The environmental movement, and its irrational fear of nuclear energy

Actually, this is a much greater problem than you might think! The Western Boobie is often sighted in its natural habitat along secluded Californian beaches hidden from human traffic by being at the base of bluffs and cliffs, ones frequented by skinny dippers. The bluffs and cliffs above, of course, are exposed to the full force of winds off the Pacific, and hence a prime location for windpower generators. Construction of them in this location would destroy the seclusion of those beaches and hence greatly reduce sightings of the Western Boobie, something I’m sure nobody wants! :wink:

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More seriously, Shodan does make an excellent point. If we held coal-power plants to the same high standard as fission plants, they’d be closed down in a minute, while we had a furious argument over what transportation and disposal method was safe enough for the carcinogenic tailings and flyash.

There is a need to assure safety, granted. You’ll notice earlier that I was hot against those permitting contractors building nuke plants, companies operating nuke plants, and those dealing ad interim with spent fuel elements while we finish debating what to do with them more permanently, to do less than sterling work, and decrying the fact that the regulators and inspectors are failing to blow the whistle on those practices. (This is not to indict the companies trying to do quality work, but to say that there are others who don’t, and they bring disrepute on the entire industries.)

But when you’ve reduced the risk potential to a sufficiently low probability, then you’ve done what’s needed to assure safety. The low-probability disaster scenarios need to be looked at, to be sure, and acted on as needed – but not permitted to turn our energy policy catatonic as a result of taking everything into account.

Or else we should end this discussion altogether and turn as one to address a truly serious threat: It’s a statistical certainty that sometime in the next twenty-six million years a “dinosaur-killer” size cosmic body will impact the earth and cause widespread destruction to the ecosystem. And the amount we as a nation are expending to even watch for the problem over a decade is probably lower than the weekly gross revenue of the Chicago Reader.

Before we start worrying about what happens if a violently insane genius breaks out of custody, steals construction euipment, and heads for Yucca Mountain, let’s look at how many people are going to die as a result of brownouts, blackouts, fuel shortages, and so on, while we’re arguing out those low-likelihood scenarios. For me, they’re the bottom line.

Try living without CO2

You guys are being jerked around

  • it is strange, it is like you can’t think

Everyone knows Halliburton is a major no-bid contractor for nuclear plants. They’re just spouting the talking points memos.

Is this a whoosh? If so, you fooled me. If not…cite?

-XT

I’ve made several honest attempts to parse your post #137, with no luck. Whatever thinking skills I have are inadequate to figuring out what point you were trying to make.

A whoosh. The primary contractors would likely be Bechtel and the Shaw Group, although Kellogg, Brown & Root could get a piece of the pie.

And if we were suffering from lack of CO2 instead of an oversupply, your comment might have a point. But we aren’t, so it doesn’t.

If someone is drowning, is it your solution to pour a bucket of water on him ? And if complains, do you say, “Hey, try living without water !” ?

“He,” thanks.

Your inference is not exactly the correct one. My point about about ocean dumping, or unsophisticated and unmonitored desert dumping, was twofold: one, it’s a worst-case scenario (in other words, the chances that we’ll actually behave this way are about nil); and two, even as a worst-case scenario, the envronmental damage would be significantly less than that of continuing to release billions of tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

It happens that our Russian friends have helpfully provided us with living laboratories of this worst-case scenario, in that for decades, they would dump much of their high-level nuclear waste straight into the oceans, primarily in the Arctic. Result? Environmental disaster – but a localized one. The effects are very serious for the people and ecology of those regions, but they don’t affect the entirety of the planet. Increasing atmospheric carbon, on the other hand, is affecting all the world’s oceans by increasing their acidity. Certain classes of animals have begun to feel the strain, and we’re just sort of hoping at this point that marine ecosystems don’t crash in their entirety.

Don’t imagine that I’m cavalier about nuclear waste. It obviously needs to be handled properly. What I’m saying is that you shouldn’t ignore the other side of the equation – the price that we’re currently paying for our fossil-fuel based way of life. If you don’t think it’s staggering, look again.

I had hoped so. Had to check though, as there are some left wing nutballs about loony enough to think that Halliburton would be granted a no bid contract on reactor construction just because of Bush and his buddies. :stuck_out_tongue:

-XT

You make a good point, but it’s worthwhile to concentrate on the low-hanging fruit here: namely, us. We’re one of the world’s worst offenders when it comes to CO2 output per capita, but we’re also a technologically advanced nation capable of creating a successful nuclear program.

