# The F-16 pilots that were going to ram flight 93. Survivable? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [March 18, 2017, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-f-16-pilots-that-were-going-to-ram-flight-93-survivable/782494 "2017-03-18T18:07:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![SamuelA](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c77e96/32.png) [@SamuelA](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SamuelA)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2017, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-f-16-pilots-that-were-going-to-ram-flight-93-survivable/782494/61 "2017-03-19T23:08:38Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > That last number has a lot to do with the inherent reliability of missiles. I’ve not seen any good unclassified numbers on that. If the warhead goes off near the engine he’s almost certainly down. So if you went into a simulator and programmed it to model the missile, with a physical model that assumes each shrapnel impact weakens the wing spar, which probably has a 300% or more real world load margin. (that is, you’d need to reduce it to less than 1/3 strength to break. Most of the time, in the real world, things survive considerably over their design margin). And you model the effect of loss of thrust, of fires that are suppressed by whatever fire suppression the airliner has, and you assume a 10% of wing control authority vector trying to roll the aircraft. Anyways, in that situation, you think the chance of crashing is “almost certainly”. That there’s a less than 5% chance per simulated mission you’d be able to remain in the air with some control? ---
**Author:** ![clairobscur](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/839c29/32.png) [@clairobscur](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/clairobscur)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2017, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-f-16-pilots-that-were-going-to-ram-flight-93-survivable/782494/62 "2017-03-19T23:29:10Z")
> [@Chimera](#): > > Considering that two passenger airliners had impacted the World Trade Center and one crashed at the Pentagon, there were credible fears of where the last one would hit. White House? US Capital Building? IIRC later statements, it was the capitol. The white house had been rejected during the planning phase for reasons that I can’t remember. ---
**Author:** ![ssgenius](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5ac83/32.png) [@ssgenius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ssgenius)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2017, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-f-16-pilots-that-were-going-to-ram-flight-93-survivable/782494/63 "2017-03-20T00:06:54Z")
> [@clairobscur](#): > > IIRC later statements, it was the capitol. The white house had been rejected during the planning phase for reasons that I can’t remember. Capitol is larger and easier to see from the air. ---
**Author:** ![SamuelA](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c77e96/32.png) [@SamuelA](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SamuelA)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2017, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-f-16-pilots-that-were-going-to-ram-flight-93-survivable/782494/64 "2017-03-20T00:08:37Z")
> [@ssgenius](#): > > Capitol is larger and easier to see from the air. If there really is a secret bunker underneath, there’s a way for the President and some of his staff to survive. I would assume the capital has too many occupants to evacuate. ---
**Author:** ![ssgenius](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5ac83/32.png) [@ssgenius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ssgenius)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2017, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-f-16-pilots-that-were-going-to-ram-flight-93-survivable/782494/65 "2017-03-20T00:12:19Z")
> [@SamuelA](#): > > If there really is a secret bunker underneath, there’s a way for the President and some of his staff to survive. I would assume the capital has too many occupants to evacuate. The bowling alley:D ---
**Author:** ![SamuelA](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c77e96/32.png) [@SamuelA](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SamuelA)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2017, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-f-16-pilots-that-were-going-to-ram-flight-93-survivable/782494/66 "2017-03-20T00:14:02Z")
> [@ssgenius](#): > > The bowling alley:D > **[Presidential Emergency Operations Center](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidential_Emergency_Operations_Center)** > > The Presidential Emergency Operations Center (PEOC, PEE-ock) is a bunker underneath the East Wing of the White House. It serves as a secure shelter and communications center for the president of the United States and others in case of an emergency. > The first White House bunker was built during World War II to protect President Franklin D. Roosevelt in the event of an aerial attack on the national capital of Washington, D.C. > The present-day PEOC space has modern communications equipment incl... During the September 11 attacks, then-Vice President Dick Cheney, Lynne Cheney, Condoleezza Rice, Norman Mineta, Mary Matalin, Lewis “Scooter” Libby, Joshua Bolten, Karen Hughes, Stephen Hadley, David Addington, Secret Service agents and other staff, including a U.S. Army major who was a White House Fellow, were evacuated from their offices in the White House to the PEOC.[2] So they would been fine. Don’t know if anyone was in the Capital building. Apparently the PEOC is no longer secret. (though what amenities it has and whether you need a whole megaton or a mere 50 kilotons to destroy it is obviously still secret) Even if both buildings were evacuated by the time Flight 93 arrived, the Capital building is a juicier target. The White House is kind of a dump - it could use a tear down and rebuild. ---
**Author:** ![ssgenius](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5ac83/32.png) [@ssgenius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ssgenius)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2017, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-f-16-pilots-that-were-going-to-ram-flight-93-survivable/782494/67 "2017-03-20T00:23:52Z")
If you go back and read was Penney had to say about it She, nor Marc though they would survive ramming the plane. They were going to try to eject just before hitting the plane but it was going to be almost impossible to time it correctly so she had resigned to hitting the 757 and then ejecting if she still could. Also, she said that while her and Marc took off right away but there was 2 more fighters getting loaded with missiles that were going to follow them shortly. Like everyone else, she was not sure what was happening initially, They knew that there was at least one more jet that was hijacked and they decided to get in the air and without any ammunition, they decided on their own initiative to ram the plane. Before they (or the 2 planes with missiles) could get there, the plane had crashed ---
**Author:** ![drewder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/57b2e6/32.png) [@drewder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewder)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2017, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-f-16-pilots-that-were-going-to-ram-flight-93-survivable/782494/68 "2017-03-20T00:31:21Z")
> [@SamuelA](#): > > If there really is a secret bunker underneath, there’s a way for the President and some of his staff to survive. I would assume the capital has too many occupants to evacuate. I wouldn’t assume that. There are tunnels all throughout DC including the capitol which are there, in part, to protect the government from a nuclear attack. ---
