. Crude oil production is at its highest level ever](http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?product=oil&graph=production) > [@](#): > > – The once-hoped-for Caspian Sea bonanza has proved to be a major bust. British Petroleum and Exxon/Mobil have already pulled out. [Not a bust at all.](http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=12911) Production has increased from 1.1 million barrels a day to 2.5 million currently. > [@](#): > > – Reserve figures have been uniformly overstated for decades by both major oil companies and national governments – for tax advantages in the case of US companies and to evade export quota regulations in the case of OPEC members. Saudi Arabia’s reserves may be substantially lower than the 250 billion barrels claimed, and in fact Saudi Arabia may be producing now at 100 percent capacity, meaning they may now be passing peak. [Wrong again](http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=sa#pet). Saudi production in 1980: 9.9 million barrels/day. Saudi production in 2012: 9.832 million barrels/day > [@](#): > > – Oliver Appert, Chairman of the IFP, declared there are no more major significant reserves to be discovered and that the world oil depletion rate is between five and ten per cent per year, requiring 60 million barrels a day in new production to meet demand. [Wrong again](http://www.tujobs.com/news/151997-the-10-biggest-oil-discoveries-after-year-2000). Let me quote: > [@](#): > > From 2000-12, 52 giant oil fields (defined here as fields with a natural gas equaling less than 60% of the total reserve) and 68 giant gas fields were discovered throughout the seven regions in the world (Fig. 2). The original 2P reserves in these giants amount to 65.73 billion bbl of oil, 1,039.03 tcf of gas, and 9.72 billion bbl of condensate, i.e. 248.62 Bboe (Table). Of the giant reserves, gas accounts for 69.7%, oil 26.4% and condensate 3.9%. > > Of the 120 giants, one is a megagiant field with a recoverable reserve of 50 Bboe or more and 6 supergiant fields with recoverable reserves of 5 Bboe or more. The seven largest fields are Galkynysh gas field in the Ama-Darya basin with an original 2P reserve of 67.1 Bboe, Kashagan oil field (18.1 Bboe) in the North Caspian basin, Kish 2 gas field in the Arabian basin, Lula (previously known as Tupi), Franco and Libra oil fields in the Santos basin, and Sulige gas field (5.7 Bboe) in the Ordos basin. > [@](#): > > – Auto sales in China jumped 50 percent in 2002 alone. So? > [@](#): > > – Matthew Simmons told the group that the US natural gas supply is near a crisis point. By 2001, with record drilling, there was no increase in supply, and by 2003 production was in serious decline. New Texas gas wells, he said, are in decline an average of 83 percent one year after drilling. “The world has no Plan B,” he said. This one turned out to be so flabbergastingly wrong, I can only assume Mr. Simmons has another career by now. > [@](#): > > –Dutch economist Maarten Van Mourik told the group that deep water drilling would not add significantly to the world’s oil reserve, that it did not make sense economically, and ultimately could only produce five billion barrels – equal to a 60-day world demand at current levels. Van Mourik also made the interesting observation that, “it may not be profitable to slow decline.” [Sigh…](http://www.ogj.com/articles/print/volume-108/issue-41/exploration-development/deepwater-crude-oil-output-how-large.html) Since he made this statement, deep water oil production has tripled from 1.5 million barrels/day to 4.5 million. It has also passed that 5 billion mark quite a while ago, and is blowing past it at the rate of 1.6 billion barrels every year. > [@](#): > > – All speakers addressing the issue stated that no combination of alternative energy sources can replace hydrocarbons, and none even dreamed of will be implemented in time to avert major disruptions in industrial civilization. OK. Well, we see how their track record at this conference has been so far… > [@](#): > > – Dr. Jorg Wind, representing auto giant Daimler / Chrysler told the conference that his company did not view hydrogen as a viable alternative to petroleum-based engines. He stated that fuel cell vehicles would never amount to significant market share. Hydrogen was ruled out as a solution because of intensive costs of production, inherent energy inefficiencies, lack of infrastructure, and practical difficulties such as the extreme cost and difficulty of storage. The Daimler / Chrysler representative dismissed ethanol out of hand as “not energy efficient.” Well, this was right. Hydrogen fuel cells are not a significant market share for vehicles. I do note that they didn’t mention hybrids or electric vehicles… > [@](#): > > – Pierre-Rene Bauquis remarked that commercial production of hydrogen is two to five times the cost of fossil fuels used to produce it. > > – Other French presenters stated that ethanol used in France enjoyed a 300 percent government