We could worry about China and India suddenly becoming significant contributors to atmospheric CO2, but both those countries have enough talent and resources to develop nuclear energy programs. In fact, in China’s case, because the government doesn’t have to bother about what the people think, they could be up and running a lot faster than anyone else.

Sapo, I don’t think I’m sidestepping the point. I understand we have a big problem to solve with our current method of burning fossil fuels. I understand nuclear is an option (that I personally like) and that we need to weigh the risks on both sides to try to minimize the overall danger to the planet and it’s inhabitants. I get all of that. I was responding to SA’s implication that just dumping nuclear waste in a steel drum in a hole or in the ocean would not pose a problem.

I think if you go back and read SA’s words you will see that he is not referring to an accident. This is the second time you’ve brought up accident and this is the second time I will say that is not what is being discussed in SA’s post.

SA is stated that dumping all nuclear waste in steel drums in a hole in the ground or in the ocean is not nearly as big a problem as continued co2 problems.

Remember that if we dumped all nuclear waste in this manner, especially after ramping up nuclear production an order of magnitude (to offset lower usage of fossil fuels), then we would have considerably more waste than we are producing right now. If all countries dump in the proposed manner, that might not be planetary in scale to the degree that global warming is, but it would be so significant that I don’t think it helps the debate at all.

I’m fine discussing the point you are really getting at, which is risks, the likelihood of a nuclear accident, etc., but that is not what SA stated in the post.

If you believe that dumping all of our nuclear waste in the manner SA stated will not have far reaching negative effects, then I guess we can debate that, but it seems like you are not actually agreeing with SA but rather trying to make a different point.

Actually a number of posters (SA and Sam Stone, although to be fair Sam Stone seems to have qualified his use of the word “trivial”) have said the following regarding nuclear:
on fear of: “irrational”
on dealing with waste: “trivial”

I don’t do you?

I will freely admit that quantifying these things is tough, but you have stated twice now that continuing co2 is orders of magnitude worse than risks associated with ramped up usage of nuclear power. Can you tell me what assumptions you are making about short and long term risks? How are you arriving at your numbers?

For me, I factor in the following when I try to analyze it:

  1. The delay in ramped up usage of nuclear power until we have safe storage containers is probably not that long in the grand scheme of things (5 years, 10 years, 15 years?)
  2. Do we have enough operational vitrification facilities in the US? Do we have any operational vitrification facilities in the us?
  3. I’m not confident that leaving the problem for later generations is a good course of action (by burying before we have proper storage containers)
  4. It’s unclear to me how to quantify the effects of nuclear waste vs co2 on human disease/mortality/etc., so it’s very difficult to just say one is worse than the other over all time frames. Therefore I can’t simply discount known negative effects of nuclear power and say “well co2 outweighs those concerns.”

For the record, and to repeat what I said in my previous post, I implied no such thing. I was laying out a worst-case scenario, not expressing a view as to what we should do.

I never got that impression, either. He was trying to offset implied claims that careless handling of waste will lead to the global devastation that many anti-nuclear advocates claim in their scare literature. If a person cracked open a tanker truck full of high-level waste in Times Square, sure it’d be a problem. It would not, however, turn Manhattan into a wasteland (or at least not more of one :D) and this incident would be many many times worse that any likely accident under a good waste management policy. The bigger impact would come from panic than actual pollution.

I have to admit, it doesn’t help if some of us are saying “a good waste management policy is perfectly feasible” and Sal is saying (though truthfully) that even if such a policy wasn’t in place, the outcome wouldn’t be as bad as anti-nuke activists claim.

Well, inshallah, Yucca will be up in running in ten years, in time to handle the current waste supply and even an increased supply if new and widespread reactor construction began immediately. “Grand scheme” is a tricky beast, though, because in the even grander scheme, nothing humans do matter because the sun will eventually leave the main sequence and swell into a red giant. Saying “grand scheme” is a useful way to delay what one can’t otherwise argue against.

If you don’t, build them, preferably concurrent with new reactor construction.

Well, define “proper”. What standards are good enough to qualify as “proper?” Besides, the way things are going, I’d hope future generations will have nanotech-built supermaterials like carbon-60 or something similarly indestructible to reinforce the containers, as well as a space elevator or some similar means to easily remove the waste from Earth entirely. Later generations won’t be helpless.

Well, contrasting childhood deaths from emphysema in urban areas to those in less-polluted rural areas to childhood deaths in all areas from radiation exposure would be a good place to start. Fact is, if you accept that human-caused global warming exists (not everyone does), then what are its effects? More flooding and hurricanes and such? Even Chernobyl at its worst doesn’t equal one really bad hurricane for property damage and loss of life (of course, that depends whose statistics you believe).