**Author:** ![drewder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/57b2e6/32.png) [@drewder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewder)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2017, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-f-16-pilots-that-were-going-to-ram-flight-93-survivable/782494/69 "2017-03-20T00:47:05Z")
I wonder if the flight computers have been since programed with that particular mission. It shouldn’t be too hard. ---
**Author:** ![Urbanredneck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ea5d25/32.png) [@Urbanredneck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urbanredneck)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2017, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-f-16-pilots-that-were-going-to-ram-flight-93-survivable/782494/70 "2017-03-20T01:00:38Z")
Now I read somewhere that they didnt even bother to do pre-flight they just jumped in and flew off. They knew it meant ramming and basically said “I’ll go for the cockpit, you go for the tail”. More interesting, one of the pilots was a woman. Even more, her father was an airline pilot and she wasnt sure if he could very well be on the very craft they were targeting. ---
**Author:** ![Quintas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/48db29/32.png) [@Quintas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quintas)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2017, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-f-16-pilots-that-were-going-to-ram-flight-93-survivable/782494/71 "2017-03-20T01:13:05Z")
> [@ssgenius](#): > > If you go back and read was Penney had to say about it > > She, nor Marc though they would survive ramming the plane. They were going to try to eject just before hitting the plane but it was going to be almost impossible to time it correctly so she had resigned to hitting the 757 and then ejecting if she still could. Was this a thing where you’d get court martialed for refusing? I understand that military people have to come to terms with the fact that their job may mean their death, but a dangerous assignment seems far different from “hey honey, I have 15 seconds before I get in this jet and go commit suicide, tell the kids I love them”. ---
**Author:** ![ssgenius](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5ac83/32.png) [@ssgenius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ssgenius)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2017, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-f-16-pilots-that-were-going-to-ram-flight-93-survivable/782494/72 "2017-03-20T01:28:24Z")
Remember It was on their own initiative that they were going to ram that plane. Ms Penney’s commanding officer, Marc was flying with her. His commander, just said to get up and in the air and as their planes were already fueled and ready to go, they went. No, I don’t think that they would be court martialed, if they refused that order and I suspect that if there was a order for this, it would be more of an optional suggestion rather than a direct order. Also, the pilots would be the best judge of what was happening and it would be left to their discretion. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2017, 2:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-f-16-pilots-that-were-going-to-ram-flight-93-survivable/782494/73 "2017-03-20T02:07:48Z")
> [@drewder](#): > > I wonder if the flight computers have been since programed with that particular mission. It shouldn’t be too hard. What are you talking about? Or more accurately, what do you think you’re talking about? The fire control system knows the envelope of the missiles and the ballistics of the gun. The radar knows the range, azimuth and rates of the target. They provide useful cues to help the pilot know when he’s in range or not and to align for successful attack. Maneuvering is the pilot’s job. As is locating the target in the first place. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2017, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-f-16-pilots-that-were-going-to-ram-flight-93-survivable/782494/74 "2017-03-20T02:21:48Z")
> [@SamuelA](#): > > So if you went into a simulator and programmed it to model the missile, with a physical model that assumes each shrapnel impact weakens the wing spar, which probably has a 300% or more real world load margin. (that is, you’d need to reduce it to less than 1/3 strength to break. Most of the time, in the real world, things survive considerably over their design margin). And you model the effect of loss of thrust, of fires that are suppressed by whatever fire suppression the airliner has, and you assume a 10% of wing control authority vector trying to roll the aircraft. > > Anyways, in that situation, you think the chance of crashing is “almost certainly”. That there’s a less than 5% chance per simulated mission you’d be able to remain in the air with some control? I’m thinking that the combination of loss of some hydraulics, loss of thrust, a large fire fed by holed fuel tanks, and somewhat fouled up flight controls will be enough to render it uncontrollable within a couple minutes. Airliner fire suppression is limited to problems inside the engine cowl but outside the normal core air path. Burning fuel trailing from holes in the wing will soon enough start to eat the skin of the ailerons and trailing edge flaps. Not too much of that has to fall off before the wing aerodynamics fall apart. Meantime the other side is undamaged. Any loss of lift on the damaged side is additive to the roll into the dead engine occasioned by yaw from asymmetric thrust. Also, if the thing is flown by real pilots it’ll potentially last longer than if it’s flown by hijackers. Real pilots have some hope of understanding the bigger picture, managing the failures as best they can per procedures, and ad libbing as necessary. Guys with experience only with Cessnas and Microsoft flight simulator, not so much. Failing a spar in straight and level flight is, as I said, pretty unlikely. Not impossible, but unlikely. Consider some damage, the airplane getting squirrely, and scared non-pilots driving. In all it’d be easy enough to have them over-G the damaged airplane at, WAG, just 2G. Or just roll into 90 degrees of bank. Once that happens, the nose falls through quickly and then they’ll overspeed and Mach tuck or start shedding parts they really need. Things can go to Hell in a surprising hurry once even an undamaged big jet is in an unusual attitude. Add in some unpredictable damage and the margins get very, very thin. They’re simultaneously remarkably resilient to the threats they’re designed against and remarkably brittle to the ones they aren’t. ---
**Author:** ![Xema](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/9de053/32.png) [@Xema](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Xema)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2017, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-f-16-pilots-that-were-going-to-ram-flight-93-survivable/782494/75 "2017-03-21T00:49:12Z")
> [@Quintas](#): > > a dangerous assignment seems far different from “hey honey, I have 15 seconds before I get in this jet and go commit suicide, tell the kids I love them”. Yes. And this was a dangerous assignment, not a suicide mission. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-f-16-pilots-that-were-going-to-ram-flight-93-survivable/782494.md?page=3)