subsidy. Irrelevant. > [@](#): > > – Physics Professor Kjell Aleklett told the conference that exploiting the Canadian Tar Sands would be a financial and economic disaster, insofar as the amount of natural gas needed to create steam to process the mined sands, as well as the massive amounts of water used and polluted in the process. Well, the “financial and economic disaster” didn’t exactly happen. > [@](#): > > – Chris Skrebowski of the UK’s Institute of Petroleum noted that by 2007 Britain will be in its second year of natural gas imports and its first year of oil imports, having severely depleted its North Sea reserves by that time. And this is true, but the guy was extrapolating from a 20 year trend line. > [@](#): > > Go ahead and draw some conclusions. OK, here are some: 1. These experts were wrong in nearly all their predictions. 2. Worse, they completely missed the shale revolution and the resurgance of American gas and oil production. 3. They also missed the collapse in solar and wind production prices 4. They ignored and/or dismissed standard substitutions 5. They (or the article) focused on the most pie-in-the-sky auto technology (hydrogen cells), claimed it was worthless, and ignored other options. 6. They missed the massive change that America is undergoing regarding driving. But then again, so did the Americans in the Department of Transportation, so you can’t blame them. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/132 "2014-04-19T03:13:14Z")
> [@ralfy](#): > > Thus, in order for the global economy to remain, more oil and other resources need to be consumed to sustain continuous economic growth. According to the IEA, for this to happen, we will need the equivalent of one Saudi Arabia every seven years. > > That cannot take place if oil and other resources cannot be increased readily, and that’s what we are seeing right now. Crude oil production peaked in 2005, and we are now resorting to shale oil to meet growing demand. Unfortunately, shale oil has low energy returns and steep decline curves, and is thus expected to last for only a few years. Also, it is expected to meet both a growing demand and an eventual decline in crude oil production. For that to happen, we will need more than one Saudi Arabia every seven years. The first paragraph isn’t true as even some thought could attest. Simple improvements in efficiency can wring out “1 saudi arabia every 7 years.” Hell, for a historical example look at the US consumption of oil from 1978 to 1998. In 1978, oil consumption hit a level it would _not_ reach again for another 20 years… however, in that time, _while our yearly use of oil remained lower than the amount consumed in 1978, the economy more than doubled in size_. Why is this no longer possible? 😕 The second is flat out wrong. Crude oil production was higher in 2012 than ever, regardless of shale production. ---
**Author:** ![MichaelEmouse](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/michaelemouse/32/101_2.png) [@MichaelEmouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MichaelEmouse)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/133 "2014-04-19T03:16:34Z")
JohnT, “They missed the massive change that America is undergoing regarding driving. But then again, so did the Americans in the Department of Transportation, so you can’t blame them.” What is that change? ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/134 "2014-04-19T03:19:53Z")
(Actually, I just reviewed the numbers. The US _still_ uses less oil per day than we did in 1978, even though our population has grown by 40% and the economy, in real terms, has tripled in size.) ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/135 "2014-04-19T03:22:41Z")
> [@MichaelEmouse](#): > > JohnT, > > “They missed the massive change that America is undergoing regarding driving. But then again, so did the Americans in the Department of Transportation, so you can’t blame them.” > > What is that change? Since 2001 Americans are driving less. > **[Why America Stopped Driving](https://www.businessinsider.com/why-america-stopped-driving-2014-2)** > > Driving is on the decline in the U.S., and it's not because of the economy. The difference in miles over what we would have driven (if historical growth figures were extrapolated to today) and what was driven is almost 1 trillion miles. In other words, we drove 1 trillion miles less over the past 7 years than people were expecting when the OP was written. Assuming 15 miles per gallon, this amounts to over 60 billion barrels of oil that was not consumed and still remain in the ground. Not a single person at that conference thought this could happen… well, not without major societal disruption. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/136 "2014-04-19T03:30:12Z")
Fun with numbers… 60 billion barrels saved by shifting driving habits divided by saudi arabia daily oil production =60b/9.9m =6,060 days of saudi oil production 6,060 days = 16.6 years. Hey, looks like we’re finding that “1 new saudi arabia every 7 years” just by an underreported shift in US driving habits alone! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 6:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/137 "2014-04-19T06:36:15Z")