I have read your qualifying post and understand your position with respect to the worst case scenario as follows:
“as a worst-case scenario, the envronmental damage would be significantly less than that of continuing to release billions of tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere”

But I still disagree. The environmental damage would be enourmous if that is how we handled our nuclear waste (especially dumping it into the ocean).

If you had some way of showing that your worst case scenario of dumping nuclear waste into the ocean would cause significantly fewer deaths and health problems to humans over the next 500 years than co2, please show it. And if valid, then we could use that in our calculations as to how to proceed.

But if you can’t, then it seems we are left with both worst case scenarios are bad and it’s very difficult to quantify them for comparisons. So I don’t think it’s helping the debate.

Since no one in the US is seriously considering burying our high-level waste or dumping it in the ocean it’s a moot point.

We must not be reading the same post, this is exactly what SA posted:

Nothing about accidents, just the implication that tossing it in the oceans is (as qualified by SA) a significantly smaller problem than continued co2.

“grand scheme” is also a way of saying “I think the merits of waiting for proper storage containers outweigh the gain of ramping up nuclear prior to proper storage technology on the assumption that the technology is not too far in the future (5, 10, 15years?)”

Agreed, they should be built. The OP stated opposition is “irrational”, but the question remains, do we have any vitrification plants in operation in the US? I know the one at Hanford is the first of it’s kind and construction was only started recently with completion years away.

I think the storage container should not leak prior to the waste being at a safe level. If after 400 years it’s back to it’s original level when pulled out of the ground, that seems reasonable.

No they won’t be helpless, but I don’t think it’s a good plan to assume they can correct our problems easily.

This gets into some pretty tough math because so much is speculation on all sides.

If we choose geologically stable sites for long-term nuclear waste storage, I see no reason why we need to worry about a time horizon of millenia; 3-4 centuries would do just fine AFAIAC, so long as we leave our descendants only a few dozen such sites around the world to keep track of.

I’m a big fan of muddling through the current situation, as long as we’re leaving a reasonably limited problem to future generations. Let’s open Yucca Mountain, ship our nuclear waste there, and stop storing it at 103 nuclear reactors around the country.

Then let’s subcontract nuclear plant regulation to the French, who seem to know what they’re doing, and build new nuke plants that are safer than the old ones and produce less waste too. Once we’ve averted the global warming emergency, we can figure out how to deal with the next set of problems, like peak uranium or some such.

“Into the Marianas Trench” != “into the oceans.” He used that, no doubt, as a quick well-known [font size=1][font color=pink](Yeah, for 20 minutes in 1960)[/font][/font] example of a subduction zone. Even better sites could be identified a few hundred miles off the West Coast of the U.S. The waste, like all heavy-element fractions of the subducted crust, gets drawn into the mantle and dispersed dozens of miles underground.

Meanwhile, let me propose a “solution” for debate: The best way to dispose of nuclear waste is to store it in open ponds within the safety perimeters of nuclear power plants, generally within 100 miles of major urban areas and often in areas regularly subject to the potential for major natural-disaster-level storms. If this is not the most acceptable alternative, including over the admitted risks of transporting it, even in vitrified blocks, then we need to find something else to do with it that there’s more of a consensus is more acceptable. Because that’s what not taking action to transport it to and store it at Yucca Mountain, or some other more acceptable alternative, is choosing to do. It’s the default do-nothing option.. The waste is not going to magically disappear. It will continue to sit in those ponds, and the plants that generated it will continue to generate more, unless we do something else with it. Is nuclear waste in Yucca Mountain more dangerous than nuclear waste in Wilmington and Fuquay-Varina, NC, Shoreham and Scriba, NY, and the other nuke-plant locations? If yes, what’s a safer place? If no, then stop throwing roadblocks in the way.

If my hypothetical worst-case scenario is such a stumbling block, let me retract it. After all, as I and others have pointed out, it’s not like anybody is planning to dispose of nuclear waste this way. Continuing to debate as if this were a scenario on the table seems counterproductive at this point.

I think Polycarp’s suggestion is a good one: start with the present and admittedly suboptimal storage practice, and ask if *that * is worse than continuing to release carbon dioxide at our present extravagant rate. I say not. And it goes without saying that a better and more long-term storage solution must be found. I don’t think anyone disputes that.

Nah, sub to the Kanuks. We know what we are doing, and have been at it since WWII.