Ralfy, falling rig counts for shale drilling are a direct result of increases in conventional production in OPEC countries. It isn’t as if the oil beneath those idled rigs will never be drilled. On the contrary, they represent a huge amount of oil that can be pumped on short notice should prices rebound, see here.
The article proves my argument. Oil prices have to go up.
There’s a supply crunch for obvious reasons: we’re resorting to shale oil. Otherwise, production costs would remain low while conventional production would ramp. The complete opposite took place because of peak oil.
What has been happening for a decade (power output vs. nameplate power) <> what China will do and projections.
Also, Spain <> most of the world (which is poorer).
Spain represents today’s solar market, especially given the fact that most countries are developing economies and are much poorer than Spain.
And the problem isn’t cost in dollars but energy returns. As a recent update from Sci Am shows, they are not very high across the board. A civilization that’s basically industrial and, on top of that, built on global capitalism, requires the opposite.
It is possible for all sources of energy combined to meet the basic needs of the global population, but that will require extensive coordination and cooperation between economies. According to the IEA, it has to take place immediately. What we’ve seen during the past few decades, whether it involves energy concerns or even dealing with global warming, has been at best tepid.
As for meeting the needs of a global capitalist system, that is highly unlikely. More details in my previous posts.
Did you not notice the oil price crash down from 100+ into the 40+ range?
The world GDP has grown ( 3% ish) so we must have been using more oil right? If the world economy grew and we used more oil, yet the price went down, could it possibly be that world supply of oil exceeded world demand?
That would be a glut right?
And as we are here in mid 2015, it would appear;
cash caught up with the companies / private investors who were some what over leveraged , they are going broke and others are buying up the cheap assets
demand for rigs and frac fleets has dropped dramatically , along with the price for those services ( that whole , we got to much supply compared to demand so the price drops, just like the price of oil, thing) so drilling a well just got a whole lot cheaper
there is about 300,000 bopd shale oil capacity shut in right now. These are wells that were drilled, but the operators are waiting for the price to go back up before fracturing them ( at a much reduced price )
oil production has gone up ( conventional or what ever, it is irrelevant) , supply exceeds demand, even in a growing demand situation , price dropped like a brick .
[QUOTE=ralfy]
Not just the Oil Drum but Sci Am and even the IEA. See previous posts for details.
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Back to the ‘See previous posts for details’ schtick? Saw them…they didn’t say what you claim they said.
Re-read it…it still doesn’t say what you think it says.
And this is the problem when your world view is so wrapped up in your thoughts that you can’t look beyond it. You can’t accept facts when they contradict your world view even when they are this obvious.
I’ve read them…yeah, you have.
Was there anything else? Why don’t you post a few more posts with links to stuff that doesn’t say what you think it does, then invite posters to go back and see details from your previous posts. We could keep this thread going a couple more days, then in 6 months we could come back and you could give us an update on how we are right on the edge of disaster again. Rinse and repeat and in 10 or so years you can do it all again.
Did you notice that 22 other commodity indexes crashed, that quantitative easing started unwinding six months earlier, that production costs did not go down, that marginal costs did not go down, that capex is still high, and that there are now concerns over another global financial crisis?
Would you like to connect those to the three points you gave?
When did conventional production go up to meet demand? From what I know, unconventional production has been doing that since 2005:
So much for that glut. Every point given confirms peak oil: conventional production barely rising, shale oil to meet demand, and capex, production costs, and marginal costs rising.
I am not going to repeat what I wrote earlier. Since you already saw them and gave no counter whatsoever, then I will not bother with the rest of your posts.
FWIW, Hubbert said the same thing: we need to replace oil with nuclear and other energy sources.
The catch is that industrial civilization based on free market capitalism needs a lot of energy and material resources, and very likely much more than what available energy sources will allow.
I don’t think this point makes any sense. For example, India is poorer than Spain. India has enormous plans for solar. It works for them- in areas where people don’t have electricity at all, solar can provide power to a local network without having to build out the national grid. It might not be what you’d expect in the West, but it is a step up from the status quo.
Again, it doesn’t matter what country is buying the solar systems. International companies will install them anywhere, for pretty much the same price.
A civilization that considers itself a going concern in the true sense of civilization is going to have to look extremely long-term. In that view, renewables are practically the only game in town. Not a fast enough ROI? Well then invest in improving the tech (or don’t, it is improving on its own), but at the least invest in more of it.
Do what you like. As I’ve pointed out before, people can scroll up and see for themselves. Your points have been countered and they all hinge on your interpretation of the data, which isn’t widely accepted. You spin what groups like the IEA say even when it’s pointed out to you previous (see previous posts on this subject :p) that your interpretation is wrong or that the IEA has changed it’s own tune several times. You are so fixated that Peak Oil™ is happening that you ignore or spin any data you are given to your, such as shale oil and why wells in west Texas have been idled.
It’s the other way round. The point makes sense because if the example is criticized because what Spain is using is outdated, then how can we expect the rest of the world (which is poorer) to spend more to come up with more advanced systems?
Actually, it does, and for painfully obvious reasons, unless we can assume that most countries are as wealthy as Spain.
And that’s just the systems. We’ve not even considered the infrastructure needed to distribute electricity, let alone the energy and material resources needed to manufacture the goods that will use it.
That’s very obvious. The catch is that renewables are not even “the game”. Not even close.