You know, I love that this thread has been bumped. It’s been fascinating reading. Following are Peak Oil links, listed by **adamant**. These sites were very active in 2003, and I bet they were wild after Katrina. But now? Let’s see how they’re doing in 2014… > [@adamant](#): > > [http://www.hubbertpeak.com/](http://www.hubbertpeak.com/) Very ranty, very “there’s no hope”. Here’s a sample quote: \*"The USA, Saudi Arabia and Russia are competing to see which country can “produce” the most oil. That translates into racing to see which country will reach the bottom of the barrel first. In their frantic race to the bottom, these countries are creating havoc on the ground – destroying aquifers, watersheds, productive land, forests – and on the high seas – even to the point of attempting to drill in the Arctic Ocean where extreme conditions will thwart human arrogance. Reports of production increases can be seen as just more warnings that the race to the finish is accelerating. Sadly those fossil fuelish players have little to show for a Plan B. Reports of profits can be seen as thieves bragging about who got away with the biggest heist. Oil only costs what it takes to steal it from our children’s children’s children. The notion that “they will come up with something to replace oil” is thoughtless and irresponsible. Tell those guys to be careful: they might stub their toes trying to kick the can down the road that far. The physical cliff may be closer than they think."\* Good stuff, especially his citation of a “million” deaths per year from auto accidents (real figure, ~45,000.) The blog had 3 updates for 2013, none so far for 2014, and 9 in 2012. I wouldn’t call the site dead, but it’s on life support. [http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/](http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/) This is hilarious. Matthew Simmons, the guy I said in an earlier post should get another job because of his blown natural gas call in 2003, and a favorite source and cite of _many_ posters here in this very thread back in 2003, has, well… He’s changed his mind. Well, not really. Mr. Simmons passed away in 2010, but the company he founded has veered sharply away from the Peak Oil based projections and is now printing the following quotes in their annual [Energy Conference Recap](http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/content/documents/Simmons_2012_Energy_Conference_Recap_Web.pdf) (2012 cited) \*“I was a peak oiler until about five years ago,” said Irene Rummelhof of Statoil ASA. “What is happening now is amazing.” One of the discussions was entitled: “Deepwater offshore drilling should be a great business, with strong long-term growth prospects and significant barriers to entry. But will pricing ever improve?”\* (Remember the earlier cite that stated that deepwater drilling was a dead-end? ) > **[Yahoo | Mail, Weather, Search, Politics, News, Finance, Sports & Videos](https://www.yahoo.com/)** > > Latest news coverage, email, free stock quotes, live scores and video are just the beginning. Discover more every day at Yahoo! This one has pretty much died, averaging 24 posts a month this year, down from 400-600 posts/month in its heyday. [http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/061203\_simmons.html](http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/061203_simmons.html) More incorrect Simmons. I think this site stopped being updated sometime between 2004 and 2007. > **[카지노 사이트 가이드 - 2025년 인기 온라인 카지노 게임 소개](https://peakoil.net/)** > > 가상의 세계, 온라인 카지노 세상에 오신 것을 환영합니다. 코로나19 창궐 이후 비대면 시장이 커지면서 온라인 카지노 시장도 커지고 있습니다. 본 사이트는 이제 막 입문한 초보자도 쉽게 이해할 수 있도록 다양한 카지노 게임 및 카지노 사이트 비교, 분석을 통해 플레이어가 믿고 I was reading one of their excursions into the Eagle Ford shale area (near where I live) and I had to laugh when I read the following… I could just hear the disappointment in the words and the final defiant “I have to say _something_ negative” words: _“We left the Eagle Ford with mixed feelings. I had expected that all the thousands of wells would have affected the landscape more than they did. Thousands of wind turbines would be far more visible. Having said that, I don’t want to say that a thousand oil pumps is preferable to a thousand wind turbines. However, being on the ground to study and experience the fracking activity is important when one wants to participate in the debate over our future energy supply.”_ “Dammit! The environmental destruction is not as bad as I wanted it, er, feared it would be!” Still active, I think, though the site has a number of broken links in its “link” page. There is a “President’s Message” section that hasn’t been updated since 2007, but some articles have been uploaded as recently as 2012. > **[Penser Bio, Nature et Environnement](https://www.odac-info.org/)** > > Des astuces et des conseils vous seront partagés afin de vous aider à adopter un mode de vie plus responsable. Même à votre niveau, vous avez l’opportunité de faire changer les choses ! _“The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC) is no longer an active organisation. This site remains as an archive.”_ Yeah… I wonder why? ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 8:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/138 "2014-04-19T08:01:41Z")
From the Bakken [wiki](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bakken_formation): > [@](#): > > A research paper by USGS geochemist Leigh Price in 1999 estimated the total amount of oil contained in the Bakken shale ranged from 271 billion to 503 billion barrels (8.00×1010 m3), with a mean of 413 billion barrels (6.57×1010 m3). > [@](#): > > In April 2008, a report issued by the state of North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources estimated that the North Dakota portion of the Bakken contained 167 billion barrels (2.66×1010 m3) of oil in place. > [@](#): > > Estimates of the Bakken’s recovery factor have ranged from as low as 1% — because the Bakken shale has generally low porosity and low permeability, making the oil difficult to extract — to Leigh Price’s estimate of 50% recoverable. Saudi Arabia has ~270 billion barrels of reserves. At the top end of the estimates, the Bakken amounts to about a Saudi Arabia. So there’s (almost) one. ---
**Author:** ![ralfy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ralfy/32/600_2.png) [@ralfy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralfy)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/139 "2014-04-19T14:49:01Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > The first paragraph isn’t true as even some thought could attest. Simple improvements in efficiency can wring out “1 saudi arabia every 7 years.” Hell, for a historical example look at the US consumption of oil from 1978 to 1998. In 1978, oil consumption hit a level it would _not_ reach again for another 20 years… however, in that time, _while our yearly use of oil remained lower than the amount consumed in 1978, the economy more than doubled in size_. Why is this no longer possible? 😕 > > The second is flat out wrong. Crude oil production was higher in 2012 than ever, regardless of shale production. The first paragraph is true. You will find a clear explanation and more details in the IEA Outlook 2010 report: [http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2010/](http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2010/) Also, keep in mind that U.S. \<\> world. For my second point, crude oil production went down. See the second chart using data from the EIA in this page for details: > **[World crude production 2013 without shale oil is back to 2005 levels](http://crudeoilpeak.info/world-crude-production-2013-without-shale-oil-is-back-to-2005-levels)** > > Unnoticed by the mainstream media, US shale oil covers up a recent decline of crude oil production of 1.5 mb/d  in the rest of world (using data up to Oct \[…\] Crude oil production has been in a 73.4 Mb/d plateau since 2005. This proves Hubbert’s claim of a peak in crude oil production after 1995 + 10 years, made in 1976: This also confirms the IEA acknowledgement that crude oil production peaked in 2005-2006: > **[IEA acknowledges peak oil](http://www.resilience.org/stories/2010-11-11/iea-acknowledges-peak-oil/)** > > The IEA's position is summarized in the graph - conventional crude oil production has already peaked in 2006! Suddenly, the subject of impending peak has gone from not worthy of discussion to in the past already! The article refers to the same IEA Outlook 2010 report shared above. ---
**Author:** ![ralfy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ralfy/32/600_2.png) [@ralfy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralfy)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075/140 "2014-04-19T15:16:36Z")
Also, some points on less driving in the U.S.: > **[Why is US Oil Consumption Lower? Better Gasoline Mileage?](https://ourfiniteworld.com/2013/01/31/why-is-us-oil-consumption-lower-better-gasoline-mileage/)** > > United States oil consumption in 2012 will be about 4.7 million barrels a day, or 20%, lower than it would have been, if the pre-2005 trend in oil consumption growth of 1.5% per year had continued.… Thus, less driving due to economic crisis. Finally, in general: > **[Peak Oil Demand is Already a Huge Problem](https://ourfiniteworld.com/2013/04/11/peak-oil-demand-is-already-a-huge-problem/)** > > We in the United States, the Euro-zone, and Japan are already past peak oil demand. Oil demand has to do with how much oil we can afford. Many of the developed nations are not able to outbid the de… That is, less demand due to lack of jobs, etc., for the U.S., EU, and Japan, but increasing consumption for the rest of the world. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-end-of-the-oil-era-the-fall-of-civilization-or-just-a-bump-in-the-road/184075.md?page=8)