To make matters worse, that same industrial civilization operates in terms of competition, price-driven markets, and financial speculation. In short, expect more of the same problems during the past decade to affect the future: financial crashes, oil price volatility, and the effects of environmental damage and global warming, not to mention conflict over oil and other resources.
Investments in “tech” do not guarantee incredible increases in EROI or even quantity. The fact that we are now resorting to shale oil, cannot ramp up conventional production, and face high production costs, marginal costs, and capex (as Kopits points out, increasing amounts spent for smaller increases in production), attests to that.
Finally, all of these points are seen in my previous posts. I have backed them up with more than enough evidence, and none of it is outdated. You’ve countered none of them.
Since you have me on ignore and all these are more rhetorical questions for other posters not so fixated on their narrative to think about:
[QUOTE=ralfy]
Investments in “tech” do not guarantee incredible increases in EROI or even quantity. The fact that we are now resorting to shale oil, cannot ramp up conventional production, and face high production costs, marginal costs, and capex (as Kopits points out, increasing amounts spent for smaller increases in production), attests to that.
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So, the FACT that OPEC has in fact massively ramped up conventional production, driving the price of oil to very low levels and basically forcing many shale oil producers to temporarily mothball or at least lower production until the price comes back in line means basically nothing to you because your narrative simply won’t allow you to accept the reality we’ve all been living the last year. You’d have been better off waiting until the obvious fact that oil has remained low and that OPEC has ramped up like mad for a while so that someone would think ‘yeah, that ralfy, he’s got some sort of point’. Right now it looks like you are handwaving for all it’s worth. I know, I know…your previous posts tell all and I should go back and look at your tired old arguments that have already been dealt with and your gloom and doom with fresh eyes.
Spain…Spain? Where have I heard about Spain in the news. Couldn’t be about economic crisis that has nothing to do with oil, right?? I just can’t remember…something about PIIGS or some kind of farm animals. To be sure this would have nothing to do with Spain having to ramp back their solar initiatives…
The rest of the world NOT having major financial issues? Not that it really matters that much, since solar is only one technology for generating power, and we always have all of that coal, natural gas and oil, not to mention that nuclear stuff. Oh, but that’s right…we are running out of oil pretty soon now, ehe? Any day now you will be vindicated…just have to wait a bit longer (it’s been since 2003 in THIS thread, but should be any time now)…
Based completely on your narrative about capitalism requiring constant growth. I’m sure your gloomy prediction here will happen any time now…
(I do agree that global warming is a concern and THAT is probably a good prediction on your part…and if you couched your gloom and doom in those terms you would probably have a better case than that we will collapse due to Peak Oil™!!)
In YOUR mind they haven’t been countered. But then, in your mind you’re previous posts have all the keys to finally grasping that we are headed towards Peak Oil™!! Sort of like a 99 year old pushing a walker up hill into a hurricane, I’m sure we’ll get there some day…
Ralfy, you should take XT off of ignore and read his response to this post. It isn’t bad at all. But I’ll take a swing at it too.
I don’t understand why you think poor countries have to develop their own systems from the ground up, and, being poorer than Spain, that means they can only install outdated technology. The reason Spain’s solar systems are outdated is because 1) they were installed 10+ years ago and 2) the advancement of solar technology is like no other industry. It has been advancing by incredible leaps and bounds in our lifetime, such that 10 years is a HUGE deal, unlike coal or gas generation, which are also advancing but at nowhere near the same pace. I’m sure in my previous posts I’ve mentioned something about Swanson’s Law, you should check it out.
India isn’t going to necessarily develop their own systems from scratch. They are going to call up SunEdison, or Canadian Solar, First Solar, SunPower, Yingli Green Tech, Hanergy, or a host of other international companies who, each in their own ways, are installing the latest tech for all their customers. If India places the order, they will get an up-to-date system at today’s prices.
If you’re saying poor countries won’t have the money to fully upgrade their infrastructure, all right. It definitely sucks to be poor, whether you are a person or a country, and crap situations tend to follow. If that isn’t what you mean, maybe you could elaborate for us.
Well, to stick with India as an example, see this
Do you see the dramatic projected increase in India’s solar capacity? You could argue that it won’t be enough, but it doesn’t look like the factors you mention are stopping them.
So you say. Don’t take my word for it, take it from your source of choice, the IEA, from here:
The IEA agrees with me that renewables have plenty of game. Come on around to our side.
I agree that mature capitalism along with population pressures, global warming, international conflicts and other factors are going to create plenty of shitstorms in the future. Sooner or later Peak Oil does in fact have to set in. But that isn’t signaled by our ‘resorting’ to shale oil. We simply didn’t have the technology to extract it before. Now, yes, shale rigs are being idled, but that is because of the global oil glut caused by OPEC. Shale isn’t a single thing, either, as you seem to believe. Some deposits are better than others. The best ones are hugely productive, which is why you see a big drop in rig count (more marginal deposits) without a correspondingly large drop in overall US production, see here. Notice how production kept going up despite the rig count falling off a cliff? That’s because all shale is not equal, not by a long shot.
I’m sorry, the bottom line is that oil supply is just fine while oil demand is slackening. You are correct to point out that the world faces serious challenges, but for the foreseeable future, Peak Oil just ain’t one of 'em.
As for your previous posts, c’mon, this is a zombie thread. Bad form.
